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Friday, October 30, 2009
Link-O-RamaSay what you will about Mac's love letter to Chase Utley, but at least he has good taste. - Baseball's most underrated player: Utley - Where does Lee's gem rank in World Series history? - Did Coghlan have a "historic" rookie year? - Diamondbacks prospect Parker blogging about Tommy John surgery - Manny "planning to" exercise $20 million option, stay with Dodgers - Astros hire Red Sox bench coach Mills as new manager - Guerrero and his mom want to re-sign with Angels - La Russa returning as Cardinals manager - Johjima returns to Japan with $21 million deal - How good is Lackey and how rich is he about to be? Once you're done here, check out my NBCSports.com blog and Twitter updates.
Wednesday, October 28, 2009
Joe Needs a Caddy: Redmond or Morales?Redmond signed a two-year, $1.8 million contract with the Twins as a free agent in November of 2005 after spending the first seven seasons of his career with the Marlins and then agreed to a three-year, $2.85 million extension in mid-2006. He's been a near-perfect fit in Minnesota, serving as the veteran, right-handed-hitting backup for the young, left-handed-hitting Joe Mauer while batting .297/.339/.359, throwing out 30 percent of steal attempts, and emerging as a team leader (and source of nude hijinks). He's remained a productive player far longer than most catchers, but Redmond has shown significant signs of decline both offensively and defensively over the past two seasons, batting .261/.310/.311 and throwing out 10-of-63 steal attempts. Even that kind of minimal hitting and weak-armed defense would leave Redmond as a reasonable backup catcher because the standard for that job is so low, but he can't be counted on to avoid further decline at age 39 and the Twins have another in-house option. Jose Morales shared catching duties with Redmond while Mauer spent all of April on the disabled list and hit .340/.380/.404 in 50 plate appearances, but was sent back to Triple-A once Mauer returned. He was called up again a couple weeks later and went 7-for-20 (.350) in a bench role before heading back to Rochester, where he hit .336/.413/.436 in 58 games. Morales rejoined the Twins for a third and final time when rosters expanded in September, hitting .269/.361/.308 in frequent starts at designated hitter. Morales has batted .328 through his first 55 games in the majors, which along with Ron Gardenhire turning to him as the DH down the stretch has the fans who don't know any better assuming that he's destined to be an impact hitter. In reality Morales will be 27 years old next season and failed to homer in 134 plate appearances with the Twins after going deep a grand total of eight times in 868 trips to the plate at Triple-A, so he's not exactly destined for stardom. However, he's a switch-hitter with a line-drive swing who rarely strikes out and draws plenty of walks, which combined with being somewhere between atrocious and passable defensively behind the plate makes him a very solid backup catcher. Morales has hit .317/.373/.413 in 222 games at Triple-A and .328/.394/.385 in 55 games with the Twins, so a reasonable projection for him going forward is likely pretty similar to the .297/.339/.359 line that Redmond produced over the past five seasons. The downside to Morales is that his defensive reputation pales in comparison to Redmond and his bat was more potent versus right-handed pitching in the minors, which makes him a less ideal fit to back up a catcher who should take most of his days off versus left-handed pitching. The upside to Morales is that he's a dozen years younger than Redmond and would probably be significantly more productive offensively if pressed into a full-time role because of a Mauer injury. My guess is that the decision to let Redmond depart as a free agent while turning backup duties over to Morales won't be an easy one for a team that no doubt places a huge amount of value on the veteran's leadership and experience, but realistically going younger and cheaper in the role makes sense given Morales' track record over the past three years. Don't let his batting average fool you into thinking that Morales has star upside, but he's earned a chance and is a better bet than a 39-year-old Redmond. Once you're done here, check out my NBCSports.com blog and Twitter updates.
