February 13, 2013

Top 40 Twins Prospects of 2013: 30, 29, 28, 27, 26

Also in this series: 1-5, 6-10, 11-15, 16-20, 21-25, 31-35, 36-40.

30. Kennys Vargas | First Base | DOB: 8/90 | Bats: Switch | Sign: Puerto Rico

YEAR     LV      PA      AVG      OBP      SLG     HR    XBH     BB     SO
2010     RK-    160     .324     .388     .507      3     19     13     40
2011     RK+    191     .322     .377     .489      6     17     15     50
2012     A-     186     .318     .419     .610     11     22     28     41

Miguel Sano was the big draw in Beloit last season but Kennys Vargas actually had the highest OPS on the team by more than 100 points, hitting .318/.419/.610 with 11 homers and 10 doubles in 41 games. He also put up big numbers in rookie-ball during the previous three seasons and the 6-foot-5, switch-hitting first baseman has a .309/.390/.509 career line with 68 extra-base hits and 73 walks in 159 games through age 21. That's the good news.

The bad news is that he's played just 159 career games thanks to serving a 50-game suspension after being busted in 2011 for a weight loss drug used to speed metabolism. And as you might expect from a 6-foot-5 slugger who struggles to control his weight Vargas isn't much of a defender at first base and has struck out 173 times in 667 plate appearances. He's big and slow and swings through a lot of pitches, but Vargas' power potential is very intriguing.

Of course, he was also somewhat old for the level of competition in the Midwest League and as far as player types go low-minors sluggers with high strikeout rates who're destined to wind up at designated hitter don't have a particularly good track record of long-term success. This year should tell a lot about Vargas as he moves up to high Single-A and hopefully puts in a full season for the first time at age 22.

29. B.J. Hermsen | Starter | DOB: 12/89 | Throws: Right | Draft: 2008-6

YEAR     LV      G     GS      ERA        IP       H     HR      SO     BB
2010     RK+     8      6     3.32      38.0      39      2      39      4
         A-     12     12     5.00      72.0      85      6      46     15
2011     A-     21     20     3.10     124.2     131     10      81     31
         A+      5      5     4.39      26.2      34      1      20      6
2012     A+      4      4     0.78      23.0      16      1      12      5
         AA     22     22     3.22     139.2     145     12      75     25

B.J. Hermsen has nice-looking ERAs and win-loss records at every stop since the Twins grabbed him in the sixth round of the 2008 draft out of an Iowa high school, but his secondary numbers have consistently been underwhelming. Last season he went 12-6 with a 2.88 ERA between high Single-A and Double-A on the way to being named Twins minor league pitcher of the year, but managed just 87 strikeouts in 163 innings and has a career rate of 5.9 per nine innings.

Also worrisome is that after being touted as a hard-thrower coming out of high school the 6-foot-5 right-hander has typically worked in the high-80s with his fastball as a pro. He has excellent control and the ability to pump strikes at inexperienced hitters has no doubt played a big part in his low-minors success, but when a pitcher can't crack five strikeouts per nine innings versus Single-A and Double-A hitters it's tough to take him seriously as a prospect.

There are certainly pitchers who find some big-league success with miniscule strikeout rates, but most of them missed a fair number of bats in the minors and also induce lots of ground balls. Hermsen does neither of things and never has. Throwing strikes and knowing how to pitch have gotten him this far, but it's hard to see Hermsen developing into more than a back-of-the-rotation starter unless something changes.

28. Tyler Duffey | Reliever | DOB: 12/90 | Throws: Right | Draft: 2012-5

YEAR     LV      G     GS      ERA        IP       H     HR      SO     BB
2012     RK+    12      0     1.42      19.0      10      1      27      2

Drafted in the fifth round as part of the team's focus on college relievers, Tyler Duffey and Twins second-round pick J.T. Chargois were co-closers for Rice University. Duffey can't match Chargois' dominant raw stuff, but prior to the draft Baseball America's scouting report had him throwing in the low-90s with a good slider and his 2012 numbers were even better than Chargois' with a 1.93 ERA and 68-to-21 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 51 innings.

