October 9, 2015

Who will the Twins purge from the 40-man roster this offseason?

Chris Herrmann Twins

At the beginning of each offseason every team goes through the ritual housecleaning of shedding players from the 40-man roster to prepare for a winter of adding new players and protecting new prospects. Despite improving from one of MLB's worst teams to a Wild Card contender the Twins have no shortage of marginal big leaguers clinging to 40-man spots, so here's my breakdown of the players most likely to be shed and where they stand (in alphabetical order):

(Note: Free agents Torii Hunter, Mike Pelfrey, Brian Duensing, Blaine Boyer, and Neal Cotts are automatically removed from the 40-man roster.)

A.J. Achter: Called up as a late-season bullpen reinforcement in each of the past two seasons, Achter has allowed 17 runs in 24 innings for the Twins. His numbers at Triple-A are much better, including a 2.57 ERA and 21 saves in 99 appearances, but there's nothing impressive about his 136/51 K/BB ratio in 144 innings there and Achter's fastball tops out in the low-90s. He could find a niche as a middle reliever, but at age 27 he doesn't possess much upside beyond that.

Logan Darnell: After making four starts and three relief appearances for the Twins last season Darnell didn't pitch in the majors this year, going on the disabled list with pneumonia following a September call-up. Darnell was used primarily as a reliever at Triple-A, posting a 66/25 K/BB ratio in 78 innings. He works in the high-80s with his fastball and combines mediocre strikeout rates with poor control, so it's tough to see the 26-year-old lefty as more than a middle reliever.

Casey Fien: Arbitration eligible and due a raise to around $2.5 million, Fien could be expendable if the Twins get serious about upgrading the bullpen. He has a lifetime 3.82 ERA, including a 3.55 ERA and 41/8 K/BB ratio in 63 innings this season, but Fien is a low-strikeout 32-year-old and fits best in middle relief. They have bigger issues to address and a $2.5 million price tag isn't much, but the Twins could use more youth, velocity, and upside in Fien's role.

Eric Fryer: Re-added to the 40-man roster on September 1 because the Twins wanted a third catcher around once rosters expanded, Fryer has passed through waivers unclaimed before and figures to do so again. At age 30 he's hit .243/.329/.336 in 65 games as a major leaguer and .237/.328/.328 in 271 games at Triple-A. Organizations need players like Fryer around because catching is difficult to acquire midseason, but there's no need to have him on the 40-man.

Chris Herrmann: For long stretches in each of the past three seasons the Twins have gone with Herrmann as their backup catcher and he's hit .181/.249/.280 in 142 games. Among all players with at least 300 plate appearances for the Twins since 1985 his .529 OPS ranks second-worst, ahead of only his backup-catching predecessor Drew Butera at .494. And he hasn't been much better in the minors, hitting .261/.336/.391 in 152 games at Triple-A.

Tommy Milone: In a season that included a month-long demotion to Triple-A and multiple arm injuries Milone still ranked among the Twins' better starters with a 3.92 ERA and 91/36 K/BB ratio in 129 innings. His track record as a solid back-of-the-rotation starter is well established by 619 innings of a 3.97 ERA, but the question is whether the Twins want to pay him around $5 million via arbitration for 2016 when they seemingly have too many mediocre veteran starters as is.

Ricky Nolasco: He's owed $25 million for the next two seasons and the Twins can't escape that commitment, but there are two ways in which they could remove Nolasco from the 40-man roster to make use of his spot. One is to simply get rid of him via trade or release, both of which would require eating the remaining contract. The other is to let him pass through waivers unclaimed and outright him to Triple-A sans 40-man spot. Unlikely, but an option if space gets tight.

Eduardo Nunez: After five seasons as a below-average hitter Nunez finally produced a little bit, hitting .282/.327/.431 in a bench role. In two years with the Twins he's started 45 and 48 games while getting 213 and 204 plate appearances. Keeping him around in a similar role makes sense, but with Nunez due for a raise to around $2 million via arbitration it's possible the Twins will want to fill that bench spot with either a more capable defensive shortstop or a more potent bat.

