October 9, 2015

Who will the Twins purge from the 40-man roster this offseason?

Chris Herrmann Twins

At the beginning of each offseason every team goes through the ritual housecleaning of shedding players from the 40-man roster to prepare for a winter of adding new players and protecting new prospects. Despite improving from one of MLB's worst teams to a Wild Card contender the Twins have no shortage of marginal big leaguers clinging to 40-man spots, so here's my breakdown of the players most likely to be shed and where they stand (in alphabetical order):

(Note: Free agents Torii Hunter, Mike Pelfrey, Brian Duensing, Blaine Boyer, and Neal Cotts are automatically removed from the 40-man roster.)

A.J. Achter: Called up as a late-season bullpen reinforcement in each of the past two seasons, Achter has allowed 17 runs in 24 innings for the Twins. His numbers at Triple-A are much better, including a 2.57 ERA and 21 saves in 99 appearances, but there's nothing impressive about his 136/51 K/BB ratio in 144 innings there and Achter's fastball tops out in the low-90s. He could find a niche as a middle reliever, but at age 27 he doesn't possess much upside beyond that.

Logan Darnell: After making four starts and three relief appearances for the Twins last season Darnell didn't pitch in the majors this year, going on the disabled list with pneumonia following a September call-up. Darnell was used primarily as a reliever at Triple-A, posting a 66/25 K/BB ratio in 78 innings. He works in the high-80s with his fastball and combines mediocre strikeout rates with poor control, so it's tough to see the 26-year-old lefty as more than a middle reliever.

Casey Fien: Arbitration eligible and due a raise to around $2.5 million, Fien could be expendable if the Twins get serious about upgrading the bullpen. He has a lifetime 3.82 ERA, including a 3.55 ERA and 41/8 K/BB ratio in 63 innings this season, but Fien is a low-strikeout 32-year-old and fits best in middle relief. They have bigger issues to address and a $2.5 million price tag isn't much, but the Twins could use more youth, velocity, and upside in Fien's role.

Eric Fryer: Re-added to the 40-man roster on September 1 because the Twins wanted a third catcher around once rosters expanded, Fryer has passed through waivers unclaimed before and figures to do so again. At age 30 he's hit .243/.329/.336 in 65 games as a major leaguer and .237/.328/.328 in 271 games at Triple-A. Organizations need players like Fryer around because catching is difficult to acquire midseason, but there's no need to have him on the 40-man.

Chris Herrmann: For long stretches in each of the past three seasons the Twins have gone with Herrmann as their backup catcher and he's hit .181/.249/.280 in 142 games. Among all players with at least 300 plate appearances for the Twins since 1985 his .529 OPS ranks second-worst, ahead of only his backup-catching predecessor Drew Butera at .494. And he hasn't been much better in the minors, hitting .261/.336/.391 in 152 games at Triple-A.

Tommy Milone: In a season that included a month-long demotion to Triple-A and multiple arm injuries Milone still ranked among the Twins' better starters with a 3.92 ERA and 91/36 K/BB ratio in 129 innings. His track record as a solid back-of-the-rotation starter is well established by 619 innings of a 3.97 ERA, but the question is whether the Twins want to pay him around $5 million via arbitration for 2016 when they seemingly have too many mediocre veteran starters as is.

Ricky Nolasco: He's owed $25 million for the next two seasons and the Twins can't escape that commitment, but there are two ways in which they could remove Nolasco from the 40-man roster to make use of his spot. One is to simply get rid of him via trade or release, both of which would require eating the remaining contract. The other is to let him pass through waivers unclaimed and outright him to Triple-A sans 40-man spot. Unlikely, but an option if space gets tight.

Eduardo Nunez: After five seasons as a below-average hitter Nunez finally produced a little bit, hitting .282/.327/.431 in a bench role. In two years with the Twins he's started 45 and 48 games while getting 213 and 204 plate appearances. Keeping him around in a similar role makes sense, but with Nunez due for a raise to around $2 million via arbitration it's possible the Twins will want to fill that bench spot with either a more capable defensive shortstop or a more potent bat.

