September 6, 2012

Twins Notes: September call-ups, Dozier, Slama, Span, Parmelee, and AFL

• As of September 1 rosters can expand from 25 to as many as 40 players, but the Twins waited until September 4 to do so and then called up just two players: Eduardo Escobar and Luis Perdomo. Escobar is a light-hitting 23-year-old middle infielder who was acquired from the White Sox in the Francisco Liriano trade and hit just .217/.259/.304 with a 26-to-8 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 35 games at Triple-A following the deal.

Perdomo is a 28-year-old journeyman reliever who was signed as a minor-league free agent back in November and began this season at Double-A before moving up to Triple-A. Between the two levels he threw 73 innings with a 2.60 ERA and 68-to-22 strikeout-to-walk ratio, and Perdomo also got a five-game stint with the Twins earlier this season in which he walked seven in six innings. He throws hard, but has iffy control and a 4.07 career ERA at Triple-A.

• Apparently those are the only planned additions for the entire month, which means players on the 40-man roster not getting call-ups include Brian Dozier, Deolis Guerra, Jeff Manship, Pedro Hernandez, and Oswaldo Arcia. Dozier's lack of a call-up is the most surprising, because when the Twins demoted him to Triple-A last month the assumption was that he'd definitely be back once rosters expanded.

Instead he was a mess in Rochester, hitting just .171 with a 16/3 K/BB ratio in 20 games to continue the troubling lack of strike-zone control he showed in the majors. Combined between Triple-A and the majors Dozier hit .233 with a .276 on-base percentage and .334 slugging percentage while striking out 92 times compared to 30 walks. Plenty of prospects bounce back from a terrible season, but the difference with Dozier is that he's already 25 years old.

• And then there's Anthony Slama, who as usual posted amazing numbers at Triple-A and as usual is ignored by the Twins. Slama finished his fourth consecutive season in Rochester with a 1.24 ERA, .195 opponents' average, and 56 strikeouts in 36 innings, giving him a lifetime 2.27 ERA and 191 strikeouts in 154 innings at Triple-A. Slama is 28 years old, so whatever career he was capable of having has been wasted because the Twins wouldn't give him a chance.

For his minor-league career Slama has a 1.99 ERA and 12.4 strikeouts per nine innings, racking up more than twice as many strikeouts (446) as hits allowed (213) in 325 innings. Maybe he would have struggled against big-league hitters, but the Twins will never know because they repeatedly left Slama in the minors to rot. This year that involved giving Jeff Gray five months and 50 innings to show that his lengthy track record of mediocrity wasn't a fluke.

Denard Span was finally placed on the disabled list after staying on the Twins' active roster for 18 days with a shoulder injury that allowed him to play just four games during that time. Rather than another rant about the Twins' medical staff I'll focus on the fact that Span's injury opens the door for Chris Parmelee to get an extended opportunity down the stretch after mostly sitting on the bench for a month last time he was in the majors.

Parmelee certainly deserves a chance after hitting .338/.457/.645 with 17 homers, 17 doubles, and a 52-to-51 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 64 games at Triple-A, but as I wrote three weeks ago without a trade or an injury there wasn't anywhere for him to play. It's interesting that the Twins are using Parmelee in right field because he figures to be below average there and played zero innings in the outfield for Rochester.

• This year's Arizona Fall League participants are out and the Twins are sending Kyle Gibson, Michael Tonkin, Logan Darnell, Caleb Thielbar, Chris Herrmann, Nate Roberts, and Evan Bigley. Going to the AFL is a way for Gibson to get some work in after missing most of the season following last year's Tommy John surgery and a strong performance there could give him at least some chance to compete for a spot in the Twins' rotation next spring.

Gibson, Herrmann, and Roberts each cracked my list of the Twins' top 40 prospects heading into the season and Tonkin will definitely be on the 2013 list after breaking out between two levels of Single-A. This will be Herrmann's second trip to the AFL, as he was part of the Twins' contingent there last year along with Dozier, Aaron Hicks, Cole DeVries, Scott Diamond, Dakota Watts, Brett Jacobson, and Bruce Pugh.