Ryan O'Rourke: Added to the 40-man roster and called up in July to fill a left-handed specialist role, O'Rourke fared well initially before going through a rough patch and then mostly collected dust down the stretch. He held lefties to a .171 batting average for the Twins after dominating them to an incredible degree in the minors, so there's little doubt O'Rourke can fill the specialist role, but control problems and struggles versus righties really limit his potential usage.

Josmil Pinto: Pinto once looked like a long-term building block as a catcher/designated hitter, but he struggled in 57 games for the Twins in 2014 and spent all of 2015 at Triple-A having his season wrecked by concussions. When healthy Pinto is a good right-handed hitter with power and plate discipline whose defensive chops behind the plate are iffy. He's still just 26 years old, but catching regularly may be out of the question and the Twins have no shortage of DH options.

Ryan Pressly: Sidelined for the final three months of the year by a lat muscle injury, Pressly's place in the Twins' plans depends on his health and a belief that his 3.46 career ERA tells a more accurate story than his 85/47 K/BB ratio in 133 innings. He's a perfectly solid middle reliever and throws harder than most of the Twins' incumbent options for that role, but the 27-year-old former Rule 5 pick hasn't found a way to generate strikeouts and has iffy control.

Shane Robinson: After nine years in the Cardinals organization Robinson signed with the Twins as a minor-league free agent, won a spot on the Opening Day roster, and received a career-high 48 starts and 198 plate appearances. He hit just .250/.299/.322, which is in line with his modest track record. Robinson is a good defender with plus speed, but he doesn't hit enough to be more than a fifth outfielder and "fifth outfielder" is no longer even a job on many teams.

Aaron Thompson: For six weeks or so Thompson emerged as Paul Molitor's go-to lefty setup man and got the Twins through a bunch of key innings unscathed, but his deal with the devil ran out and he was demoted to Triple-A in July. He was nothing special there and did not receive a September call-up, finishing the season with a 5.01 ERA and 17/11 K/BB ratio in 32 innings. At age 28 there's nothing in his track to suggest Thompson is more than a replacement-level arm.

This week's blog content is sponsored by Harry's Razors, where you can get discounted razors and shaving supplies delivered to your door by entering in the code "gleeman" at Harrys.com.

July 31, 2015

Deadline deal: Twins acquire reliever Kevin Jepsen from Rays

Kevin Jepsen Rays

Faced with clear weaknesses at shortstop, catcher, and reliever heading into Friday afternoon's trade deadline the Twins addressed only the bullpen, acquiring right-hander Kevin Jepsen from the Rays in exchange for pitching prospects Chih-Wei Hu and Alexis Tapia. Their lack of activity should come as no surprise, in part because the Twins are typically fairly conservative and in part because meaningful midseason upgrades at shortstop and catcher are hard to find.

On the other hand contending teams adding veteran bullpen reinforcements at the trade deadline is an annual tradition and this year was no different, with nearly a dozen quality relievers on the move. That list includes Jepsen, who has a 3.80 ERA in eight seasons with the Rays and Angels, but beyond clearing the low bar of representing an upgrade over Casey Fien and Blaine Boyer he's an underwhelming pickup.

Jensen throws hard, averaging 95 miles per hour with his fastball, but his career strikeout rate of 8.5 per nine innings is merely average for an MLB reliever and has dipped to a career-low 7.3 per nine innings this year. Jepsen also has terrible control, walking 3.6 per nine innings for his career and 4.3 per nine innings this year. Jepsen's nice-looking 2.81 ERA in 46 appearances for the Rays this season comes attached to a poor 34/20 K/BB ratio in 42 innings.

