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2010-02-08T00:05:00.000-06:00

Top 40 Twins Prospects of 2010: 25, 24, 23, 22, 21

Other entries in Top 40 Twins Prospects of 2010 series: 26-30, 31-35, 36-40.

25. Deolis Guerra | Starter | DOB: 4/89 | Throws: Right | Trade: Mets
 
YEAR     LV      G     GS      ERA        IP       H     HR      SO     BB
2007     A+     21     20     4.01      89.2      80      9      66     25
2008     A+     26     25     5.47     130.0     138     12      71     71
2009     A+     16     15     4.69      86.1      95      6      57     25
         AA     12     11     5.17      62.2      62      4      49     17

When the Twins got Deolis Guerra from the Mets two offseasons ago he was considered arguably the highest-upside prospect in the four-player package for Johan Santana. At the time he was 18 years old with a 3.27 ERA, 135-to-65 strikeout-to-walk ratio, and .228 opponents' batting average in 179 innings at Single-A, which along with his 6-foot-5 frame, plus fastball, fantastic changeup, and high ground-ball rate seemingly gave him a huge ceiling. Unfortunately he's been a mess ever since.

Because the Mets pushed Guerra so aggressively prior to the trade the Twins sent him back to high Single-A as a 19-year-old in 2008 when they normally would have had him in rookie-ball with the other teenagers. He struggled there, posting a 5.47 ERA and 71-to-71 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 130 innings, and was back at high Single-A for a third stint to begin last year. The third time wasn't exactly a charm for Guerra, but the Twins promoted him to Double-A at midseason anyway and he struggled there too.

Guerra is still the third-youngest pitcher on this list at 21 years old, but has a 5.16 ERA and 177-to-113 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 279 innings since the trade while seeing his velocity drop into the 80s and his grounders turn into fly balls. No one seems quite sure how to explain the decline in his stuff, but right now he looks like anything but a high-ceiling prospect and realistically should be spending 2010 at low Single-A rather than Double-A, where he'll be by far the youngest guy and take up a 40-man roster spot.

24. Ben Tootle | Reliever | DOB: 1/88 | Throws: Right | Draft: 2009-3
 
YEAR     LV      G     GS      ERA        IP       H     HR      SO     BB
2009     RK      6      0     0.00       6.1       4      0       1      2

Ben Tootle had limited success as a college starter against modest competition at Jacksonville State, but his performance last year can perhaps be blamed on a stomach virus that caused him to lose 20 pounds and the Twins liked his raw stuff enough to make him the No. 101 overall pick last June. Tootle started 43 games compared to just one relief outing in college, but his pro debut came in the bullpen at rookie-level Elizabethton and that figures to be his long-term role.

Much like with fellow 2009 draftee Billy Bullock the Twins are hoping to take Tootle's mid-90s fastball and mold him into a late-inning reliever, although various reports suggest that his slider has the ability to be a plus pitch eventually as well. If that happens he has a chance to be pretty overpowering, but for now Tootle just has a half-dozen pro innings under his belt following a three-year college career that included a 4.83 ERA in the Ohio Valley Conference.

Prior to last season's health problems Baseball America ranked Tootle as the fourth-best prospect in the Cape Cod summer league and he went 10-2 with a 3.87 ERA and 79-to-29 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 86 innings during his sophomore year at Jacksonville State, so certainly his radar-gun readings aren't the sole reason to like Tootle's upside. Rarely have the Twins targeted power arms with questionable command, so it'll be interesting to see if they were right to adjust that strategy for Bullock and Tootle.

23. Luke Hughes | Third Base | DOB: 8/84 | Bats: Right | Sign: Australia
 
YEAR     LV      PA      AVG      OBP      SLG     HR    XBH     BB     SO
2007     AA     362     .283     .356     .438      9     29     34     68
2008     AA     319     .319     .385     .551     15     33     28     70
        AAA     117     .283     .325     .453      3     11      7     30
2009     AA     229     .250     .320     .445      6     24     19     38
        AAA     157     .259     .344     .481      6     16     18     38

Luke Hughes struggled in the low minors after being signed out of Australia as an 18-year-old in 2002, but has hit well enough since advancing to Double-A in 2007 that his bat looks like a possible asset in the majors. Unfortunately his glove is another issue, with Hughes bouncing from second base to third base while also seeing time as a corner outfielder. At the plate he's been close to Danny Valencia, but whereas Valencia projects as a decent third baseman Hughes seems destined to wind up in left field.

Even setting aside his uncertain future defensively he's far from a finished product offensively. Hughes has shown very good power at Double-A and Triple-A, but has drawn a grand total of just 106 walks in 1,184 plate appearances between the two levels while striking out 20 percent of the time. He hit just .250 at New Britain and .257 at Rochester last year, dropping his career mark to .270. Hughes' power is good enough to get him to the majors, but weak secondary skills may limit him to part-time work.

Even if the Twins were willing to live with Hughes' glove at third base Valencia is clearly ahead of him on the position's long-term depth chart, so he'll almost certainly head back to Triple-A and may need an injury to Justin Morneau, Jason Kubel, Michael Cuddyer, Delmon Young, or Jim Thome to get a shot for a call-up as a bat to plug into the lineup at a spot where his defense won't be an issue. Hughes has a chance to be a useful player, but his many flaws make him look like a poor man's Ty Wigginton.

22. Robert Delaney | Reliever | DOB: 9/84 | Throws: Right | Sign: America
 
YEAR     LV      G     GS      ERA        IP       H     HR      SO     BB
2007     A-     36      0     0.77      46.2      25      1      56      6
         A+     17      0     1.54      23.1      19      1      27     10
2008     A+     23      0     1.42      31.2      24      1      34      4
         AA     23      0     1.05      34.1      20      2      38      7
2009     AA     26      0     2.00      36.0      32      1      40      6
         AAA    36      0     4.53      47.2      43      5      38     15

Robert Delaney went into last year with a 1.91 ERA and 185-to-28 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 174 innings as a pro, including a 1.05 ERA in 23 appearances at Double-A to finish 2008, yet the Twins had such little trust in the former undrafted free agent that they sent him back to New Britain to begin last season. Delaney logged another 36 innings there with a 2.00 ERA and 40-to-6 strikeout-to-walk ratio, at which point they finally promoted him to Triple-A just months before his 25th birthday.

For the first time in his career Delaney was something less than spectacular with a 4.53 ERA over 47.2 innings at Rochester, including several really ugly outings, but a .240 opponents' batting average and 38-to-15 strikeout-to-walk ratio suggest that it was more rough patch than proof of being overmatched. Of course, in either case the Twins were already skeptical enough of Delaney's upside that he'll likely need to post a sub-2.00 ERA just to be an option for a call-up in the second half.

Delaney is a fly-ball pitcher without overpowering raw stuff, so keeping the ball in the ballpark figures to be an issue, but his combination of a low-90s fastball and sharp slider has racked up 263 strikeouts in 257.2 career innings. He's not going to be a dominant reliever and is even less likely than fellow slowly promoted prospect Anthony Slama to emerge as a viable late-inning option, but Delaney's track record suggests that he can be a solid middle reliever at worst and he deserves a chance to prove it soon.

21. Alex Burnett | Reliever | DOB: 7/87 | Throws: Right | Draft: 2005-12
 
YEAR     LV      G     GS      ERA        IP       H     HR      SO     BB
2007     A-     27     27     3.02     155.0     140      9     117     38
2008     A+     28     25     3.76     143.2     151     12      84     36
2009     A+     18      0     1.99      22.2      14      0      26      7
         AA     40      0     1.79      55.1      36      2      52     19

A full-time starter for the first four seasons of his pro career, Alex Burnett ranked No. 22 on this list last year despite declining strikeout rates because of consistent success while being young for each level. He was shaping up to be a potential middle-of-the-rotation starter down the road, but instead the Twins moved him to the bullpen last season and watched as he dominated in 58 appearances between high Single-A and Double-A as a 21-year-old.

He whiffed 78 batters in 78 innings after totaling just 84 strikeouts in 143.2 innings as a starter in 2008, holding opponents to a .183 batting average while issuing 2.5 non-intentional walks per nine innings. History is filled with mediocre starters who became dominant relievers, but making the move at age 21 is relatively uncommon, especially since Burnett seemed on the path to the majors anyway with a 3.54 ERA as a starter.

Rather than looking like a fourth or fifth starter Burnett now has the potential to be a late-inning reliever, and moving to the bullpen has also pushed up his timetable considerably. Not only did he have a 1.79 ERA and .187 opponents' batting average at Double-A, of the 110 pitchers logging at least 50 innings in the Eastern League last season only three were younger than Burnett. His control has always been outstanding, so if relief work adds some velocity to his fastball-slider combo Burnett can move quickly.

Once you're done here, check out my NBCSports.com blog and Twitter updates.

2010-02-05T00:02:00.003-06:00

Twins Sign Orlando Hudson To One-Year Deal

I'm sometimes accused of being overly critical of the Twins' front office, but my response is usually that it can't help but look that way when my "job" here is to analyze and give opinions about their moves and the "bad" have simply outnumbered the "good" since Terry Ryan stepped down as general manager in September of 2007. In other words, Bill Smith's first 18 months on the job just didn't feature a whole lot of moves to praise.

He dealt Matt Garza and Jason Bartlett for Delmon Young and Brendan Harris, got a mediocre return for Johan Santana, and gave out millions to Craig Monroe, Livan Hernandez, Nick Punto, Mike Lamb, Adam Everett, Juan Rincon, and Luis Ayala. Was every move a bad one? Of course not, but the entire body of work was pretty damn ugly and I said so as the moves rolled in, without the benefit of hindsight, which understandably comes across as "overly critical" at times. But thankfully, times have changed.

Smith's second season on the job was sort of a mixed bag, but certainly included several moves worth praising, and this offseason the front office has basically been flawless from trading for J.J. Hardy and signing Jim Thome to retaining Carl Pavano and letting Orlando Cabrera leave. And now the icing on the offseason cake is inking Orlando Hudson to a one-year, $5 million deal, which in addition to simply being a very good move is also something that I've long been campaigning for in this space.

Operating under the assumption that Ron Gardenhire will do everything he can to play Punto regularly somewhere, the Twins' early moves left them with essentially one lineup opening at either second or third base. Gardenhire's tendency to use a speedy infielder as his No. 2 hitter also made it likely that one of the two guys playing those positions would slide into the lineup between Denard Span and Joe Mauer. Hudson capably checks both boxes as a good all-around second baseman and nice No. 2 bat.

Last year Twins second basemen ranked dead last in all of baseball with a combined .209/.302/.267 line, so Hudson's career .281/.348/.431 mark represents a massive upgrade and his adjusted OPS+ has actually improved in four straight seasons despite the fact that he turned 32 years old this winter. He doesn't really stand out in any one area offensively, but per 150 games Hudson usually bats around .285 with 10 homers, 50 total extra-base hits, 60 walks, and 5-10 steals. He's just a good, solid player.

Among guys who played at least 100 games at second base Hudson's adjusted OPS+ ranked 9th, 7th, 13th, and 7th during the past four seasons, so even accounting for some potential age-related decline he's likely to be among the position's top 10 hitters in 2010. He's posted an on-base percentage above .350 in each of those four seasons and is a switch-hitter with similar production from either side of the plate, both of which make him a particularly good fit in the No. 2 spot.

Hudson teams with Span to put two strong on-base threats directly in front of the lineup's big boppers and also provides a potential right-handed bat in the midst of lefties Span, Mauer, Justin Morneau, and Jason Kubel. He also gives the Twins a pretty decent chance to have above-average hitting from eight of the nine spots in the lineup, with only third base looking like a clear weak spot (assuming that Hardy bounces back). Of course, while a very good fit for the Twins at $5 million Hudson still has some flaws.

Defensively he has an excellent reputation built by winning four Gold Gloves in the past five years, but a look at some advanced metrics suggests that his range began slipping around age 28. Ultimate Zone Rating pegged Hudson as right about average defensively in both 2006 and 2007 before falling to five runs below average per 150 games between 2008-2009. In other words we'll constantly hear praise for Hudson's glove this season, but given his age and UZR numbers he's likely to be average at best.

Another potential problem area is Hudson's high ground-ball rate. He had the fourth-most grounders in baseball last year at 56 percent and is at 50 percent for his career, which along with good but not great speed and Span constantly being on first base could equal a ton of double plays. He's hit into a DP in 16.5 percent of his DP chances over the past three years. To put that in context Mauer is often criticized for frequent double plays, yet has done so in only 12.4 percent of his DP chances during that time.

So he's fairly old, not as good as his reputation defensively, and likely to hit into a bunch of DPs batting second, but let's be very clear: Hudson is an excellent acquisition in an offseason full of sound moves and represents a massive all-around upgrade over the various options the Twins could have trotted out at second base. Smith, Rob Antony, and the rest of the front office deserved any criticism they received for their 18 months on the job and now they deserve credit for what has been a fantastic offseason.

Once you're done here, check out my NBCSports.com blog and Twitter updates.

2010-02-04T13:03:00.004-06:00

Twins Close to Signing Orlando Hudson?

I'll have a full breakdown of the deal if/when things become official, but in the meantime click here.

Once you're done here, check out my NBCSports.com blog and Twitter updates.

2010-02-03T00:05:00.001-06:00

Top 40 Twins Prospects of 2010: 30, 29, 28, 27, 26

Other entries in Top 40 Twins Prospects of 2010 series: 21-25, 31-35, 36-40.

