Comments on: Twins sign Kevin Correia to two-year, $10 million contract http://aarongleeman.com/2012/12/11/twins-sign-kevin-correia-to-two-year-10-million-contract/ Baseball news, insight and analysis from Aaron Gleeman Wed, 29 Jul 2015 21:00:00 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=4.2.3 By: frightwig http://aarongleeman.com/2012/12/11/twins-sign-kevin-correia-to-two-year-10-million-contract/comment-page-1/#comment-29410 Fri, 14 Dec 2012 00:54:32 +0000 http://aarongleeman.com/?p=88460#comment-29410 “…he doesn’t miss bats, doesn’t induce a ton of ground balls, and doesn’t have great control.”

Note that his 51.2% groundball rate this year ranked 17th in the majors, while his BB/9 rates the last two seasons dropped to 2.28 and 2.48. I suppose that’s how his xFIP in Pittsburgh (4.38 in ’11, 4.34 in ’12) remained slightly lower than his career 4.44 xFIP, despite the decline in his K/9.

I’m not thrilled with the signing, either, but I think there’s a good chance that he’ll give the Twins a 4.50 ERA, maybe a bit lower (particularly if Target Field, AL Central competition, and the Twins infield defense really help him out), in 170-175 IP this year. That wouldn’t be so terrible, for $5M. And if you had the choice between signing Correia for $10M/2yrs or Jeremy Guthrie for $25M/3yrs, and you couldn’t say “neither,” which would you prefer? I’d take the Correia deal.

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By: TiredTwin http://aarongleeman.com/2012/12/11/twins-sign-kevin-correia-to-two-year-10-million-contract/comment-page-1/#comment-29314 Thu, 13 Dec 2012 19:58:52 +0000 http://aarongleeman.com/?p=88460#comment-29314 This is getting old! At least after we go get Punto nothing will get through the infield!

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By: thegeneral13 http://aarongleeman.com/2012/12/11/twins-sign-kevin-correia-to-two-year-10-million-contract/comment-page-1/#comment-28990 Thu, 13 Dec 2012 03:33:45 +0000 http://aarongleeman.com/?p=88460#comment-28990 Shane, I don’t know how a reasonable person could be pro-Correia, but I’d love to know which guys in the organization you think can be legitimately called major league starting pitchers. I don’t think the Twins have 5 of them even after signing Correia.

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By: Brandon http://aarongleeman.com/2012/12/11/twins-sign-kevin-correia-to-two-year-10-million-contract/comment-page-1/#comment-28824 Wed, 12 Dec 2012 18:46:57 +0000 http://aarongleeman.com/?p=88460#comment-28824 Aaron, how is it the twins owned the AL central for nearly a decade and now fans are stuck to pay 3x a ticket to watch James shields pitch…for the other team, and Trevor Bauer pitch…for the other team, and josh Johnson pitch…for the other team. TR can interview all he wants about cant give away his money but I refuse to believe the twins couldn’t get the number pitcher they desperately need and trot out a winning ball club. How many teams in history have lost 300 games in 3 yrs…there’s a better chance of that occurring than signing Edwin Jackson and he wouldn’t save the season! Absolutely ridiculous! I loved watching the twins play meaningful ball in September but my god have I found a new respect for an owner committee to producing a winning ball club and winning a World Series…go tigers?

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By: Shane http://aarongleeman.com/2012/12/11/twins-sign-kevin-correia-to-two-year-10-million-contract/comment-page-1/#comment-28781 Wed, 12 Dec 2012 16:38:56 +0000 http://aarongleeman.com/?p=88460#comment-28781 Again, and I would like to see the “pro” side of this ridiculous signing actually respond to this, Correia is no better than the 5th starters that the Twins ALREADY HAVE, but they cost 1/10 of the amount that he does. So, yes, this is an atrocious acquisition.