He's essentially an average reliever. There are 152 different pitchers with at least 100 innings out of the bullpen since 2013 and among them Jepsen ranks 60th in strikeout rate, 111th in walk rate, and 64th in ground-ball rate, which adds up to an 80th-ranked 3.15 ERA and a 73rd-ranked 3.54 xFIP. By comparison Fien has logged more innings than Jepsen with an identical 3.54 xFIP since 2013, albeit with a higher ERA.

Jepsen throws hard, strikes out a decent number of batters, and does a good job limiting homers, but he also struggles to consistently throw strikes and has a lopsided platoon split that makes him a poor matchup against good left-handed hitters in the late innings. He's not especially good, he's not especially bad, and there's certainly a very realistic chance that he provides the Twins with 20 useful innings down the stretch.

In question is whether Jepsen was the correct veteran reliever for the Twins to target as their lone trade deadline addition when plenty of bullpen arms were on the move and, beyond that, whether an average 31-year-old middle reliever with declining secondary numbers was worth parting ways with a decent 21-year-old starting pitching prospect in Hu (along with a 19-year-old rookie-baller in Tapia) rather than simply giving a chance to an in-house option like Michael Tonkin.

Hu ranked 19th on my list of the Twins' top prospects coming into the season and has improved his stock since then, posting a 2.44 ERA and 73/19 K/BB ratio in 85 innings at high Single-A and tossing six innings of one-run ball in a spot start at Triple-A. Signed out of Taiwan for $220,000 in 2012, he lacks dominant raw stuff but is hardly a soft-tosser and has shown good control against older, more experienced hitters.

There's no chance of Hu turning into a top-of-the-rotation starter and non-elite Single-A pitching prospects have a very high attrition rate, but he's a young pitcher who currently ranked among the Twins' top 12-15 prospects and would probably crack the top 10 in a lot of farm systems. You can view Hu as a solid prospect or as a lottery ticket with good but not great payoff potential, but either way swapping him for a mediocre middle reliever is questionable.

Jepsen is under team control via arbitration for next season, which could be spun as a positive compared to the various impending free agents changing teams as two-month rentals. However, given his $3.03 million salary this season Jepsen would likely get $5 million or more through the arbitration process next season and if the ability to retain an average 31-year-old reliever for that salary carries value it isn't much.

This week's blog content is sponsored by Uber, which is offering a free ride to first-time users who sign up with the promo code "UberGleeman."

July 21, 2015

What should the Twins do at the trade deadline?

Eduardo Escobar and Kurt Suzuki Twins

For the past four seasons the only questions surrounding the Twins at the trade deadline were about whether they should trade away veteran players and whether any of the veteran players they might trade away would even interest contending teams, but this season is very different. Not only have they emerged as surprise contenders by starting 50-42, the Twins have done so despite three obvious weaknesses that could potentially be addressed with midseason pickups.

Starting catcher Kurt Suzuki has been terrible on both sides of the ball. He's hit .227/.283/.303 for a .586 OPS that ranks 26th out of the 28 regular catchers. He's thrown out 19 percent of steal attempts compared to the MLB rate of 31 percent and fares poorly in pitch-framing metrics every year. Suzuki's good first half last season convinced the Twins to give him a two-year, $12 million extension, but that decision looked highly questionable then and looks awful now.

He hit .237/.294/.357 from 2010-2013 and he's hit .235/.285/.326 since the extension. At age 31 with heavy workloads throughout his nine-year career there's little reason to expect Suzuki to turn things around. He's been among MLB's worst regulars and his backups--first Chris Herrmann and now Eric Fryer--are not starting-caliber players, leaving the Twins with an ugly situation behind the plate. Their catchers rank 25th in OPS and have been below average defensively.

Catcher is the spot where the Twins could make the biggest upgrade, but unfortunately it's also the spot where even an average all-around player typically carries a huge price tag at the trade deadline. To further complicate things Suzuki is under contract for $6 million next season, which isn't much in the grand scheme of MLB money but may be enough to make the Twins think twice about giving up prospects for a second catcher making considerable money.