Lester Oliveros pitched well enough in the minors this season to emerge as a bullpen option for 2013, but now the hard-throwing right-hander will likely miss all of next year after Tommy John elbow surgery. Acquired from the Tigers in last season's Delmon Young trade, Oliveros threw 48 innings with a 2.42 ERA and 51-to-15 strikeout-to-walk ratio between Double-A and Triple-A at age 24 and has (or at least had) a legitimate mid-90s fastball.

• As the Twins appear headed for another top-five draft pick it's worth noting that the 2013 draft class, much like the 2012 draft class, is viewed as lacking elite-level talent. Keith Law's early ESPN rankings include Mark Appel in the top spot after the Stanford right-hander fell to No. 8 and turned down $3.8 million to go back to school, followed by Arkansas right-hander Ryne Stanek, Stanford outfielder Austin Wilson, and Indiana State left-hander Sean Manaea.

• After bludgeoning the White Sox for 18 runs Tuesday night the Twins rank fourth among all MLB teams in games with double-digit runs scored this season, yet they rank just 13th in overall runs per game. When the Twins score double-digit runs they're 13-0. In all other games they're 43-81 while averaging 3.6 runs per game.

Jamey Carroll snapped the majors' longest homerless streak Monday, going deep off White Sox starter Hector Santiago for his first home run in 1,540 plate appearances dating back to August 9, 2009. In between Carroll long balls Jose Bautista led the majors with 134 homers, seven players homered at least 100 times, and 93 players homered at least 50 times.

Parker Hageman of Twins Daily used video and numbers to examine Joe Mauer's struggles throwing out runners this season.

Ben Revere is now hitting .300 with a .690 OPS, which would make him the first player since Lenny Randle in 1974 to hit .300 or higher with an OPS below .700. Aside from Revere and Randle no other .300 hitter has posted a sub-.700 OPS since 1943.

• In the comments section of my post last week about Darin Mastroianni's future several people wondered if he could be an option at second base after seeing some time there in the minors, but Ron Gardenhire has already shot that idea down pretty thoroughly.

• For a lot more about September call-ups, Dozier, Slama, and the Twins' medical staff check out this week's episode of Gleeman and The Geek (which is back to being fueled by beer).

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August 21, 2012

Twins Notes: Blackburn, Nishioka, Tosoni, Carson, Parmelee, and Slama

Nick Blackburn's latest start came against the AL's lowest-scoring lineup in one of MLB's most pitcher-friendly ballparks, yet he still allowed five runs in five innings and served up two homers among 11 total hits. Among all MLB pitchers to start more than 15 games this season Blackburn ranks dead last with a 7.39 ERA (no one else is worse than 6.36) and a .340 opponents' batting average (no one else is worse than .316).

And as Twins fans know all too well, Blackburn's extreme struggles date back much further. Since the beginning of 2010 he's now started 71 games and thrown 408 innings with a 5.56 ERA while opponents have hit .313/.359/.507 off him. To put that in some context: Justin Morneau is a career .281/.351/.497 hitter. So for the past three seasons and 408 innings Blackburn has essentially turned every batter he's faced into a better version of Morneau.

Among all MLB pitchers to start more than 60 games since 2010 he ranks dead last in:

- ERA (5.56)
- Opponents' batting average (.313)
- Opponents' on-base percentage (.359)
- Opponents' slugging percentage (.507)
- Homers per nine innings (1.5)
- Baserunners per nine innings (14.1)
- Strikeouts per nine innings (4.1)
- Strikeout-to-walk ratio (1.55)

Quite simply: Blackburn has been the worst pitcher in baseball for the past three seasons and it's not particularly close. If not for the Twins giving him a misguided and totally unnecessary contract extension in March of 2010 he'd have been cut a long time ago, but instead they're paying him $4.75 million this season and owe him another $5.5 million in 2013. They also hold an $8 million team option on Blackburn for 2014, which would be funny if it weren't so sad.

