AaronGleeman.com

Before I get to the good stuff, please note that these are not my rankings of the Twins' top prospects. That annual list will be published later this offseason and includes both multi-year track records and long-term potential as huge factors, whereas the numbers below focus solely on what each player did this year. The point here is to simply determine who had the best 2007 season by putting everyone's numbers through the same context-adjusting system.

The first step is taking raw numbers and adjusting them for run-scoring environments, with the idea being that everyone should first be placed on an even playing field before evaluating their performance. For example, former first-round pick Chris Parmelee batted just .239/.313/.414 in 128 games at low Single-A, which looks horrible at first glance. However, the Midwest League as a whole batted just .255/.324/.372 while scoring 8.6 combined runs per game in 2007.

The run-scoring environment that Parmelee played in this season was about 12 percent worse for offense than MLB, which is a big part of his underwhelming numbers. Once you normalize the Midwest League to fit the level of offense found in MLB, then Parmelee's hitting line improves to .251/.325/.471. That's still not great, but it's well above average and clearly superior to his raw numbers while better showing the significant power potential that Parmelee (pictured below) possesses.

Parmelee slugging just .414 this season is misleading, because he played in a league where hitting for power was exceptionally difficult. Once you account for that his adjusted slugging percentage jumps to .471, which shows him in a completely different light. Because the Twins' minor-league system is filled with teams playing in poor run-scoring environments, normalizing their organization-wide hitting numbers causes nearly every position player to receive a Parmelee-like boost.

Even after those adjustments the Twins still boast one of the weakest collections of hitting prospects in baseball, but as a group their position players weren't nearly as inept as the raw numbers suggest. Putting hitting prospects in leagues where the average team doesn't even slug .400 will do a lot to skew the perception of their ability and that's the case throughout the Twins' system. Once you account for run-scoring environments, here are the top adjusted 2007 hitting lines from Twins minor leaguers:

                       PA      AVG      OBP      SLG      OPSDeibinson Romero      304     .328     .409     .560     .969Ozzie Lewis           261     .337     .378     .584     .962Ben Revere            216     .346     .393     .543     .936Brian Buscher         431     .316     .388     .540     .928Rene Leveret          283     .320     .403     .517     .920Rene Tosoni           297     .314     .411     .478     .889Brock Peterson        455     .290     .383     .505     .888Danny Valencia        521     .308     .363     .518     .881Brian Dinkelman       570     .280     .378     .493     .871Matthew Macri         357     .298     .348     .519     .867Erik Lis              539     .281     .340     .519     .859Wilson Ramos          316     .306     .358     .498     .856Johnny Woodard        436     .250     .361     .490     .851Garrett Jones         446     .286     .338     .507     .845Juan Richardson       220     .337     .368     .472     .840Garrett Guzman        526     .318     .360     .480     .840Dustin Martin         552     .298     .368     .470     .838Luke Hughes           362     .288     .357     .464     .821Mark Dolenc           265     .299     .384     .436     .820Darnell McDonald      556     .304     .366     .454     .820Steven Tolleson       571     .293     .395     .422     .817Rashad Eldridge       407     .297     .361     .455     .816Matt Tolbert          477     .300     .357     .457     .814Jose Morales          411     .318     .370     .427     .797Chris Parmelee        501     .251     .325     .471     .796Juan Portes           552     .276     .342     .453     .795Yangervis Solarte     203     .322     .346     .444     .790Tommy Watkins         402     .278     .353     .433     .786Joe Benson            507     .268     .360     .418     .778Jeanfred Brito        229     .308     .333     .443     .776

Plenty of the organization's hitting prospects had solid seasons at the plate, although five of the top six came from rookie-ball players who batted under 300 times. Even adjusted, those numbers are the product of a small sample of playing time and should also be taken with a grain of salt for another reason that I'll get into momentarily. Among players who batted at least 400 times, Brian Buscher put together the best season with an adjusted hitting line of .316/.388/.540 between Double-A and Triple-A.