Opening Day shortstop Danny Santana has been even worse than Suzuki, hitting .221/.241/.306 with a ghastly 63/4 K/BB ratio and committing 15 errors in 60 games. His current .547 OPS would be the third-worst in Twins history among hitters with at least 400 plate appearances. His overall value varies depending on which defensive metrics you rely on, but Baseball-Reference.com has Santana as MLB's worst all-around player with -1.7 Wins Above Replacement.

The bad news is that, much like for catchers, acquiring even an average all-around shortstop at the trade deadline is costly and difficult. The good news is that the Twins already have an average all-around shortstop in Eduardo Escobar. Based on both the eyes and the numbers Escobar is a solid defensive shortstop. He's not a good hitter, which is why manager Paul Molitor choosing to start Escobar in left field 27 times is confusing, but his bat is perfectly decent at shortstop.

Escobar has hit .260/.299/.384 in 279 games for the Twins, including .254/.284/.400 in 66 games this year. MLB shortstops as a whole are hitting .256/.303/.369 this year. His numbers are never going to look very pretty and his strike-zone control is barely better than Santana's, but Escobar is an average-hitting shortstop with average-or-better defensive skills if the Twins would simply let him play the position he held for nearly all of last season.

Relievers haven't been as big of a weakness for the pitching staff as catchers and shortstops have been for the lineup, but if you remove All-Star closer Glen Perkins from the equation the rest of the Twins' bullpen is revealed to be an unreliable, low-strikeout mess. Casey Fien and Blaine Boyer have been the primary setup men while combining for 35 strikeouts in 70 innings. Perkins has 37 strikeouts in 38 innings and that's not even a particularly great rate for a reliever.

Aaron Thompson was the primary lefty setup man until his early magic wore off and he was sent to Triple-A, so Brian Duensing was elevated to the role despite 47 strikeouts in 78 innings since last season. Relying on Fien, Duensing, and Boyer to get late-inning outs is no way to stay in the playoff picture and the other arms currently in the Twins' bullpen are Rule 5 pick J.R. Graham, demoted starter Trevor May, and freshly called up southpaw specialist Ryan O'Rourke.

Perkins has converted 28-of-29 save chances with a 1.41 ERA to rank third among AL relievers in Win Probability Added at 2.48. Every other reliever in the Twins' bullpen has combined for a 4.30 ERA (which would rank 28th) and a Win Probability Added of 0.86 (which would rank 19th). Even with Perkins' strikeouts included the bullpen has by far the lowest strikeout rate in baseball at 6.1 per nine innings when no other team is below 7.3.

Better relief pitching is needed, period. There are some in-house options with upside like Michael Tonkin, who's again dominating at Triple-A and has held his own in brief stints with the Twins. Of course, there's also room for the Twins to give an extended chance to a minor leaguer like Tonkin and add a veteran to the late-inning mix. And the good news is that acquiring capable relievers at the trade deadline is common practice and doesn't have to be overly expensive.

Teams often overpay when focusing on a specific reliever, especially a big-name closer, which is what the Twins did in sending top catching prospect Wilson Ramos to the Nationals for so-called proven closer Matt Capps in mid-2010. However, when teams are flexible and patient enough to let the market sort itself out there are usually decent setup men to be had for mid-level prospects, which is what the Twins did in getting Jon Rauch and Brian Fuentes inexpensively.

Perkins is a very good closer under team control through 2018, so there's zero need for the Twins to go nuts pursuing a big-ticket arm like Aroldis Chapman, Jonathan Papelbon, or Francisco Rodriguez. Instead they merely need someone to provide an upgrade over Fien, Duensing, and Boyer, which isn't a high bar and gives them plenty of options. Making the bullpen better should be a priority, but avoiding overpaying for two months of a veteran reliever is also important.

