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A good example of this saying in use would be with Detroit's recent signing of Ivan Rodriguez. The Tigers signed Rodriguez for four years and my response to a contract of that length might be to say: "Pudge is a very good player right now, but he's also a catcher on the wrong side of 30, so there's a good chance he won't be a very good player by the time the contract is over."

Rather than study the peak years and decline years of players, which has been done by people much smarter than me already, I simply want to look at some of the all-time best performances in major league history for players on the right side of 30 and the wrong side of 30.

For the purposes of this little exercise, we'll break down the entire history of baseball into two groups:

1) The right side of 30 (30 and under)

2) The wrong side of 30 (31 and over)

*Lee Sinins' invaluable Sabermetric Baseball Encyclopedia was used to make this possible and only seasons from 1900 to the present are included.

Let's take a look at the leaders...

WINS

 

30 AND UNDER                             31 AND OVER

    

Christy Mathewson           289          Phil Niekro                 264

Walter Johnson              277          Warren Spahn                255

Catfish Hunter              201          Cy Young                    244

George Mullin               195          Gaylord Perry               219

Chief Bender                193          Early Wynn                  199

Bob Feller                  192          Eddie Plank                 197

Hal Newhouser               191          Dazzy Vance                 197

Don Drysdale                190          Lefty Grove                 185

Grover C Alexander          190          Grover C Alexander          183

Wes Ferrell                 190          Nolan Ryan                  183

Grover Cleveland "Pete" Alexander is the only pitcher to appear on both top-10 lists and, not coincidentally, he ranks 3rd all-time in total wins, with 373. Cy Young would also appear on both lists, ranking 3rd on the "30 and Under" list in addition to 3rd on the "31 and Over" list if seasons before 1900 were counted. Young, in addition to having an award named after him, ranks 1st all-time in total wins, with 511.

I think probably the most amazing things to me here are Phil Niekro and Warren Spahn's win totals after the age of 30. If you only take their wins on the wrong side of 30, ignoring what they did in their first three decades on earth, Niekro ranks 36th all-time in career wins and Spahn ranks 38th. To me, that is absolutely amazing.

To put it into a modern-day context, both Phil Niekro and Warren Spahn won more games after the age of 30 than Tom Glavine (251 wins) and Randy Johnson (230) have won in their entire careers.

Niekro didn't get a chance to be a starting pitcher until he was 28 years old. In his first year starting games, 1967, he pitched 207 innings with a league-leading 1.87 ERA. He went on to pitch until he was 48 years old, starting a total of 716 games, which ranks 4th all-time.

Spahn pitched 15.2 innings as a 21-year-old and then didn't return to the major leagues until he was 25. He then pitched at least 240 innings in every season from the time he was 26 until he was 42. For the mathematically-challenged among us, that means he pitched 240+ innings in 17 straight seasons. During that time, he had an ERA above 3.50 just once (3.71 as a 27-year-old) and posted an ERA below 3.00 eight times.

Greg Maddux (165), Roger Clemens (163) and Pedro Martinez (152) are the active leaders in wins through the age of 30, while Randy Johnson (149), Clemens (147) and David Wells (142) are the top three active winners after turning 30.

HOME RUNS

 

30 AND UNDER                             31 AND OVER

    

Ken Griffey Jr.             438          Babe Ruth                   405

Jimmie Foxx                 429          Hank Aaron                  389

Mickey Mantle               404          Barry Bonds                 366

Eddie Mathews               399          Mark McGwire                345

Frank Robinson              373          Willie Mays                 341

Mel Ott                     369          Rafael Palmeiro             334

Hank Aaron                  366          Andres Galarraga            292

Juan Gonzalez               362          Reggie Jackson              282 

Alex Rodriguez              345          Hank Sauer                  281

Sammy Sosa                  336          Willie Stargell             279 

Harmon Killebrew            336

Unlike the wins leaderboards, the home run leaderboards are filled with guys from this era. The 30 and Under list includes four players who are active and the 31 and Over list includes three, plus Mark McGwire, who retired just a few years ago.

I think my favorite thing from the home run leaders is that Alex Rodriguez ranks 9th all-time in homers through the age of 30. This might not seem particularly interesting, except for the fact that Rodriguez will be playing his age-28 season in 2004. That means he's got three seasons to add to his 30 and Under total, which likely means he'll be at the top of the list at some point.

ARod has averaged 52 homers a season over the last three years. If he can duplicate those numbers over the next three years, that would put him at 501 career homers through the age of 30. That's nearly 15% more than the current 30 and Under leader, Ken Griffey Jr.

Another active player, Barry Bonds, is in a position to become the all-time leader in homers after the age of 30 this season. He needs 40 homers to jump over Hank Aaron and Babe Ruth, and Bonds has hit 40+ homers in each of the last four seasons, including 45 last year.

Speaking of Hank Aaron, he is the only player to appear in both top-10s, ranking 7th all-time in homers through age-30 and 2nd all-time in homers after age-30. Aaron is, of course, the all-time total home run leader with 755, although Bonds is about two good seasons away from passing him.

