June 27, 2013

Who are the best old hitters in Twins history?

twins best old hitters

Last week I wrote about the best young hitters in Twins history, using OPS to highlight the most productive seasons by players at ages 20 (Butch Wynegar), 21 (Tom Brunansky), 22 (Kent Hrbek), 23 (Joe Mauer), 24 (Hrbek), and 25 (Harmon Killebrew). I'm going to focus on the other side of the age spectrum today, examining the best old hitters in Twins history. Let's start with the 35-year-olds ...


AGE 35              YEAR      PA      OPS
Kirby Puckett       1995     602     .894
Harmon Killebrew    1971     624     .850
Tony Oliva          1974     494     .739
Terry Steinbach     1997     489     .696
Vic Power           1963     578     .682
John Roseboro       1968     435     .611

Those are the only six 35-year-olds in Twins history to log 300 plate appearances, led by Kirby Puckett in the strike-shortened 1995 season. In what was his final season he hit .314/.379/.515 with 23 homers and 39 doubles in 137 games. Defensively he'd shifted to right field, but Puckett remained a force offensively with an OPS that was 60 points above his career mark. He smacked his most homers since 1988 and set career-highs with 56 walks and a .379 on-base percentage.

And adjusting for the offensive levels of the two eras Killebrew's age-35 season was arguably even more productive than Puckett's despite lower raw numbers. Puckett edged Killebrew by 44 points of OPS, but the league average was .771 in 1995 compared to .681 in 1971. Killebrew split time between third base and first base while hitting .254/.386/.464 for the league's 10th-best OPS and led the AL in both RBIs (119) and walks (114).

Tony Oliva joins Puckett and Killebrew as the only other Twins who were above average at 35, hitting .285/.325/.414 in league that hit just .258 with a .371 slugging percentage as a whole. Terry Steinbach was well below average while hitting .248/.302/.392 in 1997, but his modest .696 OPS was just slightly below the AL average for catchers and he caught 116 games in his first of three seasons with the Twins. Oh, and he doubled his career-high with six steals.


AGE 36              YEAR      PA      OPS
Harmon Killebrew    1972     532     .817
Tony Oliva          1975     515     .722
Terry Steinbach     1998     465     .720
John Roseboro       1969     406     .654

Only four 36-year-olds in Twins history topped 300 plate appearances and all of them were also on the age-35 list, led by Killebrew hitting .231/.367/.450 with 26 homers and 94 walks in 139 games. Those may not stand out as huge raw numbers, but in 1972 he ranked third in the league in both homers and walks while placing among the AL's top 10 in on-base percentage, slugging percentage, and OPS.

Just like the previous season Oliva remained a slightly above average bat, hitting .270/.344/.378 in a league that hit just .258/.328/.379 in 1975. Steinbach was actually better at 36 than he was at 35, upping his OPS by 25 points and catching 119 games. John Roseboro made his name with the Dodgers, but after a decade in Los Angeles he moved on to the Twins for two seasons and, like Steinbach, was remarkably durable for a mid-30s catcher.


AGE 37              YEAR      PA      OPS
Terry Steinbach     1999     380     .748
Harmon Killebrew    1973     290     .698

For the young hitters lists the cutoff was 300 plate appearances, but because there aren't nearly as many old hitters I've reduced the minimum to 200 plate appearances for age 37 and up. And even then Steinbach and Killebrew are the only 37-year-old regulars in Twins history. Steinbach again raised his OPS, going from .696 at 35 and .730 at 36 to .748 at 37. He wasn't as durable, but still started 96 games behind the plate and posted a career-high .358 on-base percentage.

Killebrew was a shell of his former self in 1973, as major knee problems limited him to 69 games and he managed just five homers, although he still walked 41 times and posted a .352 on-base percentage. Oliva fell too short on playing time in 1976 to make the list, but he played his final season at age 37 and was a below-average hitter for the only time in his career, struggling for 67 games before calling it quits.