30. Estarlin De Los Santos | Shortstop | DOB: 1/87 | Bats: Switch | Sign: D.R.
 
YEAR     LV      PA      AVG      OBP      SLG     HR    XBH     BB     SO
2007     RK     322     .264     .341     .363      1     20     26     66
2008     A-     269     .242     .304     .309      2      9     19     55
2009     A+     284     .290     .330     .397      1     19     13     49

Signed by the Twins out of the Dominican Republic as an 18-year-old in 2005, Estarlin De Los Santos was a surprise addition to the 40-man roster before the Rule 5 draft in December. He played last year at high Single-A and managed just a .727 OPS there, making it unlikely that any team would have been willing to keep him in the majors for all of 2010, but clearly the Twins like De Los Santos enough to not take the minimal chance of losing him.

De Los Santos' glove is definitely the big draw, because he had a career-year offensively in 2009 and still hit just .290/.330/.397 with one homer and a 49-to-13 strikeout-to-walk ratio while being limited to 68 games with multiple injuries. For his career he's batted .259/.322/.347 in 227 games, but Twins vice president of player personnel Mike Radcliff recently described him as "the only true shortstop we have in our system" with "a plus arm and plus hands."

His defensive reputation alone was nearly enough for De Los Santos to crack this list in both 2008 and 2009, so now that he's shown some semblance of offensive potential it's an easy call. Great glove or not he'll obviously need to improve at the plate to be an asset in the majors and the Twins sending him to Double-A as a 23-year-old is a sign that they think his switch-hitting gap power and excellent speed will eventually equal more production.

29. Reggie Williams | Second Base | DOB: 10/88 | Bats: Left | Draft: 2007-4
 
YEAR     LV      PA      AVG      OBP      SLG     HR    XBH     BB     SO
2008     RK-     96     .286     .358     .440      0     10      9     10
2009     RK     173     .250     .316     .462      7     17     13     30

Picked out of a California high school in the fourth round of the 2007 draft, Reggie Williams signed too late to debut that year and then played only briefly in the rookie-level Gulf Coast League in 2008. Still on the conservative path last season, Williams played 43 games at rookie-level Elizabethton before going 6-for-10 with two doubles and two walks in three games following an end-of-the-year promotion to low Single-A Beloit.

Williams has logged a grand total of just 281 plate appearances in three years since being drafted, but his performance has been very encouraging for a player who was supposed to be all about raw tools and athleticism at the time. He's batted .276 with 29 extra-base hits and a .468 slugging percentage in 69 games spent in pitcher-friendly environments while showing decent plate discipline and strike-zone control with a 42-to-24 strikeout-to-walk ratio.

Along with that offensive promise Williams has played all three infield spots defensively after originally being drafted as a shortstop, suggesting that his glove could also have considerable value down the road. Williams should see his first full-season action in 2010 as a 21-year-old and a solid campaign at Single-A would make the Twins spending $153,000 to lure him away from Cal-State Fullerton look like a great decision. In a system that's perpetually short on quality infielders, he's very intriguing.

28. Michael McCardell | Starter | DOB: 4/85 | Throws: Right | Draft: 2007-6
 
YEAR     LV      G     GS      ERA        IP       H     HR      SO     BB
2007     RK-     4      2     2.50      18.0      11      2      25      3
         RK      8      8     2.00      45.0      29      3      70      5
2008     A-     22     21     2.86     135.1     110     10     139     25
2009     A+     17     17     3.93      94.0      98     10      78     16
         AA      9      9     4.10      48.1      45      4      40     16

Michael McCardell dominated at rookie-ball and low Single-A after being drafted in the sixth round out of Kutztown University in 2007, but my worry last year at this time was that modest raw stuff made him "no sure thing to clear the high-minors hurdles." Sure enough his performance deteriorated splitting last season between high Single-A and Double-A, with a 3.98 ERA as an older-than-average pitcher in offense-suppressing environments that included just 118 strikeouts versus 143 hits in 142 innings.

McCardell's control remained excellent with 32 walks in 596 plate appearances, but the mostly younger opponents batted .264 against him and he had a difficult time keeping the ball on the ground. Throwing strikes should keep McCardell on the prospect radar, but as a fly-ball pitcher with a high-80s fastball who doesn't miss many bats his long-term upside is limited and he'll turn 25 years old in April despite making a total of just nine starts above Single-A.

Because of his small-school pedigree and pinpoint control McCardell has sometimes been compared to Kevin Slowey, but Slowey's numbers in the minors were mind-boggling good at every level and he's already logged over 300 innings in the majors despite being less than a year older than McCardell. In reality McCardell's upside is likely closer to someone like Josh Towers, which is to say a serviceable but very hittable fifth starter or long reliever. Hopefully he'll get his first crack at Triple-A this year.

27. Trevor Plouffe | Shortstop | DOB: 6/86 | Bats: Right | Draft: 2004-1
 
YEAR     LV      PA      AVG      OBP      SLG     HR    XBH     BB     SO
2007     AA     555     .274     .326     .410      9     48     38     89
2008     AA     249     .269     .325     .410      3     23     16     43
        AAA     272     .256     .292     .420      6     26     14     47
2009    AAA     477     .260     .313     .407     10     38     34     68

Trevor Plouffe had been promoted very aggressively since the Twins took him out of high school in the first round of the 2004 draft, but pushing him through the system despite the lack of any major offensive development now leaves him as a 24-year-old about to spend a third straight season at Rochester. He has six seasons under his belt, including 1,553 plate appearances between Double-A and Triple-A, yet has never posted even a .750 OPS at any level and owns a .256/.318/.385 career line.

His production has been remarkably consistent in its mediocrity, with zero real strides made in any key areas, and Plouffe's lack of progress at the plate is especially damaging because he's no sure thing to be an asset defensively at shortstop. His glove gets mixed reviews and while Plouffe played exclusively shortstop last year the Twins used him at third base extensively in 2008. If he's not at least an average defensive shortstop in the majors it's tough to see Plouffe having much value.

Plouffe is certainly still young enough for something to click offensively, but as the Twins saw with Luis Rivas and could be seeing with Delmon Young at some point actual production takes precedence over youth. He's about to enter his seventh professional season and fourth straight year in the high minors, but aside from his age and status as a former first-round pick Plouffe has shown almost no reason for optimism. My guess is that by this time next year he'll either be in the majors or off the 40-man roster.

26. Shooter Hunt | Starter | DOB: 8/86 | Throws: Right | Draft: 2008-1
 
YEAR     LV      G     GS      ERA        IP       H     HR      SO     BB
2008     RK      4      4     0.47      19.0       4      0      34      6
         A-      7      7     5.46      31.1      26      2      34     27
2009     RK-     7      5     9.60      15.0      10      0       8     25
         A-      7      5    10.70      17.2      15      1      18     33

Sadly, those numbers aren't a misprint. Normally the Twins don't target pitchers with poor control, but they couldn't pass up the chance to draft Shooter Hunt when he fell to them with the No. 31 overall pick in 2008. Baseball America ranked Hunt as the draft's No. 4 pitcher after a dominant season at Tulane University and he blew away rookie-ball hitters upon signing, but he had a tough time throwing strikes following a promotion to low Single-A and then completely fell apart last year.

Hunt's control wasn't great in college and in ranking him as the Twins' fifth-best prospect heading into last year I wrote that "learning to harness his raw stuff will be the biggest challenge," but no one could have predicted a potentially career-wrecking descent into Rick Ankiel, Mark Wohlers, and Steve Blass territory. Hunt simply couldn't throw the ball over the plate, issuing 58 walks, uncorking 15 wild pitches, and plunking seven batters in 32.2 innings between rookie-ball and low Single-A.

When he's right Hunt has top-of-the-rotation stuff and the Twins were very fortunate that he fell into their laps on draft day, but history suggests that he'd have been better off blowing out his elbow or shoulder and missing a couple years rather than trying to come back from a debilitating case of the yips. Right now his 2010 season should be considered a success if Hunt can simply show some semblance of command, regardless of whether he gets knocked around in the process.

Once you're done here, check out my NBCSports.com blog and Twitter updates.

2010-02-02T00:02:00.004-06:00

Top 40 Twins Prospects of 2010: 35, 34, 33, 32, 31

Other entries in Top 40 Twins Prospects of 2010 series: 21-25, 26-30, 36-40.

35. Danny Rams | Catcher | DOB: 12/88 | Bats: Right | Draft: 2007-2
 
YEAR     LV      PA      AVG      OBP      SLG     HR    XBH     BB     SO
2007     RK-    106     .258     .311     .361      0      9      5     22
2008     RK     166     .228     .301     .428      5     16     15     71
2009     RK      72     .355     .444     .790      6     14      8     22
         A-     195     .229     .308     .429      7     21     18     77

After struggling through his first two pro seasons Danny Rams got off to a monster start at rookie-level Elizabethton last year, batting .355 with six homers and a 1.235 OPS in 16 games. That earned him a promotion to low Single-A, but Rams resumed struggling in his first taste of full-season action and hit just .229 with 77 strikeouts in 48 games. The good news is that he gunned down 37 percent of stolen base attempts, suggesting that Rams may have a shot to stick behind the plate long term.

His strong arm was merely an afterthought when the Twins made Rams a second-round pick in 2007, as Baseball America ranked him as the draft's top power bat among high schoolers. Rams' power has actually translated just fine to the pros with 18 homers and 62 total extra-base hits in 137 games for an outstanding .208 Isolated Power. Unfortunately that pop is masked by the inability to make consistent contact, with 195 strikeouts in 496 at-bats leading to a lowly .252 batting average.

Toss in just 41 non-intentional walks in 553 trips to the plate and Rams has basically been swinging hard in case he hits something so far, but he remains on this list for at least one more year due to his impressive power potential and the fact that he may still end up being able to play a passable catcher. When he doesn't strike out Rams has hit .415 with a .757 slugging percentage as a pro, but whiffing 35 percent of the time in the low minors is usually a very bad sign for a guy whose bat will carry him.

34. Bobby Lanigan | Starter | DOB: 5/87 | Throws: Right | Draft: 2008-3
 
YEAR     LV      G     GS      ERA        IP       H     HR      SO     BB
2008     RK     13     13     2.78      74.1      74      5      65      9
2009     A-     22     22     4.52     123.1     130     10     102     29
         A+      7      2     4.70      15.1      21      1      14      4

As a Division II program Adelphi University isn't exactly a baseball hotbed, but the school that produced Gary Dell'Abate and Public Enemy also provided the Twins with their 2008 third-round pick. A big righty who ranks as the school's all-time leader in strikeouts, Bobby Lanigan had a 1.94 ERA as a junior and then signed very quickly for $417,000, debuting at rookie-level Elizabethton with a 2.78 ERA and 65-to-9 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 13 starts.

He moved up to low Single-A to begin last year and then got a late-season promotion to high Single-A, where he worked mostly out of the bullpen. Lanigan pitched quite a bit better than a 4.54 ERA in 138.2 innings overall would suggest, posting a 116-to-33 strikeout-to-walk ratio while allowing 11 homers for a much nicer 3.25 FIP. However, his rate of 7.5 strikeouts per nine innings was nothing special against low-level competition and he was fairly easy to hit, with opponents batting .272.

All of which suggests that his upside is limited, but Lanigan combines a low-90s fastball with a strong slider and good control, so he definitely has major-league potential. If the Twins focus on his ERA they may make him a full-time reliever this season, but Lanigan certainly warrants more of a chance to stick as a starter after just one year of full-season experience. Either way he throws enough strikes and gets enough ground balls to be worth watching and won't be 23 years old until May.

33. Chris Herrmann | Left Field | DOB: 11/87 | Bats: Left | Draft: 2009-6
  
YEAR     LV      PA      AVG      OBP      SLG     HR    XBH     BB     SO
2009     RK     277     .297     .391     .453      7     22     33     40

Chris Herrmann was picked by the Orioles in the 10th round of the 2008 draft after being named to the junior college All-American team as a catcher at Alvin Community College in Texas, but decided not to sign and instead transferred to the University of Miami. That move worked out well for Herrmann, as he started in left field for the Hurricanes and hit .341/.455/.528 in 60 games before receiving a $135,000 signing bonus as the Twins' sixth-round pick last June.

Herrmann is the fifth University of Miami player selected by the Twins since 2006, and that list includes fellow top-40 prospects Danny Valencia and Carlos Gutierrez. And for whatever it's worth, Herrmann's college numbers were slightly better than Valencia's production at Miami, including a team-best .448 on-base percentage with 41 walks in 265 trips to the plate. He continued to show good plate discipline in his pro debut, batting .297/.391/.453 with 33 walks in 59 games at rookie-level Elizabethton.

Herrmann has previous experience at catcher and third base, but played mostly left field at both Miami and Elizabethton, so that's likely his long-term home and will make his offensive development key. The numbers from his pro debut don't mean a whole lot because hitters from major college programs are supposed to knock around rookie-ball pitchers, but he displayed more power than expected and clearly has a good eye at the plate.

32. Jose Morales | Catcher | DOB: 2/83 | Bats: Switch | Draft: 2001-3
 
YEAR     LV      PA      AVG      OBP      SLG     HR    XBH     BB     SO
2007     AAA    411     .311     .366     .399      2     28     30     44
2008     AAA    208     .315     .348     .426      4     13      8     28
2009     AAA    242     .336     .413     .436      2     16     28     27
         MLB    134     .311     .381     .361      0      6     14     22

Drafted by the Twins in the third round out of Puerto Rico in 2001, Jose Morales started his pro career as an infielder before moving behind the plate full time in 2003. Six seasons later his defense remains somewhere between atrocious and passable, and he narrowly maintains "prospect" status at age 27, but as a switch-hitter with a line-drive swing who rarely strikes out and has consistently posted strong batting averages Morales looks capable of being a solid backup to Joe Mauer.

Last year Morales shared catching duties with Mike Redmond while Mauer spent April on the disabled list, spent a second stint with the Twins in May, and then returned to Minnesota for good when rosters expanded in September. Morales has hit .317 in 222 games at Triple-A and .328 through 55 games in the majors, which along with Ron Gardenhire turning to him at designated hitter down the stretch has the fans who don't know any better wrongly assuming that he's destined to be an impact hitter.