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By: Deduno Abides http://aarongleeman.com/2012/12/11/twins-sign-kevin-correia-to-two-year-10-million-contract/comment-page-1/#comment-28518 Wed, 12 Dec 2012 02:56:25 +0000 http://aarongleeman.com/?p=88460#comment-28518 The Terry Ryan collection of expensive once-or-never-was pitchers, aka the “innings eaters”:

Livan Hernandez
Sidney Ponson
Ramon Ortiz
Jason Marquis
Jim Deshaies
Bob Tewksbury
Mike Morgan
Sean Bergman
Kenny Rogers
Terry Mulholland
Carl Pavano

Most of these guys didn’t last through one year with the club. Only Pavano, with the possible exception of Rogers, produced statistics better than what would be expected for a fifth starter, and only Pavano, Rogers, Deshaies and Tewksbury (fewer than half) produced the results desired of a fifth starter. To spend another $10M over two years and to expect a better result than the average results of this historical cohort is the triumph of hope over experience, particularly if you recognize that the best pitchers of this group – Pavano, Deshaies and Rogers – all had historical peaks significantly higher than Kevin Correia’s. Frankly, Ortiz, Hernandez, Ponson, Tewksbury, Marquis and possibly Morgan all had historical peaks that were better than Correia’s, so to expect Correia to perform better than they did is wishful thinking at best. Who knows – Correia could have the best year of his career, but based on his history and the team’s history with retreads on the downward slopes of their careers, it’s an expensive, long-shot bet that ties up financial resources just a couple of days after Ryan talked about being constrained because of the contracts for the team’s most expensive players.

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By: jfs http://aarongleeman.com/2012/12/11/twins-sign-kevin-correia-to-two-year-10-million-contract/comment-page-1/#comment-28503 Wed, 12 Dec 2012 02:07:20 +0000 http://aarongleeman.com/?p=88460#comment-28503 i’m a contrarian. most of the comments above are thumbs-down on this guy. time to buy correia stock. it’s all a crap shoot anyway. who’s to say that he won’t have a better season than greinke, at one-fifth the cost? if he contributes 175 innings with an era between 4.00 and 4.50, it’s a good value move in today’s inflated market.

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By: thegeneral13 http://aarongleeman.com/2012/12/11/twins-sign-kevin-correia-to-two-year-10-million-contract/comment-page-1/#comment-28431 Tue, 11 Dec 2012 22:28:33 +0000 http://aarongleeman.com/?p=88460#comment-28431 They are punting on the next 2 years. That should be obvious by now. And they should be, because there is not enough talent between the major leagues and high minors to contend until 2015 regardless of what free agents are signed. And unless you think ownership will stash away the $9 mm savings of Deduno over Correia and spend it in 2015+ when it will benefit a contending club, or you care about reaching 71 wins instead of 70, or you believe it signals poor player valuation by the front office, or you have an equity stake in the Twins, then the $10 mm doesn’t matter. With a bad team and this many holes to fill in the rotation, the Twins just need 1-2 rag arms to soak up innings and not torch the bullpen every 5th day, because then they will run into major roster management problems. Whether Correia can even accomplish that is definitely in question, but I think he’s a better bet than non-entities like Deduno.

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By: Tony P http://aarongleeman.com/2012/12/11/twins-sign-kevin-correia-to-two-year-10-million-contract/comment-page-1/#comment-28405 Tue, 11 Dec 2012 21:14:40 +0000 http://aarongleeman.com/?p=88460#comment-28405 This may be a very bad signing, but at least we didn’t trade our top prospects for James Shields.

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By: Brandon http://aarongleeman.com/2012/12/11/twins-sign-kevin-correia-to-two-year-10-million-contract/comment-page-1/#comment-28391 Tue, 11 Dec 2012 20:31:26 +0000 http://aarongleeman.com/?p=88460#comment-28391 1 more thought.

If the Twins sign one morepitcher this winter couldn’t we just sign sanchez to a 5 year 80 million rather then spend money on crap and have Devries or Dedunno start for league minimum

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