Regarding subjectivity in BABIP, I was going to say “what relevant subjectivity could you possibly be referring to?” Not to call Gleeman wrong, but there is, I suppose a modicum of subjectivity in BABIP: the assignment of errors vs. hits, a subjectivity that enters into basic batting average as well, is a small factor. I can remember quite a few flyballs last year that were simply poorly played by the Twins (corner, mostly) outfielders but still scored as hits. Were these called errors by a different official scorer, Liriano’s opponents would have had a lower BABIP and, assuming some of these contributed to runs, his ERA would have dropped. Note, though, that this doesn’t exactly help your argument, since it just highlights that there are things outside of Liriano’s control that hurt his traditional numbers.

As for the Hardy salary savings, I’m not upset with the trade in the sense that I think he was worth more than the dollars saved, I’m upset with it because I think he could have been a 3 1/2 win player on a contending team. Look at his second half, post-injury-recovery numbers.

No offense, Zach, but when you type things like “2.4 WAR replacement player” it makes it sort of apparent that you need to do a little homework. Really? A 2.4 Wins Above Replacement replacement player? Hm, ok.

Again, this is wrong. You’re missing the entire concept behind xFIP and DIPS, which is that the quality of the pitcher doesn’t have as big an impact on BABIP numbers as people believe.

You say his BABIP “is generally higher than pitchers in his same class” and “a higher BABIP than would be considered normal for a pitcher with his his peripheral stats” and “consistently higher compared to similarly effective pitchers.”

These are not factual statements. Prior to a flukishly high BABIP in 2010, Liriano had a career BABIP of .302. Other pitchers in the .295-.305 range include Roy Oswalt, Curt Schilling, Randy Johnson, Tim Lincecum, Roy Halladay, Felix Hernandez, Mike Mussina, Andy Pettitte, Josh Johnson, and Josh Beckett. Most pitchers, even great ones, have a BABIP somewhere in the .290-.310 range.

You’re saying things that are not factual as part of strongly worded arguments against things you appear not to have a particularly strong understanding of and, like I said earlier, it may serve you best to learn more about some of these stats before commenting on their validity and usefulness.

BABIP, was poorly worded, but it was pointed more towards stats like DIPs and xFIP, and that just because they don’t seem to support a high BABIP, that I don’t believe this BABIP statistical result is overwhelming luck-based for Frankie. So while one could say, Francisco’s DIP numbers are x, therefore his BABIP is shear luck because it’s too high, I’m saying DIPS and xFIPs are subjective to an extent, which means that when these stats are used in conjunction, they may or may not be accurate (more likely to be may) in all cases. Part of that is due to the subjectivity in how these stats are recorded. Not all line drives, fly balls and ground balls are created equally. So, BABIP is not the subjective stat, when used in conjunction with subjective stats, I’m just saying they don’t give you a fully-proofed equation and that they’re is room for debate on why Liriano’s BABIP is consistently higher than his similar pitching comps and counterparts, and my conclusion is that this cannot just be explained with luck, though last year he may have been more unlucky than he usually is, but I can see where that would get confusing given the previous segment of my overall statement.

You do realize that his BABIP last season was 30 points higher than his previous career mark, right? And if you want to bet on his BABIP staying “almost exactly the same this year” I’ll take any sized bet you want on that.

There has also been much discussion on how subjective the ratings are for DIP and BABIP (same with WAR). Different people compile and decide on these stats. It’s like errors to a certain extent, it really depends a lot on who is doing the official scoring.

There is zero subjectivity in BABIP. A ball is either in play or not. And it is either an out or not. The statement “it really depends a lot on who is doing the official scoring” is 100 percent false.

I appreciate the dissenting views and the debates that follow, but I would encourage everyone to get a little more familiar with some of the topics before they form such strong opinions on them and then post those as lengthy comments.

I’m not dismissing BABIP, but I do feel it’s a flawed stat and wouldn’t be surprised if Liriano’s BABIP and DIP #’s stay almost exactly the same this year. Then what do we conclude, that he is the unluckiest pitcher in the league year after year? I love the new statistics used in baseball, but this isn’t strictly a science. There has also been much discussion on how subjective the ratings are for DIP and BABIP (same with WAR). Different people compile and decide on these stats. It’s like errors to a certain extent, it really depends a lot on who is doing the official scoring. I’m just saying, take these statistics with a grain of salt and that while I do think Francisco is probably our best starter, he’s expendable at the right price. Everybody is expendable at the right price. I just haven’t seen many recent World Series teams with a #1 starter as weak as Liriano. Not that he’s a bad pitcher, just not an elite starter, in my opinion. His career BABIP is high for a pitcher of his caliber, but I don’t think this can be attributed year after year to luck. He was probably unlucky last year, but his FB%/HR rate was outrageously low last year compared to his career…I’m thinking ballpark effects actually helped him there, while subpar defensive outfield play probably did hurt him…