In reality Morales failed to homer in 134 plate appearances for the Twins after going deep a grand total of eight times in 868 trips to the plate at Triple-A and also doesn't walk much, so he's not destined for stardom. However, strong contact skills should keep his batting average above .275 and he deserves an extended opportunity after spending three years at Rochester, where he batted .317/.373/.413 while striking out just 11.4 percent of the time. Don't expect greatness, but he should be plenty useful.

31. Derek McCallum | Second Base | DOB: 3/88 | Bats: Left | Draft: 2009-4
 
YEAR     LV      PA      AVG      OBP      SLG     HR    XBH     BB     SO
2009     RK     260     .241     .310     .382      5     19     23     55

A native Minnesotan who played both baseball and hockey at Hill-Murray, Derek McCallum was picked out of high school by the Twins in the 50th round of the 2006 draft. He opted to attend the University of Minnesota instead of signing for minimal cash and parlayed a huge junior season for the Gophers into a $210,000 bonus as the Twins' fourth rounder last June. Named a first-team All-American at second base, McCallum led the Big Ten in hits, homers, slugging percentage, and RBIs.

He also broke Robb Quinlan's school record by knocking in 86 runs in 59 games and became the first Gopher to bat .400 since 1994. McCallum struggled in his pro debut at rookie-level Elizabethton, hitting just .241 while striking out 55 times in 57 games after whiffing a total of 72 times in three years with the Gophers. He did show some solid pop with five homers and 19 total extra-base hits in 228 at-bats and drew a fair number of walks while receiving positive reviews for his glove at second base.

In theory at least McCallum should've thrived against less experienced competition in the Appalachian League, so the fact that he hit just .241 and had a tough time making consistent contact is worrisome. Given his rough pro debut it's also worth noting that prior to his monstrous junior campaign McCallum slugged just .417 through his first two college seasons. He'll move up the ladder to full-season ball in 2010 and look to show that he's capable of doing damage with a wood bat.

Once you're done here, check out my NBCSports.com blog and Twitter updates.

2010-02-01T00:06:00.010-06:00

Top 40 Twins Prospects of 2010: 40, 39, 38, 37, 36

Other entries in Top 40 Twins Prospects of 2010 series: 21-25, 26-30, 31-35.

40. Joe Testa | Reliever | DOB: 12/85 | Throws: Left | Sign: America
 
YEAR     LV      G     GS      ERA        IP       H     HR      SO     BB
2008     RK-     8      0     1.32      13.2       9      0      17      1
         A+      4      2     4.91      14.2      14      1      13      7
2009     A-     25      1     2.56      45.2      26      1      63     23
         A+     21      0     1.22      37.0      29      2      53     18

Joe Testa set school records for career starts, innings, strikeouts, and wins during his four seasons at Wagner College, but the diminutive left-hander went undrafted in 2008, signed with the Twins as a free agent, and shifted to the bullpen as a pro. Two years later he cracks this list because his numbers are simply too good to ignore. Testa has racked up 146 strikeouts in 111 pro innings, posting a 2.26 ERA while holding opponents to a .195 batting average.

Undrafted free agents who put up great numbers as relievers in the low minors generally don't warrant getting all that excited, but certainly Testa is at least worth keeping tabs on as he moves up the ladder. Poor control makes him an even worse bet, as Testa walked 41 in 82.2 innings between low Single-A and high Single-A last year, but a 1.96 ERA, 116 strikeouts, and just three homers allowed still made him the most effective pitcher in the entire Twins system based on Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP).

Testa's raw stuff definitely doesn't match those amazing numbers, but he's not a total junk-baller either. He gets plenty of movement on a wide assortment of off-speed pitches, but his fastball also tops out in the low-90s. Obviously moving beyond the low minors and facing more experienced hitters will show if Testa is the real deal or not, but if Wagner College can produce the reigning AL Rookie of the Year in Andrew Bailey why can't that same small-college pitching staff have been home to another solid arm?

39. Loek Van Mil | Reliever | DOB: 9/84 | Throws: Right | Sign: Netherlands
 
YEAR     LV      G     GS      ERA        IP       H     HR      SO     BB
2007     RK     13      0     2.62      24.0      14      0      23     17
2008     A-     28      0     3.22      44.2      36      5      42     25
2009     A+     25      0     2.86      34.2      29      3      23     17
         AA      8      0     2.45       7.1       7      0       5      6

Loek Van Mil has logged a grand total of just 154 innings in four pro seasons since the Twins signed him out of the Netherlands, but as a 7-foot-1 pitcher whose given name is "Ludovicus" his intrigue as a prospect goes well beyond the raw numbers. If he reaches the big leagues Van Mil would be the tallest player in MLB history and the Twins significantly increased the odds of that happening by adding him to the 40-man roster this offseason.

Van Mil's raw stuff certainly doesn't match his gargantuan presence on the mound, mostly because he doesn't throw 110 miles per hour, but he's added velocity since transitioning to the bullpen full time and is far from a novelty act. His command is spotty and Van Mil hasn't missed a ton of bats, yet opponents have hit just .233, .221, and .169 off him in the past three years. It remains to be seen if he can stay that tough to hit without more strikeouts, but it's possible normal ball-in-play rules won't apply to a giant.

Despite his limited workload as a pro Van Mil is already 25 years old, but the Twins have promoted him somewhat aggressively. He reached Double-A in his fourth pro campaign and figures to start this year back at New Britain, with a second-half promotion to Rochester and perhaps even a September call-up to Minnesota in the cards if he fares well. His prospect status has always been based more on intrigue than performance, but the scale is starting to tip in the other direction and he has a 3.03 career ERA.

38. Anderson Hidalgo | Third Base | DOB: 9/88 | Bats: Right | Sign: Venezuela
 
YEAR     LV      PA      AVG      OBP      SLG     HR    XBH     BB     SO
2008     RK-    107     .364     .453     .466      1      7     15     13
2009     RK     205     .291     .379     .469      6     19     25     38

Signed out of Venezuela as a 17-year-old in 2006, Anderson Hidalgo batted over .300 in back-to-back seasons in the Venezuelan Summer League before making his American minor-league debut in 2008 with a .364 batting average in the rookie-level Gulf Coast League. He rose to rookie-level Elizabethton last season and batted below .300 for the first time as a pro, but .291/.379/.469 from a 20-year-old in a pitcher-friendly environment was still plenty impressive.

In fact, his .848 OPS was 20 percent above the Appalachian League average and Hidalgo has now hit .316/.405/.468 in 76 rookie-ball games after batting .308/.384/.417 over 121 games in Venezuela. He's a very long way from the majors and the flameout rate for guys who knock around rookie-level pitching is incredibly high, but Hidalgo has shown some definite upside offensively while hitting .311 with gap power and a 101-to-90 strikeout-to-walk ratio.

He's played second base and some outfield previously, but Hidalgo has spent the past two seasons strictly as a third baseman despite being very small for the position at just 5-foot-9. Deibinson Romero cracked this list in both 2008 and 2009 thanks to his Hidalgo-like production in rookie-ball only to see his prospect stock plummet after being exposed to full-season competition, so hopefully this story is a bit different. The early numbers suggest plenty of upside, but we'll find out a lot more this season.

37. Steven Tolleson | Second Base | DOB: 11/83 | Bats: Right | Draft: 2005-5
 
YEAR     LV      PA      AVG      OBP      SLG     HR    XBH     BB     SO
2007     A+     571     .285     .388     .382      5     33     79     97
2008     AA     397     .300     .382     .466      9     38     44     74
2009     AA     173     .258     .343     .391      2     14     16     20
        AAA     394     .270     .338     .375      6     24     36     52

The son of former major leaguer Wayne Tolleson, Steven Tolleson was picked by the Twins in the fifth round of the 2005 draft after a three-year career at the University of South Carolina. Despite being a fifth rounder with college experience Tolleson moved slowly through the Twins' system, reaching Double-A for the first time as a 24-year-old in his fourth pro campaign. He had a breakout year there, displaying his usual strong on-base skills while adding power to the mix, but took a step backward last season.

Despite being a 25-year-old who spent all of 2008 at Double-A while hitting .300/.382/.466 he was sent back to New Britain to repeat the level and batted just .258/.343/.391 in 38 games before a promotion to Rochester. He didn't fare any better at Triple-A, batting .270/.338/.375 in 92 games, but did maintain good strike-zone control while seeing action everywhere except first base and catcher. Versatility is key for Tolleson, because he doesn't have the glove to be a regular shortstop and his bat is backup caliber.

Tolleson makes solid contact, draws a fair number of walks, and has some gap power, but he's hit just .276 with a .400 slugging percentage in 500 games as a minor leaguer despite a very deliberate climb up the organizational ladder. Toss in modest speed with a good but not great glove and Tolleson now looks destined to be a utility man at best, so at 26 years old this is a make-or-break time for his odds of reaching the majors. UPDATE: Just hours after posting this, Tolleson was lost to Oakland on waivers.

36. Josmil Pinto | Catcher | DOB: 3/89 | Bats: Right | Sign: Venezuela
 
YEAR     LV      PA      AVG      OBP      SLG     HR    XBH     BB     SO
2008     RK-     94     .329     .394     .541      1     13      9     14
2009     RK     230     .332     .387     .610     13     29     19     39

Signed out of Venezuela as a 16-year-old, Josmil Pinto's best position defensively is likely designated hitter and he's yet to advance past rookie-ball. But he's here because batting .330/.390/.590 through 77 pro games is just really impressive. Pinto topped the Appalachian League in home runs and slugging percentage last year, hitting .332/.387/.610 while knocking in 55 runs in 53 games. Those numbers are obviously fantastic in any context, but consider that the league as a whole hit just .257/.328/.384.

Pinto's overall production was 34 percent above par, including an Isolated Power that was 118 percent better than the league as a whole. He fails to rank any higher because smashing rookie-ball pitching hardly guarantees future success and regardless of competition we're talking about just a few hundred plate appearances. Plus, if reports of Pinto's lacking defensive ability prove accurate he'll have to keep hitting like that to have any chance at big-time value.

In fairness Pinto split time between designated hitter and catcher at Elizabethton and actually threw out 46 percent of steal attempts without making a ton of errors. The only thing less predictive than offensive numbers at rookie-ball are defensive numbers at rookie-ball, but there's at least reason to believe that Pinto isn't a complete disaster behind the plate. Assuming that the Twins promote him to full-season competition at low Single-A this year we should get a much clearer picture of Pinto's bat and glove.

Once you're done here, check out my NBCSports.com blog and Twitter updates.

2010-01-29T00:03:00.012-06:00

Twins Notes: Liriano, Neshek, Winfree, and McLemore

Earlier this month Ron Gardenhire passed along a report he received from the Dominican Republic saying that Francisco Liriano was "throwing the living fire out of the ball" with his fastball around 92-94 miles per hour and a "filthy" slider. Two winters ago Gardenhire passed along similar reports of Liriano "letting it fly" at 93-96 miles per hour "free and easy" while coming back from Tommy John surgery, yet he arrived at spring training throwing in the high-80s and was basically a mess.

So there were good reasons to be skeptical about third-hand reports of Liriano's velocity in winter ball this time around, particularly after he went 5-13 with a 5.80 ERA in 136.2 innings last season. However, my skepticism has faded because his numbers in the Dominican Republic are insanely good and last night he dominated while starting the final game of the league's World Series. And as an added bonus the game was broadcast online by ESPN, so those third-hand reports are no longer really needed.

First let's talk about the stats, which prior to last night included a 0.82 ERA and 54-to-7 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 43.2 innings. Whether his fastball was 85 or 95 those numbers are impossible to ignore. And it turns out last night showed that reports about his velocity were pretty accurate (assuming the radar gun used was based somewhat in reality). He tossed five innings of one-hit, shutout ball while racking up 10 strikeouts, was regularly clocked at 93-95 mph, and unleashed some wicked high-80s sliders.

To say that Liriano looked like the pre-surgery phenom who was baseball's best pitcher in 2006 would be hyperbole, but for one night at least he certainly looked closer to that guy than the one who averaged under 91 mph with his fastball for the past two seasons and constantly struggled just to throw strikes. Ultimately the real test will come when he faces MLB lineups, but he faced plenty of major leaguers in the DWL and his video game-like stats match the glowing reports. Skepticism is turning into optimism.

MLB.com's Kelly Thesier reports that Pat Neshek is "a little anxious" but "on track to be ready for the start of spring training" 14 months after Tommy John surgery. "I just want to face hitters to see where I'm at and get that in my head," Neshek said. "I want to face hitters to give me that total confidence back. Right now it feels like I'm killing time waiting for that to happen." Prior to going down in May of 2008 he had a 2.91 ERA with 143 strikeouts and a .188 opponents' batting average in 121 innings.

After signing Clay Condrey the Twins have six relievers as locks for the Opening Day roster, so even if they go with a 12-man pitching staff that leaves just a single spot for Neshek or one of the losers of the fifth-starter competition. And that assumes they won't sign Jarrod Washburn. In other words, healthy or not I'd say there's a decent chance Neshek will begin the season on the disabled list if only to give the Twins some extra time to sort out the pitching staff.

David Winfree was the Twins' minor league player of the year in 2005, but in the four seasons since then he failed to improve his plate discipline while sliding down the defensive spectrum, and now after seven years in the organization the former 13th-round pick has signed with the Yankees. I'm not sure if the Twins were even interested in keeping him around, but certainly Winfree's odds of reaching the big leagues with the Yankees have decreased. He'll probably be a part-time player for them at Triple-A.