Catcher, shortstop, and bullpen are three obvious weaknesses. They can improve shortstop at no cost by handing the job back to Escobar. They should be able to improve the bullpen at minimal cost by shopping around for a decent setup man who can throw 20 solid innings down the stretch. To improve catcher would come with a bigger cost, because there are no in-house options, good catchers carry high price tags, and Suzuki is already on the books for $6 million in 2016.

For a lot more about the Twins' trade deadline plans, including some potential big-name targets, check out this week's "Gleeman and The Geek" episode.

July 16, 2015

Reviewing the Twins’ first half: Pitchers

Glen Perkins Twins

Twins pitching was abysmal from 2011-2014, ranking second-worst in ERA and worst in strikeouts among 30 teams. This year they're 15th in ERA, putting them on pace to allow 145 fewer runs per 162 games. However, they're still dead last in strikeouts and have improved to just 26th in xFIP. Vastly improved defense has played a big part, but luck has been a factor too. Before the second half gets underway here's a pitcher-by-pitcher look at the individual performances ...

Phil Hughes: .287/.303/.495 in 486 plate appearances

Last season Phil Hughes logged a career-high 210 innings and posted the best strikeout-to-walk ratio in the history of baseball. This year the durability and excellent control remain, but Hughes' strikeout rate has plummeted and his home run rate has skyrocketed. On a per-plate appearance basis his strikeouts are down 36 percent and he's served up a league-high 22 homers in 18 starts after allowing a total of 16 homers in 32 starts last season.

Hughes' fastball velocity is down 1.5 miles per hour and hitters have teed off on it, adjusting to his strike-throwing machine approach and/or simply taking advantage of a lesser version of the pitch. Whatever the case, he's gone from No. 1 starter to innings-eating mid-rotation starter, which was the fear when the Twins reacted to Hughes' career-year by handing him a three-year, $42 million extension with two seasons remaining on his original deal.

Kyle Gibson: .241/.305/.371 in 468 plate appearances

Nothing has really changed within Kyle Gibson's secondary numbers compared to last year, but his ERA has improved from 4.47 to 2.85 and he's avoided the blowups that plagued him every few turns in the rotation. His strikeout rate (16 percent vs. 14 percent), walk rate (8 percent in both years), and ground-ball rate (54 percent in both years) are all remarkably similar to last season and he's already given up almost as many homers (11) in 18 starts as he did (12) in 32 starts.

The big change is opponents hitting .165 with runners in scoring position compared to .277 last year, which explains avoiding big innings. At some point those numbers are going to normalize and when they do Gibson looks more like a 3.85 ERA starter than a 2.85 ERA starter, but nothing says his luck has to run out immediately and a 3.85 ERA starter is still plenty valuable. He's been the best starter on a team that handed out $170 million to three free agent starters since 2014.

Mike Pelfrey: .293/.357/.398 in 424 plate appearances

Unhappy about being moved to the bullpen during spring training, Mike Pelfrey got his wish and remained in the rotation following Ervin Santana's suspension. He fared absurdly well early on despite no changes to his poor strikeout and walk rates, constantly getting himself into jams and then wriggling out of trouble. Eventually that caught up to Pelfrey, who finished the first half by allowing 27 runs in his final 32 innings to take his ERA from 2.28 to 4.00 in six starts.

There's been lots of talk about pitching coach Neil Allen convincing Pelfrey to rely on off-speed pitches more, but that storyline loses a little steam when you consider his 4.41 xFIP is no different than his 4.42 xFIP for the Mets from 2008-2012 and his 4.5 strikeouts per nine innings are worse than his 5.0 mark during that span. Pelfrey has taken a somewhat different approach to pitching, but the results ended up in the same mediocre place once the early good fortunate vanished.