Ryan O'Rourke: Added to the 40-man roster and called up in July to fill a left-handed specialist role, O'Rourke fared well initially before going through a rough patch and then mostly collected dust down the stretch. He held lefties to a .171 batting average for the Twins after dominating them to an incredible degree in the minors, so there's little doubt O'Rourke can fill the specialist role, but control problems and struggles versus righties really limit his potential usage.

Josmil Pinto: Pinto once looked like a long-term building block as a catcher/designated hitter, but he struggled in 57 games for the Twins in 2014 and spent all of 2015 at Triple-A having his season wrecked by concussions. When healthy Pinto is a good right-handed hitter with power and plate discipline whose defensive chops behind the plate are iffy. He's still just 26 years old, but catching regularly may be out of the question and the Twins have no shortage of DH options.

Ryan Pressly: Sidelined for the final three months of the year by a lat muscle injury, Pressly's place in the Twins' plans depends on his health and a belief that his 3.46 career ERA tells a more accurate story than his 85/47 K/BB ratio in 133 innings. He's a perfectly solid middle reliever and throws harder than most of the Twins' incumbent options for that role, but the 27-year-old former Rule 5 pick hasn't found a way to generate strikeouts and has iffy control.

Shane Robinson: After nine years in the Cardinals organization Robinson signed with the Twins as a minor-league free agent, won a spot on the Opening Day roster, and received a career-high 48 starts and 198 plate appearances. He hit just .250/.299/.322, which is in line with his modest track record. Robinson is a good defender with plus speed, but he doesn't hit enough to be more than a fifth outfielder and "fifth outfielder" is no longer even a job on many teams.

Aaron Thompson: For six weeks or so Thompson emerged as Paul Molitor's go-to lefty setup man and got the Twins through a bunch of key innings unscathed, but his deal with the devil ran out and he was demoted to Triple-A in July. He was nothing special there and did not receive a September call-up, finishing the season with a 5.01 ERA and 17/11 K/BB ratio in 32 innings. At age 28 there's nothing in his track to suggest Thompson is more than a replacement-level arm.

This week's blog content is sponsored by Harry's Razors, where you can get discounted razors and shaving supplies delivered to your door by entering in the code "gleeman" at Harrys.com.

July 16, 2015

Reviewing the Twins’ first half: Pitchers

Glen Perkins Twins

Twins pitching was abysmal from 2011-2014, ranking second-worst in ERA and worst in strikeouts among 30 teams. This year they're 15th in ERA, putting them on pace to allow 145 fewer runs per 162 games. However, they're still dead last in strikeouts and have improved to just 26th in xFIP. Vastly improved defense has played a big part, but luck has been a factor too. Before the second half gets underway here's a pitcher-by-pitcher look at the individual performances ...

Phil Hughes: .287/.303/.495 in 486 plate appearances

Last season Phil Hughes logged a career-high 210 innings and posted the best strikeout-to-walk ratio in the history of baseball. This year the durability and excellent control remain, but Hughes' strikeout rate has plummeted and his home run rate has skyrocketed. On a per-plate appearance basis his strikeouts are down 36 percent and he's served up a league-high 22 homers in 18 starts after allowing a total of 16 homers in 32 starts last season.

Hughes' fastball velocity is down 1.5 miles per hour and hitters have teed off on it, adjusting to his strike-throwing machine approach and/or simply taking advantage of a lesser version of the pitch. Whatever the case, he's gone from No. 1 starter to innings-eating mid-rotation starter, which was the fear when the Twins reacted to Hughes' career-year by handing him a three-year, $42 million extension with two seasons remaining on his original deal.

Kyle Gibson: .241/.305/.371 in 468 plate appearances

Nothing has really changed within Kyle Gibson's secondary numbers compared to last year, but his ERA has improved from 4.47 to 2.85 and he's avoided the blowups that plagued him every few turns in the rotation. His strikeout rate (16 percent vs. 14 percent), walk rate (8 percent in both years), and ground-ball rate (54 percent in both years) are all remarkably similar to last season and he's already given up almost as many homers (11) in 18 starts as he did (12) in 32 starts.

The big change is opponents hitting .165 with runners in scoring position compared to .277 last year, which explains avoiding big innings. At some point those numbers are going to normalize and when they do Gibson looks more like a 3.85 ERA starter than a 2.85 ERA starter, but nothing says his luck has to run out immediately and a 3.85 ERA starter is still plenty valuable. He's been the best starter on a team that handed out $170 million to three free agent starters since 2014.