Winfree once ranked as high as 13th on my annual list of the Twins' top prospects, but dropped to 27th in 2008 and 28th last season. He may have squeaked onto the list again this year, but it's tough to fault the Twins for letting him go. While a .275 hitter with good power and bad plate discipline is intriguing in a teenage third baseman, the exact same skill set in a 24-year-old corner outfielder who failed to show an ounce of improvement for five years is a much different story.

He has excellent power that's been masked somewhat by pitcher-friendly environments throughout the Twins' system, but that plus his age are about the only positives left on his resume at this point and it's tough to see Winfree developing into more than a platoon guy in the majors. His on-base percentages, by year: .329, .323, .308, .319, .317. His slugging percentages, by year: .452, .478, .426, .450, .460. And for his career Winfree has averaged 35 walks and 113 strikeouts per 600 plate appearances. Oh well.

Winfree becomes minor-league filler for the Yankees and the Twins added some Triple-A depth of their own by signing Mark McLemore to a minor-league deal. Not to be confused with the switch-hitter who played 19 seasons in the majors, this Mark McLemore is a 29-year-old left-hander who missed all of 2008 following Tommy John elbow surgery and struggled at Triple-A for the Astros in his return. Even before the injury his numbers were mediocre, so he'll likely compete for a rotation spot at Rochester.

Yahoo! Sports put together a directory of Twins blogs as part of Big League Stew's ongoing series, showing again why my blogging career would be much different had my parents named me something that didn't begin with back-to-back A's. It got me first in line for french toast sticks in elementary school and now it gets me first in line for links.

Lastly, my annual series ranking and profiling the Twins' top 40 prospects starts Monday with 36-40, unless of course they make a big move over the weekend or something. Oh, and Link-O-Rama returns next week too, because my hard drive can only store so many bookmarked Mila Kunis photo shoots.

Once you're done here, check out my NBCSports.com blog and Twitter updates.

2010-01-27T00:05:00.000-06:00

Twins Sign Jim Thome To One-Year Deal

As the legendary Ron Burgundy once said: "Boy, that escalated quickly."

Just days after rumors started swirling about the Twins' interest in Jim Thome, the two sides agreed to a one-year deal worth $1.5 million in guaranteed money and another $750,000 in potential incentives. At that price the signing is an absolute no-brainer move for the Twins and should end any debate about whether he's a worthwhile addition. Now the biggest question revolves around Thome's role, which the Twins insisted yesterday will be fairly minimal.

Bill Smith, Ron Gardenhire, and company really like the notion of having Thome available off the bench as pinch-hitter in the late innings. And they ought to, because the guy topped an .840 OPS last year for the 16th time in 17 seasons. Of course, as long as they're shifting players into unnecessarily limited roles Joe Mauer would probably be an even better pinch-hitter, Denard Span would likely be a fantastic pinch-runner, and Scott Baker would surely fare well as a long reliever.

All of which is a long way of saying that Thome is still far too dangerous offensively to limit him strictly to pinch-hitting duties. Against right-handed pitching he hit .262/.383/.498 last season and .274/.402/.551 over the past three years, which is basically the same as Justin Morneau's production versus righties during that span. Seriously. Morneau hit .272/.379/.526 against righties last season and .293/.385/.529 from 2007-2009, which is at most marginally better than Thome's numbers.

Now, he's 39 years old and has certainly declined from his MVP-caliber peak as a 1.000-OPS monster, so some further slippage can be expected from Thome in 2010, but the notion that he's just another in the line of washed-up veterans to join the Twins via free agency is silly. He's only an emergency option at first base and has always struggled with lefties, but remains a legit middle-of-the-order bat versus righties. So why are the Twins indicating that he'll be used merely as a bench bat? Delmon Young.

By trading Carlos Gomez to the Brewers for J.J. Hardy the Twins committed to Young as their starting left fielder. Certainly giving a 24-year-old everyday playing time is a good idea for his development, but the problem is that Young has done nothing to warrant that many at-bats and has been vastly inferior to Thome against right-handed pitching. In fact, Thome's mediocre-for-him 2009 numbers beat Young's career line versus righties by 66 points of on-base percentage and 102 points of slugging percentage.

That's an awful lot of production to forfeit in the name of aiding the development of a guy who's been an absolutely terrible all-around player through 1,851 plate appearances in the majors, so my hope is that Gardenhire eventually sees the benefit of getting Thome into the lineup regularly against righties, using him at DH while Jason Kubel shifts to left field and Young goes to the bench. That would significantly upgrade the lineup and Young is a horrible defensive left fielder anyway, so there's no big dropoff there.

One of the criticisms that I've seen lobbed at the Thome signing is that he does nothing to address the infield, where right now Nick Punto and Brendan Harris are the projected starters at second and third base. While true, those are separate issues and paying Thome about $1 million beyond the minimum salary can't possibly change their plans that much. If they were going to make a run at Orlando Hudson or Felipe Lopez they still can and if they weren't then at least adding Thome improves them elsewhere.

Another criticism is that Thome adds to what was already an overly left-handed offense. There's some truth to that, yet for all their lefty bats last season the Twins had a higher OPS against lefties (.785) than righties (.768) and even I'm not advising Thome take starts away from Young versus southpaws. Plus, with as few as four lefty starters and zero lefty closers on the AL Central's other four teams the division is a place where a lineup stacked with Denard Span, Mauer, Morneau, Kubel, and Thome can thrive.

Even if they stick to the stated plan of using Thome off the bench he's worth the modest investment, in part because he can still do plenty of damage in a couple hundred at-bats and in part because should Morneau, Kubel, or Michael Cuddyer get hurt the Twins now have a viable replacement. However, the potential is there for Thome to make a much bigger impact if the Twins are willing to give him a sizable chunk of Young's starts versus righties. Give him 350 plate appearances and this can be a great move.

Once you're done here, check out my NBCSports.com blog and Twitter updates.

2010-01-26T17:12:00.004-06:00

Report: Twins Sign Jim Thome

Kelsie Smith of the St. Paul Pioneer Press reports that the Twins have agreed to terms with Jim Thome on an incentive-laden one-year contract. As noted yesterday when the whole thing was merely in rumor stage I'm in favor of bringing in Thome, but I'll have a full breakdown of the move here tomorrow. And if you can't wait until then, I'll be talking Twins (and Thome) at around 7:30 tonight with Joe Anderson on KSTP-1500 radio. Click here to listen online.

2010-01-25T00:05:00.001-06:00

Twins "Have Real Interest" In Signing Jim Thome

Friday morning a rumor was circulating out of Chicago that the Twins were close to signing Jim Thome and when Joe Christensen of the Minneapolis Star Tribune did a bit of digging he surprisingly found that there was actually some fire behind the smoke:

I called a Twins official, expecting to hear that this is totally far-fetched, and turns out they do have real interest in Thome and haven't ruled out their chances of signing him. Probably not today, mind you, but it's getting late in the offseason and the prices for free agents are falling fast. The Twins are bargain hunting, and if Thome were to accept a bench role at a severely reduced price--he made $13 million last year--there could be a match.

Obviously that's a long way from "close to signing," but it's intriguing nonetheless. At first glance you'd think that the 39-year-old Thome would be just another name on the long list of over-the-hill veterans the Twins have brought in via free agency, but there's a big difference: Thome is still a very dangerous hitter. He batted .249/.366/.481 with 23 homers in 434 plate appearances last season, topping an .800 OPS for the 16th time in 17 seasons, and hit .265/.391/.542 during his four years with the White Sox.

Thome hasn't played first base regularly since 2005 and didn't see a single inning defensively in either of the past two seasons, but the fact that he's strictly a designated hitter at this point matters little with Justin Morneau around. His other big flaw is a career-long weakness against left-handed pitching, but while the Twins' lineup is certainly very heavy on lefty bats their OPS against righties (.768) was actually slightly worse than their OPS against lefties (.785) last season. They aren't that unbalanced.

Thome isn't going to help much versus lefties, but he crushed righties to the tune of .274/.402/.551 over the past three seasons, including .262/.383/.498 last year. To put that into some context, consider that Morneau hit .272/.379/.526 against righties last season and .293/.385/.529 from 2007-2009. So yes, he can't play defense or hit lefties, but when facing righties Thome has essentially been as productive as Morneau. If platooned at DH versus righties Thome would be a huge upgrade to the Twins' lineup.

However, that would mean shifting Jason Kubel from DH to left field while benching Delmon Young. Both moves would be just fine with me, because Kubel is no worse than Young defensively and Young platooning against lefties is about as much playing time as his performance has warranted so far, but my guess is that the Twins think differently. In fact, Christensen suggests that if signed Thome would serve merely in "a bench role."

He'd certainly beef up the bench and provide Ron Gardenhire with an interesting late-inning option, but then again so would Joe Mauer if for some odd reason the Twins ceased starting him. In other words, Thome hits right-handed pitching too well not to start against them, particularly when the alternative is Young with his career .317 on-base percentage and .396 slugging percentage versus righties. Thome is a decent bet to top those marks by at least 50 points of OBP and 100 points of SLG.

Right now the Twins will have Young in left field and Kubel at DH against righties, but having Thome at DH, Kubel in left field, and Young on the bench would make them a superior team for those 100 or so games. Whether or not Thome is willing to take a one-year contract for modest money and whether or not the Twins are able to recognize that he shouldn't be limited to a bench role are big questions, but if the answer to both is yes then there's no doubt that Thome would significantly improve the offense.

Once you're done here, check out my NBCSports.com blog and Twitter updates.

2010-01-22T00:05:00.000-06:00

Twins Avoid Arbitration With All Eight Eligible Players

Despite having an MLB-high eight players eligible for salary arbitration this year the Twins will avoid the process altogether after agreeing to pre-hearing contracts with Carl Pavano, J.J. Hardy, Matt Guerrier, Delmon Young, Francisco Liriano, Jesse Crain, Brendan Harris, and Pat Neshek. The vast majority of arbitration-eligible players never get to a hearing because submitted figures are typically close enough for a compromise near the midpoint and neither side wants to engage in what can be an ugly process.

Pavano is a special case in that he's actually a free agent who accepted the Twins' arbitration offer last month, guaranteeing a return to Minnesota via a one-year deal at a price to be determined later. At the time my prediction was that he'd get "at least $6 million" and he ended up accepting $7 million, so the only surprising aspect is the contract including zero incentives for the oft-injured starter. Essentially the Twins signed him to a one-year, $7 million deal and can offer Pavano arbitration again next winter.

Hardy gets the second-highest salary at $5 million, which was exactly my guess at the time of the trade with Milwaukee. He'll be arbitration eligible again next season and then becomes a free agent. Guerrier gets $3.15 million in his final year before free agency, which is perhaps $500,000 more than expected. Young gets $2.6 million, which is a ton for a player's first crack at arbitration and suggests that he'll be very expensive in 2011 and 2012 whether his production improves or not.

Liriano getting $1.6 million for his first year of arbitration is also steep, whereas Neshek signed for just $625,000 in his first round of eligibility. Crain made $1.75 million in 2009 as part of a three-year, $3.25 million deal signed before he was even arbitration eligible, and he'll earn $2 million in his final season before free agency. And last but not least is Harris, who unlike the other seven arbitration-eligible guys avoided the process by agreeing to a two-year contract worth $3.2 million plus incentives.

Because this is Harris' first season of arbitration eligibility I'm unclear why the Twins would bother with a two-year deal. He was already under team control through 2012 anyway, so like Crain now that his three-year contract has expired Harris will still be arbitration eligible when the two-year pact is finished. Signing him for two years gives the Twins cost certainty, but Harris is hardly a threat to earn a big raise following a breakout and there's room to question whether they should even want him around in 2011.

He's been disappointing offensively and defensively since being included in the Young-for-Matt Garza swap two offseasons ago, hitting .263/.319/.379 in 943 plate appearances while proving to be a liability at shortstop and second base. He's been productive against left-handed pitching with a .303/.360/.425 line over the past three seasons and has a solid glove at third base, but with awful range up the middle and a .257/.313/.387 mark against righties I'm not sure why they needed to lock Harris in for 2011.

In all the Twins committed about $25 million to their eight arbitration-eligible players, raising the overall payroll commitment for 2010 to approximately $90 million. That represents a huge increase over their $65 million payroll last year, but a) with the new ballpark opening in April that was expected, and b) the payroll was already as high as $72 million in 2007. My hope is that there's still enough room to add an infielder for about $5 million since they're apparently willing to waste that much on Jarrod Washburn.

Once you're done here, check out my NBCSports.com blog and Twitter updates.

2010-01-20T00:02:00.000-06:00

Twins Bullpen Nearly Set After Condrey Signing

They haven't done much so far this offseason, but last week the Twins made a pair of corresponding bullpen moves by releasing Bobby Keppel and signing Clay Condrey to a one-year contract. Condrey made $650,000 in 2009 and was arbitration eligible for the first time, but the Phillies non-tendered the 34-year-old right-hander last month rather than risk paying him about $1 million. He got $900,000 from the Twins and Keppel, who never deserved a call-up in the first place, signed with a team in Japan.

Condrey's path to the majors was a unique one. Undrafted after playing college ball at McNeese State, Condrey was 22 years old and working as an electrician in Texas when his father suggested he attend a tryout advertised in the local newspaper. He was impressive enough to earn a call-back and received offers from 11 teams following his second throwing session, opting to sign with San Diego for a $500 bonus being offered by former Padres scout and current Red Sox general manager Theo Epstein.

Condrey made his big-league debut as a 26-year-old in 2002 and spent parts of two seasons with the Padres, posting a 5.49 ERA in 61 innings split between the rotation and bullpen. Traded to the Phillies in the spring of 2004, he spent the next two seasons at Triple-A before making it back to the majors in early 2006. In both 2006 and 2007 he frequently went back and forth from Triple-A to Philadelphia while being dropped from the 40-man roster and going unclaimed on waivers several times.