The trio of rookie-ball hitters whose seasons ranked above Buscher--Deibinson Romero, Ozzie Lewis, and Ben Revere--show the importance of the next step, which is making further adjustments for age and defensive position. In other words, how does each player's offense compare to other players at his position and how old was each player relative to the prospects he was playing against. If you take the normalized numbers above and apply further adjustments based on age and position, you get:

                      AGE     LEVEL     POS     OPS%Wilson Ramos           19     A-          C     1.31Deibinson Romero       20     RK/A-      3B     1.23Ben Revere             19     RK         CF     1.22Jose Morales           24     AAA         C     1.20Trevor Plouffe         21     AA         SS     1.17Luke Hughes            22     AA         2B     1.15Brock Peterson         23     AA         1B     1.13Joe Benson             19     A-         CF     1.13Brian Buscher          26     AA/AAA     3B     1.12Danny Valencia         22     A-/A+      3B     1.11Matt Tolbert           25     AAA        2B     1.11Alexi Casilla          22     AAA        2B     1.11Chris Parmelee         19     A-         RF     1.10Matthew Macri          25     AA/AAA     3B     1.10Rene Tosoni            20     RK/A-      RF     1.10Brian Dinkelman        23     A-/A+      2B     1.09Ozzie Lewis            21     RK         LF     1.08Brandon Roberts        22     AA         CF     1.07David Winfree          21     AA         1B     1.07Steven Tolleson        23     A+         SS     1.07Garrett Guzman         24     AA         LF     1.05Juan Portes            21     A+         3B     1.05Johnny Woodard         22     A-/A+      1B     1.05Garrett Jones          26     AAA        LF     1.05Dustin Martin          23     A+         CF     1.04Denard Span            23     AAA        CF     1.04Erik Lis               23     A+         LF     1.02Tommy Watkins          27     AAA        SS     1.02Jeanfred Brito         19     RK         2B     1.02Rashad Eldridge        25     AA         CF     1.02

Shown above is a player's age this season, which level(s) he played at, which position he primarily manned, and how his context-adjusted offense compared to "average." For instance, Parmelee was 19 years old, spent the entire season at low Single-A, played primarily right field, and was about 10 percent above average offensively once everything was taken into account. The first list took only offense and run-scoring environment into account, while this list also factored in age and position.

The two rankings are very different and a look at the aforementioned rookie-ball trio of Romero, Lewis, and Revere helps shows why. All three players posted an adjusted OPS above .900 while playing at rookie-ball, but Romero and Revere stay at the top of the second list while Lewis drops from second to 17th. The reason for that is two-fold, with the first being that Lewis split time between left field and designated hitter, while Revere (pictured below) manned center field and Romero played third base.

The further down the "defensive spectrum" that a player moves, the less impressive that his hitting becomes relative to other players at his position. In other words, a .900 OPS is much better coming from a shortstop than a first baseman. Lewis is essentially at the bottom of the defensive spectrum, while Revere is at the top and Romero is in the middle. Toss in their projected defensive value and it's easy to see why Lewis' .900 OPS doesn't look quite as impressive as it did initially.

Beyond that, Revere and Romero both joined the Twins' system without playing college ball and played this season at 19 and 20 years old, respectively. Meanwhile, Lewis played three years at Fresno State before being drafted and was 21 years old this season. The difference between 19, 20, and 21 may not seem like much, but even one year is huge when it comes to projecting player development and evaluating someone's performance in the low minors.

Plenty of 21-years-olds who're drafted out of college thrive at rookie-ball, in large part because they're older and have more high-level experience than most of the players they're competing against. Plus, the Twins have several 21-year-olds already at Double-A. On the surface Romero, Lewis, and Revere had similar seasons offensively, but dig a little deeper and you can see that Lewis' year wasn't on the same level. The same logic also holds true beyond rookie-ball, although perhaps to a lesser extent.

