AaronGleeman.com

Last month I examined the Twins' free agent pitching options by separating the potential targets into three categories: Top-of-the-rotation starters, middle-of-the-rotation starters, and back-of-the-rotation starters. Friday was the deadline for teams to tender 2013 contracts to arbitration-eligible players and the free agent class grew slightly as nearly 50 players were non-tendered, including the following starting pitchers.

• Jair Jurrjens - RHP - 48 innings - 6.89 ERA - 5.71 xFIP - 19/18 K/BB

Jurrjens had a ton of early success despite mediocre secondary stats, starting 115 games with a 3.40 ERA through age 25, but then he fell apart physically. Knee problems cost him the final two months of 2011 and his 2012 was a mess, as he got knocked around for a 6.89 ERA in 48 innings for the Braves and wasn't much better at Triple-A. Jurrjens is still just 27 and 18 months removed from being an All-Star, but his velocity and strikeout rate have plummeted.

• Tom Gorzelanny - LHP - 72 innings - 2.88 ERA - 4.21 xFIP - 62/30 K/BB

Gorzelanny spent this year in the Nationals' bullpen and had enough success as a reliever that he may want to stick there, but the 29-year-old left-hander was a starter previously and has a 4.61 ERA in 111 career starts. His control is spotty and his fastball tops out in the low-90s, but Gorzelanny has 8.3 strikeouts per nine innings in 46 starts dating back to 2009 and isn't totally helpless against right-handed hitters.

• John Lannan - LHP - 33 innings - 4.13 ERA - 4.70 xFIP - 17/14 K/BB

Lannan was a full-time member of the Nationals' rotation from 2008-2011, starting 122 games with a 4.00 ERA, and was awarded a $5 million salary for 2012 via arbitration. And then they sent him to Triple-A, where he spent the bulk of the season at age 27. Lannan's strikeout rate is among MLB's worst and his control is also sub par, but the soft-tossing left-hander induces tons of ground balls and that alone is enough to make him a viable back-of-the-rotation starter.

• Jeff Karstens - RHP - 91 innings - 3.97 ERA - 3.84 xFIP - 66/15 K/BB

Karstens bounced between the rotation and bullpen during five seasons with the Pirates, posting a 4.14 ERA in 82 starts. He was limited to 91 innings this year with shoulder and hip injuries, but had a 66-to-15 strikeout-to-walk ratio that included the best strikeout and walk rates of his career at age 29. Karstens is a pitch-to-contact, fly-ball righty with a high-80s fastball, but his control is very good and when healthy he's been an effective back-of-the-rotation starter.

• Mike Pelfrey - RHP - 20 innings - 2.29 ERA - 3.35 xFIP - 13/4 K/BB

After four straight seasons with 180-plus innings Pelfrey was shut down in April and underwent Tommy John elbow surgery in May, making the 29-year-old right-hander a big question mark for 2013. Pelfrey was the ninth overall pick in the 2005 draft and never quite developed as well as the Mets hoped, balancing poor strikeout and walk rates with lots of ground balls for a 4.36 ERA that's less impressive than it looks thanks to pitcher-friendly environments.

Twins starting pitchers combined for a 5.00 ERA during the past two seasons to rank dead last in the league and they head into the offseason with only Scott Diamond locked into a rotation spot. Terry Ryan has said he'd prefer to address the rotation via trades, which is no surprise for a team that's basically never pursued free agent pitching beyond bargain-bin shopping, but if they do decide to dive into the free agent pitching pool the water is reasonably deep.

In an effort to figure out the Twins' options I've separated the free agent pitching class into three categories: Top-of-the-rotation starters, middle-of-the-rotation starters, and back-of-the-rotation starters. Below are the back-of-the-rotation starters, which I view as a No. 4 or No. 5 starter on a contending team and a group the Twins hopefully won't be looking to overspend on in the name of simply adding veterans regardless of upside.