His first full season in the majors came in 2008, at age 32, and he also stuck with the Phillies for all of last year, although Condrey spent most of the second half on the disabled list with a strained oblique. Strictly a reliever in parts of four seasons in Philadelphia, he appeared in 161 games with a 3.45 ERA, .290 opponents' batting average, and 102-to-58 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 190 innings. While the ERA is nice, a .290 opponents' batting average and just 102 strikeouts in 190 innings are hardly stellar.

With that said, Condrey's walk rate is misleadingly high because 16 of 58 free passes were intentional, and he's a sinker-slider pitcher who allowed just 17 homers in 827 plate appearances and induced a ground ball on 51.3 percent of his balls in play. Not only would that have been the highest ground-ball rate on the Twins last year, Keppel was the only pitcher on the staff above even 47 percent. And unlike Keppel, Condrey throws strikes and has a history of big-league success.

Condrey has a 4.43 career xFIP, including marks of 4.02, 4.81, 4.37, and 4.01 in the past four seasons, which would make him a serviceable middle reliever. Given that modest upside and the fact that he's 34 years old I'm not sure the Twins really needed to sign Condrey, because if Pat Neshek comes back healthy the bullpen was already going to be plenty crowded and they also have prospects like Anthony Slama and Robert Delaney waiting in the wings for an opportunity.

On the other hand the price is right, Condrey is definitely a capable middle reliever, and going to spring training with too many useful bullpen arms is usually a nice problem to have. Assuming a 12-man staff the bullpen locks are Condrey, Joe Nathan, Jon Rauch, Matt Guerrier, Jose Mijares, and Jesse Crain, seemingly leaving one spot for a healthy Neshek or the loser of a fifth-starter competition. That's a very solid group, particularly if Neshek comes back with anything resembling his previous effectiveness.

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2010-01-18T00:05:00.000-06:00

Twins Notes: Catching Up

Between the holidays and magazine-making hibernation I've been a bad blogger lately, so while things get back to normal in this space here's my attempt to catch up on some Twins stuff I've neglected ...

Mike Redmond made it clear that he planned to keep playing at age 39 despite the Twins making no effort to re-sign their longtime backup catcher and sure enough he found a new home with the Indians. After trading Victor Martinez and Kelly Shoppach the Indians are slated to go with Lou Marson as their starting catcher, so Redmond will mentor the 24-year-old rookie while likely seeing a bit more playing time than he got with the Twins when Joe Mauer was healthy.

Jose Morales' presence was behind the Twins' willingness to let Redmond leave as a free agent and that was a sound decision, but now Morales will be sidelined for 6-8 weeks following surgery to repair a strained tendon in his right wrist. Opening Day is still about three months away, so barring setbacks Morales should have enough time to enter the season as Mauer's new backup, but any recovery delays may lead to Drew Butera spending some time on the roster and he's hit .214/.296/.316 in the minors.

Speaking of 39-year-old former Twins, Eddie Guardado will try for an 18th season in the majors after signing a minor-league deal with the Nationals. Guardado barely managed more strikeouts than walks for the Rangers last season and hasn't had an xFIP below 5.00 since 2006, but he certainly picked the right bullpen to eek out one more year. As always, MLB.com provided an amusing, team-approved spin on the signing:

The Nationals continue to be busy this offseason, and they are set to sign left-hander Eddie Guardado, according to a baseball source. Terms of the deal have not been disclosed. The Nationals have been interested in Guardado, 39, since the Winter Meetings. According to the source, team scouts told general manager Mike Rizzo that Guardado would be a big help to the club. Rizzo was unavailable for comment.

If they ever make a sequel to All the President's Men about a 39-year-old reliever inking a minor-league deal with a 100-loss team, the MLB.com story can serve as the source material and Bill Ladson can be this generation's Woodward and Bernstein. Just to recap: An unnamed "baseball source" revealed that "team scouts" informed a general manager a player "would be a big help to the club" and then the GM "was unavailable for comment." Guardadogate, perhaps? "Get out your notebook. There's more."

Like every year since 1998 the Baseball Writers Association of America failed to elect Bert Blyleven to the Hall of Fame, but the big difference this time is that with 74.2 percent of the vote he's a near-lock to crack the 75-percent barrier for induction on the next ballot. In the past I've been a strong supporter of his candidacy and continue to believe he's a clear Hall of Famer, but you won't see me stumping on his behalf because a) the BBWAA has turned me off to anything they vote on, and b) Blyleven is a hypocrite.

When it comes to evaluating his own performance Blyleven is quick to turn the attention away from his win-loss record, choosing instead to quote strikeout-to-walk ratio, WHIP, or even adjusted ERA+ while noting that his teams often failed to provide decent run support. And he's absolutely correct to do so. Unfortunately in his role as Twins television announcer when it comes to evaluating any other pitcher's performance he's just as quick to focus on wins and losses while ignoring all that other stuff.

Asked last week how Francisco Liriano has looked pitching winter ball in the Dominican Republic, Ron Gardenhire said:

I just got a report that he's throwing the living fire out of the ball down in the Dominican. He threw eight innings the other day, and his fastball was 92 to 94 [miles per hour] and his slider was filthy.

Liriano has indeed been impressive in the Dominican Republic, starting seven times with a minuscule ERA and 41-to-4 strikeout-to-walk ratio. However, when it comes to passing along third-hand reports about Liriano's velocity Gardenhire isn't exactly a trustworthy source. Two winters ago, as Liriano was making his way back from Tommy John elbow surgery, Gardenhire shared the following report on his throwing sessions at the Twins' academy in the Dominican Republic:

He's letting it fly. He threw two innings at the academy and they said he was averaging 93 [miles per hour] and throwing it up to 96. Free and easy.

If you replace "letting it fly" and "free and easy" with "throwing the living fire out of the ball" and "filthy" it's basically the same quote. In reality Liriano arrived at spring training throwing in the high-80s and was the furthest thing from "letting it fly" or "free and easy," at which point third-hand reports relayed to the media by Gardenhire ceased having any credibility. This time the glowing reports are paired with some data, so perhaps the 2010 version will prove more accurate than the 2008 version, but I'm skeptical.

BizOfBaseball.com's Maury Brown compiled payroll data from 2000-2009 and found that the Twins ranked 25th in spending for the decade. Given that fact a .533 winning percentage and five playoff trips during that time is plenty impressive, although less so when you consider that the other four teams in the AL Central ranked 14th, 17th, 19th, and 26th in 2000-2009 payroll. For the decade the Twins' payroll was 33 percent below average and about $1.3 billion (yes, billion) lower than the top-ranked Yankees.

At the winter meetings last month the Twins reportedly offered Glen Perkins to the Padres for Kevin Kouzmanoff, who was traded to the A's over the weekend for Scott Hairston and Aaron Cunningham. I'm far from a huge Kouzmanoff fan, but he's certainly worth more than just Perkins at this point and the Padres ended up getting a better return from the A's. In writing about the Kouzmanoff trade and Perkins' future with the Twins, LaVelle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star Tribune opined:

To the Twins' credit, they didn't add more. Perkins and Kouzmanoff are similar players in that they are still looking for their breakthrough season. Suggestions that the Twins should have added Alexi Casilla to the deal are crazy.

Neal's paragraph consists of 38 words and I disagree with all of them. Kouzmanoff is a more valuable player than Perkins and the Twins have more use for a third baseman than a fifth starter, so why they deserve "credit" for not adding more to the offer is beyond me. In particular, the notion that it would be "crazy" to package Alexi Casilla with Perkins is ... well, crazy. Casilla will turn 26 years old this season and has hit .244/.301/.314 through 243 games in the majors after batting .278/.352/.350 at Triple-A.

He's not a great defender or base-stealer, and aside from a 50-game stretch in 2008 there's nothing to suggest that his bat will be starting caliber. If the Twins thought dealing Perkins for Kouzmanoff made sense they should almost certainly have been willing to toss in Casilla, who has no clear role for 2010 and dwindling upside. Of course, Neal apparently doesn't think much of Kouzmanoff if he equates him to Perkins as "similar players in that they are still looking for their breakthrough season."

In reality Perkins has a 4.73 ERA and arm problems have limited him to just 281.2 career innings while Kouzmanoff has already been a solidly above-average starting third baseman for three full seasons in the majors and has hit .285/.327/.474 away from pitcher-friendly Petco Park. Not only is he better than and in no way similar to Perkins, there's a reasonable shot that Kouzmanoff has already accumulated more value than Perkins and Casilla will combine for in their entire careers. But hey, maybe I'm crazy.

Whether or not the Twins end up trading Perkins, my hope is that they trust the in-house candidates for the final rotation spot rather than wasting money on Jarrod Washburn, who reportedly turned down their $5 million offer recently. Washburn is an overrated 35-year-old coming off knee surgery and they'd be far better off investing in an infielder while letting their various younger, cheaper fifth-starter options battle for the job. Shouldn't they have learned something from Livan Hernandez and Ramon Ortiz?

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2010-01-13T00:05:00.004-06:00

Guest Blogger: Chris Jaffe on Tom Kelly

I'm at the Beckett Media offices in Dallas putting the finishing touches on Rotoworld's annual baseball magazine, so in my absence here's a special treat. The following is an excerpt about Tom Kelly from friend of AG.com Chris Jaffe's new book, "Evaluating Baseball's Managers, 1876-2008." Not only is he a really nice guy, Jaffe has done a tremendous amount of work analyzing managers throughout history and if you enjoy his take on the Twins' former skipper the whole book is a must-read. Enjoy ...

Tom Kelly

W/L Record: 1,140-1,244 (.478)

Managed:

Full Seasons: Minnesota 1987-2001

Majority in: (none)

Minority of: Minnesota 1986

Birnbaum Database: +75 runs

Individual Hitters: -107 runs

Individual Pitchers: -249 runs

Pythagenpat Difference: +96 runs

Team Offense: +80 runs

Team Defense: +255 runs

Team Characteristics: By most metrics, his teams had outstanding defenses. (Defensive Efficiency Ratio finds them average, but that could be a park effect). His offenses centered on contact hitters who slapped out singles. He had little use for power hitters, and even less for bunts or the hit and run. His pitching staffs based their game on control.

Several years ago, ESPN.com columnist Rob Neyer invented the Beane Count in honor of Oakland A�s GM Billy Beane�s teams, which excelled at walks and home runs on both sides of the game. Tom Kelly�s Twins took a different approach to baseball, eschewing the things that brought success to Oakland�s early twenty-first century clubs. When the Tendencies Database gets a hold of the Beane Count�s four categories (all adjusted per plate appearances or innings pitched), these are baseball�s most anti-Beane Count managers:

Least Interest in Beane Count

Tom Kelly 4.907

Burt Shotton 4.533

Jimmy Dykes 4.529

Fred Hutchinson 4.516

Jimmy McAleer 4.505

Kelly wins in a rout. Actually, that understates his tendencies because Kelly�s pitching staffs were terrific at avoiding walks. With the remaining three components, Kelly scores nearly well enough (4.320) to crack the above list.

He was content to punt homers with Minnesota. After 1987, no Twin ever hit 30 homers in a season for Kelly, while baseball�s other teams had 342 different 30-home run performances from 1988-2001. In only two of his fifteen seasons in Minnesota did the Twins hit more home runs than they allowed, both times by the narrowest of margins (151 to 146 in 1988, and 140 to 139 in 1991). From 1987-2001, Tom Kelly�s Twins allowed 2,612 homers while blasting 1,902, which amounts to a home run differential of nearly -47 per season.

For context, fewer than 130 teams (out of 2,500+) in baseball history have been -47 or worse in a season. Kelly�s -710 homer differential is the worst in baseball history. Only one other manager (Jimmy Dykes) is below -400. Here are the worst single season homer differentials in baseball history:

Year Team HR Dif. Manager

1996 MIN -115 HR Tom Kelly

1999 MIN -103 HR Tom Kelly

2000 MIN -96 HR Tom Kelly

1995 MIN -90 HR Tom Kelly

2006 KCR -89 HR Buddy Bell

2000 KCR -89 HR Tony Muser

A clear pattern exists. Please note 1995 was not a full season due to a labor stoppage.

Those homer differentials reflect not only the available talent, but also Kelly�s coaching tendencies. Former Twins� prospect David Ortiz once gave an interview explaining why his power erupted when he came to the Red Sox. He noted that in the minors his plate approach focused on hitting for power but when he came to Minnesota, they wanted him to shorten up his swing and approach the game the way everyone else on the team did. Thus a man with a pair of 30 home run seasons in the minors hit only one every nine games with the Twins. Upon arrival in Boston they let him go back to his old ways, and his homers, walks, and strikeouts all rose.

That story reveals the downside to Tom Kelly�s managing, as he could be too inflexible for his (or the team�s) own good. While Kelly was the worst manager for the David Ortizes of the world, he was not a net negative on the job. Kelly had a losing record in his career, but that was due to Minnesota�s rosters. In the Birnbaum Database his score of +78 runs seems merely decent, but when circumstances are accounted for, he rises up.

To compare: Kelly had +78 runs in 2,384 games with a .478 winning percentage while John McNamara scored at �174 runs in 2,415 games and a .484 winning percentage. The cigar-smoking Kelly had won four minor league manager of the year titles before getting his shot at the big league level.

Kelly punted Beane Count stats because his frame of reference centered on balls in play. The Twins were a difficult team to fan under Kelly. For example, from 1990-93 the squad struck out 795 times per year. Other AL teams averaged over 900 whiffs per season during this span. Several players had their strikeout rates drop under Kelly. These improvements were consistent, though rarely dramatic. Gary Gaetti, Greg Gagne, and Corey Koskie were free swingers in their careers, yet none fanned quite as regularly under Kelly as they did away from him. The tendency was especially noteworthy with Kent Hrbek. The burly first baseman routinely had 80-90 whiffs a year, but once Kelly arrived he never had more than 60.