Trevor May: .286/.323/.428 in 364 plate appearances

Called up one week into the season to replace the injured Ricky Nolasco in the rotation, Trevor May led Twins starters in fastball velocity, strikeout rate, and xFIP. So naturally he was the starter moved to the bullpen when Santana returned from suspension. May took the demotion in stride, finishing the first half with four scoreless relief innings, but given his performance, raw stuff, and long-term upside the 25-year-old right-hander deserves to be in the rotation.

May was a mess in his first few starts as a rookie, but in his last 25 games dating back to August he's thrown 121 innings with 113 strikeouts and 27 walks. He still has plenty to work on, but May has seemingly solved his control problems in the minors without sacrificing velocity or strikeouts and only needs more patience from the Twins to establish himself as a solid mid-rotation starter three years after they acquired him from the Phillies for Ben Revere.

Tommy Milone: .243/.304/.382 in 276 plate appearances

When the Twins acquired Tommy Milone from the A's in exchange for Sam Fuld last July he was an established mid-rotation starter with a 3.83 ERA in nearly 500 career innings. They never saw that pitcher, as Milone allowed 21 runs in 22 innings before being shut down with a benign tumor in his neck that required surgery. He came into this season with a clean bill of health and secured a spot in the rotation, but was demoted to Triple-A in late April.

Milone toyed with Triple-A hitters, going 4-0 with a 0.70 ERA and 47/3 K/BB ratio in five starts before the Twins brought him back to replace the injured Nolasco. He predictably hasn't been able to continue racking up strikeouts since returning, but Milone posted a 1.84 ERA and 33/12 K/BB ratio in 44 innings during his final seven starts. He'll come back down to earth at some point, but Milone has been out-performing his modest raw stuff for five seasons now. He's a solid pitcher.

J.R. Graham: .265/.324/.445 in 171 plate appearances

J.R. Graham has been an ideal Rule 5 pick, showing long-term upside with a mid-90s fastball and proving useful in the short term when spotted in low-leverage situations. Sixteen pitchers have 10 or more innings for the Twins this year and Graham is the only one with an average fastball above 95 mph. Home runs have been an issue and Graham's command comes and goes, but remove one disastrous May 14 outing from his season totals and he has a 1.85 ERA in 39 innings.

Blaine Boyer: .262/.315/.416 in 164 plate appearances

Who leads the AL in relief appearances? Blaine Boyer, obviously. He came into this season as a 33-year-old journeyman with a 4.63 career ERA and his current secondary numbers are actually worse than his career marks, including just 18 strikeouts in 39 innings. And yet Boyer has a 2.75 ERA while spending much of the season as the Twins' primary setup man, refusing to implode. It hasn't been all smoke and mirrors, but it's been a lot of smoke and mirrors.

Ricky Nolasco: .324/.369/.441 in 149 plate appearances

For the second straight season Ricky Nolasco has been injured and ineffective. This time he made just seven starts, going on the disabled list with an elbow injury in April and an ankle injury in June. After a month of unsuccessful rehab Nolasco underwent ankle surgery that seems likely to end his season, so he'll have a 5.40 ERA in 192 innings halfway through a four-year, $49 million contract. What a disaster.

Glen Perkins: .188/.217/.246 in 143 plate appearances

Already one of the three best closers in Twins history, Glen Perkins set a new team record by converting 28-of-28 save chances in the first half. He also had a 1.21 ERA and 36/5 K/BB ratio in 37 innings while holding opponents to a .188 batting average. Perkins has merged plus raw stuff, impeccable command, and an analytical approach to get extraordinary results in the ninth inning at a time when the rest of the bullpen has often been shaky.

Aaron Thompson: .264/.319/.364 in 137 plate appearances

Aaron Thompson's deal with the devil lasted about six weeks, during which time the 28-year-old journeyman moved up the bullpen hierarchy to earn manager Paul Molitor's trust in a setup role. And then he turned back into a pumpkin, initially being relegated to left-handed specialist duties and then being demoted to Triple-A. Ryan O'Rourke replaced him in the bullpen, but Thompson remains on the 40-man roster and could return in a middle relief role.