AGE 38              YEAR      PA      OPS
Harmon Killebrew    1974     382     .672
Jamey Carroll       2012     537     .660

Killebrew is technically the most productive 38-year-old in team history, but it wasn't pretty. He was healthy enough to play 122 games in 1974, but hit just .222/.312/.360 with 12 homers in his final Twins season before moving on to the Royals for one last forgettable season. Meanwhile, in basically matching Killebrew's age-38 production Jamey Carroll set a career-high with 537 plate appearances and also drove in the most runs of his career.

Mike Redmond's limited action as a backup catcher keeps him from appearing on any of these lists, but he spent ages 34-38 with the Twins and hit .294/.337/.352 for them after turning 35. Only six players in Twins history logged more plate appearances than Redmond after age 35 and his .690 OPS is plenty solid for a catcher. In fact, Redmond's adjusted OPS+ was the exact same as Steinbach's post-35 mark.


AGE 39              YEAR      PA      OPS
Jim Thome           2010     340    1.039
Paul Molitor        1996     729     .858
Jim Dwyer           1989     254     .794
Otis Nixon          1998     500     .705

When the Twins signed Jim Thome for just $1.5 million in 2010 he was supposed to fill a limited role as a bench bat and occasional designated hitter, but instead he turned in one of the best age-39 seasons of all time. Thome hit .283/.412/.627 with 25 homers and 60 walks in 340 plate appearances for a 1.039 OPS that's the fourth-highest age-35 mark in MLB history, one spot ahead of Babe Ruth and trailing only Barry Bonds, Hank Aaron, and Ted Williams.

Not only is his 1.039 OPS in 2010 the best mark by any Twins hitter after age 35, no one else has even cracked .900. And regardless of age his 1.039 OPS in 2010 is the highest in Twins history for all hitters to play at least 100 games, with only Killebrew twice and Mauer and Rod Carew one apiece joining Thome in the 1.000 OPS/100 games club. Not bad for a guy who signed for $1.5 million and began the season behind Delmon Young in the line for playing time.

Thome's age-39 season is so amazing that it overshadows an incredible age-39 season by Paul Molitor, who batted .341 with a league-leading 225 hits in 1996. Molitor signed with the Twins after three seasons in Toronto and joined the 3,000-hit club in September, missing just one game while setting a career-high with 113 RBIs, tying a career-high with 41 doubles, and stealing 18 bases. Molitor is the only 39-year-old in MLB history to top 200 hits or 110 RBIs.

Otis Nixon looked 39 years old for his entire career and had one of his best seasons as an actual 39-year-old, hitting .297 with a .361 on-base percentage and 37 steals in 110 games during his one-season stay in Minnesota. Nixon broke his jaw in April when Royals shortstop Felix Martinez kicked him in the face during a double play, yet still managed the second-most steals in MLB history for a 39-year-old behind Rickey Henderson.


AGE 40              YEAR      PA      OPS
Jim Thome           2011     242     .827
Paul Molitor        1997     597     .786

Here's how ridiculous Thome's age-39 season was: He lost more than 200 points from his OPS the next year and still had one of the most productive age-40 seasons ever. Thome hit .243/.351/.476 with 12 homers in 240 plate appearances for an .827 OPS that tops the Twins' age-39 list ahead of his lone competition in Molitor. And then Thome was even better after being traded to the Indians in August, hitting .296/.390/.479 in 22 games back where his career started.

Molitor was also very good as a 40-year-old, hitting .305/.351/.435 in 135 games to join fellow Hall of Famers Ty Cobb, Sam Rice, Luke Appling, and Henderson as the only players in MLB history to bat .300 at age 40. Thome and Molitor are the only Twins to get regular playing time at 40 and the only other hitters in team history to see any sort of game action at 40 are Jim Dwyer, Ruben Sierra, and Elmer Valo, who combined to bat .179 in 144 trips to the plate.


AGE 41              YEAR      PA      OPS
Dave Winfield       1993     594     .767
Paul Molitor        1998     559     .718

Three seasons before Molitor notched his 3,000th hit in Minnesota fellow St. Paul native Dave Winfield signed with the Twins and did the same at age 41. And he was hardly just a novelty act, hitting .271/.325/.442 with 21 homers in 143 games in 1993. Winfield joins Williams, Bonds, and Darrell Evans as the only 41-year-olds with 20 homers. Molitor managed a nice-looking .281 batting average at age 41, but his .718 OPS in his final season was below the AL average of .771.