Mike Pelfrey: .293/.357/.398 in 424 plate appearances

Unhappy about being moved to the bullpen during spring training, Mike Pelfrey got his wish and remained in the rotation following Ervin Santana's suspension. He fared absurdly well early on despite no changes to his poor strikeout and walk rates, constantly getting himself into jams and then wriggling out of trouble. Eventually that caught up to Pelfrey, who finished the first half by allowing 27 runs in his final 32 innings to take his ERA from 2.28 to 4.00 in six starts.

There's been lots of talk about pitching coach Neil Allen convincing Pelfrey to rely on off-speed pitches more, but that storyline loses a little steam when you consider his 4.41 xFIP is no different than his 4.42 xFIP for the Mets from 2008-2012 and his 4.5 strikeouts per nine innings are worse than his 5.0 mark during that span. Pelfrey has taken a somewhat different approach to pitching, but the results ended up in the same mediocre place once the early good fortunate vanished.

Trevor May: .286/.323/.428 in 364 plate appearances

Called up one week into the season to replace the injured Ricky Nolasco in the rotation, Trevor May led Twins starters in fastball velocity, strikeout rate, and xFIP. So naturally he was the starter moved to the bullpen when Santana returned from suspension. May took the demotion in stride, finishing the first half with four scoreless relief innings, but given his performance, raw stuff, and long-term upside the 25-year-old right-hander deserves to be in the rotation.

May was a mess in his first few starts as a rookie, but in his last 25 games dating back to August he's thrown 121 innings with 113 strikeouts and 27 walks. He still has plenty to work on, but May has seemingly solved his control problems in the minors without sacrificing velocity or strikeouts and only needs more patience from the Twins to establish himself as a solid mid-rotation starter three years after they acquired him from the Phillies for Ben Revere.

Tommy Milone: .243/.304/.382 in 276 plate appearances

When the Twins acquired Tommy Milone from the A's in exchange for Sam Fuld last July he was an established mid-rotation starter with a 3.83 ERA in nearly 500 career innings. They never saw that pitcher, as Milone allowed 21 runs in 22 innings before being shut down with a benign tumor in his neck that required surgery. He came into this season with a clean bill of health and secured a spot in the rotation, but was demoted to Triple-A in late April.

Milone toyed with Triple-A hitters, going 4-0 with a 0.70 ERA and 47/3 K/BB ratio in five starts before the Twins brought him back to replace the injured Nolasco. He predictably hasn't been able to continue racking up strikeouts since returning, but Milone posted a 1.84 ERA and 33/12 K/BB ratio in 44 innings during his final seven starts. He'll come back down to earth at some point, but Milone has been out-performing his modest raw stuff for five seasons now. He's a solid pitcher.

J.R. Graham: .265/.324/.445 in 171 plate appearances

J.R. Graham has been an ideal Rule 5 pick, showing long-term upside with a mid-90s fastball and proving useful in the short term when spotted in low-leverage situations. Sixteen pitchers have 10 or more innings for the Twins this year and Graham is the only one with an average fastball above 95 mph. Home runs have been an issue and Graham's command comes and goes, but remove one disastrous May 14 outing from his season totals and he has a 1.85 ERA in 39 innings.

Blaine Boyer: .262/.315/.416 in 164 plate appearances

Who leads the AL in relief appearances? Blaine Boyer, obviously. He came into this season as a 33-year-old journeyman with a 4.63 career ERA and his current secondary numbers are actually worse than his career marks, including just 18 strikeouts in 39 innings. And yet Boyer has a 2.75 ERA while spending much of the season as the Twins' primary setup man, refusing to implode. It hasn't been all smoke and mirrors, but it's been a lot of smoke and mirrors.

Ricky Nolasco: .324/.369/.441 in 149 plate appearances

For the second straight season Ricky Nolasco has been injured and ineffective. This time he made just seven starts, going on the disabled list with an elbow injury in April and an ankle injury in June. After a month of unsuccessful rehab Nolasco underwent ankle surgery that seems likely to end his season, so he'll have a 5.40 ERA in 192 innings halfway through a four-year, $49 million contract. What a disaster.