And yet when asked recently about Blackburn's status for 2013, Ron Gardenhire said:

He's going to be one of our pitchers. He'll be one of our pitchers again next year, and we need good outings from him. He's the veteran of this staff now. Hopefully we'll let him finish out here and he'll get on a bit of a roll and get some wins underneath his belt and get him more confidence.

Gardenhire's stance apparently wasn't shared by the front office, because yesterday Blackburn was sent outright to Triple-A. That means he was removed from the 40-man roster and passed through waivers unclaimed, as predictably none of the other 29 teams wanted anything to do with his contract. Blackburn remains in the organization and can be recalled to the majors at any time, but first the Twins would have to re-add him to the 40-man roster.

Tsuyoshi Nishioka was also sent outright to Triple-A after the Twins initially optioned him to Rochester last week. Nishioka, like Blackburn, is no longer on the 40-man roster after passing through waivers unclaimed and will continue to play at Triple-A. I'm not sure why they avoided dropping Nishioka from the 40-man roster immediately last week or when they first sent him to the minors during spring training, but there's obviously no need to waste a spot on him.

• In further 40-man roster housecleaning Rene Tosoni was sent outright to Triple-A to make room for Matt Carson's arrival. Tosoni was once a solid prospect who projected as a potential starting corner outfielder, but he's 26 years old now and has been brutal in the minors for the past two seasons. Not surprisingly he passed through waivers unclaimed, so the Twins were able to retain him in the organization without the 40-man roster spot.

• By calling up Carson as a fill-in for the banged-up outfield the Twins showed they'd rather have Chris Parmelee playing in Rochester than collecting dust on the bench in Minnesota again and perhaps don't view him as a viable outfield option defensively. Based on his great Triple-A performance Parmelee is obviously deserving of another opportunity in the majors, but as I wrote last week there's nowhere for to consistently play him barring a trade or injury.

Carson is a 31-year-old journeyman who joined the organization in November on a minor-league deal. He previously had brief stints in the majors with the A's in 2009 and 2010, but was never a top prospect and has spent 11 seasons in the minors. Carson hit .277/.339/.447 in 110 games for Rochester, which is both nothing special for a corner outfielder and nearly identical to his career .264/.325/.447 line in 4,649 plate appearances as a minor leaguer.

• April elbow surgery knocked Scott Baker out for the year and the Twins will decline his $9.25 million option for next season, making him a free agent. However, with the 2013 rotation wide open and Baker looking for a place to get his career back on track a reunion is possible. Baker is scheduled to begin throwing off a mound in October and indicated to Joe Christensen of the Minneapolis Star Tribune that all things being equal he'd like to remain in Minnesota.

• After missing two months with a broken leg Anthony Slama is back to closing out games for Rochester, where he's logged 26 innings with a 0.70 ERA, .183 opponents' batting average, and 44 strikeouts. Slama isn't on the 40-man roster, but as noted above they created multiple new openings and there's no excuse for the Twins not to give a September call-up to the 28-year-old with a 2.25 ERA and 180 strikeouts in 144 innings at Triple-A.

• There are 10 pitchers in the Twins' farm system to throw 100 or more innings this year and all 10 have a strikeout rate below 7.0 per nine innings. Blackburn's likely replacement, Liam Hendriks, has the highest strikeout rate among those 10, whiffing 82 batters in 106 innings at Triple-A for a rate of 6.9 per nine innings that's actually below the International League average of 7.4 per nine innings. Pitching to contact still dominates the farm system.

• Back in 2003 the Twins moved their Triple-A team from Edmonton of the Pacific Coast League to Rochester of the International League, where they've been since. There were some rumblings that Rochester could try to ditch the Twins when their contract expired after this season, which would have left the Twins scrambling for a new Triple-A home and might have even led to returning to the PCL, but the two sides have agreed to a two-year extension.

