June 25, 2014

Twins Notes: Berrios, Vargas, Dozier, Hughes, Hicks, Pino, and Perkins

Minnesota Twins v Boston Red Sox

• Right-hander Jose Berrios and first baseman Kennys Vargas will represent the Twins in the Futures Game, which is MLB's annual prospect showcase as part of the All-Star festivities. Berrios was the Twins' supplemental first-round pick in 2012, going 30 spots after they snagged Byron Buxton. Last season a mediocre ERA hid what was a strong overall performance for a 19-year-old at low Single-A and this season his ERA and secondary numbers are on the same page.

Berrios is one of just two 20-year-olds in the entire Florida State League with at least 50 innings, posting a 2.05 ERA and 98/21 K/BB ratio in 83 innings. His strikeout rate of 10.6 per nine innings ranks second in the league behind only a 23-year-old and he's held opponents to a .219 batting average with just three homers. Berrios ranked fifth on my list of Twins prospects coming into the season and has upped his stock even further since then.

Vargas placed 23rd in that same ranking, but has also upped his stock considerably by hitting .318/.395/.531 in 70 games at Double-A. At age 23 he's not particularly young for the Eastern League and massive first basemen who'll probably wind up as designated hitters generally aren't a great prospect group on which to bet long term, but the switch-hitter has huge power potential and has made big strides with his strike-zone control.

UPDATE: Triple-A right-hander Trevor May has also been added to the Futures Game roster.

Brian Dozier hasn't slowed down following his surprisingly powerful start to the season and in fact June has been by far his best month with a .310/.449/.549 line that includes four homers and more walks (16) than strikeouts (13) in 21 games. Going back even further, in the past calendar year Dozier ranks as the third-best second baseman in all of baseball according to Wins Above Replacement, behind only Matt Carpenter and Robinson Cano.

During that 365-day span Dozier has hit .252/.340/.444 with 26 homers and 23 steals in 160 games, which along with very good defense adds up to an all-around performance that tops big names like Dustin Pedroia, Ian Kinsler, and Chase Utley. Not only does Dozier rank among the league leaders in walks after showing strong strike-zone control in the minors, his power has come out of nowhere after he hit a grand total of 16 homers in 365 games as a minor leaguer.

Ricky Nolasco has been disappointing, but the Twins' other free agent pitching pickup has outperformed expectations in a big way. Phil Hughes has a 3.40 ERA and 82/9 K/BB ratio in 95 innings after posting a 5.19 ERA for the Yankees last season and a 4.53 ERA in seven seasons for New York overall. He's issued zero walks in nine of 15 starts (60 percent) this season. Prior to this season Hughes had zero walks in 24 of 132 starts (18 percent).

Aaron Hicks giving up switch-hitting to exclusively bat right-handed seemed like a reasonable decision given his struggles from the left side of the plate, but after all of one month and very few at-bats thanks to a shoulder injury he's already gone back to switch-hitting. Hicks is technically in the minors on a rehab assignment, but it's hard to see what's gained by keeping him in the majors at this point. Let him try to thrive versus Triple-A pitching for a while.

UPDATE: Hicks has been activated from the disabled list and demoted to Double-A.

Yohan Pino had the seventh-best "Game Score" by any Twins pitcher in his MLB debut behind Andrew Albers, Bert Blyleven, Anthony Swarzak, Allan Anderson, Eddie Bane, and Brad Havens. Take from that group what you will.

Kendrys Morales has hit .222/.271/.333 in 14 games for the Twins. Josmil Pinto has hit .282/.417/.513 in 12 games at Triple-A since his demotion. And his career OPS in the majors remains higher than Morales' mark since 2012.

• On a related note, Glen Perkins had some pretty damning things to say about Pinto's pitch-framing skills, which puts a dent into his already slim chances of being a catcher long term.

• Perkins' record as a reliever is 13-5, including 8-1 since 2012 and 5-0 since 2013, and the Twins have won five of his last six blown saves. Among all MLB relievers with 30 or more innings this season Perkins ranks fifth in K/BB ratio, seventh in strikeout rate, and ninth in xFIP.