Glen Perkins: .188/.217/.246 in 143 plate appearances

Already one of the three best closers in Twins history, Glen Perkins set a new team record by converting 28-of-28 save chances in the first half. He also had a 1.21 ERA and 36/5 K/BB ratio in 37 innings while holding opponents to a .188 batting average. Perkins has merged plus raw stuff, impeccable command, and an analytical approach to get extraordinary results in the ninth inning at a time when the rest of the bullpen has often been shaky.

Aaron Thompson: .264/.319/.364 in 137 plate appearances

Aaron Thompson's deal with the devil lasted about six weeks, during which time the 28-year-old journeyman moved up the bullpen hierarchy to earn manager Paul Molitor's trust in a setup role. And then he turned back into a pumpkin, initially being relegated to left-handed specialist duties and then being demoted to Triple-A. Ryan O'Rourke replaced him in the bullpen, but Thompson remains on the 40-man roster and could return in a middle relief role.

Ryan Pressly: .257/.331/.314 in 119 plate appearances

Ryan Pressly was a Rule 5 pick in 2013 and, much like Graham currently, was useful in the short term while showing some long-term upside with a mid-90s fastball. Two years later he has a 3.46 ERA in 133 total innings for the Twins, making up for poor strikeout and walk rates by allowing just eight homers in 556 plate appearances. Unfortunately now Pressly is sidelined by a strained lat muscle.

Casey Fien: .250/.270/.429 in 116 plate appearances

After a three-season run as a quality setup man Casey Fien just hasn't been the same this year while struggling with some arm problems. He put together a couple of good stretches, but even during that success there were obvious red flags. Fien's velocity has been normal for the most part, but compared to 2012-2014 he's lost nearly half of his strikeouts and generated one-third fewer swinging strikes. That's a particularly bad combination for a fly-ball pitcher.

For a lot more talk about the Twins' first half, check out this week's "Gleeman and The Geek" episode featuring our MVP ballots and player-by-player breakdowns.

July 7, 2015

Who is Ryan O’Rourke and why is he replacing Aaron Thompson?

Ryan O'Rourke Twins

Aaron Thompson was among the Twins' final cuts in spring training, officially being optioned to Triple-A on March 31, but he was recalled and added to the bullpen four days later following Ervin Santana's suspension. Thompson almost immediately worked his way past Brian Duensing to become the primary left-handed setup man and manager Paul Molitor quickly began trusting the 28-year-old journeyman enough to get key late-inning outs against lefties and righties.

For a while it worked, as Molitor used Thompson in 17 of the first 34 games and he posted a 2.11 ERA while holding opponents to a .181 batting average. And then things began to unravel. He had a rough outing on May 17, at which point Molitor ceased relying on Thompson as a setup man and started using him as a situational left-hander. After facing an average of 4.8 batters in his first 18 appearances Thompson faced an average of 2.2 batters in his next 23 appearances.

Despite the altered usage designed to shield him from good right-handed hitters Thompson fell apart. Starting with that May 17 outing and ending with his demotion to Triple-A after Monday's game, he allowed 14 runs in 11 innings with more walks than strikeouts and a .388 opponents' batting average. Thompson heads to Rochester with a 5.01 ERA and 17/11 K/BB ratio in 32 innings, which is more or less what you'd expect based on his underwhelming track record.

However, it's worth noting that while Thompson was exposed in a prominent role and struggled overall he fared well against left-handed hitters by holding them to a .189 batting average, zero home runs, and a .526 OPS in 62 plate appearances. I'm not a big fan of using a roster spot on a situational left-hander unless they're absolutely unhittable in that role, but Thompson did just fine when asked to get lefties out.

In demoting Thompson back to Triple-A the Twins replaced him with Rochester left-hander Ryan O'Rourke, a 27-year-old former 13th-round draft pick with a 4.15 ERA in six seasons as a minor leaguer. O'Rourke has never appeared on my annual list of the Twins' top-40 prospects, went unpicked in the Rule 5 draft despite being left unprotected, hasn't logged 50 innings in a season since 2012, and brings with him an ugly 5.93 ERA in 20 appearances for Rochester.