Duffey also had a 2.52 ERA and 76-to-18 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 61 innings for Rice in 2011 and struck out a total of 189 batters in 153 college innings. And unlike Chargois there's apparently some hope that Duffey's changeup is good enough to make it as a starter. However, for his debut Duffey was assigned to rookie-level Elizabethton and worked out of the bullpen, throwing 19 innings with a 1.42 ERA and 27-to-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio.

Those numbers are obviously incredible, but a 21-year-old college reliever thriving against rookie-ball hitters doesn't prove much of anything. Assuming the Twins eventually decide to actually test Duffey a little bit he could move pretty quickly up the organizational ladder as a reliever, but if they're serious about giving him an opportunity to start that whole process would probably take significantly longer.

27. Corey Williams | Reliever | DOB: 7/90 | Throws: Left | Draft: 2011-3

YEAR     LV      G     GS      ERA        IP       H     HR      SO     BB
2011     RK+     7      0     3.86      11.2      12      0      11      5
2012     A-     47      0     3.47      62.1      55      5      68     33

Before binging on hard-throwing college relievers in last year's draft the Twins used their 2011 third-round pick on Vanderbilt left-hander Corey Williams, whose 4.49 ERA didn't match his impressive velocity out of the bullpen. As a draft-eligible sophomore he was a tough sign and the Twins had to spend $575,000 to lure Williams into pro ball, doubling the recommended slot bonus amount.

Williams had a solid seven-appearance debut at rookie-ball after signing and then moved up to low Single-A last season, throwing 62 innings with a 3.47 ERA and 68-to-33 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He overpowered left-handed hitters, holding them to a .179 batting average and 24 strikeouts in 67 plate appearances, but had much less success versus right-handed hitters and struggled to consistently throw strikes overall.

Williams had 54 strikeouts in 55 innings for Vanderbilt and has whiffed 79 in 74 innings as a pro, which are far from exceptional strikeout rates for a reliever with a mid-90s fastball facing SEC and Midwest League hitters. On the other hand he's still just 22 years old and induces lots of ground balls to go with the good but not great number of missed bats, so Williams certainly has considerable upside as a potential late-inning reliever.

26. Adam Walker | Right Field | DOB: 10/91 | Bats: Right | Draft: 2012-3

YEAR     LV      PA      AVG      OBP      SLG     HR    XBH     BB     SO
2012     RK+    254     .250     .310     .496     14     25     19     76

Adam Walker's professional debut looked exactly like his college numbers suggested it would, as the third-round pick from Jacksonville University filled the stat sheet for rookie-level Elizabethton with extra-base hits and strikeouts. Rarely do the Twins draft college hitters in the early rounds, especially college hitters with big strikeout totals, so they clearly saw something they really liked in Walker's power potential.

And there's no doubting his ability to hit the ball a long way. Walker blasted 41 homers and 51 doubles in 168 college games and went deep 14 times in 58 games in Elizabethton, posting a .246 Isolated Power that was second-best in the entire Appalachian League. Unfortunately all that pop came with extreme contact issues, as he whiffed 184 times in 168 college games despite facing less than elite competition and struck out 76 times in 58 rookie-ball games at age 20.

Those are alarming strikeout totals and become an even bigger red flag when combined with just 19 walks in 254 plate appearances for Elizabethton. Over the years the Twins' farm system has been short on power-hitting corner outfielders and homers can certainly make up for a lot of other flaws, but until Walker cuts down on the strikeouts and posts a decent batting average there will be plenty of reason for skepticism that he can clobber more advanced pitching.


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November 27, 2012

Twins Notes: Pinto, Thielbar, Bromberg, Clement, Valencia, and Nishioka

• After clearing lots of the dead weight from the 40-man roster the Twins filled the empty spots by adding eight players: Aaron Hicks, Kyle Gibson, B.J. Hermsen, Michael Tonkin, Daniel Santana, Josmil Pinto, Tim Wood, Caler Thielbar. All eight players would have been eligible for the Rule 5 draft on December 6 if they hadn't been added and the first five names on the list were expected, as they rank among the Twins' better upper-minors prospects.

Pinto was somewhat surprising in that he's played just 12 games above Single-A through age 23, already spent about half of his time as a designated hitter, and failed to crack a .700 OPS in 2010 or 2011. He did bounce back with a strong season at high Single-A, hitting .295/.361/.473 in 93 games before a late promotion to Double-A, and the Twins apparently believe Pinto has a chance to be an impact bat.

