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	<title>Comments on: Twins Notes: Elbows, elbows, and more elbows</title>
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	<description>Baseball news, insight and analysis from Aaron Gleeman</description>
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		<title>By: scot</title>
		<link>http://aarongleeman.com/2011/08/10/twins-notes-elbows-elbows-and-more-elbows/comment-page-1/#comment-7287</link>
		<dc:creator>scot</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 14 Aug 2011 06:57:08 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description><![CDATA[I am also afraid Twins will over pay to keep Cuddy.  Same deal the Twins did for Punto a few years ago.  Sign Kubel to long term deal and offer MC arbitration, thats what I would do. Worst case and he accepts and Twins over pay him for one year, NOT 3 or 4 years.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I am also afraid Twins will over pay to keep Cuddy.  Same deal the Twins did for Punto a few years ago.  Sign Kubel to long term deal and offer MC arbitration, thats what I would do. Worst case and he accepts and Twins over pay him for one year, NOT 3 or 4 years.</p>
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		<title>By: ewen21</title>
		<link>http://aarongleeman.com/2011/08/10/twins-notes-elbows-elbows-and-more-elbows/comment-page-1/#comment-7277</link>
		<dc:creator>ewen21</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 12 Aug 2011 02:02:41 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://aarongleeman.com/?p=53946#comment-7277</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Michael Cuddyer will be resigned by this team for A LOT of money.  No question about it.  The way the press, his manager and the announcers gush over him how can Bill Smith let him walk?  The Twins Media Machine loves Michael Cuddyer because he has played the game the right way WITH THEM.  That is a HUGE.  He&#039;s messaged their fragile egos and they reward him for it.  It&#039;s all centered around the image he projected to them.  He&#039;s really packaged himself very cleverly in this market.  If he were somewhat reclusive and had a neck tatoo it would be a whole lot different him.  Not that either of those two things are a bad thing, but let&#039;s not kid ourselves--he&#039;d probably have been gone after his terrible &#039;08 campaign had he not been so whitebread and affable.  The fact is, Michael Cuddyer fits in with the image the Twins want to project.  All he has to do is not be completely incompetent and he&#039;ll have a job.  THe fact that he went on a tear this year scares me.  Now the FO will reward him for THIS SEASON rather than pay him based off future expectations.  They will ignore his advancing age and his inconsistent production.  We really should have sold high on him when we could have a couple of weeks ago.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Michael Cuddyer will be resigned by this team for A LOT of money.  No question about it.  The way the press, his manager and the announcers gush over him how can Bill Smith let him walk?  The Twins Media Machine loves Michael Cuddyer because he has played the game the right way WITH THEM.  That is a HUGE.  He&#8217;s messaged their fragile egos and they reward him for it.  It&#8217;s all centered around the image he projected to them.  He&#8217;s really packaged himself very cleverly in this market.  If he were somewhat reclusive and had a neck tatoo it would be a whole lot different him.  Not that either of those two things are a bad thing, but let&#8217;s not kid ourselves&#8211;he&#8217;d probably have been gone after his terrible &#8217;08 campaign had he not been so whitebread and affable.  The fact is, Michael Cuddyer fits in with the image the Twins want to project.  All he has to do is not be completely incompetent and he&#8217;ll have a job.  THe fact that he went on a tear this year scares me.  Now the FO will reward him for THIS SEASON rather than pay him based off future expectations.  They will ignore his advancing age and his inconsistent production.  We really should have sold high on him when we could have a couple of weeks ago.</p>
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		<title>By: Joe</title>
		<link>http://aarongleeman.com/2011/08/10/twins-notes-elbows-elbows-and-more-elbows/comment-page-1/#comment-7276</link>
		<dc:creator>Joe</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 12 Aug 2011 02:00:35 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://aarongleeman.com/?p=53946#comment-7276</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I&#039;m no sabermatrician, but I divided WAR/Games and got the following results for 2010-2011:

WAR/Games: 
1. Justin Morneau 0.0083
2. Joe Mauer 0.0082
3. Orlando Hudson 0.0061 (!)
4. J.J. Hardy 0.0067
5. Jim Thome 0.0071
6. Denard Span 0.0049
7. Danny Valencia 0.0041
8. Jason Repko 0.007
9. Alexi Casilla 0.0047 (!)
10. Nick Punto 0.0045 (!)
11. Michael Cuddyer 0.0032
12. Delmon Young 0.0026
13. Ben Revere 0.0022
14. Jason Kubel 0.0016
15. Luke Hughes 0.001
16. Matt Tolbert 0.0007
17. Rene Rivera 0
18. Drew Butera -0.0006
19. Jose Morales -0.0023
20. Trevor Plouffe -0.0046
21. Tsuyoshi Nishioka -0.0057
22. Brendan Harris -0.0075
23. Rene Tosoni -0.0103

Nishi&#039;s better than Brendan Harris!