• Twins rookie-ball catcher Michael Quesada was suspended 50 games for violating the minor league drug prevention and treatment program by testing positive for Methylhexaneamine, a stimulant and dietary supplement. Quesada was a 10th-round draft pick out of Sierra College in 2010, but has hit just .213/.314/.333 with three homers in 62 career games while remaining in rookie-ball as a 22-year-old.

Denard Span injured his shoulder on August 12. Nine days later he remains "day-to-day" and on the active roster despite being unavailable to play for that entire time and finally underwent an MRI exam yesterday. At this point I'm not even sure what to say about the Twins' ongoing pattern of "day-to-day" injuries and disabled list avoidance, other than maybe "sigh."

• Only two MLB hitters with more than 375 plate appearances this season have zero homers: Jamey Carroll and Ben Revere.

• Four hitters in the Twins' entire organization, majors and minors, have drawn 60 or more walks this season: Joe Mauer, Josh Willingham, Miguel Sano, Aaron Hicks.

• Since becoming the primary closer Glen Perkins has converted 7-of-8 save chances with a 2.66 ERA and 24-to-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 24 innings. Before that he had two career saves.

• For a whole lot more about Blackburn and Hendriks, plus a pretty good puking-in-public story and comparing Sam Deduno to a UFO, check out this week's Gleeman and The Geek episode.

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August 14, 2012

When and where will Twins find room for Triple-A murderer Parmelee?

Not much about the Twins' handling of Chris Parmelee this season has made sense. Coming into the year he'd never played at Triple-A and had a measly .416 slugging percentage in 253 games at Double-A, yet they handed him an Opening Day job based on the small samples of his strong September call-up and good spring training. Parmelee struggled with the big jump, hitting .179 with zero homers and 21 strikeouts in 92 plate appearances through mid-May.

At that point they demoted him to Rochester for his first career taste of Triple-A, but then after just three weeks there the Twins recalled Parmelee to Minnesota even though there wasn't an obvious place for him to play regularly. And sure enough he spent the next month collecting dust on the bench, starting just four times and totaling 23 plate appearances in the span of 25 games before they demoted him back to Triple-A again.

They rushed a non-elite prospect to the majors by having him skip Triple-A, demoted him to the minors six weeks and 92 plate appearances later, and then called him up three weeks after that to spend a month on the bench. None of that seems like how you'd want to handle a young player and he's hit just .204/.283/.324 with a 28/9 K/BB ratio in 40 games for the Twins this season, but there is one big bright spot: Parmelee has been amazing at Triple-A.

In the low minors Parmelee showed excellent power and plate discipline, but struck out a ton with poor batting averages. As he moved up the organizational ladder the Twins tinkered with his approach for reduced strikeouts and a higher batting average, but Parmelee sacrificed power and plate discipline in the process. All of which is how he went from high-strikeout, low-average slugger at Single-A to hitting .282 with a .416 slugging percentage at Double-A.

However, in his first Triple-A action Parmelee has kept his strikeouts down and his average up while rediscovering the big-time power and patience. And the end result has been a beautiful .360/.471/.703 line with 15 homers, 14 doubles, and more walks (35) than strikeouts (31) in 47 games for Rochester, which is basically unheard of production. In fact, here are the highest OPS totals by Rochester hitters since the Red Wings became the Twins' affiliate in 2003:

                  YEAR      PA      OPS
CHRIS PARMELEE    2012     208    1.174
Trevor Plouffe    2011     220    1.019
Justin Morneau    2004     326     .992
Jason Kubel       2004     390     .958
Brian Buscher     2008     214     .915
Denard Span       2008     184     .915
Randy Ruiz        2008     456     .902

Parmelee is blowing away the competition with an OPS approaching 1.200 while the only other Rochester hitter to even top a 1.000 OPS since 2003 was Trevor Plouffe last year. Plouffe's mediocre production in the minors and early big-league struggles caused his prospect stock to drop until that monster 50-game stretch in Rochester completely changed his outlook, which sounds similar to Parmelee's story right down to both players being former first-round picks.