• Joe Saunders - LHP - 175 innings - 4.07 ERA - 4.25 xFIP - 112/39 K/BB

Kansas City saved the Twins from Jeremy Guthrie, but Saunders is a similar mix of durable mediocrity and lots of pitching to contact. Toss in the fact that he avoided getting knocked around in a pair of playoff starts and he's a name to watch as a potential overspend. Saunders would be a perfectly decent one-year pickup, but among the 113 starters with 500-plus innings since 2008 he's 104th in strikeout rate and 100th in xFIP, one spot ahead of Nick Blackburn.

• Scott Feldman - RHP - 124 innings - 5.09 ERA - 3.87 xFIP - 96/32 K/BB

Run support and luck allowed Feldman to win 17 games in 2009 despite a 4.08 ERA, but in three seasons since then he's been ineffective and injured with a 5.15 ERA in 297 innings. His secondary numbers this year were actually pretty good, but for a 6-foot-6 guy with above-average velocity he's never generated many strikeouts. And while he's done half his pitching in Texas' hitter-friendly ballpark Feldman's numbers on the road haven't been any better.

• Roberto Hernandez - RHP - 14 innings - 7.53 ERA - 5.39 xFIP - 2/3 K/BB

Formerly known as "Fausto Carmona" before getting busted for a false identity last winter, Hernandez missed the first four months and was then shut down after three starts with an ankle injury. Once upon a time Hernandez was a very promising young pitcher, but it turns out he was never actually all that young and since 2008 his ERA is 5.06. His ability to induce ground balls is intriguing, but Hernandez doesn't miss many bats and has always had awful control.

• Jeff Francis - LHP - 113 innings - 5.58 ERA - 4.07 xFIP - 76/22 K/BB

Francis broke into the big leagues throwing in the high-80s and the No. 9 overall pick in the 2002 draft had plenty of early success, but shoulder problems have left him working in the mid-80s and the results haven't been pretty. He's adapted by becoming an extreme strike-thrower, trailing only Cliff Lee for the best walk rate among left-handed starters since 2010, but there's very little upside attached to Francis at this point.

• Jason Marquis - RHP - 128 innings - 5.22 ERA - 4.03 xFIP - 91/42 K/BB

Marquis signed a one-year, $3 million deal with the Twins last offseason and was as bad as a pitcher can be, posting an 8.47 ERA with more walks than strikeouts. They released him after seven starts and Marquis quickly landed in San Diego, where he was the guy the Twins thought they were signing with a 4.05 ERA and 79/28 K/BB ratio in 94 innings before breaking his hand. I wasn't very enthused by the Marquis acquisition back then and suffice it to say a sequel is unlikely.

• Kevin Millwood - RHP - 161 innings - 4.25 ERA - 4.42 xFIP - 107/56 K/BB

Millwood is exactly the type of veteran, low-upside free agent pitcher the Twins have pursued in offseasons past. He looked finished after a terrible 2010, but has thrown 215 innings with a 4.18 ERA since then and at age 37 his strikeout rate remained reasonably close to his career norms. If he were one of the Twins' primary additions it would be a disastrous offseason, but as a cheap one-year stop gap at the back of the rotation Millwood wouldn't be the worst idea.

• Kevin Correia - RHP - 171 innings - 4.21 ERA - 4.34 xFIP - 89/46 K/BB

Correia was an All-Star in 2011, which is pretty funny considering he finished that season with a 4.79 ERA and has a 4.54 career mark. That includes a 4.49 ERA for the Pirates during the past two seasons and Correia's once-decent strikeout rate plummeted to 4.6 per nine innings over that span for the lowest rate in baseball among right-handed starters. He doesn't miss bats, doesn't induce a ton of ground balls, and doesn't have great control.

• Freddy Garcia - RHP - 107 innings - 5.20 ERA - 4.06 xFIP - 89/35 K/BB

After an excellent start to his career Garcia looked finished at age 31, but he's stuck around into his mid-30s by re-inventing himself as a slop-thrower. His fastball has averaged just 87 miles per hour during the past three seasons, yet over that span Garcia has a 4.42 ERA in 411 innings and his 7.5 strikeouts per nine innings this year was his highest rate since 2007. Much like Millwood he has zero upside, but as cheap stop-gap options go he'd fit as a fifth starter.