When the Twins signed Wood to a minor-league contract on November 10 he didn't get a 40-man roster spot, but for some reason two weeks later they decided the 30-year-old reliever with just 58 career innings of big-league experience needed to be protected. He has a decent Triple-A track record and looks capable of being a useful middle reliever, but adding Wood to the 40-man roster weeks after signing him to a non-roster deal certainly seems odd.

Thielbar was cut by the Brewers two years after being an 18th-round draft pick and latched on with the independent league St. Paul Saints, where the left-handed reliever impressed the Twins enough to sign him in mid-2011. This year he pitched at Single-A, Double-A, and Triple-A, faring very well overall, but his 3.57 ERA and 32/16 K/BB ratio in 40 innings for Rochester were nothing special for a 25-year-old. Helluva story, questionable 40-man addition.

• Most of the aforementioned dead weight that was previously trimmed from the 40-man roster have either found new homes or re-signed with the Twins on minor-league deals. Samuel Deduno, P.J. Walters, Esmerling Vasquez, and Luis Perdomo re-upped without 40-man roster spots, Jeff Manship signed a minor-league contract with the Rockies, and Matt Carson signed a minor-league deal with the Indians.

At the time Carlos Gutierrez was the only player claimed off waivers after being dropped from the 40-man roster by the Twins, but two weeks later the Cubs dropped him from their 40-man roster and sent him outright to Triple-A when no one claimed the former first-round pick. As of now the Twins have a full 40-man roster, but there's still no shortage of replacement-level talent that can safely be let go if/when they need spots for trades or signings.

David Bromberg was the Twins' minor league pitcher of the year in 2009, but he was dropped from the 40-man roster after missing most of 2011 with a broken forearm and became a minor-league free agent last month. It was somewhat surprising to see the Twins sour on Bromberg so quickly, but he was never considered a top prospect and struggled this year working mostly as a reliever at age 24. He signed a minor-league deal with the Pirates.

• If you're into misleading headlines "Twins sign former top prospect, No. 3 pick" is a good one, but Jeff Clement seems destined for Rochester after inking a minor-league deal. While in the Mariners' farm system Clement ranked among Baseball America's top 75 prospects in 2006, 2007, and 2008, but poor defense kept him from playing catcher regularly and his bat hasn't been good enough for first base/designated hitter. For now he's just intriguing Triple-A depth.

Tim Doherty and Marty Mason replaced Tom Brunansky and Bobby Cuellar on the Triple-A coaching staff. Doherty will be Rochester's hitting coach after serving as a Red Sox assistant hitting coach this year. Mason takes over as pitching coach and his resume includes 11 seasons as the Cardinals' bullpen coach under manager Tony La Russa. Brunansky and Cuellar were promoted to the Twins' coaching staff as part of last month's quasi-shakeup.

• Last month when Tsuyoshi Nishioka forfeited the remaining $3.25 million on his contract to part ways with the Twins it was portrayed as an act of charity on his part. There's no doubt he did the Twins a favor, but as I wrote at the time: "He'll likely recoup the $3.25 million and then some back in Japan, where he was a .346-hitting, Gold Glove-winning star before leaving." Sure enough, Nishioka signed a two-year, $7.5 million deal with the Hanshin Tigers.

Danny Valencia spent most of his time at Triple-A after the Twins traded him to the Red Sox for a non-prospect in early August and now Boston has cut him from the 40-man roster. Overall this year Valencia hit .188/.199/.299 in the majors and .259/.300/.404 in the minors, posting a combined 90/21 K/BB ratio in 126 games. At age 28 he might be nearing the end of the line, although Valencia re-emering as a right-handed bench bat wouldn't be shocking.

Torii Hunter is back in the AL Central, signing a two-year, $26 million contract with the Tigers. That's a big commitment to a 37-year-old and his 2012 production was built on an sustainably great ball-in-play batting average, but it's worth noting that Hunter has more or less been worth $20 million over every two-year period since establishing himself in 2001. He's aged remarkably well and moving from center field to right field resuscitated his defense.