Monday, October 26, 2009
Should The Twins Trade Nathan?![]() Removing two bone chips from the elbow of a 34-year-old pitcher like Nathan is a bigger deal, but the procedure is still not considered especially risky. For instance, Johan Santana had bone chips taken out of his left elbow in October of 2003 and won his first Cy Young award in 2004 by going 20-6 with a league-leading 2.61 ERA and 265 strikeouts while not missing a start. Nathan is a higher risk due to his age and somewhat diminished velocity over the past two years, but there's still no reason to panic. There's also no reason to assume that the bone chips "explain" his ugly postseason outing against the Yankees in Game 2 of the ALDS given that his elbow felt strong enough for him to finish the regular season by converting 13 straight saves with a 1.17 ERA and 19-to-5 strikeout-to-walk ratio in his final 15 appearances. And really there's no reason to "explain" one game, however awful, although certainly plenty of fans and media members are willing to equate the outing to some sort of weakness mentally. During the regular season Nathan blew five saves and allowed seven homers, so his blowing a save against the best offense in baseball by allowing a homer to one of the greatest hitters of all time hardly seems like evidence of much beyond the fact that good players can have bad games and the playoffs are unpredictable. Along with Nathan, the list of closers who've blown saves this postseason includes Jonathan Papelbon, Huston Street, Jonathan Broxton, Brian Fuentes, and Ryan Franklin. It happens. People who misguidedly think that every closer should convert every save opportunity in every playoff game are now calling for the Twins to trade Nathan, who since joining the team in 2004 has posted a 1.87 ERA in 419 innings while converting 91 percent of his save chances. That includes a career-high 47 saves with a 2.10 ERA, 89-to-22 strikeout-to-walk ratio, and .171 opponents' batting average in 68.2 innings this season, so decreased velocity and elbow issues or not he remained a stud in 2009. On the other hand, while calling for Nathan to be traded because of one ugly postseason appearance is silly the notion of trading a 34-year-old closer, period, is perfectly reasonable. He's paid a premium for a limited amount of work because teams' over-reliance on the save statistic assigns added value to the ninth inning, but closers are created rather than born and Nathan himself was merely a very good setup man before arriving in Minnesota. A huge part of Nathan's value, both perceived and real, comes from the fact that the Twins use him for the ninth inning, but they're free to trade him and begin building up another pitcher's value by utilizing them in the exact same role. Successful closers aren't something that fall from the sky, fully formed with mid-90s fastballs and ice water running through their veins. Instead most great setup men who're given a chance to pitch the ninth inning become successful closers, and then the process repeats. Of course, the question is whether the Twins have that great setup man waiting in the wings, because regardless of what you think of saves as a measure of value and closers as a defined role the fact is that Nathan has been one of the elite relievers in baseball in each the past six seasons. Actually, that's probably understating his case, because Nathan has been one of the elite relievers ever. Here are the top adjusted ERA+ figures from relievers with at least 650 career innings: IP ERA+If you focus on his run prevention Nathan has been one of the greatest relievers in baseball history. If you focus on his save percentage Nathan has been one of the greatest closers in baseball history. And in either case his performance this season fits in perfectly with the rest of his dominant Twins career. Regardless of the setup men waiting in the wings the chances of finding one to truly replace Nathan's performance are next to impossible. However, with his 35th birthday next month, a pair of bone chips recently removed from his elbow, and some signs of diminished raw stuff Nathan's odds of continuing that spectacular run aren't particularly great either. In other words, the Twins wouldn't be replacing the Nathan who has been one of the best relievers of all time through the age of 34, they'd be replacing the Nathan who's turning 35 and is owed $11.25 million in each of the next two years with a $12.5 million option or $2 million buyout for 2012. If you're going to call for the Twins to trade Nathan, don't do it because he served up a home run to Alex Rodrigez. Do it because he carries a huge amount of value, perhaps even more perceived value, and is about to turn 35 while being owed a ton of money over the next 2-3 seasons. In other words don't call for the Twins to trade Nathan unless you were calling for it before Rodriguez even stepped to the plate. For better or worse, it makes exactly as much sense now as it did then. Once you're done here, check out my NBCSports.com blog and Twitter updates.
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