• Chris Young - RHP - 115 innings - 4.15 ERA - 5.36 xFIP - 80/36 K/BB

Young has basically never been healthy, topping 175 innings once in nine years, but after missing most of 2009-2011 he came back to make 20 decent starts for the Mets. His average fastball clocked in at 85 miles per hour, which doesn't fit his 6-foot-10 frame, but even at his peak Young worked in the high-80s. Despite all the injuries Young has a 3.79 career ERA and more upside than Millwood or Garcia, but that isn't really saying much and a fragile fifth starter isn't ideal.

• Carl Pavano - RHP - 63 innings - 6.00 ERA - 4.48 xFIP - 33/8 K/BB

Pavano tried to pitch through a shoulder injury with disastrous results, spent the final four months on the disabled list, and took some veiled shots at the Twins' medical staff on his way out the door. That doesn't necessarily rule out a return to Minnesota, but Pavano's velocity and strikeout rates were worrisome even before the arm problems derailed him and at age 36 he looks like a potential stop gap fifth starter at best.

• Carlos Zambrano - RHP - 132 innings - 4.49 ERA - 4.84 xFIP - 95/75 K/BB

It's hard to imagine Zambrano being worth the trouble at this point. He's still just 31 years old, but heavy workloads from early in his career mean it's an old 31 and Zambrano's velocity and strikeout rate are free falling. He issued a career-high 5.1 walks per nine innings and while that wildness may have helped him remain relatively tough to hit Zambrano had a 7.62 ERA with more walks (38) than strikeouts (27) in his final nine starts before a demotion to the bullpen.

• Derek Lowe - RHP - 143 innings - 5.11 ERA - 4.59 xFIP - 55/51 K/BB

Lowe has always been a pitch-to-contact, ground-ball guy, but his strikeout rate reached comically low levels at age 39. He was traded by the Braves, released by the Indians, and relegated to bullpen duties by the Yankees, so he's clearly running on fumes. However, he did still manage the second-highest ground-ball rate in all of baseball at 59 percent and that alone makes Lowe a potentially useful fifth starter if he's not totally washed up.

Twins starting pitchers combined for a 5.00 ERA during the past two seasons to rank dead last in the league and they head into the offseason with only Scott Diamond locked into a rotation spot. Terry Ryan has said he'd prefer to address the rotation via trades, which is no surprise for a team that's basically never pursued free agent pitching beyond bargain-bin shopping, but if they do decide to dive into the free agent pitching pool the water is reasonably deep.

In an effort to figure out the Twins' options I've separated the free agent pitching class into three categories: Top-of-the-rotation starters, middle-of-the-rotation starters, and back-of-the-rotation starters. Below are the middle-of-the-rotation starters, which I view as a No. 3 or No. 4 starter on a contending team and, for example, what Diamond seems likely to be long term if things go well and what new Cubs signee Scott Baker was before elbow surgery.

• Shaun Marcum - RHP - 124 innings - 3.70 ERA - 4.21 xFIP - 109/41 K/BB

Marcum never threw hard, but has topped out in the high-80s since returning from Tommy John surgery in 2010. Despite that he has a 3.62 ERA and above-average strikeout rate in 520 innings during that time, thanks largely to a great changeup. After staying mostly healthy in back-to-back seasons Marcum again had elbow issues in 2012, but he pitched well in September. He's a prototypical Twins pitcher and the injuries could drop Marcum into their price range.

• Brandon McCarthy - RHP - 111 innings - 3.24 ERA - 4.23 xFIP - 73/24 K/BB

A former top prospect repeatedly derailed by injuries, McCarthy finally got healthy and thrived for the A's before a second straight strong year was ruined by a line drive to the head on September 5 that led to brain surgery. Obviously his health is a serious question mark and McCarthy isn't as good as his numbers looked in pitcher-friendly Oakland, but he's a solid 28-year-old starter who fits the Twins' strike-throwing mold and is someone to root for on and off the field.