• For a whole lot more about the 40-man roster additions, Nishioka's raise, and the state of the Twins' farm system check out this week's "Gleeman and The Geek" episode.

February 23, 2012

Top 40 Twins Prospects of 2012: 30, 29, 28, 27, 26

Also in this series: 1-5, 6-10, 11-15, 16-20, 21-25, 31-35, 36-40.

30. Matthew Hauser | Reliever | DOB: 3/88 | Throws: Right | Draft: 2010-7

YEAR     LV      G     GS      ERA        IP       H     HR      SO     BB
2010     RK+     8      0     1.00       9.0       7      0      13      2
         A-      4      0     0.00       6.2       5      0       4      1
2011     A-     17      0     1.40      19.1      13      1      27     13
         A+     24      0     2.16      41.2      37      3      44     16

After two seasons at a junior college Matthew Hauser transferred to the University of San Diego and was mediocre as a starter, but then moved to the bullpen as a senior and worked his way into a part-time closer role with a 3.67 ERA and 37-to-9 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 42 innings. That got him taken by the Twins in the seventh round of the 2010 draft and the lack of leverage made him a cheap sign for just $45,000.

Hauser was fantastic in his 16-inning professional debut after signing, allowing one run with a 17-to-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio, and then began last season dominating at low Single-A. He quickly earned a promotion to high Single-A, finished the year at Double-A, and between the three levels he threw 64 innings with a 1.98 ERA and 75-to-29 strikeout-to-walk ratio, holding opponents to a .224 batting average and four homers.

Baseball America's pre-draft scouting report had Hauser typically throwing in the high-80s or low-90s in college, but he's added velocity as a pro and was clocked in the mid-90s at times last season. Those extra miles per hour have resulted in worse control, but he made some strides in that department late in the season and that's a tradeoff Hauser and the Twins will gladly take when he's striking out double-digit batters per nine innings.

29. B.J. Hermsen | Starter | DOB: 12/89 | Throws: Right | Draft: 2008-6

YEAR     LV      G     GS      ERA        IP       H     HR      SO     BB
2009     RK-    10     10     1.35      53.1      32      0      42      4
2010     RK+     8      6     3.32      38.0      39      2      39      4
         A-     12     12     5.00      72.0      85      6      46     15
2011     A-     21     20     3.10     124.2     131     10      81     31
         A+      5      5     4.39      26.2      34      1      20      6

When the Twins picked B.J. Hermsen out of an Iowa high school in the sixth round of the 2008 draft and gave him second-round money in the form of a $650,000 signing bonus he was touted as a power arm, but somewhere along the way he lost the ability to light up radar guns and miss bats. Hermsen stands 6-foot-6, so he certainly looks the part, but his fastball is regularly clocked in the high-80s and he's managed just 228 strikeouts in 315 pro innings.

That includes just 101 strikeouts in 151 innings between low Single-A and high Single-A last season, although the lack of whiffs didn't keep Hermsen from pitching well with a 3.33 ERA in 25 total starts. His success came from throwing strikes and limiting homers, as Hermsen allowed 11 long balls in 645 plate appearances and issued 2.2 walks per nine innings, but opponents also hit .278 off him.

Hermsen is still just 22 years old, so there might be time to rediscover the lost velocity, but it hasn't happened three years into his pro career and unless that changes--or he figures out a way to induce more ground balls to compensate--it's tough to project him as more than a potential mid-rotation starter. This season should provide a good test for whether Hermsen's now-mediocre raw stuff will get the job done against tougher competition.

28. Pat Dean | Starter | DOB: 5/89 | Throws: Left | Draft: 2010-3

YEAR     LV      G     GS      ERA        IP       H     HR      SO     BB
2010     RK-     4      0     0.00       5.0       3      0       5      0
         RK+     5      5     2.59      24.1      17      3      32      1
2011     A-      8      8     2.86      44.0      40      4      37      9
         A+     11     11     6.67      58.0      83      8      36     15

Like so many other college pitchers drafted by the Twins during the past decade Pat Dean got assigned to rookie-ball for his debut and predictably dominated far younger, less experienced hitters before struggling upon climbing the organizational ladder. Dean signed for $320,000 out of Boston College as the Twins' third-round pick in 2010, throwing 29 innings with a 2.15 ERA and ridiculous 37-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio between two levels of rookie-ball.

