|
|
|
Friday, June 06, 2003
Breaking down the picks (Guest Column)Today, you get a break from me (don't get too excited, I'll be back first thing Monday).Earlier this week, the Minnesota Twins drafted 50 players in the Major League Baseball amateur draft. They took 30 pitchers and 20 position players. And, in looking at the list of players that are the newest members of my favorite organization, I realized I know absolutely nothing about any of them. But I want to. I want to know about these guys. I want to know who might be a star in five years. I want to know which "sleepers" the Twins may have found that other teams have overlooked. I want to know what to expect from this group of young players that are the future of the Minnesota Twins. So, in my effort to learn more about the Twins' 2003 draft class, I went to ProspectReport.com and read a bunch of their awesome draft coverage. But I still needed to know more, so I contacted ProspectReport.com writer Derek Welvang and asked if he'd be willing to write a guest column to quench the thirst for information that I and other Twins fans I know have about the draft. The time right before and right after the draft is very hectic for the guys at ProspectReport.com, but Derek found time in his busy schedule to write up an in-depth look at the Twins' first 11 selections. I really enjoyed reading it and I know you all will too. So, without further ado, I present to you Derek Welvang of ProspectReport.com's guest column on the Minnesota Twins' 2003 draft... By Derek Welvang www.ProspectReport.com DWelvang@ProspectReport.com Oakland has gotten a lot of attention of late for its draft strategy, as profiled in Michael Lewis’ book Moneyball. While there are several reasons to believe that that can be a winning strategy, the Minnesota Twins have followed a very different tact, with considerable success. They focus on high school position players, often ones with already advanced hitting skills (like Michael Cuddyer, Michael Restovich, Justin Morneau), and a mix of pitchers, whether polished (Aaron Heilman and Jesse Crain) or raw (Scott Tyler and Brent Hoard). It’s riskier than what Oakland does, but successes, when they come, are more likely to be athletic than those of, uh, the Athletics. Also, the Twins have done well in developing players, increasing the degree to which an organization should prefer tools over performance. They’ve also shown an irritating habit of not signing some of their best picks. Sometimes, that’s expected - they lost out on stud catcher Jeff Clement in the 12th round last year - but he was available there because he was thought to be unsignable. Sometimes - it’s not - the Twins should have inked Aaron Heilman, for example, a year before the Mets tabbed him. The Twins fail to sign a higher percentage of their top picks than any other organization. This year, the Twins followed their traditional tendencies with regard to position for their early picks, focusing on young position players (2 high school, 1 junior college) and pitching (4 college, 2 high school, 1 junior college). It looks like they may have headed off some of their usual signability concerns by possibly overdrafting a few players, third-rounder Johnny Woodard and fifth-rounder Brandon McArthur, in particular. But, enough about that - who are Minnesota’s top 11 picks? #1 (21st overall) | Matt Moses | 3B | Mills Godwin HS (Richmond, VA) | L-R | 6-0, 210 | 2/20/85 Moses reminds me of a bigger (read stronger), slower Brent Butler. Both players were prep shortstops considered among the best left-handed high school bats available at the time when they were drafted. Moses has a plus arm, average speed, good plate discipline, and a knack for lining balls all over the field with a swing that suggests eventual power. Mechanically, he could use refinement, particularly on defense. He won’t stay at shortstop - it looks like the Twins will move him to third base (to make use of his arm), but second base, right field and catcher have all been suggested. More than one analyst has made Matt Stairs comparisons, which sounds a little funny at first, until you think about what Stairs looked like in the mid-to-late 80s, when he was a second baseman in the Expos organization - Moses is a quicker, taller version of that. Like with Stairs, there’s concern about Moses’ ability to keep weight off, though he’s considered a very hard worker. He's a Clemson signee, but will probably play pro ball. #2 (58th overall) | Scott Baker | RHP | Oklahoma State | R-R | 6-4, 200 | 9/19/81 I like Baker. He’s got four pitches - a moving low 90s fastball, plus slider, change, and knuckle curve - and all four are average or better. He has solid mechanics and decent arm action from a 3/4 slot and isn’t afraid to pitch inside (13 HBP this year). He’s also been successful, both with OSU (10-5 3.79 ERA, 111.2 IP, 117 H, 9 HR, 29 BB, 97 SO) and in summer ball (3-1 1.61 ERA, 56 IP, 38 H, 8 BB, 52 SO with Orleans of the Cape Cod league). His control is good and he might be able to add a little velocity as he tones his body. He’s had Tommy John surgery, but I don’t think that’s any kind of problem. He was the Pirates' 36th round pick in the 2000 draft. #3 (88th overall) | Johnny Woodard | 1B | Cosumnes River JC (CA) | L-L | 6-4, 190 | 9/15/84 Woodard was a surprise at round three, having been projected to go between rounds six and eight. Not well regarded out of high school, Woodard hit .374/.487/.599 in 147 AB (7 HR, 28 RBI, 4 SB, 28 BB, 27 SO) as a freshman for Cosumnes River JC. The 28 walks was the second highest total among players qualifying for the league leaders in batting - interesting for a Minnesota signee. He’s thin and projects considerable power. Curiously, he was named Bay Valley Conference Player of the Year, but not selected as a conference all-star. #4 (118th overall) | Dave Shinskie | RHP | Carmel Area HS (Kulpmont, PA) | R-R | 6-4, 205 | 5/4/84 A top rated QB prospect, Shinskie is still pretty raw on the mound. From a 3/4 slot, he throws a low 90s fastball, as well as still developing changeups and sliders, but lacks command. For an indication of his current pro readiness, he went 1-5 with a 3.11 ERA in his first 7 decisions against Pennsylvania preps. His mechanics need work, but he’s got a durable looking body and loose arm action. Success could be as simple as his getting reps. Committed to Delaware, Shinskie supposedly has baseball as his primary focus. #5 (148th overall) | Brandon McArthur | 3B | Armwood HS (Seffner, FL) | R-R | 6-1, 170 | 9/24/84 Like Moses, McArthur will have to move from short to third in the pros. He doesn't have Moses' bat, though he does have a nice, quick swing. He also has more defensive polish than Moses and a plus arm. He's considered very steady and has the usual gamer/scrapper qualities. The Florida signee was third team all-state as a SS/P. #6 (178th overall) | Errol Simonitsch | LHP | Gonzaga | L-L | 6-4, 225 | 8/24/82 Simonitsch has a big body and loose arm stroke, but suffered from season-ending shoulder tendinitis after 8 starts. He’s made a habit of posting bad ERAs and good strikeout/walk ratios the last two years - going 4-3 with a 5.33 ERA in 49 IP, with 57 H, 7 HR, 14 BB, 58 SO this season. He works mostly off an upper 80s fastball that has a little sink from a high arm slot and could stand to improve his offspeed stuff. It's a little surprising that Simonitsch went this high, given his health. #7 (208th overall) | Chris Schutt | RHP | Cornell | R-R | 6-1, 200 | 2/8/82 Schutt came out of nowhere to emerge as one of the two top pitchers in the Ivy League this season, going 3-5 with a 1.89 ERA in 62 IP for Cornell, with 43 H, 2 HR, 23 BB, 89 SO. Though he’s not big and his fastball tops out at 90 MPH, he’s got a very good out pitch in his slider and he should be durable enough to start, should he develop another plus pitch. His command is good. I don’t know whether or not his Ivy League status will affect his signability. #8 (238th overall) | Brandon McConnell | RHP | Foothills HS (Red Bluff, CA) | R-R | 6-4, 200 | 2/8/85 McConnell is another projection guy, like a lot of Minnesota picks. He has an upper 80s fastball and average breaking ball. Committed to Fresno State, he’d be a good two-way player in college (as a right fielder, he’s shown glimpses of several tools). #9 (268th overall) | Kevin Culpepper | LHP | Georgia Southern | R-L | 6-5, 190 | 6/28/82 Too raw still to make Georgia Southern’s all-prospect rotation, Culpepper’s tall, skinny frame has a lot of room for development and he has an upper 80s fastball and hard curve to build off of. Mechanically, he’s kind of a mess - which could bode well in that he could get a lot better if/when he smoothes things out. His arm is quick - which suggests an ability to add velocity as well. As a middle reliever, he went 4-0 with a 5.54 ERA in 52 IP, with 60 H, 4 HR, 22 BB, 58 SO - but his future should be in the rotation. He was the Cubs' 43rd round pick in 2001. #10 (298th overall) | Chris Marini | LHP | Glendale JC (CA) | L-L | 6-1, 190 | 2/11/83 Scouts were divided as to whether Marini should pitch or play in the outfield at the next level - the Twins