A man who fanned more than once every seven at bats spent the rest of his career going down that way only one in nine times. Even Paul Molitor, who ended his 21-year career under Kelly, had his best single season strikeout rate under Kelly. From 1987-2001, no Twin struck out more than 130 times for him. The other AL teams had it happen to them on 112 occasions. Kelly�s Twins made contact and legged out hits. In the Tendencies Database, Kelly had a higher score with batting average than Joe McCarthy (0.730 to 0.737).

With his kind of player, Kelly could be quite effective. Brian Harper was Kelly�s kind of player. A back up journeyman catcher, Harper underwhelmed baseball by combining substandard defense with an inability to slug or work the count. Kelly focused on what Harper could do � put the ball in play � and made him Minnesota�s starting catcher. From 1988-93, in what should have been Harper�s declining years, he developed into one of the game�s best-hitting catchers, posting a .306 batting average while fanning once every twenty at bats.

However, it would be wrong to consider Tom Kelly a smallball manager. He had no interest in the hit and run, for example. While a manager like Casey Stengel instinctively monitored the game to avoid possible double play situations, Kelly stoically resigned himself to double plays as a cost of doing business. In the 1990s, only thirteen teams hit into 150 double plays. Kelly managed five of them, and his 1999 Twins had 149. In 1996, the Twins grounded into 172, the second highest total in baseball history. As a result, double plays hurt Kelly more than any other manager in history. If you take team DP and GIDP, and give them the Mauch adjustments, here are the worst career double play differentials:

Worst Double Play Differentials

Tom Kelly -278 double plays

Mayo Smith -222 double plays

Joe Torre -210 double plays

Mel Ott -189 double plays

Bruce Bochy -184 double plays

Kelly possesses a sizable lead.

When it came to run prevention, Kelly was a practitioner of the classic Comiskey philosophy of throwing strikes and playing sound defense. At the end of his career, he had one of the greatest defensive outfields of all-time with the �Soul Patrol� of Torii Hunter, Jacque Jones, and Matt Lawton. The same squad had Gold Glover Doug Mientkiewicz at first. Ten of Kelly�s teams were in the top four in fielding percentage. Twice they led the league in Fielding Win Shares, and were runner up two other times.

A manager can get away with minimizing the Beane Count approach by maximizing his team�s quality on balls in play. Even more than defense, though, control pitching typified Kelly�s squads. Ten times they were in the top four in the AL in fewest walks per nine innings. The league averaged 3.5BB/9IP, but Kelly�s Twins stayed under that every year except 1995. In the two dozen times someone threw at least 200 innings for him, nine times the hurler allowed less than two walks every nine innings.

This combination of solid defense with splendid control pitching allowed Kelly to minimize the importance of hurlers who blew opponents away. None of Kelly�s starting pitchers ever struck out 200 batters in a season; rather unusual for a late twentieth-century manager. Only one-third of the pitchers who qualified for an ERA title under his watch struck out batters at a superior rate to the league as a whole. This fits into the philosophy pioneered by Comiskey and perfected by McKechnie: defense plus control equals less need for power pitching. Brad Radke was the ultimate Tom Kelly pitcher. He never struck fear in anyone�s heart but he was durable and had great control. In 2001 he walked 1.04BB/9IP, the second lowest total by an American League pitcher since Walter Johnson.

With his lack of interest in the long ball and offensive walks, Kelly appeared to be a man from another era as the game�s power numbers surged in the 1990s. Apparently Kelly thought so, because he voluntarily retired after 2001, despite only being 51 years old. In all baseball history, only one other person with at least 2,000 games managed who never served as a player-manager left at such a young age � Frank Selee, a century earlier. And that was not voluntary, Selee was dying.

Click here for more information on Chris Jaffe's new book, "Evaluating Baseball's Managers, 1876-2008."

2010-01-11T00:05:00.000-06:00

Top 40 Minnesota Twins: #33 Greg Gagne

GREGORY CHRISTOPHER GAGNE | SS | 1983-1992 | CAREER STATS
 
   G       PA      AVG      OBP      SLG     OPS+    WARP     WS
1140     3695     .249     .292     .385      83     21.1     88

About a week into the 1982 season the cost-cutting Twins traded starting shortstop Roy Smalley to the Yankees for All-Star setup man Ron Davis, Paul Boris, and a 20-year-old prospect named Greg Gagne. Davis was considered the big name coming back to Minnesota, but he flopped in the closer role while Gagne ended up being the real find as Smalley's eventual replacement. He spent 1982 hitting poorly at Double-A, but the former fifth-round pick from Massachusetts bounced back at Triple-A in 1983.

Gagne batted .255/.323/.462 with 17 homers in 119 games there as a 21-year-old and also got his first tastes of the big leagues with a brief stint in June as an injury replacement and a September call-up. He went just 3-for-27 (.111) and found himself at Triple-A again in 1984. Gagne put together another strong season there, hitting .280/.374/.441 with nine homers in 70 games, but didn't make it back to Minnesota until rosters expanded in September and merely sat on the bench once he got there.

Tired of trotting out guys like Ron Washington, Houston Jimenez, and Lenny Faedo, the Twins turned to the 23-year-old Gagne as their starting shortstop in 1985. He hit just .225/.279/.317 with two homers in 114 games as a rookie and missed time with injuries in May and August. In his absence the Twins turned to Smalley, who had come back in a trade that offseason. Back problems forced Smalley to be a designated hitter in 1986 and the Twins went with Gagne on a full-time basis at shortstop.

He came up with a solid sophomore campaign, hitting .250/.301/.398 with 12 homers in 156 games to rank 11th among all major-league shortstops in Value Over Replacement Player. In the second-to-last game of the season, Gagne hit inside-the-park homers in each of his first two at-bats against Chicago starter Floyd Bannister, and then smacked a triple off reliever Gene Nelson in his third at-bat to come 90 feet short of an all-time record.

After committing an AL-worst 26 errors in 1986, Gagne had a team record 47-game errorless streak in 1987. He also hit .265/.310/.430 with 10 homers in 137 games as the Twins defeated the Tigers in the ALCS and beat the Cardinals in the World Series. Gagne hit just .229 in 12 postseason games, but had three homers and four doubles, drove in six runs, scored 10 times, and delivered a sixth-inning single that drove Tom Brunansky in as the go-ahead run in Game 7 of the World Series.

Gagne had three fairly mediocre years from 1988-1990, and then hit .265/.310/.395 as the Twins once again won the World Series in 1991. This time Gagne hit just .195 in 12 postseason games and had just one homer, but it was a big one. With the Twins clinging to a 1-0 lead in the fifth inning of Game 1 against Atlanta, Gagne launched a three-run homer off Charlie Leibrandt that provided all the breathing room Jack Morris needed in a 5-2 win.

Gagne became a free agent after batting .246/.280/.346 in 1992 and signed a three-year contract with Kansas City. He gave the Royals three solid years and then finished up his 15-year career with two seasons in the NL playing for the Dodgers. Gagne retired at 35 years old and was a starting shortstop in the major leagues from the moment the Twins handed him the job in 1985 to the moment he hung up the spikes in 1997, logging nearly 15,000 innings at the position.

Researching these rankings has changed my opinion of Gagne's career more than any other Twins player. My only real memories of him in a Twins uniform were from 1991 and 1992, and my primary experience seeing him play came after he departed as a free agent. By that point Gagne was on the downside of his career and shortstops were starting to put up numbers that made his .249/.292/.385 line with the Twins look pathetic.

However, take a closer look back at Gagne's decade in Minnesota and you'll discover a player who was more valuable than his paltry .677 OPS suggests. Perhaps the biggest key to seeing Gagne's value is in understanding the difference between baseball today and baseball in the 1980s. Not only is offense in general up significantly since then, players like Alex Rodriguez, Derek Jeter, Miguel Tejada, and Nomar Garciaparra revolutionized the way we look at shortstops.

Meanwhile, during Gagne's time with the Twins the average shortstop hit a measly .252/.309/.346. For comparison, since 2000 the average MLB shortstop has hit .270/.325/.400. That may not seem like a huge difference, but it is. For overall offensive production, that's a gap of about 10 percent. If you take Gagne's career numbers with the Twins and add 10 percent to them, and you get something along the lines of .275/.320/.425. Jimmy Rollins is a career .274/.330/.439 hitter.

He still doesn't exactly light up a stat sheet, but those adjusted numbers are a lot more palatable. And then you have his defense, which was excellent regardless of era. He never won a Gold Glove, as Alan Trammell and Tony Fernandez dominated the award in the 1980s, but Gagne is generally considered the best defensive shortstop in Twins history and Baseball Prospectus rates him as eight runs above average per 150 games in Minnesota (more advanced metrics aren't really available that far back).

Despite the speed and athleticism that gave him range defensively Gagne was a horrible base-stealer. Historically bad, in fact. He was 79-for-134 (59 percent) for the Twins and no one else in team history with 50 steals is under 60 percent. And he was even worse after leaving, stealing 29 bags while being thrown out 41 times, including going 10-for-27 in 1994. Seriously. Overall he was 108-for-204, which at 53 percent is the second-worst rate ever among players who attempted 200 steals, behind Lou Gehrig.

TOP 25 ALL-TIME MINNESOTA TWINS RANKS:
 
Triples             35      9th
Games             1140     11th
Steals              79     12th
Doubles            183     14th
Hits               844     16th
Runs               452     16th
Total Bases       1304     16th
Extra-Base Hits    287     17th
Times On Base     1060     24th

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2010-01-08T10:40:00.002-06:00

Top 40 Minnesota Twins: #34 Matt Lawton

MATTHEW LAWTON III | LF/CF/RF | 1995-2001 | CAREER STATS
 
   G       PA      AVG      OBP      SLG     OPS+    WARP     WS
 771     3150     .277     .379     .428     107     23.3     87

Drafted in the 13th round out of Mississippi Gulf Coast Community College just four months before the Twins' run to the World Series in 1991, Matt Lawton advanced slowly but surely up the minor-league ladder. After posting .400 on-base percentages in back-to-back seasons at Single-A and then batting .269/.361/.434 in 114 games at Double-A in 1995, Lawton made his major-league debut pinch-hitting for Pat Meares in a loss to the Tigers on September 5, 1995.

He struck out against Mike Christopher, but picked up his first hit against submarining southpaw Mike Myers the next day and ended up starting quite a bit down the stretch. Lawton hit .317/.414/.467 in 21 games as a 23-year-old and smacked his first homer against 245-game winner Dennis Martinez and the Indians on September 28, 1995, which turned out to be a key date in team history because Martinez hit Kirby Puckett with a pitch in the first inning and the Hall of Famer never played again.

Lawton began 1996 as the everyday right fielder, but was sent down to Triple-A after hitting just .205 in April. He returned in late June, but was sent back to Salt Lake with a .231 batting average in mid-July. After batting .297/.377/.481 in 53 total games at Triple-A, Lawton was called up again in early August and this time stayed for the rest of the year. He finished with a .258/.339/.365 hitting line in 79 games, batting .294 over the final two months of the season to earn the team's confidence heading into 1997.

With his days in the minors behind him for good, Lawton split time between all three outfield spots in 1997 and hit .248/.366/.415 in 142 games. It was a modest season even for a 25-year-old, but along with Paul Molitor and Chuck Knoblauch he was one of only three Twins regulars with an adjusted OPS+ above league average. As you might expect from a team with that little offense and a 5.02 ERA, the Twins finished 68-94 for their most losses since 1982.

The team continued to struggle in 1998, going 70-92, but Lawton had his first big year. Playing mostly right field and also filling in as the center fielder when Otis Nixon had his jaw broken by Felix Martinez, he batted .278/.387/.478 with 21 homers, 36 doubles, 86 walks, and 16 steals in 152 games. Lawton won team MVP honors and led the Twins in nearly every offensive category, including homers, RBIs, runs, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, walks, and total bases.

Lawton got off to a slow start in 1999 and was batting just .262/.345/.406 when he was hit in the face by a Dennys Reyes pitch on June 8. A fractured eye socket sent him to the disabled list for over a month. He returned in mid-July and continued to get on base at a good clip through the end of the year, but his power disappeared. Lawton hit five homers with a .406 slugging percentage prior to the injury, but had just two homers and a pitiful .299 slugging percentage after returning.

Lawton came back strong in 2000, bouncing back from what could have been a very serious injury to put together arguably his best season. He hit .305/.405/.460 with 13 homers, 44 doubles, 91 walks, and 23 steals in 156 games, making his first All-Star team and winning his second team MVP. The team continued to stink, winning just 69 games, but unlike several of the Twins' token "All-Stars" from that period of losing Lawton was actually somewhat deserving with a .330 first-half batting average.

That season showed Lawton at his absolute best--taking a ridiculous number of pitches, working long counts, drawing walks in bunches, lacing singles and doubles all over the Metrodome from that goofy batting stance, and stealing bases at an efficient rate. He did just about everything that a hitter could possibly do besides provide big-time power, and even batted .294 against left-handers and .326 with runners on base.

After eight straight losing seasons the Twins got off to a 14-3 start in 2001, and carried a 55-32 record and five-game division lead over the Indians into the All-Star break. After winning the first game of the second half the Twins promptly went in the tank, losing 13 of the next 17 to fall into a tie with Cleveland atop the AL Central. On July 30, with the division slipping away, the Twins traded Lawton to the Mets for veteran right-handed starter Rick Reed.

It was a controversial move at the time, in part because Reed was a 36-year-old former replacement player making $7 million and in part because Lawton was the best hitter on a team that was fairly short on offense to begin with. Lawton was hitting .293/.396/.439 at the time of the trade, while Reed was 8-6 with a 3.48 ERA in New York. After the deal Brian Buchanan and Dustan Mohr replaced Lawton in right field, Reed went 4-6 with a 5.19 ERA in 12 starts, and the Twins went 25-32 to fall out of contention.