AGE 42              YEAR      PA      OPS
Dave Winfield       1994     328     .746

Winfield is the only hitter in Twins history to appear in a game at age 42 or older and he was still a decent hitter in 1994, batting .252/.321/.425 with 10 homers and 15 doubles in 77 games before the strike ended the season. Unfortunately he didn't call it quits during the strike, instead coming back in 1995 with the Indians and hitting .191 in 46 games to end a Hall of Fame career. Winfield has the ninth-most plate appearances in MLB history after turning 40 with 1,722.


This week's blog content is sponsored by Curt's Salsa, a locally owned salsa company that believes in fresh ingredients and rooting for the little guy. Please support them for supporting AG.com.

May 15, 2013

Twins Notes: Hicks, Arcia, Parmelee, Dozier, Mauer, and mock drafts

aaron hicks gatorade

Aaron Hicks got off to such a dreadful start that his overall numbers are going to look ugly for a long time--and maybe even the entire season--but there's no doubt he's putting together better plate appearances and getting better results. That all culminated with Monday's two-homer game and Hicks is now hitting .215/.333/.431 with three homers and a 15-to-12 strikeout-to-walk ratio in his last 22 games. Before that he was 2-for-43 (.047) with 20 strikeouts and three walks.

Since mid-April or so Hicks has been exactly the type of hitter that his minor-league track record suggested he would be, offsetting a low batting average with lots of walks and some power. Much has been made of Oswaldo Arcia's impressive start, and rightfully so, but since being recalled from Triple-A on April 20 he has an .839 OPS and Hicks has a .764 OPS. There are two rookies playing well offensively in the Twins' outfield right now.

Defensively has been another issue, however. Hicks was billed as a very good center fielder and has shown flashes of that, including robbing Adam Dunn of a homer along with hitting two of his own Monday, but overall he's been shaky with lots of bad reads and delayed reactions. Arcia was billed as a very good right fielder and actually played center field 77 times in the minors, which is almost impossible to believe while watching him stumble around struggling to make routine plays.

• Arcia's arrival initially cut into Ryan Doumit's playing time, but now that Doumit has broken out of his early slump Chris Parmelee is the one finding himself on the bench most often. Doumit or Parmelee is an interesting dilemma. Doumit is a switch-hitter, but since he's typically unproductive from the right side they might as well both be left-handed hitters. Doumit has a far superior track record and is signed through next season, but he's also 32 years old and Parmelee is 25.

In theory a team focused on 2013 should play Doumit and a team focused on the future should play Parmelee, but Doumit being signed for 2014 changes that a bit and the jury is very much still out on whether Parmelee is part of the future anyway. Parmelee had a great September debut in 2011 and crushed Triple-A pitching for two months last season, but he's hit .223/.292/.364 with eight homers and an 81-to-24 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 96 games for the Twins since 2012.

• In terms of age and lackluster performance Brian Dozier is similar to Parmelee, but the major difference is that the Twins don't have Arcia-caliber alternatives in the infield. I've been impressed by Dozier's defense at second base, but today is his 26th birthday and he's hit .230/.267/.324 with an 85-to-23 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 113 career games. He also hit just .232/.286/.337 in 48 games at Triple-A, so it's been a while since Dozier showed any sort of promise.

At the very least Dozier and his .267 career on-base percentage have no business in the leadoff spot, where the Twins have gotten a grotesque .189/.229/.233 line. That helps explain how Joe Mauer has just 13 RBIs despite batting .340 with 17 extra-base hits in 35 games. Jamey Carroll replacing Dozier at second base would likely improve the leadoff spot, but it's sort of a Parmelee-or-Doumit situation because Carroll is 39.

• Mauer has hit .319 with men on base, including .381 with runners in scoring position, but he's had a grand total of just 76 runners on base in his 157 plate appearances. By comparison Justin Morneau has had 126 runners on base in 149 plate appearances because he's got Mauer (.426 OBP) and Josh Willingham (.377 OBP) back-to-back in front of him. And batting Mauer second isn't really the issue, because in the third spot he'd just have two awful OBPs in front of him.