have drafted him as a pitcher. He has a mid 80s fastball, along with a change and slider from a 3/4 slot and is 6-5 with a 2.26 ERA in 95.2 IP, with 74 H, 36 BB, and 67 SO this season. He also played sparingly (19 AB, 4 IP) for the University of Arizona in 2002. #11 (328th overall) | Ryan Schroyer | RHP | Arizona State | R-R | 6-1, 215 | 9/28/81 Bonus! Schroyer, should he sign, is a steal in the 11th round. From a high 3/4 slot, he’s got a 90 mph fastball (has hit the mid 90s in the past), a plus curve, slider and change. He went 5-2 with a 1.61 ERA with 8 saves in 44.2 IP, with 2 HR, 19 BB, 50 SO, after dominating in the summer Alaska League (1-0 with a 0.00 ERA with 7 SV in 18 IP, 6 H, 12 BB, 35 SO). He isn't real projectable, but his body looks solid, and he has obvious command. He's probably being viewed as an eventual reliever, but he has enough diversity of pitches to start. He was the 16th round pick of the Detroit Tigers in 2000. I'm reluctant to provide too much in the way of summary - it's premature to judge this draft class, particularly with the Twins still picking as I write this. However, my initial impression is...blah. Moses looks fine, Baker's good value for the round, and I like Schroyer and Schutt as sleepers, but none of the players jump out at me as "great" picks and a few of them do very little for me (names omitted to protect the innocent). It does look like Minnesota did a lot of what it normally does and that's worked well for them so far. Today's picks: Pittsburgh (Wells) +180 over Atlanta (Reynolds) Minnesota (Rogers) -130 over San Diego (Peavy) Seattle (Franklin) -130 over New York (Seo) Saturday's picks: Philadelphia (Wolf) -130 over Oakland (Harang) Arizona (Patterson) -120 over Cleveland (Anderson) Detroit (Maroth) +280 over San Francisco (Schmidt) Anaheim (Sele) -110 over Florida (Phelps) Boston (Fossum) -135 over Milwaukee (Quevedo) Toronto (Davis) -105 over Cincinnati (Dempster) Minnesota (Santana) -140 over San Diego (Loewer) Chicago (Colon) -120 over Los Angeles (Ashby) Total to date: + $915 W/L record: 115-115 (3-2 yesterday for +75 to stop the bleeding.) *****Comments? Questions? Email me!*****     
Thursday, June 05, 2003
Throwing strikes"Just take the ball and throw it where you want to. Throw strikes. Home plate don't move." --- Satchel PaigeI was immersed in ESPN.com's sortable stats page the other day, as I often am, when I noticed the unusual amount of major league pitchers posting phenomenal strikeout/walk ratios. Don't get me wrong, there are guys every year that strike tons of batters out and don't walk very many guys. Last year, for example: Pitcher K BB K/BBThat's the full list of pitchers with more than 20 innings pitched and at least 5 strikeouts for every walk allowed in 2002. Now, take a look at the same list for this season: Pitcher K BB K/BBWhat David Wells is doing right now is fascinating to me. He has always had very good control, but this season is something completely different. Here are the walks he has issued this year: April 21st (at Minnesota): Torii Hunter leads off the bottom of the 7th inning, with the Twins trailing the Yankees 12-0. David Wells, who had not walked a single batter in 28 innings pitched at this point, walks Torii Hunter - a hitter who walked a grand total of 35 times in 604 plate appearances in 2002. And he does it on four straight pitches. May 2nd (vs Oakland): With the Yankees leading 3-2 in the top of the 7th, Ramon Hernandez doubles to lead off the inning and then Wells gets two quick ground outs. Eric Byrnes comes up with 2 outs and a man on second base and Wells walks him - on four straight pitches. May 19th (at Boston): With 2 outs in the bottom of the 5th inning and a man on third base, Todd Walker comes to the plate with the Yankees up 5-1. Wells' first pitch is a called strike and he then proceeds to throw 4 straight balls, allowing Todd Walker, fittingly enough, to walk. And that's it, those are all the walks David Wells has given up this year. Wells has pitched 78 innings and faced 320 batters this year, and he has walked a grand total of 3 of them. One to Torii Hunter in a game he was leading 12-0, one to Eric Byrnes with first base open and two outs and one to Todd Walker. And all of them on four straight balls. Wells is currently on pace to pitch 222 innings this year, strikeout 120 hitters and walk 9 of them. Here are the all-time single-season leaders in K/BB ratio for pitchers with 200+ innings in a season (since 1900): # Pitcher Year K/BBFirst of all, that is a hell of a list. Secondly, I knew Curt Schilling's K/BB ratio last year was incredible, but I guess I didn't realize it was the best in the history of baseball. Thirdly, David Wells is blowing those guys away! The problem with Wells though, is that he simply doesn't strike enough guys out to stay ahead of Schilling's "pace." Schilling's control last year was impressive, but it wasn't impressive simply because of the control, but because it came along with a massive amount of strikeouts. Schilling walked 33 guys last year, while striking out 316. If you replace his 316 strikeouts with Wells' 120, Schilling's K/BB ratio drops from 9.57 all the way down to 3.63. Now, 3.63 strikeouts per walk is still very nice, but it wouldn't get him anywhere near the 2002 leaderboard, let alone the all-time list. In fact, a 3.63 K/BB ratio ranks just 159th all-time among pitchers with 200+ innings since 1900. If Wells strikes out 120 guys, like he's currently on pace to do, he would need to walk 13 or fewer batters the whole season in order to be the new all-time leader. He already has 3 in 78 innings, so (again keeping his projected pace) he would need to limit his walks to 10 or fewer over his next 144 innings. So, while Wells' K/BB ratio is very impressive, he has very little shot at keeping it up, at least not unless he starts striking out at a few more hitters. I think the record he has a slightly better shot at is the all-time best ratio of walks per 9 innings. Here are the all-time leaders in BB/9 IP (with 200+ innings since 1900): # Player Year BB/9 IPWells currently has 3 walks in 78 innings pitched. Assuming he ends up with his projected total of 222 innings, he would need to walk 12 or fewer batters over the next 144 innings. Basically, the walks/9 IP record is just slightly more attainable for Wells than the strikeout/walk record. For one (BB/9 IP) he needs to walk 12 or fewer over 144 innings and for the other (K/BB) he needs to walk 10 or fewer over 144 innings. At first that seems like an insignificant difference, but the 2 walks get a little more significant when you remember he has only walked 3 batters the entire season so far! While Boomer Wells is currently leading major league pitchers in K/BB ratio and is chasing a couple of all-time records, Eric Gagne is 5th in K/BB this season and chasing one of his own. So far this year, Eric Gagne has pitched 29 innings for the Dodgers and has 52 strikeouts. Here is what he is currently projected to do for the full season: IP SO BB H HR AVG OBP SLGThose numbers are almost unfathomable to me. 148 strikeouts in 82 innings?! 17 walks?! 37 hits?! It is crazy. If Gagne does end up with 148 strikeouts this year, he may find himself in the top 20 National League leaders in strikeouts, despite pitching only 82 innings. 148 Ks would have ranked 20th last year and 22nd in 2001. That said, Eric Gagne has bigger fish to fry than finishing in the top 20 in the NL for this season. He is currently on pace to strikeout more batters per 9 innings than any pitcher in baseball history. Gagne is currently striking out 16.13 batters per 9 innings. Here are the all-time leaders for pitchers with 50+ innings in a season: # Player Year SO/9 IPNow, that is a fun list. You have two starting pitchers at the bottom, despite the qualification only being 50+ innings. There is also two appearances by ESPN's own Rob Dibble, who was obviously 50 times the pitcher that he is the TV "personality." And, at the top of the list, you have 3 of the best 4 seasons belonging to Billy Wagner, a left-handed reliever that stands "5 foot 11" and weighs "195 pounds." If Wagner is 5'11" than I'm Peter Gammons and if he's 195 pounds I want to know how many bricks he has in his pockets. Anyway, with 52 strikeouts in his first 29 innings, Gagne is about 1.2 strikeouts per 9 innings ahead of Wagner's 15.01/9 IP in 1999. Here is what Gagne has done thus far: IP SO SO/9Assuming he ends up pitching 82 innings like he is on pace to do, here is what he would need to do for the rest of the season to beat Wagner for the top spot all-time: IP SO SO/9Can Eric Gagne strike out 14.71 batters per 9 innings over the course of the next 52 innings? I doubt it. I mean, only two times in the history of the sport has someone been able to strikeout that many guys in that many innings, so it's certainly not "likely" that someone else will do it at any given time. That said, Gagne averaged 12.46 strikeouts per game last year and 16.13 so far this year, so 14.71 is pretty close to just splitting those two numbers right down the middle. And Gagne isn't slowing down either, he's actually upping his K rate as