So why is he now in the big leagues, replacing Thompson in the bullpen? Because the Twins are convinced that having a situational left-hander makes sense and O'Rourke is death to lefties. This year at Triple-A he faced 36 left-handed hitters and struck out 20 of them while allowing five hits. Last season at Double-A he faced 74 left-handed hitters and struck out 42 of them while allowing eight hits. And during that two-year span righties hit .340 off O'Rourke.

Thompson did a perfectly good job getting lefties out, but struggled so much when also asked to consistently get righties out that the team lost faith in him overall. O'Rourke will probably be even worse if asked to face righties on a regular basis given that he couldn't get them out at Double-A and Triple-A, but clearly Molitor has plans to use him in a strict situational left-hander role and if that happens he has a chance to thrive for one or two batters per appearance.

O'Rourke shifted to the bullpen full time in 2012 and since then he's faced left-handed hitters in 247 plate appearances spread across four levels of the minors. He's held them to a .151 batting average and .199 slugging percentage with 115 strikeouts and 19 walks. Or, to put those crazy numbers another way: O'Rourke's matchups with lefties from 2012-2015 resulted in a strikeout 47 percent of the time and a hitter reaching base safely 21 percent of the time.

This season Thompson has held lefties to .189/.262/.264, which is excellent and will be hard for O'Rourke to top. However, that came attached to an unimpressive 11/6 K/BB ratio versus lefties and clearly the Twins don't think Thompson's success will continue to the point that he'll be worth keeping on the roster in a very limited role. O'Rourke has the potential to thrive in that same role, but Molitor playing the correct matchups to put him in a position to succeed will be crucial.

For a lot more about the Twins' recent roster moves and call-ups, including Miguel Sano's arrival, check out this week's "Gleeman and The Geek" episode.

May 27, 2015

Wait, the Twins are winning? How did that happen?

Glen Perkins and Paul Molitor Twins

Coming off four straight 90-loss seasons the Twins were projected to finish in last place by nearly everyone, myself included, but instead they have the third-best record in the American League at 27-18. Since a brutal opening week of the season in which they went 1-6 and were outscored by 33 runs the Twins are 26-12 with a run differential of plus-52 and they've won 22 of their last 31 games. They're winning and they're winning a lot. But how? Here are three big reasons:

Scoring In Bunches

There's nothing impressive about the Twins' overall hitting numbers. They've batted .257 with 35 homers and 112 walks in 45 games, ranking 20th among MLB teams in both on-base percentage (.311) and slugging percentage (.388). They also haven't done much running under new manager Paul Molitor, stealing just 18 bases while being thrown out 11 times. And yet they've scored the eighth-most runs in baseball, including an AL-best 5.1 runs per game since their 1-6 start.

As a team the Twins have hit .257 with a .699 OPS overall, but with runners in scoring position they've hit .294 with an .806 OPS. When the bases are empty they've hit .240 with a .654 OPS, but with runners on base they've hit .282 with a .760 OPS. Whether you want to chalk up those huge differences to clutch performances, pure luck, or something in between it's easy to see why the Twins' lineup has scored a lot more runs than the overall numbers would suggest.

They've also done an exceptional job of clustering their hits together, exploding for big, multi-run innings to knock out the opposing starting pitcher or put a game out of reach. That's partly tied to the aforementioned significant uptick in production with runners on base and especially runners in scoring position, but it goes beyond that to an offense that has focused an unusually high portion of its damage within one inning per game.

Or, put another way: If a team averages nine hits per game they'll score a whole lot more runs if five or six of them are clustered together in the same inning than they would with a more even distribution of 1-2 per inning. Again, whether you want to chalk up the clustering of hits to clutch performances, pure luck, or something in between anyone who's watched the Twins this season can tell you their ability to explode for a big inning has been remarkable to see.

This year the Twins have scored four or more runs in an inning 15 times in 45 games, which is a pace of 54 times per 162 games. On average from 2011-2014 the Twins scored four or more runs in an inning 29 times per 162 games. So they've upped their OPS by 100 points with runners in scoring position, they've maximized a modest amount of overall damage by clustering it together, and they've exploded for a huge inning to put a game out of reach 2-3 times per week.