Feel free to poke holes in this if I am way off base...]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I&#8217;m no sabermatrician, but I divided WAR/Games and got the following results for 2010-2011:</p>
<p>WAR/Games:<br />
1. Justin Morneau 0.0083<br />
2. Joe Mauer 0.0082<br />
3. Orlando Hudson 0.0061 (!)<br />
4. J.J. Hardy 0.0067<br />
5. Jim Thome 0.0071<br />
6. Denard Span 0.0049<br />
7. Danny Valencia 0.0041<br />
8. Jason Repko 0.007<br />
9. Alexi Casilla 0.0047 (!)<br />
10. Nick Punto 0.0045 (!)<br />
11. Michael Cuddyer 0.0032<br />
12. Delmon Young 0.0026<br />
13. Ben Revere 0.0022<br />
14. Jason Kubel 0.0016<br />
15. Luke Hughes 0.001<br />
16. Matt Tolbert 0.0007<br />
17. Rene Rivera 0<br />
18. Drew Butera -0.0006<br />
19. Jose Morales -0.0023<br />
20. Trevor Plouffe -0.0046<br />
21. Tsuyoshi Nishioka -0.0057<br />
22. Brendan Harris -0.0075<br />
23. Rene Tosoni -0.0103</p>
<p>Nishi&#8217;s better than Brendan Harris!</p>
<p>Feel free to poke holes in this if I am way off base&#8230;</p>
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		<title>By: Zack</title>
		<link>http://aarongleeman.com/2011/08/10/twins-notes-elbows-elbows-and-more-elbows/comment-page-1/#comment-7275</link>
		<dc:creator>Zack</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 11 Aug 2011 23:05:33 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://aarongleeman.com/?p=53946#comment-7275</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[&quot;All good points, frightwig. Very good points. As for breaking even in salary over his career, nah, doesn’t make me feel better. Because it’s not like they used those savings in the early years to sign players, and they certainly (already this year, with Hardy) will have to cut back on some medium priced players over this contract.&quot;

I don&#039;t know if it&#039;s because of Mauer&#039;s contract per se. Cuddyer was being paid $10 million this year, Joe Nathan was making $12 million, Delmon Young is making $5.5 million, Matt Capps is making $7 million, Carl Pavano is making $8 million. I would&#039;ve rather had Hardy than Capps or Pavano or Young. The Twins should have a budget for 24 players of around $90-100 million. If the front office cannot prioritize that money properly (e.g., overpaying for Saves, paying $8 million for a 5th starter who won&#039;t be replacing the 5th starter, etc.) that&#039;s on them, not on Mauer. 

I think people are far too hard on Mauer, and for stupid reasons. I think that his contract is certainly a risk, but I hardly think his career is over because of a bad season, seemingly due to injury which was caused by rushing back to play instead of resting his injury.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&#8220;All good points, frightwig. Very good points. As for breaking even in salary over his career, nah, doesn’t make me feel better. Because it’s not like they used those savings in the early years to sign players, and they certainly (already this year, with Hardy) will have to cut back on some medium priced players over this contract.&#8221;</p>
<p>I don&#8217;t know if it&#8217;s because of Mauer&#8217;s contract per se. Cuddyer was being paid $10 million this year, Joe Nathan was making $12 million, Delmon Young is making $5.5 million, Matt Capps is making $7 million, Carl Pavano is making $8 million. I would&#8217;ve rather had Hardy than Capps or Pavano or Young. The Twins should have a budget for 24 players of around $90-100 million. If the front office cannot prioritize that money properly (e.g., overpaying for Saves, paying $8 million for a 5th starter who won&#8217;t be replacing the 5th starter, etc.) that&#8217;s on them, not on Mauer. </p>
<p>I think people are far too hard on Mauer, and for stupid reasons. I think that his contract is certainly a risk, but I hardly think his career is over because of a bad season, seemingly due to injury which was caused by rushing back to play instead of resting his injury.</p>
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		<title>By: frightwig</title>
		<link>http://aarongleeman.com/2011/08/10/twins-notes-elbows-elbows-and-more-elbows/comment-page-1/#comment-7274</link>
		<dc:creator>frightwig</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 11 Aug 2011 21:42:34 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://aarongleeman.com/?p=53946#comment-7274</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Where are you getting your information, loudjon?