Mauer hit .366 in his first 17 games, then went into a career-worst 0-for-21 slump, and has now hit .431 with 10 doubles and 11 walks in 13 games since snapping his hitless streak. That works out to a .532 OBP and .628 slugging percentage. On this week's "Gleeman and The Geek" episode we talked about how odd it is for Mauer to be striking out so much, but his overall production is solidly above his career norms and he's also playing much better than last year defensively.

• Saturday night Vance Worley allowed five runs on 11 hits in 5.1 innings against the Orioles and got the win (Mauer, Morneau, and the Twins' lineup really got the win, but old stats die hard). In doing so Worley became just the seventh Twins pitcher in the Ron Gardenhire era (2002-2013) to win a game in which he allowed 11 or more hits:

Vance Worley      5/11/2013     Orioles
Nick Blackburn     5/4/2010     Tigers
Carlos Silva       5/9/2006     Rangers
Carlos Silva      4/29/2005     Angels
Carlos Silva       8/3/2004     Angels
Kyle Lohse         9/2/2003     Angels
Brad Radke        8/24/2002     Royals

Carlos Silva had 47 wins for the Twins and three of them came while allowing 11 or more hits, including a complete-game shutout in 2004. In all there have been 89 wins assigned to pitchers who allowed 11 or more hits in Twins history and Roger Erickson on June 25, 1978 is the only one to get fewer outs than Worley.

• On a related note, Twins pitchers have the fewest strikeouts in baseball with 204. No other team has fewer than 232 strikeouts and 14 teams have more than 300 strikeouts, including the Tigers with an MLB-leading 378. Breaking it down even further, Twins starters have 4.3 strikeouts per nine innings and Twins relievers have 8.0 strikeouts per nine innings, so the bullpen has actually been missing plenty of bats.

Glen Perkins and Jared Burton since the beginning of 2012:

                 IP      ERA     SO     BB     HR     OAVG
Glen Perkins     83     2.71     98     21      9     .216
Jared Burton     79     2.05     74     22      5     .190

I wish Gardenhire would use Perkins a little more in non-save situations, but knowing that duo is looming whenever the Twins have a lead after seven innings is pretty fun.

• With a .500 record through 36 games the Twins have dramatically out-performed expectations so far. Here's how 18-18 compares to their previous records through 36 games under Gardenhire:

2013   18-18
2012   10-26
2011   12-24
2010   22-14
2009   18-18
2008   19-17
2007   17-19
2006   17-19
2005   21-15
2004   22-14
2003   20-16
2002   22-14

During their run of six AL Central titles from 2002-2010 the Twins' average record after 36 games was 20-16 when they made the playoffs and 19-17 when they didn't. Either way, it sure beats the hell out of where they stood after 36 games in 2011 and 2012.

• Last night was the 34th time in 36 games that the Twins have been the gambling underdogs. If you'd have bet $100 on the Twins to win each game so far you'd be up $618, which is on pace for a $2,781 profit over the course of 162 games.

Jim Callis' first mock draft for Baseball America has the Twins taking Texas high school pitcher Kohl Stewart with the No. 4 pick. Callis also writes: "Rumors persist that Minnesota could cut a deal with Washington high school catcher Reese McGuire and spend heavily further down in the draft." Baseball America's current top-100 rankings have Stewart at No. 6 and McGuire at No. 12.

• Baltimore wants Alexi Casilla to give up switch-hitting even though his career numbers don't suggest it makes any sense.

• I love this picture of Hicks robbing Dunn of a homer.

John Bonnes was on vacation, so Parker Hageman stepped in as my co-host for this week's "Gleeman and The Geek" episode and we got super-nerdy with the hardcore Twins talk.


This week's blog content is sponsored by Ticket King, a local ticket broker that doesn't charge check-out fees, offers in-store pickup, and specializes in Twins tickets. Please support them for supporting AG.com.

January 16, 2013

Offseason outlook: Jamey Carroll

Signed to a two-year, $6.5 million contract last offseason to provide some much-needed middle infield stability, Jamey Carroll was more or less as advertised at age 38. He played sure-handed defense with decent range, worked deep counts and drew walks without striking out much, and moved all around the infield while starting 56 times at second base, 33 times at shortstop, and 28 times at third base.