He began last season at low Single-A and continued to pitch well with a 2.86 ERA and 37-to-9 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 44 innings, but then fell apart after a midseason promotion to high Single-A. Dean made 11 starts in Fort Myers, posting a 6.67 ERA while opponents hit .332 with eight homers and his strikeout rate declined to 4.5 per nine innings. He made one late-season start at Double-A, finishing with a 5.00 ERA and 76/25 K/BB ratio in 108 innings overall.

Dean's control has been excellent and he's still young enough to get back on track, but for a 22-year-old with lots of major college experience to be knocked around by high Single-A hitters is definitely a red flag and the fact that his low-90s fastball and assortment of off-speed stuff already struggles to miss bats is especially worrisome. He looked like a potential mid-rotation starter when the Twins drafted him, but at this point that seems pretty optimistic.

27. Deolis Guerra | Reliever | DOB: 4/89 | Throws: Right | Trade: Mets

YEAR     LV      G     GS      ERA        IP       H     HR      SO     BB
2009     A+     16     15     4.69      86.1      95      6      57     25
         AA     12     11     5.17      62.2      62      4      49     17
2010     AA     19     19     6.24     102.1     127     14      67     37
         AAA     5      4     6.84      25.0      35      5      18      8
2011     AA     37     10     5.59      95.0     102     11      95     28

Four years after the Johan Santana trade Deolis Guerra is the lone player acquired from the Mets still in the Twins organization, and unfortunately he's gone from teenage phenom and consensus top-100 prospect to 23-year-old failed starter. Guerra was unnecessarily rushed by the Mets before the trade, which all but forced the Twins to do the same, and his lack of development combined with diminished velocity adds up to a 4.95 career ERA in the minors.

That includes a 5.59 ERA at Double-A last season after posting a 6.36 ERA between Double-A and Triple-A in 2010, but hidden by those ugly overall numbers is that Guerra thrived upon moving to the bullpen around midseason. As a reliever he posted a 2.77 ERA and 65-to-13 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 54 innings, which would be extremely impressive from a 22-year-old if it didn't come attached to all his previous disappointment.

Guerra threw much harder at 17 than he did at 22, but the 6-foot-5 right-hander's fastball still reaches the low-90s and his changeup remains an oft-praised pitch. Despite being younger than many Single-A players Guerra has spent two seasons in the high minors and is already on the 40-man roster, so picking up where he left off in the second half of last season could get him into the Twins' bullpen mix in a hurry.

26. Manuel Soliman | Starter | DOB: 8/89 | Throws: Right | Sign: Dominican

YEAR     LV      G     GS      ERA        IP       H     HR      SO     BB
2009     DSL    14     14     2.15      71.0      66      0      55     20
2010     RK+    12     12     3.48      64.2      47      5      74     21
2011     A-     28     25     3.97     136.0     128     17     120     50

Manuel Soliman signed with the Twins out of the Dominican Republic as a 17-year-old third baseman in 2007, but shifted to the mound after hitting just .199 with a .288 slugging percentage in two summer league seasons. He experienced immediate success as a pitcher and has turned himself into a legitimate prospect, throwing 272 innings with a 3.38 ERA and 249 strikeouts through three seasons.

After overpowering the similarly inexperienced rookie-ball competition in 2009 and 2010 his rough edges were more prevalent last year, as Soliman made his full-season debut at low Single-A and walked 3.3 batters per nine innings while serving up 17 homers in 136 innings. Poor control is to be expected from a 21-year-old with his background and at first glance 17 long balls in 136 innings is reasonable, but the Midwest League as a whole slugged just .370.

Soliman has good raw stuff, with a low-90s fastball and hard slider, but the 6-foot-2 right-hander seems more likely to wind up in the bullpen long term considering his late start to pitching and lack of refinement. He'll stay on the starter track for now and likely spend most of this season at high Single-A, so don't expect Soliman to appear on the Twins' radar for a while even if things go well in Fort Myers.