he goes. Month SO/9Of course, "June" is only 2 innings and 4 strikeouts, but it's a fun chart to look at anyway. If the innings qualification is adjusted from 50+ to 80+ (the amount Gagne is on pace to throw), then I think he has a very good chance of being the all-time leader: # Player Year SO/9 IPGagne already owns the #9 spot on that list and, to rank #1, he would need to strikeout 72 batters over his next 53 innings, which works out to 12.22 per 9 innings, or slightly less than his rate from last year (12.46). Speaking of pitchers who throw strikes and pitchers who strike tons of guys out... Twins starting pitcher Rick Reed is once again dinged up and is headed to the disabled list, which means he won't be able to take his scheduled turn in the rotation tomorrow against the Padres. Instead, the Twins have called upon Johan "The Official Pitcher of Aaron's Baseball Blog" Santana to take his place. As you all know, I am very happy anytime Johan Santana can get himself a start and I am usually equally happy when Rick Reed can avoid getting himself one. That said, I am not as confident about Johan this time around as I was back on May 9th, when he made his other spot start this year. He ended up pitching 5 innings of shutout ball against the Red Sox that day and beat Pedro Martinez. This time around, Johan will be facing San Diego, a much lesser offensive team than the Red Sox. However, while Johan was almost unhittable in the days leading up to his last start (he had a 1.59 ERA at the time), he has been very hittable of late. In fact, ever since he made that start against Boston on May 9th, he has been very shaky. Time Period IP ERA SO BB HSo, that's the bad news. The good news is that the Padres are one of the worst teams in baseball at hitting against left-handed pitching. For the year they are hitting just .236/.326/.335 against southpaws, which is 28th in batting average, 20th in on-base percentage and 28th in slugging percentage. To take Reed's spot on the roster, the Twins called up Michael Nakamura from Triple-A. Nakamura is a relief pitcher and was having a great year at Rochester. In 40 innings he had a 2.01 ERA and 55 strikeouts, along with only 8 walks. Nakamura has been very good in past seasons too. In 2002 he had a 4.74 ERA, which isn't good, but also posted a 80/22 K/BB ratio in 87 innings, which is excellent. And in 2001 he went 5-1 with a 1.77 ERA in 86 innings, striking out 109 while walking only 24. I am very interested to get my first good look at Nakamura, because I have been intrigued by his minor league numbers for a while now. If he is for real, he will just add to an already excellent bullpen, which is always a good thing, particularly if Santana is needed in the starting rotation for any substantial length of time. Finally... Make sure to check back here tomorrow, because there will be a special surprise entry that will be especially interesting for Twins fans! Today's picks: Colorado (Jennings) -130 over Cleveland (Sabathia) Seattle (Pineiro) -110 over Philadelphia (Duckworth) Montreal (Vazquez) -120 over Anaheim (Lackey) Boston (Burkett) -115 over Pittsburgh (Suppan) Arizona (Dessens) -110 over Chicago (Wright) Total to date: + $840 W/L record: 112-113 (1-2 yesterday for -100 as my free-fall continues...) *****Comments? Questions? Email me!*****
Wednesday, June 04, 2003
Feeling a draftThe MLB Draft was yesterday and I actually listened to a great deal of the first 4 rounds (when MLB.com wasn't having audio problems), despite the fact that I had absolutely no clue who 99% of the players being drafted were. To me, the most interesting thing about the draft is not who the players are, but what types of players they are and which teams choose them.For example, the Braves take high school player after high school player after high school player every year, with seemingly half of them being from the state of Georgia. On the other hand, A's take 100% college players and all of them have .450 OBPs and most have questionable defense. My team, the Twins, generally take a mix of high school and college players and this year was no different. The Twins chose Matt Moses, a high school infielder, with their first round pick (#21 overall) and then used their second rounder on Scott Baker, a polished college pitcher from Oklahoma State. I think the Twins have done a very good job with their drafts in recent years, although some of their first round picks have been flops. Hopefully this guy Moses turns into something good (that sentence just sounds funny: "this guy Moses"). From what I have read about Moses, he has been dubbed the best "pure high school hitter in the draft" - whatever that means. Here's what ESPN.com says about Matt Moses: "A left-hander with a smooth swing, a big build and an excellent eye at plate, Moses was widely regarded as the best all-around hitter among this year's prep prospects."Sounds pretty good to me. Of course, the problem with high school guys is that, even if he turns out to be great, he won't be playing for the Twins until like 2007, which seems awfully far away. I mean, by that time, I might actually be done with college! I thought it might be interesting to look back at the Twins' first-round picks over the last 15 years to see how they've done... 1989 | 25th overall | Chuck Knoblauch | SS | Texas A&M Chuck Knoblauch didn't exactly have a pleasant end to his career, but this is definitely one of the best (if not the best) picks by the Twins in the last 15 years. The Twins drafted Knoblauch as a shortstop and he eventually made the switch to second base, where, despite his troubles with the Yankees, he was an excellent defensive player. After being drafted, Knoblauch played in two different Single-A leagues in 1989, combining to hit .308/.392/.421 with 2 homers, 23 doubles and 13 steals in 69 games. He stole bases, had an awesome walk/strikeout ratio and flashed excellent doubles power. Knoblauch was promoted to Orlando of the Southern League the next season and he hit .289/.380/.384 with 2 homers, 23 doubles, 6 triples, 23 steals and a fantastic 63/31 BB/K ratio. That was his final season in the minors. Knoblauch began the 1991 season with the Twins and ended up playing in 151 games as their starting second baseman. He hit .281/.351/.350 with 25 stolen bases and won the American League Rookie of the Year Award, while helping lead the Twins to their second World Series Championship (Knoblauch hit .326 in the post-season and scored 8 runs in 12 games). As they say, the rest is history. Knoblauch continued as the Twins' starting second baseman until they traded him to the Yankees in 1998. From 1991-1997, he was one of the best second baseman in baseball and his 1995 and 1996 seasons are two of the best back-to-back seasons by a second baseman in baseball history. Year AVG OBP SLG SB OPS+Over that two year stretch, Knoblauch was tied for 5th in the American League in "Runs Created Above Position." The numbers one through four guys were Edgar Martinez, Jim Thome, Albert Belle and Frank Thomas, and Mark McGwire was tied with Knoblauch for 5th. Knoblauch was basically a perfect first round pick. He developed quickly, he developed well, he became a star player for many years and even led the team to a championship. It doesn't get much better than that. Heck, the Twins even got value when they traded him to the Yankees (Cristian Guzman and Eric Milton, among others). Knoblauch's first season with New York was a mediocre one. He hit just .265/.361/.401 for an OPS+ of 101 - his lowest since 1993. Of course, the Yankees won 114 games and the World Series that year, so it wasn't all bad. Knoblauch bounced back the next year and hit .292/.393/.454 with a career-high 18 homers, as the Yanks once again won the World Series. It was about this time that Knoblauch started experiencing "the yips" at second base, and he often was unable to make routine throws on ground balls. He was reasonably productive with the bat in 2000 (.282/.366/.385), but his sudden defensive problems were growing bigger and bigger and he eventually stopped playing second base. Then in 2001, he moved to left field full-time, where his throwing problems were no longer a big concern. His defense in left was very raw though and he also had the worst offensive season of his career, hitting just .250/.339/.351. The Yankees let him go and he signed with the Kansas City Royals for the 2002 season and played left field for them, hitting a miserable .210/.284/.300 in what would be his final season as a major league baseball player. Last I heard of Knoblauch, he had retired from baseball and was living in New York. 1990 | 12th overall | Todd Ritchie | RHP | High School A year after taking a college middle-infielder, the Twins opted to take Todd Ritchie, a right-handed high school pitcher from Duncanville, Texas. While Knoblauch was the Twins' starting second baseman just two years after being drafted, Todd Ritchie's journey to the big leagues was a lot longer and a lot more difficult. Ritchie pitched over 600 minor league innings before he ever threw a pitch in the major leagues. His pro career started out very well when he posted a 1.94 ERA in 