Thats the bottom line, don’t try to make up explanations in hindsight for what is nothing more than randomness.

Furthermore, as I stated, one of Casilla’s 2 good years was 2008 when he was the starting 2b from May onward, so that sinks your theory right there.

And yes, 15 points of OBP is significant whether you put it as 15 or .015. Furthermore, his career OBP is .303. Thats 42 points of OBP, not 15, you can’t just take the seasons where positive variance was on his side, assume that is his real talent level, and then add another 15 points.

And the fact that the Twins think Casilla is a starting SS would lead one to believe that they overrate his abilities, so I really doubt that they would just give up on him if they decide later this year to end this experiment. They would just return him to a reserve role, where they likely value him at least as much as any other team does.

Let’s organize here:

- We’ve been on this ride before. He has pressed with a starting job before, and he’s doing it now.

- All I’m saying is that front offices with a statistical focus have to be creative. The big market teams with big budgets are using the fangraphs, standard advanced metrics. This forces front offices like the Rays and the A’s to be creative with their smaller budgets and find value where the Red Sox and Yankees might overlook. This enhances the need for specified role players. Casilla only really does well (yields positive WAR) when used properly in a bench role or as a depth play. What I’m trying to communicate is that if I can see this based on his WAR numbers, it’s going to turn up in the more advanced analytical departments of these front offices.

- I was off by about .015 points on his OBP, so I concede that. I thought that was sort of trivial and semantic, but apparently that’s really important in this discussion.

You then said that a “stat-head” front office would notice this and trade for him.

Do you not see how your original argument is the EXACT OPPOSITE of the type of logical reasoning a smart front office would be using?

Yeah, he has been awful this year, but its a small sample, only 25 plate appearances. And you apparently overrated how good he was in the past as a reserve/sometimes starter, based on your quoting of his stat line as “.275ish/.345ish.”

He just isn’t that good, as a back-up or otherwise.

I just said he’s pressing again like he did in 09 and he lost his job after only a couple weeks then. Then I reinforced that a front office would recognize the bench value there if Plouffe came up and the Twins happened to waive Casilla (not sure if he’s out of options, just assuming because he’s been around for a while). In 2008 and 2010, he put 1.2 WAR and 1.1 WAR respectively in a limited role. For a bench player, that’s relatively valuable and front offices who care about metrics like WAR are going to notice.

So you’re backing down from your opinion that Casilla hits well as a backup, but not as a starter, based on 20 plate appearances thus far this season?

By the way, he has never had an OBP above .333, and his career line is .248/.304/.326. Not exactly “.275ish/.345ish.”

I haven’t seen his value off the bench, and I don’t see it in the numbers.

The Twins couldn’t get much for Casilla even if they wanted to deal, and I doubt they will be looking to trade him unless they fall completely out of the race and decide its time to give Plouffe a shot.

No way the Twins trade top prospects for Reyes, they wouldn’t trade for Cliff Lee last year…does anyone believe they will ever trade multiple top prospects for an expensive veteran?

All I was saying was eventually some front is going to figure out that a versatile defender who has the wheels to pinch run that can be had dirt cheap is a great value when used properly off the bench. If the Twins waive him or offer him for a bucket of balls, he will get picked up and by a savvy front office.

Wimmers (L, 0-1) 0.0 0 4 4 6 0 0 —

6 batters….0 outs..4 earned runs…OUCH