February 9, 2011

Top 40 Twins Prospects of 2011: 25, 24, 23, 22, 21

Also in this series: 1-5, 6-10, 11-15, 16-20, 26-30, 31-35, 36-40.

25. Anthony Slama | Reliever | DOB: 1/84 | Throws: Right | Draft: 2006-39

YEAR     LV      G     GS      ERA        IP       H     HR      SO     BB
2008     A+     51      0     1.01      71.0      43      0     110     24
2009     AA     51      0     2.48      65.1      46      5      93     32
         AAA    11      0     3.45      15.2      11      0      19      8
2010     AAA    54      0     2.20      65.1      41      5      74     32

After four seasons of being nearly unhittable at every level in the minors Anthony Slama finally got his first shot in the majors and didn't impress in five appearances, allowing opponents to bat .300/.440/.550 while showing the mediocre raw stuff and shaky control that convinced the Twins to keep him on the farm until age 26. However, a bad five-game debut is hardly damning and while nowhere near overpowering his low-90s fastball and high-70s slider looked decent.

Slama also surrounded that two-week stint in the big leagues with a very strong performance at Triple-A, tossing 65 innings with a 2.20 ERA, .178 opponents' batting average, and 74-to-32 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He now has a 1.95 ERA and 345 strikeouts in 249 career innings in the minors, including a 2.46 ERA at Double-A and Triple-A, which should be more than enough to get him another chance to establish himself with the Twins at some point in 2011.

His velocity will never match those great minor-league stats, but Slama is far from a soft-tosser and plenty of big-league relievers have had long, successful careers with similar raw stuff. His window of opportunity will be limited due to his age and the Twins' lack of faith, but hopefully four years of dominating in the minors earns Slama more than four innings to prove himself in the majors. He deserves a legitimate chance to sink or swim, and I still think he can float.

24. James Beresford | Shortstop | DOB: 1/89 | Bats: Left | Sign: Australia

YEAR     LV      PA      AVG      OBP      SLG     HR    XBH     BB     SO
2008     RK+    211     .246     .345     .285      0      6     25     35
2009     A-     505     .289     .342     .313      0     11     34     70
2010     A-     540     .297     .349     .363      1     25     34     56

International scouting director Howard Norsetter has mused that James Beresford still looks more like "the bat boy" than a big leaguer five years after Twins signed him out of Australia as a 16-year-old, but the 165-pound shortstop has developed into a very intriguing prospect by slowly but surely adding some power at the plate to go along with what has always been an outstanding glove.

Beresford had almost zero power in his first two pro seasons, managing just eight extra-base hits and a .292 slugging percentage in 100 games at rookie-ball. He moved up to low Single-A in 2009 and his power went from non-existent to very poor, and last year Beresford repeated the level while hitting his first career homer and more than doubling his extra-base hit count. He's still in no danger of turning into a slugger, but can at least drive the ball occasionally.

While he was young for low Single-A the first time around asking Beresford to repeat the level last year was odd because he won team MVP honors in 2009 and certainly held his own by hitting .289 with a .342 on-base percentage. He repeated as team MVP last year, hitting .297 with a .349 OBP and upping his slugging percentage by 50 points while cutting his strikeouts by 25 percent. Right now he looks like a bottom-of-the-order hitter, but there's room to grow.

23. Niko Goodrum | Shortstop | DOB: 2/92 | Bats: Switch | Draft: 2010-2

YEAR     LV      PA      AVG      OBP      SLG     HR    XBH     BB     SO
2010     RK-    128     .161     .219     .195      0      4      9     34

His name ranks as the best in Twins' farm system whether he goes by Cartier Goodrum or his nickname Niko, but last year's second-round pick struggled mightily in rookie-ball after signing out of a Georgia high school for $515,000. Pre-draft scouting reports focused on his raw tools and difficulty making consistent contact, and sure enough Goodrum hit .161 with 34 strikeouts in 118 at-bats in the Gulf Coast League.

It's impossible to find any positives within that performance, but Goodrum was drafted for his long-term upside rather than his ability to thrive immediately. Goodrum is a switch-hitter with what Baseball America described as "surprising raw power" and "good hands" while calling him "an easy player to dream on." He's a very long way from the big leagues, so Goodrum's future depends on the Twins' ability to mold his considerable tools into actual baseball skills.