65 innings of rookie-ball after being drafted. He pitched well in 1991 too, throwing 117 innings with a 3.55 ERA in his first full-season. It was all downhill from there though. Ritchie had a 5.09 ERA in 173 innings in 1992 and then pitched only 47 and 17 innings in 1993 and 1994, with ERAs of 3.66 and 4.24. He came back in 1995 and managed to pitch 113 innings at Double-A, but contined to struggle and had a 5.73 ERA. Then in 1996, Ritchie had a 5.44 ERA in 83 Double-A innings and a 5.47 ERA in 25 innings at Double-A. For some reason, perhaps because of his status as a former #1 pick, the Twins promoted him to the big leagues in 1997 and he actually did okay. Ritchie appeared in 42 games for the Twins, all in relief, and pitched a total of 75 innings with a 4.58 ERA. He was again with the Twins in 1998, but struggled and was eventually sent back down to the minors. After 9 years in the organization, the Twins let Ritchie go following the 1998 season and he signed as a free agent with the Pittsburgh Pirates. Surprisingly, Ritchie earned a spot in Pittsburgh's rotation in 1999 and ended up having the best season of his career. He started 26 games and pitched 173 innings with a 3.49 ERA. He went 15-9 and ranked 6th in the National League in ERA. That good season earned him a few more years in the Pittsburgh rotation and he went 9-8 with a 4.51 ERA in 2000 and then 11-15 with a 4.47 ERA in 2001. In what will no doubt go down as one of the best trades the Pirates have done in recent memory, they shipped Ritchie and his career 4.37 ERA to the Chicago White Sox in exchange for Kip Wells and Josh Fogg. Wells and Fogg combined to pitch 393 innings and win 24 games for the Pirates in 2002 and are now mainstays in the Pittsburgh rotation, while Ritchie had perhaps the worst season of any pitcher in baseball for the White Sox. He went 5-15 with a 6.06 ERA and gave up 176 hits in just 134 innings. The White Sox let Ritchie go after the season and he signed with the Brewers last off-season. He is currently on the disabled list with a bum shoulder and has a 5.08 ERA in 28 innings for Milwaukee this year. I don't think there is any denying that Todd Ritchie was a disappointment. He was the #12 overall pick in the draft and, aside from one fairly good season in 1999, was never even really an average pitcher. His current career record stands at 43-52 and he has a 4.67 career ERA (about 3% worse than league-average). He gave the Twins almost zero value, despite being in the organization for nearly a decade. 1991 | 3rd overall | David McCarty | OF/1B | Stanford The name David McCarty is one that is almost guaranteed to anger a Twins fan - even now, a decade after he was drafted. After a miserable 1990 season that saw the Twins finish 29 games behind the A's in the AL West, they had the honor of picking third in the 1991 draft. They selected David McCarty, a polished college hitter who had the label of a "can't miss" prospect. He, of course, missed. After hitting .420 with 24 homers in just 71 games during his junior (and final) season at Stanford, McCarty struggled immediately in pro ball. After hitting .380 in a brief 15 game stint at Single-A right after signing, McCarty was promoted to Double-A, where hit just .261/.350/.409 to finish the season. Then, in his first full-season of pro ball, McCarty hit .272/.356/.434 in 129 games at Double-A. He wasn't showing a lot of the awesome hitting ability he flashed in college, but then he got off to a very hot start at Triple-A in 1993 and, after 40 games, the Twins called him up to the big leagues, where he struggled mightily. The next few seasons were spent struggling in the majors and getting sent back down to the minors, only to have the process repeated. Finally, in 1995, after McCarty had accumulated a .226/.275/.310 hitting line in 167 games with the Twins, they traded him to the Reds for a minor league pitcher named John Courtright (who pitched in exactly one big league game in his career). McCarty's stay in the Reds' organization lasted about a month after he was included in a deal that sent, among others, Deion Sanders to the San Francisco Giants, in exchange for Dave Burba, Darren Lewis and Mark Portugal. McCarty got limited playing time with the Giants over the next couple seasons, hitting .221/.297/.333 in 103 games. San Fran dealt him to the Mariners in 1998 and that basically ended McCarty's days as any sort of valuable property. Since 1998, he has played in 5 organizations, including the Oakland A's twice. He had the most major league success of his career with the Royals in 2000, when he hit .278/.329/.478 as a part-time first baseman/DH. The Royals rewarded him with a job in 2001 and he responded by hitting just .250/.328/.405. McCarty is currently a member of the A's organization and is playing in Triple-A, where he is having a very good year, hitting .293/.365/.554 in 57 games. McCarty turns 34 in a few months, so his career is pretty much over. He'll probably continue to hit well in Triple-A and might end up with a bench job for someone at some point, but he's never going to come close to living up to his promise. McCarty is an unqualified bust for the Twins and has to be considered one of the least successful picks in Twins history. 1992 | 26th overall | Dan Serafini | LHP | High School After picking 3rd overall in the 1991 draft, the Twins won the 1991 World Series and picked 26th in the 1992 draft. After selecting a college slugger the previous year, they picked Dan Serafini, a left-handed high school pitcher from San Bruno, California. Going from a right-handed college slugger to left-handed high school pitcher is about as different as two picks can be, but Serafini's results were sadly very similar to McCarty's. Serafini's minor league numbers were very mediocre. He pitched a total of 823 minor league innings in his career and posted a 4.31 ERA. His strikeout totals were fairly good in the minors and I suspect, had I been writing this blog back in the mid-90s, I would have called Dan Serafini a "sleeper" prospect or something similar. He did get to the majors with the Twins, but he just never got the job done. He made his MLB debut with the Twins in 1996 and gave up 5 runs in 4 innings. Then he pitched a little bit for them the next season and had a decent ERA (3.42) in 26 innings. Serafini got his big chance in 1998. He pitched a total of 75 innings for the Twins, allowing 95 hits and posting a 6.48 ERA. The Twins dealt him to the Cubs after the season and he posted a 6.93 ERA with Chicago in 1999, before moving on to the Pirates and then finally the Padres. Serafini's chances in the majors weren't particularly plentiful, but his minor league performances didn't exactly cry out for more chances. He ended his major league career with a 6.06 ERA in 233 innings pitched. 1993 | 20th overall | Torii Hunter | CF | High School 1993 | 21st overall | Jason Varitek | C | Georgia Tech The Twins got themselves two first round picks in 1993, because they received Toronto's selection (#21) as compensation for Jack Morris signing with the Jays in 1992. With their own pick, the Twins took Torii Hunter, a toolsy high school outfielder from Arkansas. With the Jays' selection, they grabbed Jason Varitek, a college catcher. I am gonna guess that most of you are pretty familar with both Hunter and Varitek. Torii was the Twins' best player last season and is their starting centerfielder for the forseeable future. Varitek has been one of the better starting catchers in the majors since 1999. Unfortunately, it hasn't been for the Twins. Varitek did not sign with the Twins after they picked him and ended up going back to school and then back into the draft the following season. The Mariners picked him in the first round the next year, signed him and then later traded him to the Red Sox, for whom he has been the starting catcher. Looking back on it now, it is likely one of the worst trades of the last decade. The Mariners sent Varitek, along with Derek Lowe (21-8 last year for Boston), to the Red Sox in exchange for the immortal Heathcliff Slocumb. Slocumb's Seattle career lasted exactly 96 innings and he went 2-9 with a 4.97 ERA. And for that the Sox got their starting catcher and the guy who finished #3 in the Cy Young voting last year. Strictly for identifying major league caliber players, the Twins "batted a thousand" in 1993. They picked two guys who both turned into above-average major league starters. Unfortunately, they only batted .500 when it came to actually signing the guys, although I am sure they are pretty happy with the guy they did sign. 1994 | 8th overall | Todd Walker | IF | Louisiana State With their first-round pick in 1994, the Twins selected Todd Walker, a college star from LSU. Walker was the 1993 College World Series MVP and had excellent college stats. The Twins no doubt selected him because of that and because they felt he could advance quickly through the system and provide value in the major leagues quickly. And, for the most part, Walker did just that. Walker debuted at Fort Myers in 1994 and hit .304 with a .532 slugging percentage in 46 games. He hit .290 with a .478 slugging