And while not as extreme, Denard Span also appears on the above list as another former first-round pick whose prospect stock waned until a great stretch at Triple-A in 2008 propelled him to the majors. Obviously none of that guarantees Parmelee will follow the Plouffe/Span path to MLB success, but whatever you thought of him before this season and whatever you thought of his poor showing with the Twins this year .360/.471/.703 is an opinion-changer.

I'd love to know how differently things may have played out for Parmelee if the Twins had simply sent him to Triple-A to begin the year and called him up after a strong half-season in Rochester, although even that scenario isn't without issues. Considering the Twins' record and his Triple-A performance Parmelee has certainly earned another call-up and regular playing time down the stretch, but where exactly does he play?

Parmelee's natural position is first base, but Justin Morneau is there. He's also played quite a bit of right field and a little bit of left field in the minors, but those spots are manned by Ben Revere and Josh Willingham. Joe Mauer and Ryan Doumit are splitting designated hitter, so there's no room for Parmelee at DH. And the logjam isn't just this season, as Mauer, Morneau, Willingham, Revere, and Doumit are signed for 2013 and all but Morneau are signed for 2014.

Presumably if the Twins thought enough of Parmelee this spring to hand him an Opening Day job despite modest production at Double-A and zero experience at Triple-A they'll still think enough of him next spring to want him playing regularly after crushing Triple-A pitching. In order for that to happen, however, they'll seemingly need to make a trade. Mauer isn't going anywhere, Revere presumably isn't either, and Doumit just signed a two-year extension.

Morneau is the obvious choice, as he plays Parmelee's primary position and is owed $14 million in the final season of his contract. Willingham would fetch more in return, but there's been no indication that the Twins are willing to part with the hugely productive slugger they signed to a three-year deal in December. They could also open a spot by trading Span and shifting Revere to center field, but Parmelee as an everyday corner outfielder could be ugly defensively.

Wherever and however, the Twins need to find a place in the 2013 lineup for Parmelee.

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August 9, 2012

Twins’ trade deadline inactivity forces fans to have faith

Last year's July 31 trade deadline came and went without the Twins making a deal, although on August 15 they sent Delmon Young to the Tigers for minor leaguers Lester Oliveros and Cole Nelson. This year they pulled the trigger on trading Francisco Liriano two days before the deadline, acquiring marginal prospects Eduardo Escobar and Pedro Hernandez from the White Sox, and then chose not to make further moves (except later dumping Danny Valencia).

Rarely do struggling teams avoid trading any veterans for long-term help, yet in back-to-back seasons the Twins reached the July 31 deadline with one of MLB's worst records and failed to acquire a single quality prospect. Last year's inactivity stemmed from the Twins misguidedly still believing they had a chance to get into contention, plus the knowledge that they were in line for draft pick compensation for impending free agents Michael Cuddyer and Jason Kubel.

This season there were no such illusions of contending, but Liriano was their only impending free agent with any sort of trade value and the Twins felt the time wasn't right to deal players signed beyond 2012. It's unclear whether that means the Twins felt the time wasn't right because those players are part of the team's intended plan to contend in 2013 or because they simply hope to get more value for them this offseason, but either way they stood pat.

Aiming to contend in 2013 or waiting until the offseason to deal veterans lead to the same thing, which is not trading Josh Willingham, Denard Span, Justin Morneau, Jared Burton, and others by July 31, but the long-term impact of those scenarios are very different. If they held onto veterans believing they're close to consistently contending again that's "optimistic" without plans to add lots of free agent rotation help and further delays a much-needed rebuild.

However, if the Twins held onto veterans believing that players signed beyond the current season will have a stronger trade market in November than in July that's a calculated risk and certainly defensible. Morneau and Burton are both under team control for next season, Willingham is signed through 2014, and Span's contract runs through 2015, so not trading them by July 31 doesn't rule out eventually trading them.

Terry Ryan and company need to be right about that, of course, and there's definitely reason to be skeptical of Willingham or Burton ever having more trade value than they do right now. And if any team was offering to absorb Morneau's entire $14 million salary for next season and give the Twins any sort of quality prospect, that's a move worth jumping on immediately. Still, in theory at least there was no rush to part with players under team control past this season.