He's athletic enough to play primarily shortstop for now, although no one seems to believe he has any real shot of sticking at the position and Goodrum may wind up shifting to the outfield eventually when his 6-foot-3, 175-pound frame fills out. He has above-average speed and a strong arm, so Goodrum should be an asset defensively somewhere as long as his bat proves worthy of being in the lineup.

22. B.J. Hermsen | Starter | DOB: 12/89 | Throws: Right | Draft: 2008-6

YEAR     LV      G     GS      ERA        IP       H     HR      SO     BB
2009     RK-    10     10     1.35      53.1      32      0      42      4
2010     RK+     8      6     3.32      38.0      39      2      39      4
         A-     12     12     5.00      72.0      85      6      46     15

B.J. Hermsen fell to the Twins in the sixth round of the 2008 draft due to a broken collarbone suffered as a high school senior in Iowa and concerns over his bonus demands, but ended up getting second-round money in signing for $650,000. He debuted in the rookie-level Gulf Coast League in 2009 and was nearly unhittable with a 1.35 ERA and 42-to-4 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 53 innings, allowing zero homers while opponents batted just .171.

Hermsen moved up to rookie-level Elizabethton to begin last season and thrived there as well, posting a 3.32 ERA and 39/4 K/BB ratio in 38 innings before earning a midseason promotion to low Single-A. He struggled at Beloit, managing just 46 strikeouts in 72 innings while opponents hit .295 with six homers, but maintained excellent control with just 1.9 walks per nine innings and was among the youngest Midwest League pitchers to start double-digit games.

As a 6-foot-6, 230-pound right-hander Hermsen has an intimidating mound presence and while in high school his velocity was regularly said to be in the mid-90s, but he's typically worked in the low-90s as a pro and has just 127 strikeouts in 163 career innings. He makes up for the lack of missed bats with pinpoint control and a fair number of ground balls, but it remains to be seen if Hermsen's size and once-touted velocity lead to the development of better raw stuff.

21. Manuel Soliman | Starter | DOB: 8/89 | Throws: Right | Sign: Dominican

YEAR     LV      G     GS      ERA        IP       H     HR      SO     BB
2009     DSL    14     14     2.15      71.0      66      0      55     20
2010     RK+    12     12     3.48      64.2      47      5      74     21

When the Twins signed Manuel Soliman from the Dominican Republic as a 17-year-old in 2007 he was a third baseman, but after hitting just .199 with a .288 slugging percentage during two seasons of Dominican summer league action he made the move to the mound in 2009 and had immediate success. Despite never pitching before Soliman joined the rotation in the DSL with a 2.15 ERA and 55-to-20 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 71 innings while allowing zero homers.

Last season Soliman bypassed the rookie-level Gulf Coast League to pitch one level up in the rookie-level Appalachian League, starting 12 games with a 3.48 ERA and 74/21 K/BB ratio in 65 innings as a 20-year-old, including seven no-hit innings in his second outing. He served up five homers, but opponents batted just .201 against him overall and the right-handed Soliman was actually more effective versus lefties (.160) than righties (.222).

He's a long way from potentially entering the Twins' plans and still needs plenty of refinement, but Soliman's raw stuff is good enough to take notice of the early success and his unique lack of pitching experience could leave lots of room for further development. Armed with a low-90s fastball and mid-80s slider, Soliman has gone 11-4 with a 2.79 ERA and 129/41 K/BB ratio in 136 innings through 26 career starts and will likely make the leap to full-season ball in 2011.

June 23, 2010

Twins Notes: Mauer, Lowell, Bonser, Neshek, Plouffe, and prospects

• A few weeks ago after Ken Griffey Jr. retired friend of AG.com Jay Jaffe wrote a good article at Baseball Prospectus focusing on his place in baseball history, which also included this list of the best No. 1 overall picks of all time based on Wins Above Replacement Position (WARP):

NO. 1 PICK           YEAR     WARP
Alex Rodriguez       1993    101.0
Ken Griffey Jr.      1987     79.7
Chipper Jones        1990     72.4
Harold Baines        1977     48.4
Darryl Strawberry    1980     46.9
Joe Mauer            2001     34.5

I was surprised to see that only six No. 1 overall picks in baseball history have accumulated as many as 30 career WARP. To put that in some Twins-related context, Corey Koskie and Greg Gagne had 26.0 and 24.6 career WARP, respectively. Joe Mauer is already the sixth-best No. 1 pick ever despite being in the middle of his age-27 season. He won't top Alex Rodriguez and may be a long shot to pass Griffey, but should give Chipper Jones a run for the third spot.