percentage the next season and then followed that up with a .339 batting average and a .599 slugging percentage at Triple-A in 1996. He got a cup of coffee with the Twins at the end of the 1996 season and then went back to Triple-A to start 1997. He hit .345 and slugged .516 in 83 games there and the Twins called him up for good (or so it seemed). Walker struggled in 1997 while playing third base in Minnesota, but had a breakout year in 1998 as Minnesota's starting second baseman. He hit .316/.372/.473 with 12 homers and 41 doubles. Walker then had a big dropoff in production in 1999, hitting "only" .279/.343/.397. By this time, there was a lot of talk about his defense at second base being absolutely horrible. Not only were the media and fans talking about it, Tom Kelly (the manager) and some members of the pitching staff were actually voicing (or at least whispering) concerns. Personally, I never thought Walker's defense at second base was that bad. He certainly did not have great range, but he was very sure-handed and he was okay on the double-play. Purely from personal observations, I don't think Walker's D with the Twins was anywhere near as horrible as Luis Rivas' and you don't really hear many people (besides myself) talking about Rivas' shortcomings. And, unlike Todd Walker, Luis Rivas stinks at the plate too. Walker got off to a very bad start at the plate in 2000 and the Twins simply got sick of him. They sent him to Triple-A and then dealt him to the Rockies at mid-season. At the time, the deal was looked at as purely a "dump," but the Twins actually got a useful player (Todd Sears) out of it. Walker hit .316/.385/.544 for the Rockies in the second-half of the year and then hit .296/.355/.459 between Colorado and Cincinnati the next season. He played for the Reds last year and hit .299/.353/.431 as their starting second baseman. Walker was traded from the Reds to the Red Sox last off-season and he is currently Boston's second baseman. Todd Walker is a big disappointment as far as his Minnesota career is concerned, but his overall career has been quite good and he was certainly a solid first-round pick. 1995 | 13th overall | Mark Redman | LHP | Oklahoma A year after taking a college hitter in the first round, the Twins selected Mark Redman, a left-handed college pitcher from the University of Oklahoma. Interestingly enough, Redman's career is somewhat similar to Walker's. Redman didn't cruise through the minors as quickly as Walker did, but, once he got to the Twins, he was very good at times and very frustrating at times, just like Walker. And, like Walker, the Twins eventually got tired of him and traded him away. They dealt him to the Tigers for a half-season of Todd Jones in 2001. And yet again, like Walker, Redman has had some pretty good success with other teams since leaving Minnesota. He pitched 203 innings for the Tigers last season, posting a respectable 4.21 ERA. He is currently a member of the Marlins' starting rotation and he is 3-2 with a 2.76 ERA in 46 innings pitched. I don't think anyone would describe Mark Redman's career (26-32 with a 4.40 ERA in 471 innings) as being of first-round quality, but he is certainly a valuable pitcher in the major leagues, which, considering the various busts throughout the history of first-round picks, is pretty good. 1996 | 2nd overall | Travis Lee | 1B | San Diego State After finishing with the worst record in the American League in 1995, the Twins had the #2 pick in the 1996 draft and, for the third straight year, chose a college player. This time it was Travis Lee, a "pure hitting" first baseman, with a sweet lefty stroke and impressive college numbers. Travis Lee never played a single day in the Minnesota organization, not because of a career-ending injury or the Twins refusing to sign him, but because Lee and his agent were able to find a loophole in the draft process that allowed him to become a free agent. Free to offer Lee's services to the highest bidder, he ended up signing a big major league contract with the expansion Arizona Diamondbacks. At the time, Twins fans were irate/confused/depressed about the whole situation and, after Lee put up nice numbers in the minors, all of those feelings were magnified. Fortunately for the sake of Twins fans, Travis Lee never really turned into the player most people thought he would become. He has played 746 major league games for 3 different teams and has a career batting line of .255/.339/.401, which, for a first baseman, is pretty awful. As a #2 overall pick, he's a bust. As a first-round pick, he isn't bad and has certainly had a decent major league career. 1997 | 9th overall | Michael Cuddyer | SS | High School 1998 | 6th overall | Ryan Mills | LHP | Arizona State 1999 | 5th overall | B.J. Garbe | OF | High School 2000 | 2nd overall | Adam Johnson | RHP | Cal State Fullerton 2001 | 1st overall | Joe Mauer | C | High School 2002 | 20th overall | Denard Span | CF | High School 2003 | 21st overall | Matt Moses | IF | High School From 1997 on is the point at which I think it is "too early" to determine how the picks have turned out. Of the 7 picks listed above, only Cuddyer and Johnson have reached the majors and they are currently both back in Triple-A. I do think, however, that a pretty good feel can be had for several of those guys. Michael Cuddyer has been given a couple of short stints with the Twins and has simply not produced at the level expected of him. In 73 career games in the majors, Cuddyer is a .246/.313/.409 hitter. Not completely awful, but nowhere near what the Twins think he can do. Cuddyer has consistently dominated minor league pitching and I really think he is going to be a very good major league player. While it is too early to say he was a good first round pick, I think he will eventually be considered a very good one. On the other hand, Ryan Mills, B.J. Garbe and Adam Johnson are well on their way to being total busts. Mills was a dominant college pitcher at Arizona State, but as soon as he got to the Minnesota organization, he started suffering from a minor case of whatever Rick Ankiel has - he just couldn't throw strikes. It was never as bad as Ankiel's situation, but Mills never showed even an inkling of his college dominance and he is now being tried as a reliever in the minors, in the hopes that he will be able to provide at least a marginal bit of value to the Twins at some point. B.J. Garbe was a high school outfielder who was drafted because he oozed "tools." Unfortunately, he isn't much of a baseball player. He has played over 400 minor league games and has a career slugging percentage of .326. Garbe broke his arm diving for a ball in the outfield early this season and has been out ever since. If he becomes even a decent major league outfielder, I will be shocked beyond belief. While Garbe and Mills are close to being "lost causes," Adam Johnson has been very bad, but may still become a good pitcher. The Twins took Johnson #2 overall in the 2000 draft, partly because he was said to be very close to the major leagues. Johnson pitched well in Single-A and the Twins promoted him very aggressively to the majors, where he struggled big time. Since then, Johnson has been a mess. He had a 5.48 ERA at Triple-A last season and currently sports a horrendously awful 9.77 ERA there this year. I am not ready to give up on Johnson yet and still think he can be a valuable reliever possibly, but it is pretty obvious that, as the #2 overall pick in the draft, he is a bust. The Twins drafted Joe Mauer with the #1 overall pick in the 2001 draft. While I would much rather they had selected Mark Prior #1, Joe Mauer wasn't a bad "consolation prize." He is still just in Single-A, so judging his career or the value of the pick is pointless, but I do think he's going to be a star player in the major leagues. So, what exactly do we have here with the Twins' first-rounders the last 15 years? Well, I would break it down as follows: (Everything is based on the player's overall career, not just his days as a Twin) Star Players: Chuck Knoblauch Torii Hunter Solid Players: Jason Varitek Mark Redman Todd Walker Todd Ritchie Travis Lee Complete Busts: Dan Serafini David McCarty Jury Still Out and Looking Good: Joe Mauer Michael Cuddyer Jury Still Out and Looking Bad: Ryan Mills Adam Johnson B.J. Garbe Jury Still Out, Period: Denard Span Matt Moses One thing that struck me putting together this entry is that, for the most part, the bad picks have all come from one region, the West, while the good picks have come from the South. West: Good... Travis Lee (San Diego State) Bad... David McCarty (Stanford) Dan Serafini (California HS) Ryan Mills (Arizona State) B.J. Garbe (Washington HS) Adam Johnson (Cal State Fullerton) South: Good... Chuck Knoblauch (Texas A&M) Todd Ritchie (Texas HS) Torii Hunter (Arkansas HS) Jason Varitek (Georgia Tech) Todd Walker (LSU) Mark Redman (Oklahoma) Michael Cuddyer (Virginia HS) Bad... None I don't know if this is anything significant, but it is certainly interesting. At the very least, the Minnesota scouts on the West Coast might want to keep their resumes updated, if you know what I'm saying... By the way, Twins fans can feel very good about this year's first-rounder, Matt Moses. Why? Because he is from Virginia, of course! Today's picks: Oakland (Hudson) -140 over Florida (Redman) Toronto (Lidle) +105 over St. Louis (Simontachi) Texas (Thomson) +180 over Atlanta (Maddux) Total to date: + $940 W/L record: 111-111 (1-5 for -550 yesterday, with one rainout. OUCH!) *****Comments? Questions? Email me!*****