Ultimately it comes down to having faith in Ryan and the front office, first to realize the focus should be on finding young talent rather than trying to contend in 2013 and then to maximize their returns from trading the few veterans with value to other teams. If you have faith, the Twins' trade deadline inactivity shouldn't be troubling. If you don't have faith, the Twins missed an immediate opportunity to restock the farm system and dive headfirst into rebuilding mode.

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July 12, 2012

Who should the Twins be selling and for how much? (Part 2: Hitters)

With the league's second-worst record at 36-49 and an 11-game deficit in the AL Central at the All-Star break the Twins have made it clear that they should be sellers leading up to the July 31 trade deadline. Determining which players they should be willing to sell and how much they should expect to get in return is a more complicated question, so yesterday I broke down the pros and cons of pitchers potentially being shopped and today I'll do the same for hitters.


Denard Span, 28-year-old center fielder

Why trade him? He's a 28-year-old center fielder with solid defense, good on-base skills, and a reasonable contract that has him under team control through 2015. Ideally that would make him a building block, but it also potentially makes him the Twins' most valuable trade piece and if the reports about the Nationals' interest in Span last year at this time are any indication he's one of the organization's few veteran assets who would bring back a hefty return.

If it takes the Twins another two seasons to build a legitimate contender Span would be 31 years old at that point, with just one season and $9.5 million remaining on his contract, so the idea of building around him is somewhat flawed. Toss in Ben Revere's presence as an obvious center field replacement and there's certainly a strong argument to be made for Span having more value as a means to further the rebuilding effort than as part of the rebuilding effort.

Why not trade him? Just because Span might be over 30, expensive, and close to free agency by the time the Twins put a consistent winner on the field doesn't mean they're forced to trade him now. It's possible his market will be even stronger this offseason or leading up to next year's trade deadline. And while Revere has played well there are still questions about him as an everyday center fielder and leadoff man. If they trade Span they need to get great value.


Josh Willingham, 33-year-old left fielder

Why trade him? It seems odd that teams would be willing to give up significant value to trade for Willingham now when they could have simply out-bid the Twins to sign him as reasonably priced free agent this offseason, but that appears to be the case. Willingham is 33 years old, has yet to spend any time on the disabled list after a career filled with minor injuries, and is hitting better than ever, so his perceived value may very well be at an all-time high.

His value to the Twins shouldn't be overlooked since his deal runs through 2014, but as much as I loved the signing at the time it would be a nifty trick to bring in a 33-year-old free agent without forfeiting a draft pick, pay him a modest salary for a great half-season, and then flip him for a quality prospect or two. It's not crazy to imagine the prospects and $14 million saved having more value to a rebuilding team than Willingham's age-34 and age-35 seasons.

Why not trade him? From a "players are also people" standpoint trading him six months into a three-year deal would probably ruffle some feathers and potentially cause future free agents to think twice about coming to Minnesota. And while Willingham is old, injury prone, and unlikely to maintain his current level of production he's been a damn good hitter for entire career, fits Target Field perfectly, and should maintain substantial trade value past July 31.


Justin Morneau, 31-year-old first baseman

Why trade him? Aside from a short disabled list stint due to soreness in his surgically repaired wrist Morneau has been mostly healthy and his lack of concussion-related issues is especially encouraging, but he's been a shell of his former. Dating back to the concussion on July 7, 2010 he's hit .236/.298/.386 with 15 homers in 134 games, although he's at least shown signs of life this season with some hot streaks and vintage production versus righties.

Morneau has hit .313/.389/.571 off righties, but his overall numbers are below average for a first baseman thanks to a putrid .124/.160/.202 mark and 27-to-4 strikeout-to-walk ratio off lefties. Contenders in need of left-handed thump may still be interested in gambling on a former MVP and with 2013 being the final season of his six-year, $80 million contract the Twins will likely have moved on from Morneau in 2014 whether he's traded or leaves as a free agent.