• Joe Blanton - RHP - 191 innings - 4.71 ERA - 3.39 xFIP - 166/34 K/BB

Blanton missed most of 2011 with an elbow injury and on the surface his return was ugly with a 4.71 ERA and 29 homers in 191 innings, but his secondary numbers were far better. Not only were his 7.8 strikeouts per nine innings a career-high, Blanton had the NL's second-best strikeout-to-walk ratio and his 3.39 xFIP ranked 16th in MLB. At age 31 he's not really a breakout candidate, but Blanton is a strike-thrower with more upside than his ERA suggests.

• Kyle Lohse - RHP - 211 innings - 2.86 ERA - 3.96 xFIP - 143/38 K/BB ratio

Lohse was his usual mediocre self for the first five years after the Twins traded him in 2006, posting a 4.66 ERA in 665 innings, but during the past two seasons he had a 3.11 ERA in 399 innings for the Cardinals while starting seven playoff games. At age 34 and with significantly less impressive secondary numbers Lohse is a good bet to be among the offseason's most overpaid free agents, but even if he were available cheaply a Twins reunion would never happen.

• Francisco Liriano - LHP - 157 innings - 5.34 ERA - 4.14 xFIP - 167/87 K/BB

Speaking of unlikely reunions, Liriano is a free agent after the Twins traded him to Chicago for a pair of non-prospects in July. He was the same occasionally dominant but mostly frustrating guy in Chicago, tossing 57 innings with a 5.40 ERA and rates of 9.2 strikeouts and 5.1 walks per nine innings. For the Twins he had a 5.31 ERA, 9.8 strikeouts, and 5.0 walks. At age 29 and with all those strikeouts Liriano has more upside than most on this list, but ... who knows.

• Brett Myers - RHP - 65 innings - 3.31 ERA - 3.92 xFIP - 41/15 K/BB

In both 2008 and this year Myers was shifted from the rotation to the bullpen and made a closer, with strong results, but he's also been a quality starter for most of his career. He has 247 starts with a 4.27 ERA and 7.2 strikeouts per nine innings, including a 3.79 ERA and 340/123 K/BB ratio in 440 innings between 2010 and 2011. As a fly-ball pitcher he struggles to limit homers, but Target Field would help that if the Twins are willing to bring in a not-so-wonderful person.

• Roy Oswalt - RHP - 59 innings - 5.80 ERA - 3.27 xFIP - 59/11 K/BB

Oswalt talked about retiring because of back problems, sat out the first two months before signing with the Rangers, and then got knocked around for a 5.80 ERA while being demoted to the bullpen. At age 35 he may simply be nearing the end of the line, but a 59-to-11 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 59 innings suggests Oswalt wasn't nearly as bad as his ERA. His velocity was the same as 2011, when he pitched well for the Phillies, and his track record is tough to beat.

• Carlos Villanueva - RHP - 125 innings - 4.16 ERA - 4.09 xFIP - 122/46 K/BB

Villanueva had a lot of success as a starter in the minors, but has spent most of his big-league career as a long reliever and has been mediocre when called on to make spot starts. He started 16 times for Toronto in 2012, struggling to keep the ball in the ballpark while posting a 4.50 ERA, but also had an 86-to-25 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 92 innings. If given a chance to build up his arm strength as a full-time starter at age 29 he could provide nice value.

• Erik Bedard - LHP - 126 innings - 5.01 ERA - 4.05 xFIP - 118/56 K/BB

He's basically never stayed healthy, has a reputation for being a pain in the ass, and posted a 5.01 ERA for the Pirates this year, but Bedard's superior secondary stats included 118 strikeouts in 126 innings. And during the previous five years his worst ERA was 3.76 and his worst strikeout rate was 7.8 per nine innings. I'd never invest big money or multiple years in Bedard, especially at age 34, but for the hope of 25 starts on a one-year deal he's got some bat-missing upside.