Tuesday, June 03, 2003
Reader Mail (Strike Edition)I spent a couple of entries last week talking about the 300 Win Club and I also discussed the wins various pitchers lost because of the strike in 1994/1995.Since then, I have received a ton of good emails on those subjects, including one particularly good one regarding other "lost stats" from the 94/95 strike. The email was from my good buddy Vinay, who is not only a member of both of my Diamond-Mind leagues, but also contributed a great email to my entry about Trevor Hoffman several months ago: Hi Aaron-Great email. First of all, regarding Greg Maddux's peak versus Pedro Martinez's peak, my gut reaction is that Maddux's 2-year stint in 94/95 might be close to as good a 2-year stint as Pedro in 1999/2000, but, as I said a few days ago, I don't think anyone could match what Pedro has done over 5-6 seasons. Last week I compared Pedro's best 6-year stretch to Sandy Koufax's highly-touted 6-year stretch. Now, let's add Maddux's best 6-year stretch to the comparison: (ERA+ is "adjusted ERA+" and "Rnk" is how their innings pitched ranked in their league that season) Koufax Martinez MadduxYou know what? It's a whole lot closer than I thought it would be. I think Pedro gets the edge in preventing runs, but Maddux was much more of a "workhorse" than Pedro was. Maddux led the NL in innings pitched 3 times during that 6 year span, was 2nd once, 3rd once and 8th once. Meanwhile, Pedro never led his league in any of those 6 seasons and pitched just 116 innings in one of them. I think it's pretty obvious that I have short-changed Maddux in this discussion and, in a way, I think that is sort of the story of Greg Maddux's career. When he's done playing, he is going to go down as one of the top 5-10 pitchers in baseball history, but he has pitched in the same era as Roger Clemens (and Pedro Martinez), so his greatness might end up being overshadowed. For those of you wondering, when I ranked my top 20 pitchers of all-time back in August, I had Clemens #3, Maddux #6 and Martinez #10. I also had Randy Johnson #14, which brings me back to something I often say, which is that we are amazingly lucky to be witnessing four of the greatest pitchers in baseball history, all pitching at the same time. Vinay's points about David Cone and Matt Williams are particularly interesting now, because, since he sent me the email just a couple days ago, Cone has retired from baseball and Matt Williams was designated for assignment by the Diamondbacks. Regarding David Cone, I absolutely did not realize how awesome he was in 1994 and 1995. That said, even if he is credited with the 9 or 10 games he would have won had the strike not happened, I still don't think it is enough to get him into the Hall of Fame. That's not to say he doesn't deserve to be a Hall of Famer (I am not quite sure about that and would have to look at it more in-depth before I had an official opinion), just that, with guys like Bert Blyleven stuck outside the Hall of Fame's gates with 287 wins, what chance does David Cone have with slightly over 200? This is yet another example of why 300 wins being the "magic number" for pitchers is far too high a number, but I've spent too much time talking about that as it is. Vinay is absolutely right about Cone's Hall of Fame chances being hurt more than any other pitcher because of the strike, simply because the closer a player is to being a "marginal" candidate, the more impact missed games are going to have. In other words, the 10 games Greg Maddux probably lost because of the strike isn't going to change whether or not he is a Hall of Famer, but 10 wins can definitely have a big impact on someone like Cone's credentials. Similar to Cone, Matt Williams is a borderline Hall of Fame candidate, so the games he missed in 1994 and 1995 are very important for his career. In 1994, Williams was making a very serious run at the then all-time single-season homer record of 61. He had 43 homers at the time of the strike, at which point the Giants had played 115 games. If you project his numbers over a full-season, it comes out to 60.5 homers. I think it is unlikely that Williams would have broken Roger Maris' homer record in 1994, but he was right on pace and he "only" needed to hit 18 homers in 47 games to tie the record, so it is certainly possible that he would have done it. More than likely, Williams would have ended up with something like 55 homers and, as Vinay points out, probably the National League MVP. Whether the award would have been deserved or not is another issue entirely, but Jeff Bagwell was the MVP in 1994 and he got injured just before the strike happened and likely would have missed the rest of the season, opening the door for Williams (or someone else) to win the award, had the rest of the schedule been played. Williams ended up finishing 2nd to Bagwell in the MVP voting. Looking at the other performances from 1994, it seems to me that there were at least two other players (along with Bagwell) having better seasons than Williams at the time of the strike. Player PA AVG OBP SLG OPS+Bagwell hit .368/.451/.750 with a 213 OPS+ and was by far the best player in the National League in 1994, but he likely would have ended the season with only 110 games played, so I don't think he would have been a serious candidate for MVP. If I had a vote in 1994 and those were the final statistics for each player's 1994 season, I would have voted Matt Williams third, behind Barry Bonds and Mike Piazza. Bonds was a much better offensive player than Williams in 1994. They played for the same team and in the same home ballpark, and Bonds slugged 40 points higher, while getting on base nearly 35% more often, which is extremely significant. Williams played a more important defensive position (third base) and played it very well, but Bonds won the Gold Glove as a left fielder in 1994, so he was valuable defensively too. Meanwhile, Piazza had a higher OPS+ than Matt Williams and got on base at a much higher clip. He slugged about 60 points less than Williams, but he did all that while playing catcher, which is huge. Other MVP candidates in 1994, had Bagwell not won, included Tony Gwynn (.394/.454/.568) and, of course, Greg Maddux (16-6 with a 1.56 ERA). Incidentally, imagine if Matt Williams had hit 61 or 62 homers in 1994 and tied or broken Maris' record. How much would that have taken away from the McGwire/Sosa show in 1998? I'd have to guess it would have almost completely wiped away it's prestige, especially considering the lack of fanfare Bonds received when he broke McGwire's record in 2001. Remember yesterday, when I asked if it was okay to call Joe Morgan an idiot because he continues to act as if Billy Beane wrote Moneyball and he continues to bash Beane and the A's every chance he gets because of it? Well, the real author of Moneyball, Michael Lewis, appearanced at a Barnes and Nobles in Boston last night and fellow blogger Jeremy Wahlman was in attendance. Jeremy emailed me after he got home to say that he told Lewis about Joe Morgan believing Beane wrote the book. He also wrote a blog entry about it... According to Jeremy: "I was the first person in America to inform Mr. Lewis that Joe Morgan, for all of his baseball knowledge, lacks the reading comprehension skills to discern between the subject and author of the book. The comment cracked up both Lewis and the crowd."The way things are going, pretty soon everyone in the entire universe will know that Joe Morgan incorrectly thinks Billy Beane wrote the book. Except Joe Morgan, of course. Joe can't be bothered with such useless information apparently, he's probably too busy being an "insider" and pondering the value of "productive outs" and such. By the way, Jeremy also has an interesting note about a supposed plan of the A's prior to the 2002 season that would have been extraordinarily interesting, to say the least. Go check it out: Jeremy Wahlman's "Something's Always Wrong" Today's picks: Milwaukee (Kinney) -100 over New York (Bacsik) Seattle (Moyer) +110 over Philadelphia (Millwood) Oakland (Mulder) -150 over Florida (Penny) New York (Pettitte) -160 over Cincinnati (Haynes) Texas (Valdes) +180 over Atlanta (Ortiz) Chicago (Loaiza) +105 over Arizona (Batista) San Francisco (Moss) -150 over Minnesota (Mays) Total to date: + $1,490 W/L record: 110-106 (1-2 yesterday for just -80, thanks to a +200 on Shawn Chacon against the Giants) *****Comments? Questions? Email me!*****
Monday, June 02, 2003