Carroll got off to a slow start thanks largely to a low batting average on balls in play, but his luck evened out in the second half as he hit .315/.378/.371 in 58 games. Overall he batted .268 after hitting .285 during the previous four seasons, but thanks to 52 walks in 537 plate appearances Carroll still managed a .343 on-base percentage that topped Denard Span and Justin Morneau to rank third on the team behind Joe Mauer and Josh Willingham.

He joined Mauer and Willingham as three of the 22 hitters in the American League to see more than 4.0 pitches per plate appearance and joined Span and Ben Revere as three of the league's seven hitters to make contact on more than 90 percent of their swings. Carroll's ability to grind out long plate appearances and draw walks is particularly impressive considering his power was non-existent and pitchers threw him the third-most strikes in the league.

Carroll's complete lack of power was to be expected, as his lone homer of the season came on September 2 and snapped a streak of 1,540 plate appearances without a homer dating back to 2009. His modest RBI total of 40 actually set a new career-high and matched his combined RBI total in 924 plate appearances during the previous two seasons. His offensive value comes from getting on base and he did that remarkably well for a 38-year-old.

Defensively he began the year as the starting shortstop and looked perfectly capable there, but shifted to second base in May. That move was seemingly driven less by anything Carroll did and more by the Twins believing (wrongly, it turns out) that Brian Dozier was ready to thrive. Dozier was so unimpressive defensively that the Twins have apparently soured on him as a shortstop and he posted a .271 on-base percentage that was barely higher than Carroll's batting average.

Carroll is under contract for $3.75 million in 2013 and if the Twins decide against acquiring more infield help he figures to battle Dozier for the second base job during spring training. If he wins that battle or perhaps beats out Pedro Florimon for the shortstop job it'll be interesting to see how the Twins handle Carroll's playing time. Not only do 39-year-olds need regular days off, Carroll topping 401 plate appearances would trigger a $2 million player option for 2014.

In the history of baseball only 13 middle infielders have topped 400 plate appearances at age 39, but then again Carroll just became one of only 19 middle infielders to top 500 plate appearances at age 38. All of which means he's already aged significantly better than nearly every player like him for the past 100 years, but no one should be surprised if Carroll declines suddenly at some point. Until then he'll be a solid role player who can plug whichever infield hole is leaking most.

Other "offseason outlook" write-ups: Justin Morneau, Josh Willingham, Trevor Plouffe, Joe Mauer, Ryan Doumit, Brian Duensing

This week's blog content is sponsored by Seth Stohs' fifth annual "Minnesota Twins Prospect Handbook," which features 191 pages of content devoted to every key prospect, draft pick, and minor leaguer in the organization. Please support him for supporting AG.com.

September 6, 2012

Twins Notes: September call-ups, Dozier, Slama, Span, Parmelee, and AFL

• As of September 1 rosters can expand from 25 to as many as 40 players, but the Twins waited until September 4 to do so and then called up just two players: Eduardo Escobar and Luis Perdomo. Escobar is a light-hitting 23-year-old middle infielder who was acquired from the White Sox in the Francisco Liriano trade and hit just .217/.259/.304 with a 26-to-8 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 35 games at Triple-A following the deal.

Perdomo is a 28-year-old journeyman reliever who was signed as a minor-league free agent back in November and began this season at Double-A before moving up to Triple-A. Between the two levels he threw 73 innings with a 2.60 ERA and 68-to-22 strikeout-to-walk ratio, and Perdomo also got a five-game stint with the Twins earlier this season in which he walked seven in six innings. He throws hard, but has iffy control and a 4.07 career ERA at Triple-A.

• Apparently those are the only planned additions for the entire month, which means players on the 40-man roster not getting call-ups include Brian Dozier, Deolis Guerra, Jeff Manship, Pedro Hernandez, and Oswaldo Arcia. Dozier's lack of a call-up is the most surprising, because when the Twins demoted him to Triple-A last month the assumption was that he'd definitely be back once rosters expanded.

