Comments on: Twins trade Denard Span to Nationals for pitching prospect Alex Meyer

By: Large Canine

Large Canine — Mon, 03 Dec 2012 16:43:46 +0000

The Twins will pay 4.2575 mil less in CF playing Revere over Span. (Span 4.75 mil/Revere $492,500) The savings can (and looks like will) be used on pitching. We lose very little replacing Span with Revere and now our BA looks better with Parmalee as the everyday RF. Overall OF defense will probably suffer a bit but we need runs and pitching. Good trade overall.

By: Deduno Abides

Deduno Abides — Fri, 30 Nov 2012 23:53:43 +0000

Below are the BA 2006 Top Prospects #s 40-80 that are pitchers are below. 24 total. More than 40% of the names are recognizable. 5 of them (Sanchez, Weaver, Hamels, Gonzalez, Johnson) have had high upsides. There are also other successful major leaguers, such as Volquez, Danks, Broxton, Niemann, Hammel. This isn’t a guarantee, but the list shows more optimism for an upside than some of the doubters have stated.

40. Anibal Sanchez, rhp, Marlins
41. Anthony Reyes, rhp, Cardinals
44. Mark Rogers, rhp, Brewers
45. Adam Loewen, lhp, Orioles
47. Adam Miller, rhp, Indians
48. Dustin McGowan, rhp, Blue Jays
52. Jason Hirsh, rhp, Astros
53. Jeremy Sowers, lhp, Indians
54. Craig Hansen, rhp, Red Sox
55. Scott Elbert, lhp, Dodgers
56. Edison Volquez, rhp, Rangers
57. Jered Weaver, rhp, Angels
59. John Danks, lhp, Rangers
62. Troy Patton, lhp, Astros
63. Jonathan Broxton, rhp, Dodgers
67. Dustin Nippert, rhp, Diamondbacks
68. Cole Hamels, lhp, Phillies
69. Yusmeiro Petit, rhp, Marlins
70. Jeff Niemann, rhp, Devil Rays
72. Thomas Diamond, rhp, Rangers
73. Gio Gonzalez, lhp, Phillies
79. Jason Hammel, rhp, Devil Rays
80. Josh Johnson, rhp, Marlins

Side note – could probably make a pretty good team with the #s 40-80 prospects that were non-pitchers (Matt Moses excepted, of course). Does Kubel even make the starting line-up?

42. Russell Martin, c, Dodgers
43. Neil Walker, c, Pirates
46. Erick Aybar, ss, Angels
49. Ryan Braun, 3b, Brewers
50. Andrew McCutchen, of, Pirates
51. Brian Anderson, of, White Sox
58. Jason Kubel, of, Twins
60. Jeff Mathis, c, Angels
61. Elvis Andrus, ss, Braves
64. Adam Jones, of/ss, Mariners
65. Marcus Sanders, ss/2b, Giants
66. Kenji Johjima, c, Mariners
71. Brad Snyder, of, Indians
74. Javier Herrera, of, Athletics
75. Matt Moses, 3b, Twins
76. Jay Bruce, of, Reds
77. Dustin Pedroia, 2b/ss, Red Sox
78. Kendry Morales, 1b, Angels

By: thegeneral13

thegeneral13 — Fri, 30 Nov 2012 21:15:12 +0000

I think it’s a combination of Upton’s greater upside and Span’s greater catastrophic injury risk. But yeah, it’s a nice pick up for the Nats relative to the free agent options that are available. As for Meyer, though he is “just” a top 50-75 prospect, those lists are pretty fluid, and if the Twins can harness his control and refine his changeup he could very well be a top 20 prospect this time next year. Those things aren’t givens, but the point is he has the raw ability to move a lot higher. He also sucked until his senior year in college and I think that weighs him down in the rankings, such that he could move quickly up lists simply by continuing to perform this year.

By: Brian

Brian — Fri, 30 Nov 2012 20:41:02 +0000

The Twins have a better chance of winning the World Series in the next 10 years doing this trade than keeping Span. I’d agree with that. I just think they should have been able to do better. It’s odd to me that BJ Upton gets $75M over 5 years, but Span, who is signed for $11M over 2 years with an option to make it $20M over 3 years only fetches a single prospect outside the top 20 prospects. I know Upton hits 20-30 HRs, but he also hits .240 with a lower OBP than Span, and Span is probably the better defender.

By: thegeneral13

thegeneral13 — Fri, 30 Nov 2012 19:46:26 +0000

I generally agree with that, Brian. A healthy Span is likely to create more excess value during his current contract than the average of 100 Meyers would while under Twins control. But that’s if Span’s healthy, and if he didn’t have a serious brain injury history the Twins would have gotten more. If you pretend that risk doesn’t exist, I agree the Nats won this trade in a bubble. However, the combination of that major health risk and the fact that the Twins won’t be in position to take advantage of Span outplaying his contract until it’s expired anyway makes this a good trade for the Twins.

By: Brian

Brian — Fri, 30 Nov 2012 18:23:39 +0000

0.357 is a career OBP

By: Brian

Brian — Fri, 30 Nov 2012 18:23:03 +0000

I get the math, but Span isn’t a $1 lotto ticket. If Hamels is the $100, the chances are probably more like 3-5%, and Span (and his 50 cents on the dollar contract) is more like $10 cash.

Not that Span is guaranteed to get his projected 10 wins above replacement over the next 3 years, but I’d take a projected 10 WAR at $20M over the lotto ticket that is a non-elite pitching prospect.

Hamels was paid $22M in his cost controlled years, and contributed about 23 WAR. Clearly a good deal. that’s 15-20 more WAR than they would have otherwise probably have gotten with that $22M. But again… this is a 1-in-20 scenario. For every Cole Hamels, there’s 10 Adam Johnsons.

And I know it’s not Hamels or bust. There’s guys like Gavin Floyd, too.

I get the Twins situation (having Revere, and not really having a team that can contend next year), but I still think the trade favors the Nats in a bubble.

By: thedaimajin

thedaimajin — Fri, 30 Nov 2012 18:10:43 +0000

What 2012 stats are you using Aaron? All the websites list Span’s 2012 OBP as .342 not .357. Twins definitely dealt from an area of strength, would have liked to get a closer mlb ready player though.

By: thegeneral13

thegeneral13 — Fri, 30 Nov 2012 18:01:47 +0000

That’s just the nature of prospects. Most of the players contribute nothing, but those who do contribute enough value that the cohort itself is very valuable. You say only 5-10% are the Wainwrights and Hamels’s, but 6 years of a cost-controlled Hamels has many, many times the economic value of Span (even with Span under a team friendly contract). Put it this way – would you buy a $1 lotto ticket if you had a 10% chance of winning $100 and a 90% chance of winning nothing? You should, even though there’s a 90% chance you’d walk away with nothing and regret “wasting” your dollar.

By: Brian

Brian — Fri, 30 Nov 2012 17:21:48 +0000

Go to this website:

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/top-100-prospects/all-time.html

pick a year at random (prior to 2005 so there’s a track record), and go through the 40-80 range that Alex Meyer is allegedly in. You won’t recognize 60% of the pitcher names. Now there’s some Wainwrights and Hamels out there too, but those guys make up about 5-10%.