Comments on: Twins get Matt Capps from Nationals for Wilson Ramos and Joe Testa Baseball news, insight and analysis from Aaron Gleeman Tue, 28 Apr 2015 05:09:00 +0000 hourly 1 By: brian Sat, 24 Sep 2011 02:45:14 +0000 Yes. No one commented for a year! This is the tombstone post of Bill Smith.

By: Jake Mon, 02 Aug 2010 12:58:21 +0000 Gardy doesn’t know how to manage. The management doesn’t know how to evaluate talent or trade for value. In fact, it is a sabremetric fact that this team has only had 8 generally good seasons in a row despite being a low payroll team because of luck and luck alone.

By: Jake Mon, 02 Aug 2010 12:48:26 +0000 Scott,

Kind of late to reply now, but Ramos was rated #58 by baseball America before his poor AAA run that led right into our trading him.

Also, and this is the key to this, other teams don’t scout based on what baseball America says about a player. The Twins have already discovered in other trade talks that Ramos wasn’t seen as no #58 player. If he was perceived as such outside of Minnesota and your ranking of choice, then it wouldn’t have been so hard to trade him.

Baseball America may be the reason we were so high on him.

By: Minnesota Masher Mon, 02 Aug 2010 03:13:11 +0000 Big deal if BA had Ramos ranked at #58 overall. That’s not a valid argument for his determining his value.

BA is the same entity that had Blackburn as the #1 prospect in the organization (#56 overall) back in 2008 and look where he’s at now, just saying.

By: Twinstalker Mon, 02 Aug 2010 00:10:10 +0000 Matt Capps is likely a bigger contributor to the Twins over the next couple of years…at pretty big $$$. Ultimately, Capps may be a better player than Ramos. But that is hardly a way to evaluate a deal. Prospects like Ramos are keys to acquiring top performers, of which Capps isn’t one.

In the middle of next season, when Ramos is killing AAA at Rochester, his value is immense and gets you next year’s Cliff Lee. You do not deal a prospect like Ramos for a non-special arm or bat simply because he will at some point command that price. It’s simple game theory, and Bill Smith has no clue about it, apparently.

Basically, a chip that would eventually yield something big was thrown away, because the likes of Matt Capps can be gotten for a lot less. Rene Tosoni might not have gotten Matt Capps from Washington, but he could have brought his clone from some other team, and that’s why this is a putrid deal.

By: msmatt Sun, 01 Aug 2010 13:10:44 +0000 pretty sure they wanted 2 high-level prospects from us. it would have been Ramos AND someone like Hicks or Gibson. I would Balk at that too…

By: sugarknob Sun, 01 Aug 2010 01:13:56 +0000 analysis says Twins panicked. “Balked” at giving up Ramos for Lee, but give him up for Capps. Truly boneheaded.

By: brian Sat, 31 Jul 2010 21:52:31 +0000 This was a great thread to read. Lotsa fun. A couple things:

It was a responder to my post that said “give up,” not me.

I just think that the Twins are primarily a regular season entertainment, not a World Series winning one. I am comfortable with that, the stats on that being all it is bear it out. I just don’t know why other people are not comfortable with that. I just think it’s weird when people go from that to, say, “World Series champion” or “win it this year.” When you hear stuff like that, you know emotion is entering the equation, and this blog has moved from being about fun stat-heads and fantasy front office to talk radio.

Sure, there are playoff series upsets, they happen every year. And they are fun. But there is almost never a team in history that is a statistical underdog (particularly starting pitching) to overcome those odds through three rounds of playoffs. So using LAD over the cards in one round, or wild-card teams that won it all when their playoff starters and relievers had better stats than their opponents isn’t addressing this. It is OK to enjoy baseball anyway.

I like mike’s and gendo’s comments.

As for the save stat, AG is correct in implying that the Twins, especially in their use of the media, is counting on this to sell this trade. But don’t blame AG, he has been pretty fair about compiling the stats to let them speak for themselves. The Twins gave up a lot in order to get someone now, for reasons unknown. Because on the face of it, it isn’t a good deal. That’s where AG stopped, rightfully. By doing so, he is asking us to do the speculating.

Those stories would be something like the decline of Geurrier under workload, loss of confidence in Rauch, unreported nagging injuries, losing people next year, etc. Because the fact remains the Twins didn’t have to get rid of Ramos right now, and may have been more valuable trade commodity in September, or next year sometime.

If Rodriguez doesn’t want to get to 600 home runs, there’s always Thome.

By: Jesse Sat, 31 Jul 2010 18:17:02 +0000 the Dodgers get Lilly for Blake Dewitt? Freaking Blake Dewitt! Lilly projects as a type A free agent so all the Dodgers need to do if offer Lilly arbitration (which he won’t accept) and they get 2 1st round picks as compensation. The Twins couldn’t beat this deal?

By: jacksonattack Sat, 31 Jul 2010 17:15:37 +0000 “Can you imagine being sellers in this market? Selling Delmon during his fluke half season with the market as bare as it is would bring huge returns. Thome would have been a great sell off piece to an AL East team as well. They may have even been able to get stuff back for getting out from underneath Cuddyer’s terrible contract and start fixing the smoldering remains of their pitching staff.”

This is the exact problem that frustrates me so much about the small market minded Twins fans. Yes, you have to build for the future, but why on God’s green earth would you trade away players that are helping you win games in a year where a championship is possible? That’s ludicrous. Sure, you’re infatuated with the upside of a certain player we could obtain for Young or Thome, but who’s to say they won’t bust like Young did for a little while??? It’s all stupid speculation and an obsession with potential. I’m taking current production over future potential in a year where the World Series is obtainable any and every day of the week. And… Smoldering remains of the pitching staff…. If you’re harping on SABR numbers you should at least know that other than Blackburn and occasionally Slowey the Twins’ rotation has been phenomenal this year, just with bad luck in many instances.

As far as Ramos… I clearly didn’t get my point across above. The problem I see here is that Ramos’ value depreciated simply because he was blocked. Knowing that the Twins were not going to be having much of a need for him in the foreseeable future, teams interested in Ramos drove down his value despite his overall talent and potential demanding a higher level of value. Yes, Ramos was a steep price for Capps, but we have little need for Ramos and acquiring a more valuable player may have never happened with just Ramos involved (as evidenced by the Lee trade talks).