Comments on: Kevin Correia, free agent pitchers, and “better than the numbers”

By: brent

brent — Fri, 01 Feb 2013 21:35:37 +0000

Aaron is spot on, again. It will be interesting to see the evolution of what he does and doesn’t say as he is gets more mainstream play.

By: SDB

SDB — Thu, 31 Jan 2013 17:07:50 +0000

I’m no stats expert, but I whipped up a quick regression analysis based on team stats for 08-12 seasons from Fangraphs.com correlating K/BB, K/9, WHIP and HR/9 to team wins. I realize that there are a lot of quibbles in such an experiment, but the result was that if a team pitched like Correia in 12 they’d win around 77 games. Based on his 09-12 numbers, it would be 75 games. So, if the Twins are hoping Correia returns to form, that’s not a high bar.

If an entire team pitched like Marcum in 10-12, it could be predicted to win 107 games; based on career numbers that would be 100 games. Just picking a name off of the list at random, Jeff Karstens’ career numbers over a whole team would be worth 80 wins, at 1/2 the price of Correia.

I realize there are huge grains of salt to be had in all of this; injuries, offense, team vs. individual stats, etc, but the sad fact is that in an hour it feels like I did more analysis than the Twins did. And they’re getting paid for it and I’m not. Oy.

By: RTG

RTG — Thu, 31 Jan 2013 16:30:27 +0000

I agree with Aaron’s analysis of the Correia signing and the apparent mindset of the Twins’ front office. Still, I’m hopelessly disposed to look at the bright side. So here are two things to consider as signs that Correia might exceed expectations.

First, Correia’s stats in 2011 and 2012 may have been affected by a lingering trunk/abdominal injury. The injury landed him on the 60-day DL in 2011 and he reaggravated it in early 2012.

Second, Correia’s stats for the second half of 2012 may point to a return to form (and, perhaps, a full recovery from the trunk injury). Specifically, I’m looking at his K/9 in the second half of 2012, which rose to 6.1 strikeouts per 9 innings pitched (and accompanied a decent 1.29 WHIP). The 6.1 K/9 is closer to the numbers Correia put up in his strong 2009 season (6.5). (His 2010 season saw an even higher K/9 (7.1), but also, unfortunately, a -1.1 WARP.)

Not a ringing endorsement, I know. And not to say that there may not have been better options available to the Twins. But it’s quite possible — and here I end with more faint praise — that Correia will be a more effective pitcher than he was in 2011 and the first half of 2012.

By: Wookiee of the Year

Wookiee of the Year — Thu, 31 Jan 2013 01:25:24 +0000

@Mark W:

I bet all the Twins’ scouts have ugly girlfriends.

By: AM.

AM. — Thu, 31 Jan 2013 01:03:30 +0000

The question for Terry Ryan is this: do you think Correia is a better pitcher than Marcum?

It seems clear from the way this off-season went that he does. I can’t figure out how in the world the Twins would conclude that, but that is what the evidence suggests.

By: Breaker

Breaker — Wed, 30 Jan 2013 20:05:07 +0000

@ Wyatt & BR:

It is frustrating, but unfortunately it should not be unexpected. As the offseason started the Twins FO (namely TR) was quoted a couple of times as saying the market for free agent starting pitchers was thin. It was correctly pointed out by Gleeman and other bloggers that it may not have had the “ace” or two of the previous free agent classes, but it was certainly deep in 3rd & 4th starters.

I think BR has it right – TR simply misjudged the market for back-end starters. From the very beginning he insisted there wasn’t much depth, and he was wrong all along.

By: Matt #3

Matt #3 — Wed, 30 Jan 2013 19:53:35 +0000

Dave T, don’t worry about that. They’ll blame it on an injury. Thems the breaks.

By: Jason

Jason — Wed, 30 Jan 2013 19:38:16 +0000

It’s Terry’s job to use the information out there to make rational decisions. It is easy for beginners at the FA game to get nervous and buy early. But veterans should be familiar with looking at the marginal difference in quality versus substantial difference in cost and know when to wait.

By: Brandon

Brandon — Wed, 30 Jan 2013 18:58:39 +0000

Or is it too much to hope for that Terry Ryan and his so-called scouts get shown the door. I can’t imagine how a finally healthy Justin Morneau feels like when he finally starts the season back at 1st base and batting clean up…and the team is literally out of the playoff race after April and the twins brass is moving on from Kevin correia to Liam Hendricks…to Brian duensing…to a kid from Edina (only because he’s from Edina). Lets start throwing GM’s against the wall and see if they stick. Clap your hands for the 7th best farm system that may or may not produce a quality product. Give ‘em credit for getting high ceiling pitcher in Meyer but honestly…it’s not like they “fleeced” the nationals. It was an even swap to fill 2 teams needs. I’d saw there’s little confidence from this fan that Terry Ryan will ever feild a team that makes a World Series push.

By: Dave T

Dave T — Wed, 30 Jan 2013 18:27:02 +0000

Is it too much to hope for that Terry Ryan will fire the so-called scouts who recommended Correia, after Correia flops miserably? It’s not just Correia who has years of major league experience under his belt. As you point out, Terry Ryan has made this mistake before.