• In the same presented-without-comment vein as the previous versions:

Tony Gwynn: .338 AVG, .388 OBP, .459 SLG, .847 OPS, 132 OPS+
Joe Mauer: .320 AVG, .401 OBP, .461 SLG, .863 OPS, 133 OPS+

• Random thing I noticed while looking up some other stuff: Denard Span had a .390 on-base percentage in his first two seasons. Since then he has a .329 on-base percentage in five seasons, never topping .342 in any year.

Johan Santana was on the verge of completing his multi-year comeback from multiple shoulder surgeries by joining the Orioles' rotation, but now he's done for the season with a torn Achilles' tendon. Just in case anyone forgot:

Clayton Kershaw, 2009-2014: 1,145 innings, 9.4 K/9, 3.4 K/BB, 155 ERA+
Johan Santana, 2002-2008: 1,413 innings, 9.5 K/9, 4.2 K/BB, 156 ERA+

• Since the beginning of last season the Twins are 16-10 (.615) against the White Sox and 86-125 (.408) against everyone else.

• For way more on Hicks, Vargas, Morales, and Pino, plus lots of talk about Oswaldo Arcia and Kyle Gibson, check out this week's "Gleeman and The Geek" episode.


This week's blog content is sponsored by R.F. Moeller Jeweler's repair department, which is recognized as the premier jewelry repair facility in the Twin Cities. Please support them for supporting AG.com.

June 6, 2014

Link-O-Rama

Steve Neuman broke down the amazing "Uptown living" video like only Randball's Stu can, although honestly I aspire to be a dollar-store Ryan Gosling. Or even a dime-store Ryan Gosling.

Joe Posnanski writing about FSN's ridiculous Derek Jeter "scouting report" is one of the best things I've read this year.

• I loved Dirk Hayhurst's essay/rant about the silliness of baseball's so-called "unwritten rules."

• On this week's "Gleeman and The Geek" episode we talked a lot about Phil Hughes, Josmil Pinto, Jason Kubel, and Aaron Hicks, plus I outed John Bonnes for having a weird fetish.

Parker Hageman's podcast co-host (and friend of AG.com) Dan Anderson got much-deserved internet fame this week when his wedding party decided to do their photo shoot on a dock:

I'm sure he'll give a detailed breakdown of the incident on the next "No Juice Podcast" episode.

Maureen O'Connor of New York Magazine writing about being shipped to California to date tech guys is fascinating and funny and sad all at the same time.

Headline of the week/weak: "Diet and exercise may help maintain weight loss."

• Old friend Joe Nathan isn't doing so well in Detroit.

• Old friend Johan Santana is back in the majors, sort of.

• I really enjoyed Rob Neyer's article/oral history about the St. Louis Cardinals' great 2009 draft.

• I am apparently a Princess/Hedonist, which sounds about right.

• Baseball press boxes can be a dangerous place, as former Twins beat reporter Mark Sheldon learned all too well thanks to Pablo Sandoval.

Brian Dozier can solve a Rubik's Cube in two minutes:

And he has great hair.

• Presented without comment: Joe Mauer vs. Derek Jeter. Or maybe how about Joe Mauer vs. Kirby Puckett?

• On a related note, the comments on this are amazing.

• I met a lot of people like this in the past few days.

• Apparently the Twins are moving their Double-A team from New Britain to Hartford.

• I'm still sad that Rye Deli in Uptown closed, but at least a potentially interesting restaurant is opening soon in its old spot.

• New restaurant recommendation: Lago Tacos on Lyndale Avenue in Uptown. I went on opening night and ate so much food that I got right home, put on sweatpants, and passed out.

• I'm on Instagram now, posting mostly really dumb pictures.

• Some of this week's weird and random search engine queries that brought people here:

- "Minnesota Twins trade rumors"
- "Maximum amount of fresh garlic to be consumed"
- "When will Byron Buxton be healthy?"
- "How much money do the Twins make?"
- "Glen Perkins he's our closer"
- "Is Keith Law baseball Jewish?"
- "How much is Kevin Correia paid?"
- "Aaron Gleeman possum"

• Finally, this week's AG.com-approved music video is "Gun" by Chvrches:


This week's blog content is sponsored by R.F. Moeller Jeweler's repair department, which is recognized as the premier jewelry repair facility in the Twin Cities. Please support them for supporting AG.com.