Jason Kubel is currently worth 1.7 fWAR in 293 PA.
Jason Repko, 0.2 fWAR in 111 PA.
Alexi Casilla, 1.3 fWAR in 362 PA.
Nick Punto, 1.4 fWAR in 131 PA (while posting career-best obp/slg, by far)

If we project Kubel&#039;s fWAR to 469 PA (same as Cuddyer), he&#039;d be worth 2.7 fWAR (compared to Cuddyer&#039;s 2.9). If the Twins had to keep just one guy, Cuddyer or Kubel, I&#039;d rather see Smith sign Kubel for the next few years, and offer arbitration to Cuddyer and take the picks if he signs elsewhere.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Where are you getting your information, loudjon?</p>
<p>Jason Kubel is currently worth 1.7 fWAR in 293 PA.<br />
Jason Repko, 0.2 fWAR in 111 PA.<br />
Alexi Casilla, 1.3 fWAR in 362 PA.<br />
Nick Punto, 1.4 fWAR in 131 PA (while posting career-best obp/slg, by far)</p>
<p>If we project Kubel&#8217;s fWAR to 469 PA (same as Cuddyer), he&#8217;d be worth 2.7 fWAR (compared to Cuddyer&#8217;s 2.9). If the Twins had to keep just one guy, Cuddyer or Kubel, I&#8217;d rather see Smith sign Kubel for the next few years, and offer arbitration to Cuddyer and take the picks if he signs elsewhere.</p>
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		<title>By: Cap'n TK</title>
		<link>http://aarongleeman.com/2011/08/10/twins-notes-elbows-elbows-and-more-elbows/comment-page-1/#comment-7273</link>
		<dc:creator>Cap'n TK</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 11 Aug 2011 20:31:58 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://aarongleeman.com/?p=53946#comment-7273</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Fire Billy Smith!!!

Santana for garbage.

Garza and Bartlett for Young, rumored to be on waivers.

Hardy for garbage.

Are there no standards in that organization?  The guy is a train wreck as a GM.  Aaron, beat teh drum to bounce this guy out the door!]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Fire Billy Smith!!!</p>
<p>Santana for garbage.</p>
<p>Garza and Bartlett for Young, rumored to be on waivers.</p>
<p>Hardy for garbage.</p>
<p>Are there no standards in that organization?  The guy is a train wreck as a GM.  Aaron, beat teh drum to bounce this guy out the door!</p>
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		<title>By: loudjon</title>
		<link>http://aarongleeman.com/2011/08/10/twins-notes-elbows-elbows-and-more-elbows/comment-page-1/#comment-7272</link>
		<dc:creator>loudjon</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 11 Aug 2011 15:36:26 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://aarongleeman.com/?p=53946#comment-7272</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I have not bothered to read everybody&#039;s comments, but Cuddyer has played significantly more than Mauer.  I think that has to account for something in his value in the average fans mind, and part of me tends to agree.  However, Cuddyer has had his lost seasons to injury as well.

On the flip side of the argument I found it amusing that Kubel&#039;s WAR is BELOW Jason Repko and just ahead of Lil&#039; Nicky Punto, and Alexi Casilla practically laps him (1.3 to 2.5).  Those WAR numbers would indicate we would probably rather offer arbitration, let him walk and take the draft picks.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I have not bothered to read everybody&#8217;s comments, but Cuddyer has played significantly more than Mauer.  I think that has to account for something in his value in the average fans mind, and part of me tends to agree.  However, Cuddyer has had his lost seasons to injury as well.</p>
<p>On the flip side of the argument I found it amusing that Kubel&#8217;s WAR is BELOW Jason Repko and just ahead of Lil&#8217; Nicky Punto, and Alexi Casilla practically laps him (1.3 to 2.5).  Those WAR numbers would indicate we would probably rather offer arbitration, let him walk and take the draft picks.</p>
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		<title>By: mike wants wins</title>
		<link>http://aarongleeman.com/2011/08/10/twins-notes-elbows-elbows-and-more-elbows/comment-page-1/#comment-7271</link>
		<dc:creator>mike wants wins</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 11 Aug 2011 13:28:41 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://aarongleeman.com/?p=53946#comment-7271</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[All good points, frightwig. Very good points. As for breaking even in salary over his career, nah, doesn&#039;t make me feel better. Because it&#039;s not like they used those savings in the early years to sign players, and they certainly (already this year, with Hardy) will have to cut back on some medium priced players over this contract.

As for how people feel about Mauer&#039;s toughness and heart, some of that started to come out from the clubhouse for a week or two, before the Twins crushed that coverage again. From what little leaked out, it appears this is not just a fan issue.

