Comments on: Twins dump Nick Blackburn and MLB-worst 6.53 ERA from rotation

By: mike wants wins

mike wants wins — Sat, 24 Jul 2010 21:17:44 +0000

Why is Casilla even on the 40 man still? Brutal. 2.5 weeks in Peru, and I come back and all they’ve done is regress and not make a trade. I still think Smith is waaaaay over his head here. I still think their refusal to look at stats and their implications is a killer. And, Mauer has to be great for them to win, and he’s not this year. What a waste. And, don’t get me started on Cuddeyer….

By: Kent Rath

Kent Rath — Sat, 24 Jul 2010 17:13:00 +0000

I think they should send Blackburn, Slowey and Baker all down and bring up some new blood. They have done nothing but hurt the Twins and they need a wake up call. There are plenty of good pitchers in their farm system that would love to get a chance to prove themselves and maybe help the team.

Kent Rath

By: Neil

Neil — Thu, 22 Jul 2010 22:21:37 +0000

In the Twins’ defense, worse deals have been made:

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/blog/big_league_stew/post/Wolf-s-woeful-outing-puts-Brewers-in-historicall;_ylt=AuoJg0ueBdaGiLaj3ZUxKm05nYcB?urn=mlb-257487

By: Sam

Sam — Thu, 22 Jul 2010 18:24:42 +0000

*Pretty good

By: Sam

Sam — Thu, 22 Jul 2010 17:00:25 +0000

James – that’s pretty to know.

By: James M.

James M. — Thu, 22 Jul 2010 16:27:51 +0000

Sam: I don’t have time to do a big study. But I can tell you, out of 40 pitchers with an ERA at least 0.25 below their FIP in 2008, only 10 made the list again in 2009, including Blackburn.

By: Scott

Scott — Thu, 22 Jul 2010 15:56:20 +0000

I still cant fathom why they would replace manship with alexi.

oh wait, yes i can. alexi is a utility infeilder, which gardy loves to collect and will henceforth play into his plan of leaving no room (in his mind anyways) for Valencia, especially once tolbert is activated from the DL. way to go gardy, way to go.

By: matt

matt — Thu, 22 Jul 2010 15:36:47 +0000

This is really a indicative of a problem that permeates the organization. Drafting these soft-tossing, strike throwers who pitch to contact will one day give you a rotation that resembles the current Twins rotation. None of the mediocre 3 have “shave the corner” control or very good secondary pitches ala Maddux, Glavine or other dominant control-type pitchers. So this is what you get, 60% of your rotation with ERA’s surrounding 5. Really check out the minor league rosters, there aren’t many, if any, dominant power pitchers in the Twins organization. Brad Radke has become the measuring stick for the pitching in this organization. Learn to love it…

By: Sam

Sam — Thu, 22 Jul 2010 15:33:36 +0000

Blackburn actually bucked the trend for 4 years, including his minor league success that got him ranked as our top prospect.

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4270&position=P
His K rate and BB rate have been consistent since 2006 (ups and downs, but no obvious trend). His ’06 numbers are skewed I believe, by a big split between 1st half and second half. I think that, since mid year ’06, his ERA has consistently been below his FIP (xFIP only available for MLB). However, his FIP rose when he went to the MLB because his HR/9 rose.

I would love to see someone due the regression to get the credibility factor, but what percentage of people who’s ERA

Anyway, his FIP and xFIP are basically driven by his HR rate. That is what got so much worse this year. HR/FB of 14% is about 50% higher than his prior MLB average. I think it's fair to expect regression going forward, back to FIP/xFIP more similar to his prior numbers. Whether you expect his ERA to match his prior ERA or his prior FIP/xFIP (which at 4.5 wouldn't be bad), depends on the credibility stat I put above.

Anyway, demoting him makes sense. Someone needs to figure out what's wrong, and fix it, so the HRs stop, and the K rate goes back above 4, and BB below 2. It may not be this year, but I think it's fair to put up an a priori expectation for next year in the range of 150-200 IP with ERA around 4.5.

I.e. don't dump him completely.

By: Son of Shane Mack

Son of Shane Mack — Thu, 22 Jul 2010 15:13:17 +0000

The Allan Anderson story retold with slight variation. Nicely done, Aaron.

Wow. That’s a name that brings me back. I always wondered what the heck happened with him. Of course, I was a kid back then, sabermetrics wasn’t well known, the internet was in text and for research types, and besides – I didn’t like math.