April 10, 2005

Santana, Twins Avoid Sweep

  • Johan Santana once again struggled in the early innings last night, giving up a run in the first and another in the third, but he was extremely good after that. In fact, from the fourth inning on Santana was about as good as he ever was during his amazing second-half run last season. After Torii Hunter got Santana off the hook by putting the Twins up 4-2 in the bottom of the third, here's what Santana did:

    Walk
    Ground Out
    Strikeout (Swinging)
    Strikeout (Swinging)
    Strikeout (Swinging)
    Strikeout (Looking)
    Single
    Single
    Strikeout (Swinging)
    Strikeout (Swinging)
    Strikeout (Swinging)
    Ground Out
    Double
    Strikeout (Swinging)
    Strikeout (Looking)
    Ground Out

    Santana's overall line (7 IP, 7 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 11 SO) was impressive enough, but even more encouraging is how strong he finished. If he can simply get rolling immediately at some point, rather than feeling his way through the first few innings, he'll be right back where he was last year. If you ignore the first inning of each of Santana's starts, here is his pitching line for the season:

      IP     H     R     ER     BB     SO     HR
    10.0 6 1 1 1 16 0

    Incidentally, hearing Jon Miller and Joe Morgan gush over Santana was a very nice change of pace from hearing Dick Bremer and Bert Blyleven gush over Santana. I found the Sunday Night Baseball broadcast unusually tolerable. Of course, my favorite part of the broadcast was Morgan's random happy birthday wish to the son of a non-famous person no one has ever heard of in the sixth inning. It is a weekly occurrence, but last night's was particularly enjoyable because it seemed to catch Miller a little bit off-guard.

  • Carlos Silva's knee injury is a big blow to the team. Losing a pitcher who had a 4.21 ERA last season may not seem like much of a problem, but it goes beyond that. Silva was being counted on to eat innings, as he did in his first start of the season by going seven innings despite allowing nine hits. Plus, Kyle Lohse appears to have picked up right where he left off last year and Joe Mays remains a big question mark, so the rotation isn't exactly well-equipped to handle losing its #3 guy.

    The timing of Silva's injury is particularly hard to handle. If he had gone down with a week left in spring training, the Twins could have bumped Lohse into the third spot, let Mays fill in for him in the fourth spot, and made an organizational decision on what to do when they needed a fifth starter (they skipped that spot the first time through the rotation). Instead, they got one good start from Silva and now have to scramble to fill his spot in the rotation, which was shown by the team calling up Dave Gassner, rather than Scott Baker or J.D. Durbin.

    With several early off days and what they thought was five starters ready to go, I think it is clear that the Twins decided to send Baker and Durbin down to the minors with the idea that they would each get at least a couple months' worth of seasoning. Rather than stray from that plan now that a sudden injury has come up one week into the season, Gassner gets the call. It's not necessarily a bad thing -- I am all for sticking to plans despite adversity -- but the team may have planned differently had they discovered that Silva needed major surgery three weeks ago.

    While he pitched in relief this weekend, Mays still has yet to make a start since the middle of the 2003 season, so at the very least he may struggle initially. If that happens and Lohse continues to stink, the starting rotation could go from being a major strength to a major mess in the span of a week. It's a shame too, because I was looking forward to seeing whether or not Silva could repeat his 2004 performance in his second year as a full-time starting pitcher (I was on record as saying he would).

  • As for Gassner ... I know a lot of people have been clamoring for him to get a chance based on his season at Triple-A Rochester last year (16-8 with a 3.41 ERA in 28 starts), but he is not the answer. A 25-year-old who strikes out just 93 batters in 174.1 innings at Triple-A simply isn't going to miss enough bats to be a quality starting pitcher in the major leagues, regardless of how good his control is. He could prove me wrong, of course, and he has certainly had enough sustained success in the minors to warrant getting a chance, but I just don't see it.

    I expect the team to give shots to Gassner, Matt Guerrier (who is basically a right-handed version of Gassner), and Terry Mulholland (who is basically an elderly version of Gassner) over the next month or two, but if Silva is truly out for the majority of the season, a legitimate prospect with enough "stuff" to be a successful long-term answer will eventually get a chance. Who knows, if Baker is the one to get the call and he ends up pitching well, the team could be even stronger down the stretch if Silva returns from the disabled list at some point. (And yes, that was my lame attempt at optimism.)

  • Oh, and to close the book on Silva's injury for today, I just want to say how completely sick of injuries I am right now. Joe Mauer's knee, Jason Kubel's exploding leg, Justin Morneau walking around like a zombie, Grant Balfour's strained forearm, and now Silva's knee. Add in Nick Punto's broken collarbone last year right when he was about to take Luis Rivas' job and the fact that Mays is just now coming back from Tommy John surgery and ... well, I'm tired of it. No more, I give up.
  • The Twins' defense did not look good over the weekend, but I'm not overly concerned. Michael Cuddyer has committed three errors already at third base, but he has also made a number of very nice plays over there and the error he got on Tadahito Iguchi's first-inning grounder Saturday night seemed a little iffy to me. Similarly, Jason Bartlett has been far from flawless at shortstop, but he is making the majority of the plays and it should be noted that this is really his first taste of playing regularly on the Metrodome turf.

    Matthew LeCroy looked extremely rough at first base, but no one is counting on him to be Keith Hernandez over there as long as Morneau returns fairly soon. The most concerning thing to me about the defense continues to be Ron Gardenhire playing Shannon Stewart in left field over Lew Ford. The ball that bounced out of Stewart's glove as he dove for the catch Friday night? Ford may not have made the catch either, but the fact that there is even some doubt is what bugs me about the situation.

  • Is anyone else bothered by the fact that Gardenhire bats LeCroy cleanup against right-handed pitching in what is surely only because that's where Morneau would have hit? Same thing with Juan Castro batting second in place of Bartlett last night.
  • A few notes on the White Sox ... Orlando Hernandez looked great Friday night, and his staying healthy for 180+ innings this year could be one of the biggest keys to the American League Central race. I love watching him pitch. Dustin Hermanson also looked very good Friday night, which could become important if Shingo Takatsu continues to struggle this year.

    I am amused by how everyone in Chicago hopped back on to the "small ball" bandwagon once the White Sox won a couple games in a row. The fact is that Chicago hit five home runs in the two games they won this series and scored seven of their 13 runs in those games on homers, regardless of how much lip service people feel compelled to give Scott Podsednik for running really fast a couple times. Just because Ozzie Guillen keeps saying something over and over doesn't make it so. With that said, the Twins may want to work a little bit on their bunt defense.

    I would say something sarcastic about Timo Perez batting fifth Saturday night, while Aaron Rowand, A.J. Pierzynski, Joe Crede, and Juan Uribe hit behind him, but he homered off Brad Radke in the seventh inning. So instead I'll just shut up.

  • It is obviously never good to lose a series, particularly to Chicago, but all in all I'm not disappointed with being 3-3 after six games. Interestingly, the Twins were 3-3 after six games in each of the past two seasons, and that was while opening both years with easier schedules than the one they've played so far. Splitting against two teams that figure to both win 80+ games this year, while playing one of the series on the road, isn't bad at all. Remember, slow and steady wins the race in the AL Central.
  • Today at The Hardball Times:
    - The Hot Corner (by Aaron Gleeman)
    - Rivals in Exile: Way Too Early (by Ben Jacobs and Larry Mahnken)

    Today's Picks (8-4, +$500):
    Chicago (Garcia) -100 over Cleveland (Millwood)

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