It wasn't so much that picking up a good starting pitcher was a bad move (although certainly you could argue about Reed being the right guy), but rather that in order to get Reed the Twins had to take from an area that was far from a strength. That's typically not how contending teams bolster themselves for a stretch run and there was speculation that general manager Terry Ryan intended to swing a second deal for a hitter like Dmitri Young or Shannon Stewart to replace Lawton, but that fell through.

Reed went 15-7 with a 3.78 ERA in 2002 as the Twins made the playoffs for the first time since 1991, and then was a mess in 2003 thanks to back problems. Meanwhile, Lawton hit just .246/.352/.366 for the Mets in 2001 and was dealt to Cleveland for Roberto Alomar that winter. He spent three mediocre years there while struggling through shoulder injuries and then bounced around with four teams over his final two seasons while hitting .253/.353/.389 and being suspended 10 games for steroid use.

Lawton's strengths were drawing walks, hitting doubles, getting on base, and running efficiently, which are all skills that tend to be overlooked and have seemingly caused his Twins career to be underrated. He was very productive in Minnesota, putting together three very good years and another solid season before his 30th birthday, and his name is plastered all over the team leaderboards. Here's something that I wrote about Lawton back in 2003 that seems appropriate to quote now:

I always had a soft spot for "Matty Law" and I'm not sure why. I guess he was just a very solid all-around player who had a lot of nice moments as a Twin. Lawton and Brad Radke were sort of like the bridge from the Kirby Puckett/Chuck Knoblauch Twins to the current group.

And as any Twins fan who grew up in the 1990s can tell you, it was an awfully long bridge.

TOP 25 ALL-TIME MINNESOTA TWINS RANKS:
 
On-Base %         .379      5th
Steals              96      8th
Walks              408      9th
OPS               .807     17th
Times On Base     1195     17th
Doubles            163     18th
Runs               423     19th
RBIs               384     20th
Extra-Base Hits    248     20th
Total Bases       1144     23rd
Homers              72     24th
Adjusted OPS+      107     24th
Hits               739     25th

Once you're done here, check out my NBCSports.com blog and Twitter updates.

2010-01-04T00:05:00.000-06:00

Old Man, Birthday Boy

My apologies for the lack of content here over the past two weeks, but I'm still very busy putting together the annual Rotoworld baseball magazine, which is due at the printer next week. Plus, the Twins haven't done a whole lot worth writing about recently, so you haven't really missed much. I mostly just wanted to check in so that everyone knows I'm still alive. In fact, yesterday was my 27th birthday. I celebrated by waking up early for absolutely no reason and then covering meaningless NFL games for Rotoworld.

Life in the fast lane, no doubt. Oh, and here's a fun fact: I was 19 years old when this blog launched in August of 2002. I'm not sure whether doing this for eight years is more commendable or mockable, but either way it's been a lot of fun and I'll get back to pumping out new stuff once the Twins do something notable or we put the magazine to bed, whichever comes first. In the meantime, here's a picture of two of my birthday gifts that perfectly sums up how people think of me when shopping:

Not sure why I picked a light switch for the background, but surely there's some artistic explanation that scholars will debate when studying my photography centuries from now.

Once you're done here, check out my NBCSports.com blog and Twitter updates.

2009-12-23T00:05:00.001-06:00

Happy Festivus

In honor of Festivus (and the rapidly approaching deadline for Rotoworld's annual baseball magazine) my blogging will be lighter than usual for a little while unless the Twins make a significant move. In the meantime, please take a moment to learn more about my favorite holiday ...

Once you're done here, check out my NBCSports.com blog and Twitter updates.

2009-12-21T00:02:00.000-06:00

Twins Notes: Atkins, Feliz, Humber, Blyleven, and Game 163

Not much going on worth writing about in Twins land right now, but here are a few tidbits ...

When it comes to free agents sometimes being a Twins fan means rooting for other teams to save them from themselves, which is why Garrett Atkins and Pedro Feliz signing last week qualifies as very good news. Atkins and Feliz have been linked to the Twins at various points this offseason, but neither would've been a particularly positive addition or a sound investment. Atkins has a horrible glove with an overrated bat and Feliz has a good glove with a horrible bat, yet they'll each make $5 million in 2010.

Maybe the Rockies will save the Twins from themselves with Robb Quinlan.

Philip Humber twice cleared waivers after the Twins dropped him from the 40-man roster during the season and now he's left the organization, inking a minor-league contract with the Royals. He was the third overall pick in the 2004 draft and came to the Twins in the four-player package for Johan Santana, but hasn't been the same since undergoing Tommy John elbow surgery in 2005 and showed nothing since the trade to suggest that he can be a useful major leaguer.

Humber coughed up 14 runs in 21 innings for the Twins, allowing opponents to bat .329/.430/.518, and posted a 4.96 ERA in 254 innings at Rochester. It wouldn't be surprising to see Humber pitch in the big leagues again and maybe he can even find a niche as a long reliever, but as a 27-year-old who cleared waivers twice in the past six months and could manage only a minor-league deal from one of MLB's worst teams as a free agent it's safe to say that any pretense of upside has vanished. Oh well.

Rich Lederer of Baseball Analysts has put together his annual plea to Hall of Fame voters regarding Bert Blyleven deserving induction. I'm in total agreement with Lederer and have written similar pleas in the past, but eventually stopped doing so because a) the Hall of Fame and other honors chosen by the Baseball Writers Association of America ceased meaning much to me, and b) Blyleven doesn't actually buy into the rationale for his enshrinement, constantly relying on wins to evaluate every pitcher but him.

I'll marry and dump Official Fantasy Girl of AG.com Keeley Hazell before the Twins out-bid 29 teams for a 21-year-old Cuban defector who throws in the mid-90s, but at least it gives Joe Christensen of the Minneapolis Star Tribune something to write about.

Joe Posnanski of Sports Illustrated selected the one-game playoff between the Twins and Tigers as the best regular-season game of the decade:

The beautiful thing about baseball is a great game doesn't necessarily have to be a well-played game. The Twins-Tigers tiebreaker to decide the AL Central had blunders, errors, pickoffs and all sorts of confusion. But it was loaded with drama. The Tigers had a lead going into the bottom of the 10th inning. The Twins tied it up and had a chance to win, but Alexi Casilla was thrown out at the plate by Ryan Raburn. The Tigers had the bases loaded in the 12th but could not score. The Twins scored in the bottom of the 12th to win 6-5. Sometimes sloppy, sometimes brilliant, always exciting--that's baseball at its best.

Naturally it's hard for me to disagree, although if you don't mind overlooking who actually won the game the previous year's tiebreaker between the Twins and White Sox wasn't too shabby either.

Once you're done here, check out my NBCSports.com blog and Twitter updates.

2009-12-18T00:04:00.000-06:00

Link-O-Rama

Tony Oliva never played in the Metrodome, but still managed to provide the last Twins memory there.

Last week the Washington Post ran the greatest newspaper correction of all time.

For the past couple weeks Poker After Dark has featured a high-stakes, six-handed cash game with Phil Ivey, Tom Dwan, Phil Hellmuth, Daniel Negreanu, Patrick Antonius, and Gus Hansen. Naturally the action and banter have been highly entertaining, but my favorite part is that every few rounds four or five of them agree to put $100,000 in blind and run the hand as basically a multi-way coin flip for half a million dollars. All of which produced this amazing quote from Ivey after he lost several in a row:

I like it when I lose so much money I can barely breathe. That's the feeling I go for. I'm addicted to that feeling.

They ought to frame that quote and hang it outside the main of entrance every casino in Las Vegas.

And speaking of poker, gambling legend Billy Baxter shared a ton of great stories while appearing on "The Scoop" with Diego Cordovez and Adam Schoenfeld. During the multi-part interview they noted that Baxter was profiled by Sports Illustrated back in 1984 and thanks to the power of the interwebs you can read the lengthy and well-done piece by writer John Underwood. Tigers star and should-be Hall of Fame shortstop Alan Trammell was on the cover.

Unlike these poor guys, I'd have a far better shot of being fired for not playing fantasy football.

David Letterman uses Twitter for the first (and perhaps last) time:

My initial reaction to Twitter wasn't all that different, but after coming late to the party I'm now obsessed.

If any AG.com readers are looking for gift ideas, I'd like these for Hanukkah.

Rangers reliever C.J. Wilson apparently isn't a huge fan of Diamondbacks catcher Chris Snyder.

For whatever reason recently I've used Mila Kunis when needing to reference an attractive woman in various articles, so this reminder of Marisa Miller's utility in such situations is very useful.

My viewership of Everybody Loves Raymond was sporadic at best, but Ray Romano's new show on TNT has definitely held my interest through two episodes and Men of a Certain Age is totally different than the long-running sitcom. Plus, any show with Andre Braugher is worth checking out.

Sadly, after two seasons on HBO and 22 glorious episodes Flight of the Conchords is no more.

After attending his first winter meetings my Circling the Bases blogmate Craig Calcaterra described the scene as "Amalie Benjamin and a thousand dudes." What he didn't say is how sexy those dudes were. Not pictured, of course, is my fatass, which is why I'm in any sort of position to do the goofing.

Dan LeBatard was a tremendous guest on Bill Simmons' podcast and they touched on tons of good topics under the pretense of discussing ESPN's latest documentary about University of Miami football.

After watching Michael K. Williams do mostly nothing in Gone Baby Gone, this video of 100 quotes from The Wire restored my faith in humanity:

Not only does the video include my favorite quote ("money ain't got no owners, only spenders"), there's a beautiful little Clay Davis run near the end.

The man behind the world's best baseball website is now a member of the BBWAA.

Peter Gammons' touching farewell column after 20 years at ESPN was a reminder of why he's such an amazing figure in baseball history, but I'll forever be most grateful to him for turning me on to Susan Tedeschi. Earlier this year Gammons e-mailed me out of the blue to say that he enjoyed my Rotoworld columns, and the list of writers to whom he's reached out like that seems never-ending. Hall of Fame baseball writer and maybe an even better person.

Speaking of farewells Matt Thomas is leaving KSTP radio for a similar job in his native Houston. Not only was Thomas good on the air leading up to nightly Twins games, he was nice enough to look past my constant bashing of radio-mates Jim Souhan and Patrick Reusse to invite me to his poker game.

There are a lot to choose from, but this is one of my favorite end-of-the-decade lists: "40 Things That Were Popular at the Beginning of the 2000s." We've come a long way from boybands and trucker hats.

Some of the highlights from my NBCSports.com blogging this week:

- Who's better: Halladay or Lee?
- White Sox look just about set after Pierre trade
- Hawkins schmoozes his way to $7.5 million
- McCann is the last "Baby Brave" standing
- Are the Red Sox gearing up for Gonzalez?
- Forget the veterans: Pittsburgh should hand first base to Clement
- Tigers may give Coke chance to join rotation
- Do Yankees really think Miranda can be the DH?
- Arizona looking for closer, but reunion with Valverde too costly
- Mets close to signing Japanese reliever Igarashi

Finally, because YouTube unfortunately doesn't have much in actual Van Morrison stuff this week's AG.com-approved music video is a cappella group Clef Hangers doing a live version of "Crazy Love":

Once you're done here, check out my NBCSports.com blog and Twitter updates.

2009-12-17T00:05:00.004-06:00

New System For Comments

I've used "Haloscan" to host the comments section here for years, but this week I got an e-mail saying that they were shutting the service down at the end of the month. They offered to transfer my account to another service called "Echo," so I'm giving that a try. I realize this is incredibly boring and you'd much rather read something about the Twins, but I'd appreciate the help from anyone willing to check out the new comments setup and give me their thoughts on how it looks, performs, and works. Thanks.

Oh, and I'll be back tomorrow with a nice, long Link-O-Rama.

UPDATE: Early reviews are mostly favorable, but it looks like newer comments are appearing and then disappearing at random. Suffice it to say that's a problem, so please keep testing it out and giving me feedback, good or bad.

Once you're done here, check out my NBCSports.com blog and Twitter updates.

2009-12-16T02:31:00.003-06:00

Now That BBWAA is Enlightened, Can We Get a Redo On 2005?

Since a large portion of the Baseball Writers Association of America seems to be beyond their previous over-reliance on win-loss records to evaluate the performances of starting pitchers, can we get a good old-fashioned mulligan on the American League Cy Young vote from 2005?

Bartolo Colon, who won the award that season, had a 3.48 ERA, 157-to-43 strikeout-to-walk ratio, and .244 opponents' batting average in 223 innings.

Johan Santana, who did not win the award that season, had a 2.87 ERA, 238-to-45 strikeout-to-walk ratio, and .210 opponents' batting average in 232 innings.

Santana was clearly superior in just about every possible way, throwing more innings than Colon with an ERA that was 20 percent lower, racking up 50 percent more strikeouts with the same number of walks, and being 15 percent harder to hit. And if you want to delve into some deeper stats, Santana had a 2.80 FIP compared to Colon at 3.75. So how did Colon not only win the award, but win the award with 15 more first-place votes than Santana in a pool of 28 voters?

Colon was 21-8.
Santana was 16-7.

They may not care so much about that now, but the BBWAA were sure obsessed with win-loss records four years ago. The voters saw those 21 wins and ignored everything else, including the fact that Colon pitched for a 95-win team that provided him with 5.6 runs of support per nine innings. Santana pitched for an 83-win team that gave him 4.4 runs of support per nine innings. Colon received 30 percent more run support than Santana overall, including an amazing 10 or more runs eight times in 33 starts.

So yes, the BBWAA deserves credit for recently changing their stance and correctly rewarding the best pitcher in each league with the award that's supposed to go to the best pitcher in each league even if they didn't have the best win-loss record. With that said, Zack Greinke and Tim Lincecum are lucky that they weren't trying to win the award in 2005 and it remains to be seen if the voters would have been willing to look beyond an otherwise inferior 20-game winner like Colon had there been one this year.

* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *
We just completed the third season of Gleeman World 2 in WhatIfSports.com's great Hardball Dynasty game and there's one franchise opening. Hardball Dynasty is not a fantasy baseball game, but rather a simulation of running a fictional MLB organization from rookie-ball to the majors. It's incredibly detailed and time-consuming with a steep learning curve, so first and foremost we're looking for an owner who has played Hardball Dynasty in the past, although anyone is free to express interest in the open spot.

Once you're done here, check out my NBCSports.com blog and Twitter updates.

2009-12-14T00:06:00.000-06:00

Picking Through The Non-Tenders

Each offseason the deadline to tender arbitration offers to eligible players leads to a secondary wave of talent hitting the open market, as teams choose to cut bait on dozens of pre-free agency players rather than commit to giving them raises for the next season. In the Twins' case they opted not to tender Boof Bonser a contract, but instead of simply releasing him into free agency they traded him to the Red Sox for low-level pitching prospect Chris Province and then Boston signed him to a one-year deal.

Jesse Crain was the Twins' other non-tender candidate after pitching his way back to Triple-A by giving up 17 runs in 17.2 innings through mid-June. Crain had a 2.91 ERA in 30 innings after returning from Rochester, but seemed to be on the chopping block because he's due for a raise from his $1.7 million salary. Cutting him loose and handing the job to Anthony Slama or Robert Delaney would've freed up $2 million for the Twins to spend elsewhere, but instead they tendered Crain a contract for 2010.

While the Twins ultimately chose to retain Crain for what will probably be around $2.5 million in 2010, a total of 39 players were shed from rosters prior to Saturday's midnight deadline. Most aren't particularly good fits in Minnesota--or all that valuable, in general--but a handful of names struck me as potentially useful for the Twins in 2010 as alternatives to the initial crop of free agents. You know, assuming that the Twins intend to actually sign someone this offseason.

Kelly Johnson: After back-to-back strong seasons as Atlanta's everyday second baseman Johnson hit just .224/.303/.389, missed time with a wrist injury, and lost the job to Martin Prado. As a 27-year-old who hit .282/.362/.451 in 1,222 plate appearances between 2007 and 2008 he's seemingly a solid bet to bounce back offensively, but Ultimate Zone Rating pegs Johnson as 7.4 runs below average per 150 games defensively. His pre-2009 bat is good enough to look past the glove or move him to third base.

Jonny Gomes: Cincinnati misguidedly cut Gomes loose despite 20 homers and a .267/.338/.541 mark in 314 plate appearances and he's unlikely to find a starting gig because of huge strikeout totals and a tendency to go into prolonged slumps versus right-handed pitching. For all his flaws a .274/.369/.517 career line against left-handed pitching would make Gomes an ideal platoon partner for Jason Kubel and even his .224/.311/.448 line against righties would make him a viable alternative to Delmon Young.

Ryan Garko: Similar to Gomes in that he's mediocre against righties and crushes lefties, except Garko doesn't strike out as much and has little experience in the outfield. He's a career .279/.351/.441 hitter overall, which would be a clear upgrade over Young as an everyday player, and his .313/.392/.495 mark against lefties would look very good in a platoon with Kubel. San Francisco traded a decent prospect to Cleveland to get Garko at midseason only to drop him before a raise to around $2 million was due.

Brian Bass: Just kidding.

Ryan Langerhans: Now that Carlos Gomez is in Milwaukee the Twins need a fourth outfielder capable of playing center field and their primary in-house option is Jason Pridie, so they should be looking for someone like Langerhans. He strikes out a lot and won't hit for good batting averages, but Langerhans draws walks, has 15-homer pop, and plays fantastic defense in either corner spot with decent range in center. Similar non-tendered backup options include Jeremy Reed and Brian Anderson.

Gabe Gross: If the Twins want a fourth outfielder to push Young for starts and hold his own if thrust into the lineup due to injury, Gross is a superior option than guys like Langerhans, Anderson, or Reed. He's helpless against lefties, but has hit .251/.346/.414 against righties and UZR grades him as excellent in the corners and above average in center. Not really the Twins' type of player because his defensive reputation doesn't match the stats and lots of his value comes from walks, but Gross is a nice backup.

Once you're done here, check out my NBCSports.com blog and Twitter updates.

2009-12-11T00:15:00.002-06:00

Top 40 Minnesota Twins: #35 Steve Braun

STEPHEN RUSSELL BRAUN | 1B/2B/SS/3B/LF | 1971-1976 | CAREER STATS
 
   G       PA      AVG      OBP      SLG     OPS+    WARP     WS
 751     2830     .284     .376     .381     116     15.6     86

Taken in the 10th round of the 1966 draft out of a New Jersey high school, Steve Braun came up with the 1971 team that went 74-86 after the Twins won back-to-back division titles in 1969 and 1970. The poor record that year wasn't Braun's fault, as he played all over the infield while hitting .254/.350/.344 in 128 games. That may not look like an impressive hitting line, even from a 23-year-old rookie, but the AL as a whole batted a measly .247/.317/.364 in 1971 (compared to .267/.336/.428 this season).

Braun's entire time with the Twins actually came in a very low-scoring era, which is part of the reason why he's one of the more underrated players in team history. His raw numbers show a guy who got on base extremely well (.376 on-base percentage), but had almost no power (.381 slugging percentage). However, if you adjust his performance to account for the pitcher-friendly era that he played in, Braun suddenly looks like an offensive force.

Looking at adjusted OPS+ while in Minnesota, Braun's mark of 116 ranks ahead of Jason Kubel (114) and Michael Cuddyer (110) among current Twins, plus past hitters like Corey Koskie (115), Chuck Knoblauch (114), Brian Harper (110), Tom Brunansky (109), Matt Lawton (107), David Ortiz (107), A.J. Pierzynski (105), Torii Hunter (104), and Roy Smalley (104). Those are some of the best hitters in team history and Braun was arguably more effective offensively with the Twins than all of them.

He certainly wasn't in the elite class of hitters, but Braun was safely in the "very good" group. While with the Twins his .376 OBP was 15 percent above the AL mark of .328 and his .381 slugging percentage was actually slightly above average as well. Throughout the five decades of Twins history, only seven players have more plate appearances and a higher OPS+ than Braun. Interestingly, if you adjust their respective totals with the Twins to today's offensive levels, Braun and Knoblauch are nearly identical:

                AVG      OBP      SLG      OPS     OPS+
Braun          .297     .382     .435     .817     116 
Knoblauch      .304     .378     .423     .801     114

Knoblauch played longer with the Twins and was a more valuable all-around player, but purely in terms of hitting Braun was a slower, left-handed version of Knoblauch. And while he wasn't nearly as good as Knoblauch defensively, Braun's ability to play multiple positions gave him value. During six years with the Twins he saw significant action at second base, third base, shortstop, and left field, and also got a little time at first base and right field.

If you don't buy a comparison to Knoblauch, think of Braun instead as the type of player Denny Hocking could have been if he hit like Lawton instead of like Lawton's sister. Braun was remarkably consistent after his solid rookie season, hitting above .280 while getting on base at least 36 percent of the time in each of the next five years. His best season came in 1975, when Braun batted .302/.389/.428 for the eighth-best OBP in the league and a 130 OPS+

Adjusting those 1975 numbers to today's scoring environment spits out something like .315/.390/.480, which is pretty close to Joe Mauer's career .327/.408/.483 mark. Braun served as the Twins' primary third baseman in 1971, 1972, and 1973, and was their main left fielder in 1974 and 1975. He was the team's regular designated hitter in 1976 and also saw action at third base and left field while batting .288/.384/.353 to once again rank among the league leaders in on-base percentage.

In November of 1976 the upstart Seattle Mariners plucked Braun off the Twins' roster in the expansion draft, ending his time in Minnesota after six very productive seasons. After a disappointing stint with the Mariners he was traded to the Royals for Jim Colborn in June of 1978, after Colborn won 18 games with a 3.62 ERA in 1977. That move signaled the end of Braun's days as an everyday player, and was the beginning of his time as one of Whitey Herzog's bench bats.

Herzog was Kansas City's manager when Braun arrived at midseason, and took a liking to him when he hit .263/.380/.350 in 64 games and tied a Royals record by reaching base 11 straight times. Braun gave Herzog another productive season as a part-time player in 1979, and when Herzog moved on to the Cardinals he brought Braun in as a free agent. Braun served as a super-sub and pinch-hitter for the next five seasons, hitting .258/.382/.348 while rarely starting a game.

He was a key contributor on two pennant winners, including the 1982 World Series champs, but retired two seasons before the Cardinals met up with the Twins in the 1987 World Series. Braun has stayed in baseball after retiring, serving as a minor-league hitting coach with the Cardinals, Yankees, and Red Sox. He currently sells "hitting clinics, summer camps, and baseball trips" through a company called Steve Braun Baseball, which offers to help you "train like a pro with a pro!"

Braun is perhaps the least-known player in this countdown and his inclusion may raise eyebrows, but he absolutely belongs. Six seasons and nearly 3,000 plate appearances of consistently outstanding top-of-the-order hitting, plus versatile defense, made him an impact player even if it wasn't apparent to everyone at the time. Had he played today, rather than 30 years ago, Braun's power would appear a lot more acceptable and his ability to get on base would be more properly appreciated.

TOP 25 ALL-TIME MINNESOTA TWINS RANKS:
 
On-Base %         .376      6th
Walks              356     14th
Adjusted OPS+      116     14th
Batting Average   .284     15th
Times On Base     1059     25th

Once you're done here, check out my NBCSports.com blog and Twitter updates.

2009-12-10T00:05:00.006-06:00

Twins Notes: DeRosa, Kouzmanoff, Bonser, and Hawkins

LaVelle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star Tribune reports that the Twins haven't been in contact with Orlando Hudson's agent, which rules out one of my favorite potential targets, and they've also not really been linked to Felipe Lopez or Adrian Beltre. Instead they're mostly said to be pursuing Mark DeRosa or Kevin Kouzmanoff. Last month DeRosa was part of my article on realistic free agent options for third base, but if reports that he's seeking a three-year deal prove accurate the Twins should stay away.

It sounds like the Twins offered Glen Perkins for Kouzmanoff, but the Padres wanted a second player to sweeten the deal. I'm not a big Kouzmanoff fan because he's an extreme free-swinger whose glove is overrated due to a low error total this year, but calling the majors' most pitcher-friendly ballpark home makes him a better hitter than his modest raw numbers suggest. He's batted .285/.327/.474 away from home and does play solid defense, which is probably worth more than just Perkins at this point.

In order to clear a spot on the 40-man roster for Carl Pavano following his arbitration acceptance the Twins designated Boof Bonser for assignment. Bonser pitched his way out of the rotation in 2008 and then missed all of this year following shoulder surgery, but would have been in line for a small raise via arbitration. Rather than risk having to pay Bonser about $1 million after arbitration, the Twins reportedly offered him a one-year deal for close to the minimum salary and then cut him loose when he declined.

There's still a chance that the Twins could work out a trade for Bonser, but if not they'll end up simply releasing him this weekend. Bonser is a 28-year-old with a 5.12 career ERA coming off major surgery, so it's tough to blame the Twins too much for cutting bat. With that said, after moving to the bullpen and prior to the injury he showed some potential as a reliever, posting a 55-to-16 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 52 innings. They could have made room for Pavano and kept Bonser around by cutting Bobby Keppel.

UPDATE: Bonser has been traded to the Red Sox for a player to be named later or cash.

My blogmate Craig Calcaterra broke the news that Rich Harden is signing with Texas, so he can be crossed off the Twins' list now (if he was ever on it). Harden will reportedly get $7.5 million for 2010 and the Rangers will have an $11.5 million option for 2011, which is an excellent deal for Texas if you agree with me that the Twins did well to bring back Pavano for what will likely be about $7 million. Harden has significantly more upside than Pavano with a similar injury history.

On the other hand, I'll happily take Pavano for one year and around $7 million over Randy Wolf for three years and $30 million, which is what he got from the Brewers yesterday. Pavano tossed 199.1 innings with a 4.17 xFIP this season, while Wolf had a 4.28 xFIP in 214.1 innings. Pavano missed most of 2008 while Wolf logged 190 innings with a 4.49 xFIP, but in terms of staying healthy Wolf failed to pitch even 150 innings in any year from 2004-2007 due to assorted arm problems and they're both born in 1976.

BizOfBaseball.com's Maury Brown reports that all but two of the 30 major-league teams use some level of sabermetric, analytical analysis within the front office. Brown didn't name names, but the Twins are almost certainly one of them. Less than a year ago assistant general manager Rob Antony told me that the Twins "do not have a department devoted to statistical analysis" or employ those type of tools.

Brad Thomas was one of the Twins' best pitching prospects about a decade ago, going 10-3 with a 1.96 ERA at Double-A in 2001 while also pitching in the Futures Game and making his MLB debut. He was awful in the majors, allowing 26 runs in 23.2 innings spread over various brief stints in Minnesota, and has spent the past five years pitching in Japan and Korea. All of which is suddenly relevant again because Thomas has signed with the Tigers and will compete for a bullpen job in spring training.

Speaking of former Twins, yesterday LaTroy Hawkins inked a two-year, $7.5 million contract with the Brewers. Since leaving Minnesota six seasons ago Hawkins has a 3.35 ERA in 379 innings, including just one year with an ERA not in the 2.00s or 3.00s. And while he was one of the worst starting pitchers of all time early in his 15-year career, Hawkins has a 3.29 ERA in 655 relief appearances.

This morning's Rule 5 draft more or less marks the end of the winter meetings, but we'll be covering any remaining action over at Circling the Bases and you can also follow along via my Twitter page.