Based purely on offense Garrett Jones had the 14th-best season of any hitter in the Twins' system, but he was also a 26-year-old playing his third season at Triple-A and was limited to first base or an outfield corner defensively. Once you take Jones' normalized numbers and adjust them further for his age and position, he drops to 24th on the list. While guys like Lewis and Jones move down on the second list, up-the-middle defenders who were young for their leagues move up.

In particular, adjusting for age and position pushes Wilson Ramos into the top spot after ranking 12th on the offense-only list. Ramos batted .291/.345/.438 at low Single-A, which works out to an adjusted hitting line of .306/.358/.498. That nice line gets even nicer when you consider that Ramos was a 19-year-old catcher. An .856 OPS from anyone is good, but an .856 OPS from a teenager manning arguably the most important defensive position while playing in a full-season league is fantastic.

Once you account for the run-scoring environment that he played in and adjust for both position and age, Ramos' 2007 season was about 31 percent above average offensively. That's an amazing year for a prospect who many observers think can potentially be a tremendous defensive catcher and Ramos leads the way among a total of 30 Twins minor leaguers who were above average offensively while batting at least 200 times.

Among hitters who came to the plate at least 400 times, Triple-A Rochester's Jose Morales--last seen suffering a gruesome ankle injury during a call-up with the Twins--was best at around 20 percent above average thanks to being a 24-year-old catcher with a .318/.370/.427 adjusted hitting line. Also having strong context-adjusted seasons in 400-plus plate appearances were Trevor Plouffe, Brock Peterson, Joe Benson, Danny Valencia, Matt Tolbert, Parmelee, and Buscher.

Putting a player's numbers in context is even more important in the minors, because the differences between ballparks, leagues, and run-scoring environments are often far more extreme than in the majors. For an example, take a look at how different the two Triple-A leagues are when it comes to offense. As a whole, the Pacific Coast League batted .279/.346/.437 and saw 10.3 runs scored per game. Meanwhile, the International League batted .262/.332/.395 and saw 8.7 runs scored per game.

Most people wouldn't think twice about saying that a pitcher "had a 4.00 ERA at Triple-A," but "Triple-A" can be vastly different depending on the league. A 4.00 ERA in the Pacific Coast League was fantastic in 2007, checking in at about 15 percent better than average. Meanwhile, that same 4.00 ERA in the International League was actually worse than average in 2007. In fact, a 4.00 ERA in the PCL was roughly equivalent to a 3.30 ERA in the IL, and that's far from the most extreme league-to-league gap.

Beyond leagues, ballparks, and run-scoring environments, there are also factors like age, defense, and multi-year track records. For an example, compare Garrett Jones hitting .280/.334/.473 at Triple-A with Trevor Plouffe batting .274/.326/.410 at Double-A. With a 71-point edge in OPS, Jones' season appears on the surface to be much better. However, look deeper and there's little doubt that Plouffe had the more impressive season and is the superior prospect.

Jones was a first baseman playing his third season at Triple-A and at 26 years old was 1-2 years older than most of his competition. Plouffe was a shortstop getting his first taste of Double-A and at 21 years old was 2-3 years younger than most of his competition. For Jones and Plouffe, putting their numbers in context casts their performances in a completely different light, and the same can be said for players throughout the Twins' minor-league system.

In an effort to create an even playing field for evaluating how Twins minor leaguers performed in 2007, I've created a quick-and-dirty system that normalizes all leagues and run-scoring environments to fit the level of offense in MLB this season (.268/.336/.423 with 9.6 combined runs per game). I've also put in adjustments for a player's defensive position and age relative to the level he played at, so that guys like Jones and Plouffe can be compared properly.

On an organization-wide level much has been made, both here and elsewhere, of the Twins' lack of quality position-player prospects. That's accurate and it's telling that among all the position players in the entire Twins minor-league system who batted at least 350 times, not a single hitter posted an OPS of even .900. However, the system also features extremely pitcher-friendly run-scoring environments at every level, which means that the sub par numbers are much better than they initially appear.