And that's how a lineup that ranks 20th in OPS can rank eighth in runs scored.

Late-Inning Relief

This season, like last season, the Twins' bullpen ranks dead last among all MLB teams in both strikeout rate and xFIP. Their rank in ERA is essentially unchanged from 23rd to 21st. However, within that all-too-familiar sub par performance from Twins relievers is some very good work in the late innings of close games. They've been bad overall, but in high-leverage situations where giving up a run could change the outcome of a game they've actually been quite good.

Glen Perkins is responsible for a lot of that. His excellence in the closer role is nothing new--he's already one of the three or four best relievers in Twins history--but he's been nearly flawless this season by converting 17 of 17 save chances with a 1.25 ERA and 21/2 K/BB ratio in 22 innings. Perkins ranks third among all relievers in Win Probability Added, which accounts for the situations in which performances occur within games and how that impacts the team's odds of winning.

His primary setup men have also thrived in high-leverage spots, which is shocking considering his primary setup men are journeyman minor-league signings Blaine Boyer and Aaron Thompson. Boyer is 32 years old and came into this season with a 4.63 ERA in the majors and a 5.31 ERA at Triple-A. He was terrible during the opening week, giving up runs in each of his first four games. And since then he's allowed a grand total of one run in 20 innings.

Thompson didn't even make the Opening Day roster, but quickly leapfrogged Brian Duensing and Caleb Thielbar in the hierarchy of lefty setup men. At age 28 he came into this season with 15 innings in the majors and 980 innings in the minors. And now he leads the American League with 23 appearances, 14 of which have come in "close and late" situations, and he's been nearly unhittable in those spots while holding lefties to a .094 batting average overall.

Thompson and Boyer both crack the top 10 in Win Probability Added among all American League non-closers and no trio of relievers in the league has a higher cumulative WPA total than Perkins, Thompson, and Boyer. They've combined for a WPA of 3.23 and the rest of the Twins' bullpen has a negative WPA, because in "close and late" situations the bullpen has held opponents to a .211 batting average and .536 OPS compared to a .314 batting average and .907 OPS in other spots.

And that's how a bullpen that ranks 21st in ERA can rank third in Win Probability Added.

Non-Disastrous Starting Pitching

Make no mistake, the rotation hasn't been good and Twins starters again rank dead last among all MLB teams in strikeouts. However, even being "not good" is actually a step up from the disastrous 2011-2014 rotation that ranked dead last in strikeout rate, ERA, xFIP, Wins Above Replacement, and opponents' batting average. For four years the Twins' rotation was a dumpster fire on which each new starter would pour more gasoline and now it's merely a standard bag of trash.

Depth has played a big part. Instead of constantly dipping down into the minors for a parade of replacement-level (or worse) starters the Twins actually have more decent rotation options than actual rotation spots, which is why Tommy Milone is currently dominating Triple-A hitters and the team is a month away from facing a tough decision when the biggest free agent signing in franchise history, Ervin Santana, returns from an 80-game suspension.

Twins starters rank 25th in xFIP thanks largely to the lack of strikeouts, but because they've been better at wriggling out of jams and limiting damage within troublesome innings the rotation sits right in the middle of the MLB pack in ERA at 15th. Whether you choose to put your faith in ERA or xFIP, going from dead last by a wide margin to somewhere within the realm of respectability has a huge impact on a number of fronts.

Compared to 2011-2014 the rotation is remaining in the game nearly 10 percent longer per start and surrendering 20 percent fewer runs per inning. Not as many games are already out of reach within the first few innings due to the starter blowing up and exiting early, which in turn leads to a less-taxing workload for the bullpen's middle relief underbelly and more of an opportunity for the Twins' lineup to explode for big, game-breaking innings of its own.

And that's how a rotation that ranks 25th in xFIP can still be a massive improvement.

To hear two podcast hosts try to figure out how to feel optimistic about their favorite team again, check out this week's "Gleeman and The Geek" episode.