Wrapping up the weekendSo, did you have a good weekend? That's good, me too...Usually, in the first entry of every month (which would be this entry), I give a little update on how this site's traffic was the month before. On May 1st, I talked about how nearly 15,000 people visited here in April, marking the 8th straight month the visitor total increased. I also said: My newest goal is a 20,000-visitor month and, since May has 31 days and the site seems to be picking up speed, I figure there is at least a chance of it happening this month.Well, guess what? This blog had 20,550 visitors in May! In addition to that, it is only about 14,000 visitors short of 100,000 and getting there before August 1st (the site's one-year anniversary) should be a breeze. Here are the month-by-month visitor totals: Month VisitorsIf you were one of those 20,550 or are responsible for sending some of those 20,550 here, I want to really thank you. At this point, the amount of visitors have so far surpassed anything I could ever have expected when I started this blog that I don't really know what the next "goal" should be. I guess 25,000 in a month is a nice round number and looks somewhat reachable, although maybe not immediately. For now, I think crossing the 100,000 mark sometime this month will be a pretty big deal and very exciting for me. Okay, now that I am done talking about myself... Joe Morgan does an ESPN.com chat every Friday afternoon and he seems to have gotten into a very strange pattern the past two weeks. Here's what I wrote about his chat from two weeks ago: Hall of Fame second baseman and mediocre broadcaster Joe Morgan does a "chat" on ESPN.com every Friday. Over the years, Joe has become extraordinarily predictable in his opinions on things, to the point that I no longer read the majority of his chats (or listen to the majority of what he says).But okay, maybe Joe just made a mistake. After all, he said he's only read an excerpt. So, I went and checked out Joe's latest chat last Friday and here is what he said: JB (Danville, CA): Joe - The A's offense is scuffling, Dye comes back this weekend and Tejada is starting to hit a little. If you're Billy Beane where do you look to add some pop? I'd love to see them go after a corner outfielder or even a move for Roberto Alomar (the Mets have to be looking to dump salary). Thoughts?At what point is it okay to call Joe Morgan an idiot? I mean, it is obvious from listening to Joe that he is a fairly smart guy. He speaks well, he has quite a lot of intelligent thoughts and he generally comes off as a person of above-average intelligence. But c'mon Joe! Not only does Joe have his facts wrong about Billy Beane and Moneyball, he is now making a big deal about the situation, based on his incorrect facts. It is to the point that Joe bashes the A's/Billy Beane/Moneyball at every possible opportunity he gets, whether it is on ESPN, ESPN.com, ESPN Radio, wherever. It is almost an obsession. And I think it is all based on Joe being incredibly offended by Billy Beane writing a book that Billy Beane didn't even write! It really is quite incredible. I mean, Joe is doing a chat and someone asks him an innocent question about what he would do to improve the A's struggling offense "if he was Billy Beane." And Joe immediately takes that opportunity to bash Beane for writing Moneyball. When I first started paying attention to baseball heavily in the early 90s, I thought Joe Morgan was awesome. He did national games and I thought he was really a great announcer. At this point, I think Joe is slowly becoming an angry old man, who seems to have latched onto the idea that any new baseball knowledge is bad baseball knowledge and the fact that the GM of a baseball team that uses some of that new knowledge would write a book and show himself as the genius behind the franchise really offends Joe Morgan. Never mind the fact that a person named Michael Lewis - an author with several best-selling books - actually wrote Moneyball and Billy Beane had absolutely nothing to do with the content that was in the book or the manner in which he was portrayed. Someone needs to tell Joe that the subject of a book doesn't always write the book and they need to do it pretty fast, because Joe Morgan is starting to really look like an ass. While I was counting to 20,000 and Joe Morgan was saying dumb things, some other interesting stuff happened over the weekend... The Red Sox sent Shea Hillenbrand to the Diamondbacks in exchange for Byung-Hyun Kim. This trade has already been discussed at great lengths elsewhere, so I'll try to keep my opinion of who "won" and who "lost" the deal somewhat short. Basically, I think this is a great deal for the Red Sox. You tell me, which is the more valuable property: Shea Hillenbrand | 3B/1B | 27 year old PA AVG OBP SLG HR 2B BBByung-Hyun Kim | SP/RP | 24 years old IP ERA SO BB AVG OBP SLGThis is a no-brainer if there ever was one. On one hand, you have a third baseman who turns 28 next month and is a career .284/.317/.432 hitter, which is below-average for a third baseman. On the other hand, you have a 24 year old pitcher who can start or relieve and has a career ERA of 3.26 and a career strikeout rate of 10.6 per 9 innings pitched. At best, Shea Hillenbrand is an average third baseman. At worst, Byung-Hyun Kim is one of the best relief pitchers in baseball - he has proven he can be that. At best, Kim is a great starting pitcher and one who doesn't turn 25 years old until next January. The interesting thing isn't so much the trade itself, but what the trade means for the Diamondbacks. First of all, they think enough of Shea Hillenbrand to trade a very good young pitcher for him. Beyond that, they feel Hillenbrand is not only worth dealing Kim for, but also worth them getting rid of Matt Williams, whom they "designated for assignment" almost immediately after the trade. Matt Williams is 37 years old and is obviously no longer a great player. That said, you would think that, in order to not only lose Byung-Hyun Kim but also cut ties with Matt Williams, a player who has been with the organization from the outset, Shea Hillenbrand must be a massive upgrade over Williams at third base. Well, he's not. 2003: Player AVG OBP SLG2002: Player AVG OBP SLGNow, they are very different players, but their overall value as hitters are very similar. Over the past season and a half or so, Hillenbrand and Williams have both gotten on-base about 32-33% of the time and they have both slugged around .440-.450. I am not trying to imply Hillenbrand and Williams are similarly valuable properties at this point. Williams is 10 years older and much more injury-prone, and he has not been quite as good offensively as Hillenbrand has been. However, the fact is that Hillenbrand is simply not that big of an upgrade over Williams and certainly not big enough to part ways with a pitcher like Byung-Hyun Kim. The added strangeness in all of this is that one of Arizona's top prospects is a third baseman who is just about ready for a major league job. Chad Tracy was Arizona's 7th round pick in the 2000 draft. Check out his minor league stats: Year LVL AVG OBP SLGArizona's minor league ballparks are very good places to hit in, so Tracy's lofty batting averages are a little less impressive than they appear. Still, the fact remains that he has hit .340, .344 and .332 in his last three stops. I don't think he's ever going to be a superstar player, but he is only 23 years old, has proven himself in the minor leagues and is quite capable of taking over as Arizona's third baseman. In fact, Tracy hits for high batting averages and lots of doubles and doesn't hit many homers or walk a whole lot - sure sounds like a left-handed Shea Hillenbrand to. And he's 4 years younger and a whole lot cheaper, and the Diamondbacks already had him. So, to recap: In order to acquire Shea Hillenbrand, a career .284/.317/.432 hitter who turns 28 in a month or so, the Diamondbacks... -Traded away a 24 year old sidearmer who can start or relieve and has a career ERA of 3.26 and strikes out 10+ guys per game. -Cut ties with a 37 year old third baseman who has been with the team ever since they literally became a team in 1998 and is actually a pretty comparable player to Hillenbrand at this point. -Blocked one of their top prospects, a younger third baseman who appears to be a very similar hitter to Hillenbrand. All for a guy who is an average third baseman. It's quite amazing on several levels really. The biggest loser in all of this, besides the Diamondbacks, is probably Matt Williams. However, don't feel too bad for Matty, because he still gets his $10 million this year, whether he plays for the Diamondbacks or not. Still, he has been with the D-Backs since 1998 and it had to be a bit of shock to learn that he was being designated for assignment because the team acquired a new third baseman. I can just see it now... (Matt Williams knocks on Bob Brenly's door and walks into his office) Matt Williams: Hi skip, you wanted to see me? Bob Brenly: Yeah Matt, why don't you have a seat. Williams: So, what did you want to tell me? Brenly: Well Matt...this is really tough for me to say...we are letting you go... Williams: What?! Why?! Brenly: We...um...we just traded for a younger third baseman and he's going to be our starter... Williams: Oh...who did you get? Troy Glaus? Brenly: No... Williams: Eric Chavez? Brenly: No... Williams: Hank Blalock? Scott Rolen? Mike