Twins starting pitchers combined for a 5.00 ERA during the past two seasons to rank dead last in the league and they head into the offseason with only Scott Diamond locked into a rotation spot. Terry Ryan has said he'd prefer to address the rotation via trades, which is no surprise for a team that's basically never pursued free agent pitching beyond bargain-bin shopping, but if they do decide to dive into the free agent pitching pool the water is reasonably deep.

In an effort to figure out the Twins' options I've separated the free agent pitching class into three categories: Top-of-the-rotation starters, middle-of-the-rotation starters, and back-of-the-rotation starters. First up are the top-of-the-rotation starters, which I view as a No. 1 or No. 2 starter on a contending team. By definition there are only around 40 of those guys across baseball, but a half-dozen of them are hitting the open market at the same time.

• Zack Greinke - RHP - 212 innings - 3.48 ERA - 3.22 xFIP - 200/54 K/BB

As a 29-year-old coming off an excellent season and the only true ace available Greinke should be way out of the Twins' price range even if perceived off-field issues cause some teams to shy away. Greinke won the Cy Young award in 2009 and in the three seasons since then he ranks among MLB's top 10 in strikeout rate and strikeout-to-walk ratio while placing fourth in xFIP behind only Cliff Lee, Roy Halladay, Adam Wainwright, and Felix Hernandez.

• Anibal Sanchez - RHP - 196 innings - 3.86 ERA - 3.60 xFIP - 167/48 K/BB

Sanchez recovered from multiple arm surgeries early in his career to throw at least 195 innings in each of the past three seasons and he's still just 28 years old. While not overpowering, Sanchez's above-average raw stuff produced 8.1 strikeouts per nine innings from 2010-2012 and he fared well for the Tigers after leaving the NL for the first time. Among all MLB starters since 2010 he's 26th in xFIP and 35th in ERA, which is a strong No. 2 starter.

• Dan Haren - RHP - 177 innings - 4.33 ERA - 4.00 xFIP - 142/38 K/BB

Haren has long been one of MLB's most underrated pitchers, posting a 3.48 ERA with fantastic strikeout-to-walk ratios from 2005-2011 and topping 200 innings every season. Back problems in 2012 limited him to 177 innings and a 4.33 ERA that's the worst of his career, with the Angels choosing a $3.5 million buyout instead of a $15.5 million option. If healthy Haren could be a major bargain and a fly-balling fit for Target Field, but at age 31 a long-term commitment is risky.

• Edwin Jackson - RHP - 190 innings - 4.03 ERA - 3.79 xFIP - 168/58 K/BB

After failing to land a huge contract as a free agent last offseason Jackson opted for a one-year, $11 million deal from the Nationals and hits the open market again sans qualifying offer. His numbers were similar to 2011, so I'm curious to see if the demand is higher this time. Jackson's overall production and strikeout rates have never quite matched his raw stuff, but he's started at least 30 games in six straight seasons despite being just 29 and ranks 36th in xFIP since 2010.

• Hiroki Kuroda - RHP - 220 innings - 3.32 ERA - 3.67 xFIP - 167/51 K/BB

Kuroda was billed as a mid-rotation starter when he came over from Japan in 2008, but he's pitched like an ace with a 3.48 ERA in 919 innings. That includes a 3.32 ERA and 167/51 K/BB ratio in 220 innings for the Yankees, transitioning smoothly from a pitcher-friendly NL ballpark to a hitter-friendly AL home at age 37. He likely has no interest in pitching for the Twins and after receiving a qualifying offer it's probably a moot point anyway.

• Ryan Dempster - RHP - 173 innings - 3.38 ERA - 3.77 xFIP - 153/52 K/BB

It was odd to see so many people buy into the notion of Dempster as an elite starter around the trade deadline. He had a pretty 2.25 ERA, but it was only 16 starts from a 35-year-old with a 4.09 ERA in the previous three years. Dempster was traded from the Cubs to the Rangers and came back down to earth with a 5.09 ERA in 12 starts. He's often pitched like a borderline No. 2 starter, but his velocity is trending in the wrong direction to feel good about a multi-year deal.