April 15, 2015

Don’t act surprised: Twins build bad bullpen, get bad relief pitching

Minnesota Twins v Chicago White Sox

As part of the frustrating decision-making process that led to choosing the older, lower-upside option to fill nearly every up-for-grabs roster spot coming out of spring training the Twins now have a bullpen stocked with marginal big leaguers. To make matters worse their best setup man, Casey Fien, has been hurt and their lone standout reliever, Glen Perkins, continues to be in a role reserved for "save" situations that severely limit his overall usage.

All of which has added up to new manager Paul Molitor turning to an assortment of replacement level-caliber arms and repeatedly watching them fail, often in high-leverage spots. Twins relievers have combined to throw 21 innings with a 5.91 ERA and nearly as many walks (8) as strikeouts (10). Among all MLB teams the Twins' bullpen ranks either worst or second-worst in ERA, xFIP, strikeout rate, strikeout-to-walk ratio, and opponents' batting average.

Assuming that Fien's shoulder issues prove minor he'll soon be taking on a lot of the late-inning setup work that's been going to lesser options and in general the Twins' bullpen isn't as bad as it's looked so far because basically no bullpen is that bad. However, when you bypass better, younger, higher-upside options to give jobs to mediocre, low-upside veterans a bad bullpen is exactly what you get. No one, least of all the Twins, should be surprised by the early results.

This offseason 32-year-old left-hander Brian Duensing was a non-tender candidate because his inability to neutralize right-handers made him ill-suited for a setup role, but the Twins retained him for $2.7 million and kept him in a key role. They also spent $2.2 million on 33-year-old free agent right-hander Tim Stauffer, whose nice-looking raw numbers for the Padres came attached to a 90-mph fastball and included a 4.28 ERA away from MLB's most pitcher-friendly ballpark.

When the Twins signed Blaine Boyer to a minor-league deal in January it seemed like a move made mostly for organizational depth, because he's a 33-year-old journeyman with a 4.63 ERA in the majors and a 5.31 ERA at Triple-A, but he ended up making the team largely on the basis of a half-dozen spring training innings. Another former minor-league signing, 28-year-old journeyman Aaron Thompson, was chosen as the third lefty despite an underwhelming track record.

If healthy Perkins is a good closer and Fien is a decent setup man, but the Twins chose to fill the other five bullpen spots with Duensing, Stauffer, Boyer, Thompson, and Rule 5 pick J.R. Graham. And in creating that seven-man bullpen in which the only pitcher under 30 years old is there via the Rule 5 draft Molitor and the front office passed over several younger, cheaper, higher-upside relievers already in the organization.

Michael Tonkin is 25 years old and has pitched well in a few brief stints with the Twins, posting a 3.26 ERA and 26/9 K/BB ratio in 30 innings while averaging 94 miles per hour with his fastball. He was sent back to Rochester for his third straight season at Triple-A, where Tonkin has a 3.39 ERA and 85/21 K/BB ratio in 80 innings. He's young and cheap, he throws hard and misses bats, and he's fared well at Triple-A and in Minnesota.

Caleb Thielbar spent most of the past two seasons in the Twins' bullpen and pitched well as the third lefty, throwing 94 innings with a 2.59 ERA and 74/30 K/BB ratio. Ryan Pressly also spent much of the past two seasons in the Twins' bullpen, posting a 3.60 ERA in 105 innings. Pressly's secondary numbers were much less impressive, but he averaged 93 miles per hour with his fastball in the majors and has pitched well at Triple-A. They were both demoted to Rochester.

Lester Oliveros was acquired from the Tigers in the Delmon Young trade and missed most of 2013 recovering from elbow surgery. He returned last season to split the year between Double-A and Triple-A, posting a 1.64 ERA with 88 strikeouts and zero homers allowed in 66 innings. At age 27 his upside is limited and Oliveros' control can be iffy, but he throws in the mid-90s and has averaged 11.2 strikeouts per nine innings for his minor-league career.

Using the $5 million they spent on Duensing and Stauffer to acquire better relievers is something the Twins could have done this offseason, but even ignoring that possibility they had no shortage of intriguing, cheap, in-house bullpen options deserving of an opportunity and/or extended stay in the majors. They chose to give roster spots to none of them and the early results are what that flawed decision-making process deserves.

For a sadness- and anger-filled discussion of the Twins' rough opening week, check out the latest "Gleeman and The Geek" episode.

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