April 16, 2014

Twins Notes: Dozier, Plouffe, Buxton, Mauer, Burton, Nunez, and Hughes

brian dozier and trevor plouffe

It doesn't make a lot of sense to attempt any meaningful analysis after just two weeks, but here are some random observations I've had while watching the Twins start 6-7 ...

• Last year Brian Dozier set the Twins' record for homers by a second baseman with 18, which came as a surprise after he totaled just 16 homers in 365 games as a minor leaguer. There was evidence that Dozier changed his approach at the plate to pull the ball more, and he's already gone deep four times in 13 games this year. I'm still not convinced he's a top-of-the-order bat, but 15-20 homers along with a solid glove would make him a long-term solution.

• It took 13 games for Trevor Plouffe to homer, but that might not be a bad thing because he looks like a much different hitter. He came into this season with a lifetime .240 batting average and 289/89 K/BB ratio, but so far he's hit .314 with an 8/8 K/BB ratio. His batting average will obviously go down soon enough, but Plouffe has been much more willing to push pitches to the opposite field and assuming at least some of the power remains that's a positive change.

• I'm not a big Alex Presley fan because he's stretched defensively in center field and stretched offensively in a corner spot, but as backup outfielders go he's a decent one. Losing him on waivers for nothing left the Twins lacking in outfield depth and injuries to Josh Willingham and Oswaldo Arcia quickly made that a problem. When it's still early April and you're starting replacement-level talent like Chris Herrmann in an outfield corner something went wrong in the offseason planning.

• With that said, given their current options the Twins might as well continue to trade defense for offense by using Jason Kubel and Chris Colabello in the outfield corners. For one thing their intended corner duo of Willingham and Arcia is brutal defensively anyway. Beyond that by using Kubel and Colabello somewhere other than designated hitter it also allows Josmil Pinto to get into the lineup and his long-term development could be one of the biggest keys of the season.

• Back when Miguel Sano underwent Tommy John elbow surgery I wrote about how so many of the best Twins prospects of my lifetime have suffered major injuries early in their careers, ruining the chance to see what they were fully capable of becoming without any road blocks along the way. On a sadly related note, Byron Buxton hasn't played since injuring his wrist diving for a ball on March 16 and the Twins announced that he won't see game action until at least May 1.

• I'm curious to see if Joe Mauer is more vocal arguing balls and strikes with umpires as a hitter now that he no longer has to help pitchers get calls from them as a catcher. That certainly seems to be the case so far, although being on the wrong end of a couple incredibly obvious terrible calls could be skewing the small sample size. Thanks in large part to Mauer's patience at the plate, the Twins lead the league in walks.

Jared Burton has had back-to-back brutal appearances despite nearly a week off between outings. Tuesday night he walked three consecutive hitters with two outs and then served up a grand slam, which really should have its own name along the same lines as a "golden sombrero" for hitters. Burton also struggled down the stretch last season, so it might be time to let him get some low-leverage work with plenty of days off mixed in.

Ron Gardenhire and assistant general manager Rob Anthony had some odd quotes about Eduardo Nunez after acquiring him from the Yankees, saying stuff like "we know he can swing the bat" and calling him an "offensive-oriented player." Meanwhile, he's 26 years old and has hit .267/.313/.379 in 270 games as a major leaguer after hitting .272/.315/.366 in 712 games as a minor leaguer.

Phil Hughes' results haven't been very good so far, but he's managed to keep the ball in the ballpark in two of his three starts and a 17/5 K/BB ratio in 15 innings will definitely work over the long haul. On the other hand even with Hughes racking up plenty of strikeouts the Twins' rotation as a whole ranks dead last among MLB teams with 5.9 strikeouts per nine innings. By comparison, four rotations are averaging more than 9.0 strikeouts per nine innings.

• For anyone going to Target Field: I highly recommend the Butcher and The Boar rib tips. They're new this season in right field around Section 140 and one of the best things I've ever eaten at a baseball game. Plus for $5.50 you can get a shot of Knob Creek bourbon with them.