Instead he was a mess in Rochester, hitting just .171 with a 16/3 K/BB ratio in 20 games to continue the troubling lack of strike-zone control he showed in the majors. Combined between Triple-A and the majors Dozier hit .233 with a .276 on-base percentage and .334 slugging percentage while striking out 92 times compared to 30 walks. Plenty of prospects bounce back from a terrible season, but the difference with Dozier is that he's already 25 years old.

• And then there's Anthony Slama, who as usual posted amazing numbers at Triple-A and as usual is ignored by the Twins. Slama finished his fourth consecutive season in Rochester with a 1.24 ERA, .195 opponents' average, and 56 strikeouts in 36 innings, giving him a lifetime 2.27 ERA and 191 strikeouts in 154 innings at Triple-A. Slama is 28 years old, so whatever career he was capable of having has been wasted because the Twins wouldn't give him a chance.

For his minor-league career Slama has a 1.99 ERA and 12.4 strikeouts per nine innings, racking up more than twice as many strikeouts (446) as hits allowed (213) in 325 innings. Maybe he would have struggled against big-league hitters, but the Twins will never know because they repeatedly left Slama in the minors to rot. This year that involved giving Jeff Gray five months and 50 innings to show that his lengthy track record of mediocrity wasn't a fluke.

Denard Span was finally placed on the disabled list after staying on the Twins' active roster for 18 days with a shoulder injury that allowed him to play just four games during that time. Rather than another rant about the Twins' medical staff I'll focus on the fact that Span's injury opens the door for Chris Parmelee to get an extended opportunity down the stretch after mostly sitting on the bench for a month last time he was in the majors.

Parmelee certainly deserves a chance after hitting .338/.457/.645 with 17 homers, 17 doubles, and a 52-to-51 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 64 games at Triple-A, but as I wrote three weeks ago without a trade or an injury there wasn't anywhere for him to play. It's interesting that the Twins are using Parmelee in right field because he figures to be below average there and played zero innings in the outfield for Rochester.

• This year's Arizona Fall League participants are out and the Twins are sending Kyle Gibson, Michael Tonkin, Logan Darnell, Caleb Thielbar, Chris Herrmann, Nate Roberts, and Evan Bigley. Going to the AFL is a way for Gibson to get some work in after missing most of the season following last year's Tommy John surgery and a strong performance there could give him at least some chance to compete for a spot in the Twins' rotation next spring.

Gibson, Herrmann, and Roberts each cracked my list of the Twins' top 40 prospects heading into the season and Tonkin will definitely be on the 2013 list after breaking out between two levels of Single-A. This will be Herrmann's second trip to the AFL, as he was part of the Twins' contingent there last year along with Dozier, Aaron Hicks, Cole DeVries, Scott Diamond, Dakota Watts, Brett Jacobson, and Bruce Pugh.

Lester Oliveros pitched well enough in the minors this season to emerge as a bullpen option for 2013, but now the hard-throwing right-hander will likely miss all of next year after Tommy John elbow surgery. Acquired from the Tigers in last season's Delmon Young trade, Oliveros threw 48 innings with a 2.42 ERA and 51-to-15 strikeout-to-walk ratio between Double-A and Triple-A at age 24 and has (or at least had) a legitimate mid-90s fastball.

• As the Twins appear headed for another top-five draft pick it's worth noting that the 2013 draft class, much like the 2012 draft class, is viewed as lacking elite-level talent. Keith Law's early ESPN rankings include Mark Appel in the top spot after the Stanford right-hander fell to No. 8 and turned down $3.8 million to go back to school, followed by Arkansas right-hander Ryne Stanek, Stanford outfielder Austin Wilson, and Indiana State left-hander Sean Manaea.

• After bludgeoning the White Sox for 18 runs Tuesday night the Twins rank fourth among all MLB teams in games with double-digit runs scored this season, yet they rank just 13th in overall runs per game. When the Twins score double-digit runs they're 13-0. In all other games they're 43-81 while averaging 3.6 runs per game.

Jamey Carroll snapped the majors' longest homerless streak Monday, going deep off White Sox starter Hector Santiago for his first home run in 1,540 plate appearances dating back to August 9, 2009. In between Carroll long balls Jose Bautista led the majors with 134 homers, seven players homered at least 100 times, and 93 players homered at least 50 times.