Finally, I’m not sure if the front office has refused to try to understand how to evaluate players and I’m not sure how that is inferred since Liriano hasn’t been traded. If you still think the Hardy deal was outrageous, then your indictment should be levied on all owners as the market for J.J. Hardy was incredibly, incredibly weak, which I think was about right. $5.1 million, for that? Mind you, it’s $5.85 million this year that we got another team to take off of our hands. I’m not expecting perfection in trading and like every other team, they’ve made mistakes, but general consensus is that the on-field product has been pretty good despite a smaller payroll (in the past) and their farm system is generally believed to be in the top half to top-third in baseball right now, so how is this explained? Luck? Like in the case of Liriano, I’m guessing the biggest factor isn’t luck, good or bad. I think they may actually have and do embrace trying to understand how to evaluate the value of players’ performances, just sounds like it’s different than maybe yours or mine.

I assume you’re looking at baseball reference’s WAR since I know fangraphs (which uses uzr instead of total zone) had him at 2.4. WAR is a also a counting statistic, so Hardy’s injury time hurts him there. Your statement that no GM would trade a top closer for an elite defensive/above average offensive shortstop like Hardy, if true, only adds to the mountain of data suggesting closers are dramatically overvalued in the marketplace.

Finally, if you want to ignore the evidence on BABIP, no one’s gonna stop one, but that IS what you’re doing. Liriano had an above average BABIP in one batted ball type — flyballs — and he had a terrible outfield defense. Coincidence? Were these mashed, “laser” flyballs that somehow weren’t line drives AND somehow weren’t homeruns? There’s proverbial mountains of evidence demonstrating that pitchers of a basic MLB caliber exercise precious little control over their BABIP, and most of that small control is tied to DIP numbers. Liriano has great DIP numbers and a high BABIP. He was either unlucky or he made a tremendous number of bad mistake pitches while um, not concentrating that allowed the hitters to neatly place their bloops and flyballs into areas the outfielders couldn’t cover, because that’s what hitters do with mistake pitches: hit non-line drives in the air that stay in the park but end up in hard to reach areas.

Again, I have no problem with the Twins trading Liriano if they get sexy-good value for him. I have a BIG problem with the front office not understanding (and seem to refuse to even try to understand) how to evaluate the value of players’ performances.

What if the Twins were able to land a major league established everyday player for him? A right handed, power hitting outfielder that could replace Cuddyer or Delmon after this year (or from my perspective, preferably this year as well)? That would have get everyone’s attention, wouldn’t it?

I don’t know if that player is out there, but more than likely I would trade a starting pitcher for an everyday, impact hitter. Don’t get me wrong; Liriano was great last year. Given his injury history, don’t they have to have concerns about his future?

Just curious what folks think.

My overall statement regarding Liriano’s BABIP is that I don’t feel it was that unlucky eventhough you won’t see many pitchers with as good of peripheral numbers who have that high of a BABIP usually. It’s easy to say that is a luck stat. I don’t believe it is in his case. His mistakes are pronounced and his BABIP should reflect that, luck or not. I think it would be very safe to say that Liriano’s BABIP in correlation with his ERA and other stats will likely look deceiving. Watching him, I just don’t think it is. Way too many bad mistakes, which I’m guessing is due to lapses in concentration. His mistakes should be (and are) pronounced.

If I could nitpick this statement of yours a little too:
” Christensen’s article does not so much as HINT at a team source for his statement that “For one thing, Liriano is still an injury risk,” a truism he seems to adduce only to support his similarly unsourced opinion that “the Twins were wise to pass.””

1. It is Christensen’s opinion that Liriano is a health risk. He’s had injuries since he was in the Giants system and a major surgery while with the Twins. His history and advancing age doesn’t exactly point to a future Gehrig-like run. Cleaner mechanics only do so much, and his aren’t the most consistent. I’m not sure his opinion isn’t valid here without approval by a team source.

2. The “Twins were wise to pass” referred to the initial price tag Liriano’s agents had thrown out there. Again, this is his opinion, and therefore doesn’t need to be cited, and I for one don’t think Christensen needs to start going 3rd person on everybody to clear this up. “Joe Christensen thinks that the Twins were wise to pass on that price tag,” says I (Joe Christensen). <-Why we don't source opinions. Anyway, I enjoy the good banter and you are clearly an avid, well-researched and smart baseball fan. My overall premise was that Hardy is very replacable and gave us little, which the stats indicate and that Liriano wasn't that unlucky, his stats are about where they should be given the way he pitched last season. I'm not a front office apologist, but I can't fault them much for making minimal impact moves.