• For a lot more about Mauer, Nunez, Willingham, Arcia, Dozier, Plouffe, and Buxton--plus the sad story of how I tore my ACL--check out this week's "Gleeman and The Geek" episode.


This week's blog content is sponsored by Fan HQ at Ridgedale Mall, which will be hosting an autograph and meet-and-greet session with former Twins closer Joe Nathan on April 26. Please support them for supporting AG.com.

October 30, 2013

Offseason Outlook: Brian Dozier

brian dozier twins

Over-hyped as a prospect locally after putting up good numbers at Single-A and Double-A in 2011 as a 24-year-old, Brian Dozier reached the majors in early 2012 and flopped both offensively and defensively. He hit just .234/.271/.332 in 84 games with an ugly 58-to-16 strikeout-to-walk ratio, showing none of the strong strike-zone control he displayed in the minors, and possessed neither the range nor arm strength required to be a big-league shortstop.

Dozier was so bad that the Twins demoted him back to Triple-A in mid-August and then opted not to recall him from Rochester when rosters expanded on September 1, putting his future in doubt. Still in the Twins' plans in part because they lacked other infield options, he shifted from shortstop to second base this season and was handed the Opening Day job, but hit just .214/.259/.299 with a similarly ugly 35-to-9 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 41 games through the end of May.

And then something clicked. Dozier got hot in early June and spent the rest of the season looking nothing like his former self, hitting .255/.331/.458 with 16 homers, 30 doubles, and 42 walks in 106 games over the final four months. During that four-month stretch he had a .789 OPS, which would have ranked sixth among all MLB second basemen overall this season. Or, to put Dozier's improvement another way, look at how his first 125 games compare to his last 106 games:

DOZIER         PA     AVG     OBP     SLG     HR    XBH    BB    SO
First 125     508    .228    .267    .321      8     25    25    93
Last 106      455    .255    .333    .458     16     48    42    85

Dozier more than doubled his Isolated Power from .093 to .203 and nearly doubled his walk rate from 4.9 to 9.2 percent. He continued to strike out a lot and posted a poor batting average, but the gains in power and plate discipline were very encouraging. For the season as a whole he hit .244/.312/.414, which was exactly average for an MLB hitter. That may not seem like a big deal, but no Twins second baseman has been an average or better hitter since Todd Walker in 1998.

Whereas it took two months to get going offensively, Dozier looked like a natural at second base right away. Highlight plays and the huge improvement compared to his time at shortstop may have led to fans and media members slightly overstating how good Dozier was defensively, but the eyes and the numbers definitely agree that he was solid. Ultimate Zone Rating viewed him as an average second baseman and Defensive Runs Saved pegged him nine runs above average.

Dozier hitting a grand total of 16 homers in 1,613 plate appearances as a minor leaguer makes me skeptical that he can maintain the type of power he showed during the final four months, but middle infielders don't need to be 20-homer threats to be assets offensively. MLB second basemen combined to hit .260/.320/.385 over the past two years, which is certainly within reach for Dozier even if he comes back to earth a bit. Add in good defense and that's a nice all-around player.

Given his track record, age, and skill set there probably isn't a ton of upside left in Dozier, but he was the Twins' second-best position player in 2013 and obviously has the starting job locked up for 2014. He could face competition soon from prospect Eddie Rosario, but for now it's not really an issue because Rosario just turned 22 years old, has played only a half-season above Single-A, and may not even wind up sticking at second base defensively. Still, next year is big for Dozier.


This week's blog content is sponsored by Twins Daily's new "2014 Offseason Handbook" featuring everything you need to prepare for the Twins' winter moves for just $6.95. Please support them for supporting AG.com.

September 4, 2013

Twins Notes: Pinto, Mauer, Carew, Dozier, Willingham, Colabello, and Sano

josmil pinto twins

Josmil Pinto fell off the prospect radar after failing to crack a .700 OPS in 2010 or 2011, but re-established himself as someone to watch with a strong 2012 and built on that this season. He started the year at Double-A, hitting .308/.411/.482 with 14 homers and nearly as many walks (64) as strikeouts (71) in 107 games to earn a late-season promotion to Triple-A. Pinto hit well in 19 games for Rochester and now he's getting his first taste of the majors.