Meanwhile, even more has been made of the Twins' abundance of quality pitching prospects. While also accurate, those same pitcher-friendly run-scoring environments play a big part in the pretty ERAs that were posted throughout the system. Just as the lack of .900-OPS hitters can't be written off entirely to a dearth of position-player talent, the system's never-ending stream of 3.00 ERAs can't be credited entirely to great pitching talent. Over the next few days I'll try to put all of that in context.

Previous experience with WhatIfSports, and especially Hardball Dynasty, is a substantial plus, but not necessarily required. However, Hardball Dynasty is unique and nothing like fantasy baseball, so you should at least read up on it before deciding if it's for you. If you're interested in claiming a spot and aren't worried about real-life responsibilities getting in the way of running a fake baseball team made up of pretend players, drop me an e-mail.

Would you eat the moon if it were made of spare ribs?

No, I'm back on a diet.

Ever thought of expanding AG.com to include a Vikings blog during the Twins' offseason?

Football is at best my third-favorite sport and from September to January I write about it six days a week over at Rotoworld, so when it comes time for this blog that's just about the last topic on my mind. Plus, at this point regularly blogging about the Vikings sounds like some sort of court-ordered punishment for law-breaking writers.

Can you settle on an Official Fantasy Girl of AG.com?

Apparently not.

When does the real debate about the next Official Fantasy Girl of AG.com start?

The debate is always ongoing.

Who is in the pool of candidates?

Previous titleholders Heidi Klum, Jessica Alba, and Elisha Cuthbert will always be factors, but the top candidates at this point are Keeley Hazell and Jenna Fischer. However, they've been the leading contenders for several months now and the throne remains vacant, so it's safe to say that I'm waiting for a new third-party candidate to emerge. As Saint Augustine once said, "Patience is the companion of wisdom."

If forced to choose between the two, would you rather watch an hour of Nick Punto at-bats or listen to an hour of a Jeff Straub podcast?

This is an easy question, because I'm a huge Jeff Straub fan. The podcast that he devoted to me was absolutely brilliant and a true comedic masterpiece, even if he didn't mean for it to be that way. I linked to the podcast here, tried my best to keep the site that hosted it from censoring him, and made sure that everyone in my family listened to it. In particular, my grandfather seems fascinated by Straub, bringing him up often. Meanwhile, everyone just tries to forget every Nick Punto at-bat they've seen.

Any good restaurant recommendations in the Highland Park neighborhood?

I grew up in Highland Park, but spent most of my childhood eating at chains and haven't lived there in about eight years. With that said, there's a good Chinese buffet on West 7th Street called Buffet King.

Who is your favorite ESPN.com writer?

Last week in this space I discussed being a huge Bill Simmons fan and I've talked several times in the past about idolizing Rob Neyer, who was basically my introduction into the world of baseball analysis. Beyond Simmons and Neyer, I also enjoy John Hollinger, Peter Gammons, Len Pasquarelli, Keith Law, Chad Ford, Jerry Crasnick, Eric Neel, D.J. Gallo, Jonah Keri, Marc Stein, Matt Mosley, and Mike Sando. And I'm sure there are another handful of names that I'm forgetting.

Can you get me a date with the hot girl from your NBCSports.com videos?

Tiffany Simons is easy on the eyes, likes sports, has a good sense of humor, and is extremely nice, so my guess is that she has enough suitors to avoid getting hooked up via my blog. With that said, there's a chance that I could get you a date with her co-host, Gregg Rosenthal.

Do you think that you'll ever beat me in checkers?

This question comes from a fellow University of Minnesota journalism-school student who faced off against me in virtual checkers hundreds of times over the course of a semester while we sat in the computer lab during a "magazine editing and production" class, which perhaps provides a glimpse into why I never did graduate.

This summer you wrote that the breakdown of your air-conditioning unit had a negative impact on your mood and ability to blog. Yet you've also expressed an extreme dislike of indoor baseball, specifically the Metrodome. How do you reconcile these two opinions on climate control?