All that said, he&#039;s one of the best hitters in all of MLB, and I hope he recovers his strength next year.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>All good points, frightwig. Very good points. As for breaking even in salary over his career, nah, doesn&#8217;t make me feel better. Because it&#8217;s not like they used those savings in the early years to sign players, and they certainly (already this year, with Hardy) will have to cut back on some medium priced players over this contract.</p>
<p>As for how people feel about Mauer&#8217;s toughness and heart, some of that started to come out from the clubhouse for a week or two, before the Twins crushed that coverage again. From what little leaked out, it appears this is not just a fan issue.</p>
<p>All that said, he&#8217;s one of the best hitters in all of MLB, and I hope he recovers his strength next year.</p>
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		<title>By: frightwig</title>
		<link>http://aarongleeman.com/2011/08/10/twins-notes-elbows-elbows-and-more-elbows/comment-page-1/#comment-7269</link>
		<dc:creator>frightwig</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 11 Aug 2011 06:18:51 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://aarongleeman.com/?p=53946#comment-7269</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Even well-paid players might get hurt, and it might affect their performance, and they might have to spend time on the DL, even if they are tough guys. To rake a player over the coals for not meeting high expectations while he&#039;s been legitimately hurt is just crummy and low, particularly when the guy has a track record like Joe Mauer. 

Not only has Mauer been the team MVP over the past 6 seasons, he&#039;s easily the best catcher in the majors (by WAR) in that span, and he had the most plate appearances of all catchers in those years. What sort of fan or analyst wants to stick it to a guy like that as soon as he starts to struggle with an injury, and throw him over for the next personable guy who&#039;s having a good year? To look at what some people write, you&#039;d think that Cuddyer has always been the heart and soul of the team and Mauer was never anything but hype, a softie, overvalued &quot;just because he plays catcher.&quot; 

I get that people are concerned about his contract. Even when he signed it, I thought there was significant risk in committing so much money over that many years to a catcher who has already had knee and back problems. So, there is a legitimate concern, sure. But there&#039;s a difference between concern about the future and attacking your star player over something that&#039;s not entirely within his control, before he&#039;s had a real chance to recover from his injury and show what he can do, going forward. 

Right now, NONE OF US KNOW whether or not Joe Mauer is done as an elite player. But, given all that he&#039;s done for the team over the past several years, he deserves some benefit of the doubt. (And, if it helps, think of a portion of his current salary as back pay. Fangraphs estimates his value from 2004-10 at about $138 million, while he was paid $34 millon. If he&#039;s just a $10 million player each year through 2018, the Twins still ought to just about break even with him on his career, then.)]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Even well-paid players might get hurt, and it might affect their performance, and they might have to spend time on the DL, even if they are tough guys. To rake a player over the coals for not meeting high expectations while he&#8217;s been legitimately hurt is just crummy and low, particularly when the guy has a track record like Joe Mauer. </p>
<p>Not only has Mauer been the team MVP over the past 6 seasons, he&#8217;s easily the best catcher in the majors (by WAR) in that span, and he had the most plate appearances of all catchers in those years. What sort of fan or analyst wants to stick it to a guy like that as soon as he starts to struggle with an injury, and throw him over for the next personable guy who&#8217;s having a good year? To look at what some people write, you&#8217;d think that Cuddyer has always been the heart and soul of the team and Mauer was never anything but hype, a softie, overvalued &#8220;just because he plays catcher.&#8221; </p>
<p>I get that people are concerned about his contract. Even when he signed it, I thought there was significant risk in committing so much money over that many years to a catcher who has already had knee and back problems. So, there is a legitimate concern, sure. But there&#8217;s a difference between concern about the future and attacking your star player over something that&#8217;s not entirely within his control, before he&#8217;s had a real chance to recover from his injury and show what he can do, going forward. </p>
<p>Right now, NONE OF US KNOW whether or not Joe Mauer is done as an elite player. But, given all that he&#8217;s done for the team over the past several years, he deserves some benefit of the doubt. (And, if it helps, think of a portion of his current salary as back pay. Fangraphs estimates his value from 2004-10 at about $138 million, while he was paid $34 millon. If he&#8217;s just a $10 million player each year through 2018, the Twins still ought to just about break even with him on his career, then.)</p>
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		<title>By: brian</title>
		<link>http://aarongleeman.com/2011/08/10/twins-notes-elbows-elbows-and-more-elbows/comment-page-1/#comment-7268</link>
		<dc:creator>brian</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 11 Aug 2011 04:22:51 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://aarongleeman.com/?p=53946#comment-7268</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[MWW- C&#039;mon. Focus.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>MWW- C&#8217;mon. Focus.</p>
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