Parker Hageman of Twins Daily used video and numbers to examine Joe Mauer's struggles throwing out runners this season.

Ben Revere is now hitting .300 with a .690 OPS, which would make him the first player since Lenny Randle in 1974 to hit .300 or higher with an OPS below .700. Aside from Revere and Randle no other .300 hitter has posted a sub-.700 OPS since 1943.

• In the comments section of my post last week about Darin Mastroianni's future several people wondered if he could be an option at second base after seeing some time there in the minors, but Ron Gardenhire has already shot that idea down pretty thoroughly.

• For a lot more about September call-ups, Dozier, Slama, and the Twins' medical staff check out this week's episode of Gleeman and The Geek (which is back to being fueled by beer).

Interested in sponsoring a week of AG.com? Click here for details.

July 12, 2012

Who should the Twins be selling and for how much? (Part 2: Hitters)

With the league's second-worst record at 36-49 and an 11-game deficit in the AL Central at the All-Star break the Twins have made it clear that they should be sellers leading up to the July 31 trade deadline. Determining which players they should be willing to sell and how much they should expect to get in return is a more complicated question, so yesterday I broke down the pros and cons of pitchers potentially being shopped and today I'll do the same for hitters.


Denard Span, 28-year-old center fielder

Why trade him? He's a 28-year-old center fielder with solid defense, good on-base skills, and a reasonable contract that has him under team control through 2015. Ideally that would make him a building block, but it also potentially makes him the Twins' most valuable trade piece and if the reports about the Nationals' interest in Span last year at this time are any indication he's one of the organization's few veteran assets who would bring back a hefty return.

If it takes the Twins another two seasons to build a legitimate contender Span would be 31 years old at that point, with just one season and $9.5 million remaining on his contract, so the idea of building around him is somewhat flawed. Toss in Ben Revere's presence as an obvious center field replacement and there's certainly a strong argument to be made for Span having more value as a means to further the rebuilding effort than as part of the rebuilding effort.

Why not trade him? Just because Span might be over 30, expensive, and close to free agency by the time the Twins put a consistent winner on the field doesn't mean they're forced to trade him now. It's possible his market will be even stronger this offseason or leading up to next year's trade deadline. And while Revere has played well there are still questions about him as an everyday center fielder and leadoff man. If they trade Span they need to get great value.


Josh Willingham, 33-year-old left fielder

Why trade him? It seems odd that teams would be willing to give up significant value to trade for Willingham now when they could have simply out-bid the Twins to sign him as reasonably priced free agent this offseason, but that appears to be the case. Willingham is 33 years old, has yet to spend any time on the disabled list after a career filled with minor injuries, and is hitting better than ever, so his perceived value may very well be at an all-time high.

His value to the Twins shouldn't be overlooked since his deal runs through 2014, but as much as I loved the signing at the time it would be a nifty trick to bring in a 33-year-old free agent without forfeiting a draft pick, pay him a modest salary for a great half-season, and then flip him for a quality prospect or two. It's not crazy to imagine the prospects and $14 million saved having more value to a rebuilding team than Willingham's age-34 and age-35 seasons.

Why not trade him? From a "players are also people" standpoint trading him six months into a three-year deal would probably ruffle some feathers and potentially cause future free agents to think twice about coming to Minnesota. And while Willingham is old, injury prone, and unlikely to maintain his current level of production he's been a damn good hitter for entire career, fits Target Field perfectly, and should maintain substantial trade value past July 31.


Justin Morneau, 31-year-old first baseman

Why trade him? Aside from a short disabled list stint due to soreness in his surgically repaired wrist Morneau has been mostly healthy and his lack of concussion-related issues is especially encouraging, but he's been a shell of his former. Dating back to the concussion on July 7, 2010 he's hit .236/.298/.386 with 15 homers in 134 games, although he's at least shown signs of life this season with some hot streaks and vintage production versus righties.

Morneau has hit .313/.389/.571 off righties, but his overall numbers are below average for a first baseman thanks to a putrid .124/.160/.202 mark and 27-to-4 strikeout-to-walk ratio off lefties. Contenders in need of left-handed thump may still be interested in gambling on a former MVP and with 2013 being the final season of his six-year, $80 million contract the Twins will likely have moved on from Morneau in 2014 whether he's traded or leaves as a free agent.