By somewhat surprisingly adding Pinto to the 40-man roster last offseason to protect him from the Rule 5 draft the Twins showed that they believe his right-handed bat has a chance to be special, because reviews of his defense behind the plate have always been mixed at best. He's thrown out 34 percent of stolen base attempts during the past two seasons, which is a solid rate, but Pinto has also spent close to half of his time at designated hitter (in part because of a shoulder injury).

Pinto doesn't have huge power, totaling 17 homers and 36 doubles in 138 games at Double-A and Triple-A, but he certainly has some pop and hit .308 with 70 walks in 580 plate appearances while striking out just 93 times. He'll be 25 years old before Opening Day next season, so Pinto should be pretty close to MLB-ready and is an intriguing prospect in that his bat may prove good enough to be an asset at designated hitter even if his defense isn't good enough to be a regular catcher.

Joe Mauer going 5-for-7 with a homer in a crazy loss to the Indians a few weeks ago got me wondering about similar performances throughout Twins history. My first thought was to look at five-hit games, but because focusing on hits tends to overrate free-swingers and short-change batters who draw a lot of walks here are the Twins' all-time leaders in getting on base four, five, and six times within a game:

4+ TIMES ON BASE         5+ TIMES ON BASE         6+ TIMES ON BASE
Rod Carew        117     Rod Carew         23     Kirby Puckett      2
Kirby Puckett     94     Harmon Killebrew  14     Justin Morneau     2
Harmon Killebrew  92     Kent Hrbek        13     Rod Carew          1
Joe Mauer         89     Joe Mauer         12     Joe Mauer          1
Chuck Knoblauch   76     Kirby Puckett     11     15 Others          1

Mauer ranks pretty impressively on those lists, but here's the thing: He's only 30 years old. Here are those same Twins' all-time leaders in getting on base four, five, and six times within a game, except through age 30:

4+ TIMES ON BASE         5+ TIMES ON BASE         6+ TIMES ON BASE
Joe Mauer         89     Rod Carew         16     Justin Morneau     2
Rod Carew         84     Joe Mauer         12     Kirby Puckett      1
Chuck Knoblauch   76     Chuck Knoblauch    9     Rod Carew          1
Kirby Puckett     59     Harmon Killebrew   9     Joe Mauer          1
Kent Hrbek        59     Kent Hrbek         5     13 Others          1

Mauer and Rod Carew make for a very interesting comparison both for their overall production as high-average/low-power up-the-middle defenders and for their perceived value as Twins. Here are their respective numbers through age 30:

             G     AVG     OBP     SLG     OPS    OPS+
Mauer     1178    .323    .405    .468    .873    135
Carew     1328    .328    .384    .434    .818    132

Pretty damn close, especially once you go beyond the raw numbers and look at adjusted OPS+ to account for the different eras. They both hit for huge batting averages and minimal homer power. Mauer drew more walks and had a bit more pop, while Carew's great speed added to his value at the plate. And then Carew had the best season of his Hall of Fame career at age 31, winning the MVP by hitting .388/.449/.570. Mauer better have big plans for 2014 if he wants to keep pace.

Brian Dozier's homer Saturday set a new Twins record for second basemen ... with 15 (he's since added two more, continuing an impressive three-month power binge):

BRIAN DOZIER      2013     17
Tim Teufel        1984     14
Rod Carew         1975     14
Chuck Knoblauch   1996     13
Todd Walker       1998     12
Bernie Allen      1962     12

It's remarkable that a team could be around since 1961 and not have a second baseman hit 15 homers until 2013. During that time there were 232 instances of a non-Twins second baseman hitting at least 15 homers, including 12 seasons by Jeff Kent and 10 seasons by Craig Biggio. And the Twins had no shortage of excellence at second base in Carew and Chuck Knoblauch, but those two combined to reach double-digit homers just four times in 19 seasons in Minnesota.