• Last week I examined whether the Twins should trade for Mike Lowell after Ken Rosenthal of FOXSports.com reported they were talking to the Red Sox about the veteran third baseman. Rosenthal has since followed up his initial report, adding that the Red Sox are in a "stalemate" with the Twins and Rangers regarding Lowell because they're willing to pay the rest of his $12 million salary, but only if they get a decent player in return.

In other words the Red Sox want to save money or get a decent player. If the Twins are willing to absorb most of Lowell's remaining salary they can likely get him for a low-level prospect. If the Twins are willing to part with a mid-level prospect the Red Sox will likely pay the rest of his salary. Either way, the price is right. Lowell makes sense as a third baseman or DH platoon partner for Jason Kubel, who has a Jacque Jones-like .235/.317/.352 career line off lefties.

• Traded to the Red Sox in December after missing all of last year following shoulder surgery, Boof Bonser spent the first two months of this season on the disabled list, allowed four runs without recording an out in his first big-league appearance in 21 months, and was designated for assignment a week later. Meanwhile, the prospect the Twins got in return, Chris Province, has a 5.66 ERA in 41 innings as a 25-year-old reliever at Double-A. Seems like a fair trade.

• After angering the team by writing publicly about his injury status, Pat Neshek was activated from the disabled list and optioned to Triple-A earlier this month, with Ron Gardenhire saying:

He's just like everyone else in the minor leagues now. He's got to pitch his way back up. When there's a need, he'll get an opportunity ... if he's the one throwing the ball good.

Neshek has pitched in four Triple-A games with a 2.00 ERA, .152 opponents' batting average, and 7-to-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio in nine innings. So far so good, although I doubt he's gotten much closer to rejoining the Twins and even a 2.00 ERA ranks just third-best in the Rochester bullpen behind Kyle Waldrop at 1.16 and Anthony Slama at 1.60 ERA. Despite that, Rochester is 28-41 and has the worst team ERA in the International League at 5.03.

Jayson Stark of ESPN.com reported recently that the Orioles have been "sniffing around for a shortstop" and Trevor Plouffe "is rumored to have piqued their interest." Plouffe was oddly the only shortstop Stark mentioned by name and that seems like some awfully random smoke if there's zero fire behind it. Over the weekend Plouffe was sent back to Triple-A, where he's hit a career-best .278/.340/.449 in 54 games.

• Last week B.J. Hermsen was four outs from a no-hitter at low Single-A, settling for a one-hit shutout. Friend of AG.com and former part-time MLB.com Twins beat writer Thor Nystrom was in attendance and told me Hermsen was "very solid looking" and "goes after guys." However, he was surprised that Hermsen "doesn't throw hard for his size" and "doesn't have dominant stuff," which matches reports I got before ranking him as this year's 18th-best Twins prospect.

• After signing in September for $3.15 million, Miguel Sano homered on the first pitch he saw in the Dominican Summer League and is hitting .341/.444/.636 in 14 games. What makes that even more impressive is the DSL as a whole hitting .234 with a .315 slugging percentage this year, so his OPS is 427 points higher than the league average. Also worth noting is that Sano has played primarily third base, so any notion of him as a long-term shortstop is already over.

• In less positive prospect news, last year's supplemental first-round pick Matthew Bashore is out for the season following Tommy John elbow surgery and third-round pick Ben Tootle is out indefinitely after shoulder surgery. Bashore signed for $750,000 shortly after the draft, but got into just one game before being shut down and never pitched this year. Tootle looked good in his debut last year, but gave up 17 runs in 18 innings before going under the knife this year.

• Outfield prospect Rene Tosoni is also out for the season following shoulder surgery, which is a shame because he was off to a good start at Double-A after ranking 11th on my preseason list and could have factored into the Twins' plans at some point next season.