Why not trade him? Even if teams are willing to take on the $14 million Morneau is owed next season it's unlikely they'd be desperate enough to do that and give up a decent prospect for a 31-year-old first baseman hitting .246/.312/.440 after missing most of the past two seasons with serious injuries. Simply unloading his salary would have value, but if the Twins believe he's still capable of big-time pop then moving him at next year's deadline is more appealing.


Jamey Carroll, 38-year-old second baseman

Why trade him? Carroll's defensive versatility, solid glove, and excellent on-base skills have been as advertised at age 38, but unfortunately so has his lack of power and he's hitting just .234 after four straight seasons above .275. Some of that can be blamed on a .272 batting average on balls in play that's 50 points below his career norm and with a little better luck he's still a very passable stop-gap starter at second base, third base, or even shortstop.

There isn't really a strong need for that on a rebuilding team even if his continued presence won't be a bad thing, but contenders looking to plug an infield hole cheaply could give Carroll a look and he'd fit on plenty of teams as a utility man. Whether teams view him as a starter or a utility man obviously the Twins aren't going to get much for a 38-year-old hitting .234/.318/.278, but clearing his $3.75 million salary from next season's books would have some value.

Why not trade him? It'd be one thing to dump Carroll if his departure cleared room for a top middle prospect ready for an extended opportunity, but as usual the Twins are short on those. Brian Dozier's arrival in the majors already pushed Carroll from shortstop to second base two months ago, 2011 first-round pick Levi Michael is struggling at high Single-A, and the rest of the middle infield cupboard is bare. Dumping him just to dump him wouldn't accomplish much.


Danny Valencia, 27-year-old third baseman

Why trade him? Valencia earned his mid-May demotion to Triple-A by playing horribly on both sides of the ball and has since been equally terrible in Rochester, hitting .244/.281/.404 with a 34-to-11 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 55 games. That alone is more than enough to push him out of the Twins' plans and whatever slim chance he had of reclaiming the starting job at third base has vanished with each Trevor Plouffe homer.

He's not as awful as he looked this season, but as a 27-year-old career .263/.303/.391 hitter in the majors and .275/.310/.418 hitter at Triple-A there's little to suggest Valencia has any kind of offensive upside worth waiting for and he's never been much of a defender. It would be delusional to think the Twins could get more than a marginal prospect in return for Valencia, but if a team thinks he'd benefit from a change of scenery they should pull the trigger.

Why not trade him? If you set aside the back story and failure to meet inflated expectations to simply focus on Valencia's skill set he'd have some value as a part-time player. Valencia has flailed away against right-handers, but he's a career .325/.374/.485 hitter versus left-handers and won't top a minimum salary until at least 2015. That makes him useful enough as a cheap platoon player and backup third baseman/first baseman to keep around if there's zero market.


Alexi Casilla, 27-year-old second baseman

Why trade him? Much like Luis Rivas before him Casilla has gone from young and supposedly promising to 27 years old and simply not very good, all while the Twins waited and waited for an upside based more on faith than evidence. They've invested six seasons and more than 1,600 plate appearances into the notion that Casilla is capable of being a quality everyday second baseman, but he's a career .250/.306/.333 hitter who's shown zero signs of improving.

This year he went from Opening Day second baseman to little-used utility man despite being paid $1.4 million and it's tough to imagine the Twins retaining Casilla for a third and final year of arbitration at a similar price. It's possible, however, that another team still believes in his speed and athleticism, so if he's not playing now and he's not in the Twins' plans for 2013 and beyond trading Casilla for even a marginal prospect would beat non-tendering him this winter.

Why not trade him? It's also possible every other team has given up on Casilla being more than a decent backup too, in which case he won't fetch anything via trade and the question is whether he's worth keeping around for 2013. I'd say no, in part since iffy defensive shortstops make poor utility men and in part because enough is enough, but if the Twins still aren't ready for a clean breakup at least $1.5 million or so wouldn't put much of a dent in the payroll.


« Newer PostsOlder Posts »