Ryan Pressly: .257/.331/.314 in 119 plate appearances

Ryan Pressly was a Rule 5 pick in 2013 and, much like Graham currently, was useful in the short term while showing some long-term upside with a mid-90s fastball. Two years later he has a 3.46 ERA in 133 total innings for the Twins, making up for poor strikeout and walk rates by allowing just eight homers in 556 plate appearances. Unfortunately now Pressly is sidelined by a strained lat muscle.

Casey Fien: .250/.270/.429 in 116 plate appearances

After a three-season run as a quality setup man Casey Fien just hasn't been the same this year while struggling with some arm problems. He put together a couple of good stretches, but even during that success there were obvious red flags. Fien's velocity has been normal for the most part, but compared to 2012-2014 he's lost nearly half of his strikeouts and generated one-third fewer swinging strikes. That's a particularly bad combination for a fly-ball pitcher.

For a lot more talk about the Twins' first half, check out this week's "Gleeman and The Geek" episode featuring our MVP ballots and player-by-player breakdowns.

April 30, 2015

Casey Fien’s injury opens the door for Michael Tonkin in Twins’ bullpen

Michael Tonkin Twins

It's unfortunate that it took an injury to the team's best setup man for this to happen, but with Casey Fien headed to the disabled list the Twins have called up Michael Tonkin from Triple-A. Rochester's bullpen is packed with intriguing relievers, several of whom look like better options than members of the Twins' bullpen, but based on the combination of minor-league track record, major-league track record, and raw stuff Tonkin appears to be the best bet.

Known first as Jason Kubel's brother-in-law, then as a decent starter prospect, and now as a good reliever prospect, Tonkin has thrived since shifting to the bullpen full time in 2011 and the 6-foot-7 right-hander should have cracked the Opening Day roster rather than be sent back to Rochester for a third straight season at Triple-A. By the time Fien is ready to pitch again hopefully Tonkin will have convinced the Twins he's ready to stay in Minnesota for good.

Tonkin is huge and throws hard, averaging 94 miles per hour with his fastball in the majors, but unlike most reliever prospects who fit that description he actually throws strikes too. Overall at Triple-A he's handed out just 18 non-intentional walks in 85 innings along with 92 strikeouts and just six homers allowed for a 3.39 ERA. And when given a chance in the majors he's logged 30 innings with a 3.26 ERA and 26/9 K/BB ratio.

His fastball is late-inning caliber, his mid-80s slider generates lots of swinging strikes, and at age 25 there's no reason for Tonkin to continue dominating Triple-A hitters for another season. Fien's shoulder injury leaves the bullpen without its only reliable setup man and we've already seen how ugly things can get when that happens this season, but Tonkin has the potential to be as good or better than Fien and it's well past the time for the Twins to give him an extended opportunity.

This also seems like a good time to appreciate the good work Fien has done for the Twins since they signed him to a minor-league deal in 2012. At that point he was a 27-year-old journeyman with 14 runs allowed in 14 innings as a big leaguer, but Fien's minor-league track record showed he was capable of more and sure enough he emerged as a durable, strike-throwing reliever with more bat-missing ability than his modest raw stuff suggested.

Called up in mid-2012, he's logged 171 innings with a 3.59 ERA and 159 strikeouts versus 24 non-intentional walks. As an extreme fly-ball pitcher Fien has some issues keeping the ball in the ballpark, but 20 homers allowed in 686 plate appearances isn't terrible and he's held opponents to a .235/.268/.379 line while being equally effective against righties and lefties. Among all Twins relievers with at least 100 innings since 2000 he ranks first in walk rate and K/BB ratio.

This week's blog content is sponsored by Uber, which is offering a free ride to first-time users who sign up with the promo code "UberGleeman."

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