Justin Morneau passing through waivers unclaimed let the Twins to shop him around before settling on the Pirates, but Josh Willingham was claimed off revocable waivers by the Orioles. That meant Baltimore was the only place he could be traded, but beat writer Roch Kubatko of MASNSports.com reported that the Orioles felt the Twins were "asking way too much" and the window closed without a deal.

So instead the Orioles added a different right-handed bat with good power and terrible outfield defense in Michael Morse of the Mariners and the Twins held onto Willingham, who's hit .164 with 33 strikeouts in 25 games since returning from knee surgery. Willingham is under contract for $7 million next season, which makes his situation much different than Morneau, but the way he's struggled all season it's tough to see any teams trading much for him this winter.

Chris Colabello was named MVP of the International League after hitting .352/.427/.639 with 24 homers in 89 games for Rochester. It's worth noting that the International League's previous seven MVPs were Mauro Gomez, Russ Canzler, Dan Johnson, Shelley Duncan, Jeff Bailey, Mike Hessman, and Kevin Witt. Not a prospect among them and Colabello certainly fits in that group, but I still think he can be useful if given an extended chance.

Miguel Sano finished tied for the eighth-most homers in the Eastern League despite his not being promoted to Double-A until mid-June. He hit 19 homers in 67 games there and the league leader is a 28-year-old with 23 homers in 139 games. Sano also finished tied for the eighth-most homers in the Florida State League despite not playing there since June 9. He totaled 35 homers overall for the most by any Twins minor leaguer in 25 years.

Wilkin Ramirez is done for the year after fracturing his left tibia with a foul ball. He previously spent three months on the disabled list with a concussion, so it's been a very rough season for the 27-year-old journeyman who won a bench spot with a strong spring training performance despite a thoroughly mediocre track record. He hit .272/.302/.370 with a 23-to-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 87 plate appearances and seems likely to be dropped from the 40-man roster this offseason.

Samuel Deduno, who complained of shoulder problems three weeks ago, left Thursday's start after three innings with shoulder soreness and has been placed on the disabled list. Deduno has started 33 games for the Twins, which is one full season's worth, and he's thrown 187 innings with a 124-to-94 strikeout-to-walk ratio and 4.08 ERA, which is exactly league average.

• Last year's second-round pick, Rice University right-hander J.T. Chargois, needs Tommy John elbow surgery after not pitching at all this season in an attempt to rehab the injury. As a dominant college reliever he was supposed to move through the farm system quickly, but Chargois will likely miss the entirety of back-to-back seasons.

• This year's Twins prospects heading to the Arizona Fall League are Byron Buxton, Alex Meyer, Eddie Rosario, Trevor May, Max Kepler, Zach Jones, A.J. Achter. That's as strong a group as I can remember the Twins sending to the AFL and it's hard to imagine too many other teams ever sending a better contingent.

• As expected the August 11 deal sending Jamey Carroll to the Royals for a player to be named later or cash considerations was essentially a give-away, as the Twins got an undisclosed sum of money to complete the trade. Carroll is 1-for-25 since joining the Royals, starting six games.

• Old friend Jason Kubel is back in the AL Central after being designated for assignment by the Diamondbacks and traded to the Indians. Since signing a two-year, $16 million deal with Arizona as a free agent last offseason Kubel has hit .242/.315/.447 in 230 games.

Joe Benson, who was designated for assignment by the Twins and claimed off waivers by the Rangers in mid-May, has now been designated for assignment by the Rangers. In between he hit just .205/.293/.394 in 37 games at Double-A, continuing a remarkably steep decline.

• Mauer rates extremely well in Matt Klaassen's comprehensive catcher defensive rankings this season, which further complicates the question of a potential position switch. Ryan Doumit again rates horribly, which is an annual occurrence.

• Mauer has hit .324 in 508 plate appearances. All other Twins have hit .232 in 4,713 plate appearances and no one else with 100-plus plate appearances is above .260.

• Buxton in August: .410/.533/.506 with 20 walks and 16 steals in 25 games. As a 19-year-old at high Single-A in his first full professional season.

This week's "Gleeman and The Geek" episode included a ton of talk about the Morneau trade.


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