Baseball is meant to be played outside. Sitting around the house and typing on a laptop is meant to be played inside.

Do you have any interesting pre-SABR convention travel plans coming up?

The annual Society for American Baseball Research convention tends to be my lone vacation each year, although next week I'm flying to Milwaukee for a long weekend. I'm fairly certain that three nights in Milwaukee isn't most people's idea of "interesting," but I'm looking forward to it. Other than that, it's all work and no play until the 2008 convention in Cleveland.

Are you going to the Winter Meetings again?

It doesn't look like it. A big part of why NBCSports.com sent me to the Winter Meetings last December was that they didn't have any other baseball writers on staff yet. Now the site features columns from Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News and Tony Massarotti of the Boston Herald, both of whom will presumably be at the Winter Meetings for their newspapers anyway.

Better career: Adrian Peterson or Reggie Bush?

I wrote about favoring Adrian Peterson over Reggie Bush when they were both still in college, saying the following about Bush when he was nearing the end of his Heisman Trophy-winning season back in 2005:

I still have some questions about his ability to be an every-down back in the NFL, particularly near the goal line, and I wonder how he'll fare when he doesn't have as many opportunities to run in open space.

I got quite a bit of criticism for that and for favoring Peterson, but my feelings haven't changed. Bush is a fantastic talent and I'm sure that he'll have a great career, but so far he's averaging 3.6 yards per carry and 7.6 yards per catch. Peterson is leading the NFL in rushing despite having two-thirds as many carries as his closest competitors. For as much national attention as Purple Jesus has gotten already, the hype would be off the charts if the Vikings would actually get him the ball 20 times per game.

If you stopped linking to pictures of scantily-clad starlets, would you lose readers? And if so, how many?

I receive more e-mails and comments about the Official Fantasy Girl of AG.com stuff than just about anything else, which you can see from the multiple OFGoAG.com-related questions today. While the dominant topic here is the Twins, this blog has also always covered stuff that has nothing to do with baseball and everything to do with whatever interests me. It's possible that certain non-baseball topics push people away, but the odd mix of topics is likely a big part of why many people enjoy the site.

Would you anticipate gaining new readers (presumably female) from such a change?

Perhaps, but not many. First, the linking to pictures of women is generally reserved for Friday entries, which are pretty clearly not related to baseball for anyone who wishes to skip them rather than be offended. Beyond that, the actual number of links to "pictures of scantily-clad starlets" tends to be pretty minimal. For instance, last week's Link-O-Rama contained only one such link and the same is true for the previous week's entry.

In fact, the Link-O-Rama on October 5 was completely devoid of such links, which caused someone to leave a note in the comments section that read: "No links to hot women? You're losing it, Gleeman." I once assumed that this site's readership was pretty close to 100 percent male, but I've been pleasantly surprised by the number of regular female readers over the years. Plus, if someone is truly offended by non-nude pictures of beautiful women, then I don't mind not having them as a reader.

Why don't you write for The Hardball Times any more?

I co-created The Hardball Times along with Matthew Namee back in early 2004, and for several years I served as editor-in-chief and near-daily columnist while running the site alongside Dave Studenmund. Unfortunately, I had to give up my involvement in THT as part of my contract with NBCSports.com and Rotoworld, but the site and its annual book are thriving without me and remain must-reads for baseball fans.

What is your official title at Rotoworld and NBCSports.com?

It says "Senior Editor" on my business card.

Who do you think is a better wide receiver, Randy Moss or Terrell Owens?

Terrell Owens is obviously very good, but when healthy and motivated there are few wide receivers in NFL history who can compete with Randy Moss.

What are your thoughts on "suiting up" to go to a casino?

I'm not sure what this means, but generally speaking I'm in favor of anything that promotes gambling.

What should have been my reaction when some random guy at Canterbury Park told me that I look like Nick Punto? Was it merely an attempt to put me on tilt?

Punto doesn't strike me as a bad-looking guy. If the person at Canterbury Park had told you that you hit like Punto, then those might have been fighting words.