Sammy Sosa ranks 10th all-time in homers before age-30 and he already has 203 career homers after age-30, despite being just 34 years old last season. With two more typical Sosa years, he'll also be on both lists.

Mike Schmidt is the only player among the top 10 all-time home run leaders who doesn't make the top 10 for 30 and Under or 31 and Over. Schmidt's 548 career homers ranks 9th all-time, but he hit "only" 283 homers through age-30 and just 265 after age-30.

The only name on either home run list that isn't a household name to most baseball fans (myself included) is probably Hank Sauer, who ranks 9th all-time in homers after the age of 30, with 281. Sauer appeared in a total of just 47 games in his 20s and played his first full-season as a 31-year-old in 1948. He hit .260/.340/.504 that year, finishing 4th in the league in homers with 35.

Despite his incredibly late start, Sauer hit 30+ homers in each of his first five full-seasons, including a 37 HR/121 RBI season in 1952, which got him the NL MVP. He then hit just 19 homers in 1953, but bounced back in 1954 and hit a career-high 41 homers, which was good for 3rd in the league.

Sauer finished his career with 288 homers in just 1,399 games. Among non-active players with fewer than 1,400 career games, Sauer ranks 2nd all-time, behind only Hank Greenberg and his 331 homers in 1,394 games.

RUNS CREATED ABOVE AVERAGE

*Runs Created Above Average (RCAA) is a Lee Sinins stat that is defined as "the difference between a player's Runs Created total and the total for an average player who used the same amount of his team's outs."

30 AND UNDER                             31 AND OVER

    

Ty Cobb                     909          Babe Ruth                   929

Mickey Mantle               896          Barry Bonds                 817

Babe Ruth                   866          Ted Williams                612

Ted Williams                863          Honus Wagner                552

Jimmie Foxx                 842          Edgar Martinez              537

Lou Gehrig                  784          Stan Musial                 478

Rogers Hornsby              770          Willie Mays                 477

Mel Ott                     741          Tris Speaker                466

Stan Musial                 726          Lou Gehrig                  463

Frank Thomas                607          Ty Cobb                     460

The best 30 and Under hitter in baseball history? According to RCAA, it is Ty Cobb. Through his age-30 season, Cobb was a career .370/.434/.516 hitter with 2,361 hits, 1,077 RBIs, 1,240 runs scored and 704 stolen bases. He also had already won nine batting titles while leading his league in OPS+ 10 times.

The entire 30 and Under RCAA leaderboard is really a who's who of inner-circle Hall of Fame hitters. Cobb, Mantle, Ruth, Williams, Foxx, Gehrig, Hornsby, Ott, Musial. Even Frank Thomas, the only active player on the list and someone whom I think is often overlooked, deserves to be mentioned in the same breath as those all-time greats.

One thing I noticed looking at those two lists is how much higher the RCAA totals are for the 30 and Under guys. All 10 of the 30 and Under leaders were 600+ RCAA, while just three hitters reached 600+ RCAA after they turned 30. All of which would go along with the idea that there is such a thing as "the wrong side of 30."

Cobb, Ruth, Williams, Gehrig and Musial each appear in both the 30 and Under and 31 and Over top-10s for RCAA. As I talked about in some depth last month, Ted Williams' RCAA rankings (4th and 3rd) are particularly impressive, considering he missed all of his age-24, 25 and 26 seasons, as well as almost all of his age-33 and 34 seasons while serving his country. Despite missing all that time, Williams still ranks 2nd all-time in career RCAA, behind only Babe Ruth. For more on Ted Williams and his missed seasons, check out this entry from last month.

Edgar Martinez's appearance on the 31 and Over RCAA leaderboard was surprising to me. I am generally of the opinion that Martinez has been underrated for a long time, but apparently even I am guilty of that in this case. Edgar wasn't an everyday player until he was 27 and he still ranks 5th among all active players in career RCAA. And, as you can see above, he is 2nd to only Bonds among active players in RCAA after the age of 30.

What exactly does all this stuff mean? Well, I'm not sure exactly, but I thought it was interesting. In case you're curious, the following players will be "on the wrong side of 30" for the first time in their careers in 2004:

HITTERS               PITCHERS

Shawn Green           Bartolo Colon

Mike Cameron          Jason Schmidt

Cliff Floyd           Keith Foulke

Corey Koskie          Derek Lowe

Scott Spiezio         Brad Radke

Todd Walker           Mike Hampton

Jay Payton            Latroy Hawkins

David Bell            Ryan Franklin

Alex Gonzalez         Armando Benitez

Chris Singleton       Brett Tomko

Deivi Cruz            Shawn Estes

Pokey Reese           Jason Isringhausen

Neifi Perez           Ramon Ortiz

Interestingly enough, studies suggest that the decline phase for baseball bloggers begins much earlier than the decline phase for baseball players. Luckily I still have some time left before I'm on the wrong side of 22.