Lowell? Who is it? Brenly: Shea Hillenbrand. Williams: Shea Hillenbrand?! Hopefully, Matt Williams can catch on with another team, because he can definitely still be a valuable player. In fact, even with his diminished skills, he is still one of the best in baseball at one very important skill: Mashing left-handed pitching. Check out his numbers against southpaws: Year AVG OBP SLGThere are 30 teams in major league baseball that could use that production against lefties from someone who can play third base (and first base too probably). There are very few players in baseball that can consistenly hit .300 and slug .550-.600 against left-handed pitching and Matt Williams has murdered them for years now, even through his overall decline as a player. I've said it before and I'll say it again: One of the most important skills for a manager or general manager is the ability to look past what a player can't do and see what he can do. In this case, Matt Williams can longer be counted on to play 150-160 games a year at third base and he is no longer very good at hitting right-handed pitching, but if you put him in a platoon at third base, first base or DH, he can be an extremely valuable part of an offense. Arizona would have been infinitely better off, both this year and in the future, if they had kept Kim, brought up Tracy from AAA and platooned him and Williams at third base. A Tracy/Williams platoon would most likely outproduce Hillenbrand by quite a bit, they would still have Kim, and Tracy wouldn't be stuck in Triple-A. By the way, as soon as I heard about Williams getting let go by Arizona, I immediately thought about which teams would be interested in him and the very first one that came to mind was the Chicago Cubs. Sure enough, I see the following on ESPN.com: Chicago Cubs manager Dusty Baker said he planned to call Williams, who played for Baker in San Francisco.I'm not saying Chicago signing Williams to be their third baseman would be a horrible thing, especially since I just got done talking about how Williams can still be a valuable member of a team. That said, the Cubs should probably be focusing on playing the best third baseman they already have. Mark Bellhorn got semi-everyday playing time for the Cubs last year, at first base, second base, shortstop, third base and even the outfield. He had a breakout season and hit .258/.374/.512 with 27 homers and 24 doubles in 445 at bats. He began this season as Chicago's starting third baseman and got off to a horrible start at the plate. After 10 games he was hitting .038/.235/.115. That is an absolutely horrendous start to a season, but it is still just that - a start to a season. Over his next 10 games, Bellhorn hit .344/.487/.500, but his season line was still just .207/.377/.328, which tells you just how bad his first 10 games were. But okay, here's a guy that was a very good hitter in 2002, got off to a slow start and was hitting .344/.487/.500 over his second 10-game stretch. He should continue to be the everyday third baseman, right? Well, no. Apparently one very good season followed by 10 bad games and 10 good games was enough to lose Bellhorn his "job." Bellhorn started just 6 of the next 10 games for the Cubs and it has gotten much worse lately. Bellhorn has started just 3 of Chicago's last 13 games and hasn't even appeared as a pinch-hitter in 4 of them. The worst part of all of this is not that Mark Bellhorn lost his starting job because of 10 bad games at the very start of the season, ignoring what he did for 445 at bats the year before or what he did after his poor start. No, the worst part of all of this is that Mark Bellhorn has lost his job as the Chicago Cubs' third baseman in favor of Lenny Harris. Yes, Lenny Harris. Lenny Harris has somehow accumulated over 4,000 plate appearances in his major league career. He has a .320 on-base percentage and a .352 slugging percentage. His career high in slugging percentage is .411. Meanwhile, as I said, Mark Bellhorn hit .258/.374/.512 last season and smacked 27 homers. Lenny Harris has 35 homers in 3,681 career at bats. But hey, Bellhorn has admittedly not done well in the playing time he has gotten this year. Guess what though? Lenny Harris has been much worse. 2003: Bellhorn - .221/.357/.336 Harris - .209/.293/.284 Despite all of his struggles, Mark Bellhorn is still getting on base about 36% of the time, which is 3rd on the entire team among hitters with 100+ at bats. He's been much better than Harris at everything else too. He's out hitting him in batting average and has a 60+ point edge in OBP and 50 points in slugging. The Chicago Cubs could use someone like Matt Williams, because he would be an upgrade over their current third base situation. However, the only reason he would be an upgrade is that the Cubs refuse to play their best third baseman, a player who is better than Lenny Harris and Matt Williams. I think Dusty Baker is a very good manager and his won-loss record is evidence of that, but he has a huge weakness for bad "veteran" players, like Lenny Harris, Shawon Dunston, Tom Goodwin, etc. Maybe this can turn out well for everyone involved. The Cubs can sign Matt Williams, Lenny Harris can go back to being wrongly proclaimed a great pinch-hitter, Dusty Baker can get that "veteran" at third base and Mark Bellhorn can either get cut by the Cubs and sign somewhere else or maybe even get traded to a team that recognizes him as a better player than Lenny Freaking Harris. Now that I think about it, the Twins have this guy Rivas playing second base (poorly) and sucking up outs at the bottom of the lineup... Ah nevermind. Whereas the Cubs are willing to give up on a guy who slugged .510 the year before after 10 bad games, the Twins will give a guy who is a career .264/.310/.371 hitter hundreds and hundreds of at bats at the major league level because he is "young." Speaking of the Twins, they got swept in four straight games by the Mariners over the weekend (which I'm not worried about, since the Royals are officially back to being the Royals and the White Sox stink right now too). What happened in the first inning of yesterday's game was one of the most amazing and depressing things I have ever witnessed. From ESPN.com's play-by-play: SEATTLE 1STFor those of you scoring at home (and even those of you by yourselves...), that went: single, single, single, single, single, triple, single - all to start the game. At which point, if you had been in my house, you would have heard something along the lines of: @^$^%*&% Rogers $^%*^#^ Rivas $^$@#*&%^% Guzman *$&@%$&%^ Mariners $^#&*#*&%^%!! Today's picks: Arizona (Patterson) -110 over San Diego (Loewer) Colorado (Chacon) +200 over San Francisco (Schmidt) Chicago (Colon) -170 over Cleveland (Anderson) Total to date: + $1,570 W/L record: 109-104 (3-1 on Friday for +210, with one game "no action" because the scheduled starter didn't pitch) *****Comments? Questions? Email me!*****
|
E-Mail: aarongleeman@gmail.com Twitter: twitter.com/aarongleeman  Read Me Elsewhere Rotoworld NBC Sports MinnPost Minnesota Twins Stuff Minneapolis Star Tribune St. Paul Pioneer Press MinnesotaTwins.com LaVelle E. Neal III Joe Christensen Kelsie Smith Kelly Thesier Seth Stohs Stick and Ball Guy Nick Nelson Parker Hageman Phil Mackey John Bonnes Edward Thoma Josh Johnson Howard Sinker Twinkie Town Pat Neshek Sports Stuff Hardball Talk Rotoworld Fan Graphs Baseball-Reference.com The Hardball Times Baseball America Baseball Think Factory Bill Simmons Rob Neyer Joe Posnanski Big League Stew The Big Lead Deadspin Fanhouse Baseball Prospectus U.S.S. Mariner Al's Ramblings Sports By Brooks Baseball Musings MLB Trade Rumors Non-Sports Stuff MinnPost Alan Sepinwall David Brauer Adam Carolla Poker Road Gorilla Mask Wicked Chops Poker WWTDD? Popoholic The Superficial Steve Silver Tao of Poker Discount Sporting Goods   ![[Powered by Blogger]](http://buttons.blogger.com/bloggerbutton1.gif){kind=small}
 Official Fantasy Girl of AG.com OFGoAG.com Timeline: Heidi Klum (8/2002 - 12/2003) Jessica Alba (12/2003 - 10/2004) Elisha Cuthbert (10/2004 - 11/2006) Vacant (11/2006 - 6/2008) Keeley Hazell (6/2008 - 3/2010) Mila Kunis (3/2010 - Present) OFGoAG.com Candidates: Marisa Miller Jenna Fischer Kate Beckinsale Keeley Hazell Diora Baird Top 40 Twins Prospects of 2010: 1. Aaron Hicks, CF 2. Kyle Gibson, SP 3. Wilson Ramos, C 4. Miguel Angel Sano, SS 5. Ben Revere, CF 6. Angel Morales, CF 7. David Bromberg, SP 8. Danny Valencia, 3B 9. Matthew Bashore, SP 10. Billy Bullock, RP 11. Rene Tosoni, RF 12. Chris Parmelee, RF 13. Adrian Salcedo, SP 14. Joe Benson, CF 15. Jeff Manship, SP 16. Tyler Robertson, SP 17. Carlos Gutierrez, RP 18. B.J. Hermsen, SP 19. Anthony Slama, RP 20. Max Kepler, CF 21. Alex Burnett, RP 22. Robert Delaney, RP 23. Luke Hughes, 3B 24. Ben Tootle, RP 25. Deolis Guerra, SP 26. Shooter Hunt, SP 27. Trevor Plouffe, SS 28. Michael McCardell, SP 29. Reggie Williams, 2B 30. Estarlin De Los Santos, SS 31. Derek McCallum, 2B 32. Jose Morales, C 33. Chris Herrmann, LF 34. Bobby Lanigan, SP 35. Danny Rams, C 36. Josmil Pinto, C 37. Steven Tolleson, 2B 38. Anderson Hidalgo, 3B 39. Loek Van Mil, RP 40. Joe Testa, RP |