Why not trade him? Even if teams are willing to take on the $14 million Morneau is owed next season it's unlikely they'd be desperate enough to do that and give up a decent prospect for a 31-year-old first baseman hitting .246/.312/.440 after missing most of the past two seasons with serious injuries. Simply unloading his salary would have value, but if the Twins believe he's still capable of big-time pop then moving him at next year's deadline is more appealing.


Jamey Carroll, 38-year-old second baseman

Why trade him? Carroll's defensive versatility, solid glove, and excellent on-base skills have been as advertised at age 38, but unfortunately so has his lack of power and he's hitting just .234 after four straight seasons above .275. Some of that can be blamed on a .272 batting average on balls in play that's 50 points below his career norm and with a little better luck he's still a very passable stop-gap starter at second base, third base, or even shortstop.

There isn't really a strong need for that on a rebuilding team even if his continued presence won't be a bad thing, but contenders looking to plug an infield hole cheaply could give Carroll a look and he'd fit on plenty of teams as a utility man. Whether teams view him as a starter or a utility man obviously the Twins aren't going to get much for a 38-year-old hitting .234/.318/.278, but clearing his $3.75 million salary from next season's books would have some value.

Why not trade him? It'd be one thing to dump Carroll if his departure cleared room for a top middle prospect ready for an extended opportunity, but as usual the Twins are short on those. Brian Dozier's arrival in the majors already pushed Carroll from shortstop to second base two months ago, 2011 first-round pick Levi Michael is struggling at high Single-A, and the rest of the middle infield cupboard is bare. Dumping him just to dump him wouldn't accomplish much.


Danny Valencia, 27-year-old third baseman

Why trade him? Valencia earned his mid-May demotion to Triple-A by playing horribly on both sides of the ball and has since been equally terrible in Rochester, hitting .244/.281/.404 with a 34-to-11 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 55 games. That alone is more than enough to push him out of the Twins' plans and whatever slim chance he had of reclaiming the starting job at third base has vanished with each Trevor Plouffe homer.

He's not as awful as he looked this season, but as a 27-year-old career .263/.303/.391 hitter in the majors and .275/.310/.418 hitter at Triple-A there's little to suggest Valencia has any kind of offensive upside worth waiting for and he's never been much of a defender. It would be delusional to think the Twins could get more than a marginal prospect in return for Valencia, but if a team thinks he'd benefit from a change of scenery they should pull the trigger.

Why not trade him? If you set aside the back story and failure to meet inflated expectations to simply focus on Valencia's skill set he'd have some value as a part-time player. Valencia has flailed away against right-handers, but he's a career .325/.374/.485 hitter versus left-handers and won't top a minimum salary until at least 2015. That makes him useful enough as a cheap platoon player and backup third baseman/first baseman to keep around if there's zero market.


Alexi Casilla, 27-year-old second baseman

Why trade him? Much like Luis Rivas before him Casilla has gone from young and supposedly promising to 27 years old and simply not very good, all while the Twins waited and waited for an upside based more on faith than evidence. They've invested six seasons and more than 1,600 plate appearances into the notion that Casilla is capable of being a quality everyday second baseman, but he's a career .250/.306/.333 hitter who's shown zero signs of improving.

This year he went from Opening Day second baseman to little-used utility man despite being paid $1.4 million and it's tough to imagine the Twins retaining Casilla for a third and final year of arbitration at a similar price. It's possible, however, that another team still believes in his speed and athleticism, so if he's not playing now and he's not in the Twins' plans for 2013 and beyond trading Casilla for even a marginal prospect would beat non-tendering him this winter.

Why not trade him? It's also possible every other team has given up on Casilla being more than a decent backup too, in which case he won't fetch anything via trade and the question is whether he's worth keeping around for 2013. I'd say no, in part since iffy defensive shortstops make poor utility men and in part because enough is enough, but if the Twins still aren't ready for a clean breakup at least $1.5 million or so wouldn't put much of a dent in the payroll.


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