February 26, 2014

Top 40 Twins Prospects of 2014: 40, 39, 38, 37, 36

Also in this series: 31-35.

40. Sean Gilmartin | Starter | DOB: 5/90 | Throws: Left | Trade: Braves

YEAR     LV      G     GS      ERA        IP       H     HR      SO     BB
2011     A-      5      5     2.53      21.1      18      3      30      2
2012     AA     20     20     3.54     119.1     111      9      86     26
         AAA     7      7     4.78      37.2      41      6      25     13
2013     AAA    17     17     5.74      91.0     112     12      65     33

Heading into the 2011 draft there was some talk of the Twins targeting Sean Gilmartin and as a soft-tossing college left-hander he certainly fit their longstanding drafting approach, but they picked 30th that year and the Braves took him two spots earlier. Three years later the Twins essentially acquired Gilmartin for nothing, getting him in the Ryan Doumit salary dump, which speaks to how far his prospect stock has dropped and how modest his upside was to begin with.

As you'd expect from an experienced college pitcher Gilmartin dominated in the low minors, but he managed just 6.5 strikeouts per nine innings in 20 starts at Double-A and then fell apart at Triple-A last year with a 5.74 ERA, .304 opponents' batting average, and 6.4 strikeouts per nine innings. Plenty of former first-round picks bounce back from struggles in the minors to thrive in the majors, but with a high-80s fastball Gilmartin doesn't seem like a good bet to be one of them.

On the other hand he's still just 23 years old and with only three pro seasons Gilmartin doesn't even require a 40-man roster spot yet, which no doubt played a part in the Twins asking for him in the deal. Gilmartin has had extreme splits in the minors--including an .859 OPS versus righties and a .635 OPS versus lefties last year--and could find a bullpen niche as a southpaw specialist. He's more "minor leaguer" than "prospect" at this point.

39. Dalton Hicks | First Base | DOB: 4/90 | Bats: Left | Draft: 2012-17

YEAR     LV      PA      AVG      OBP      SLG     HR    XBH     BB     SO
2012     RK+    136     .270     .382     .435      4     11     19     37
2013     A-     400     .297     .355     .497     13     44     34     85
         A+     176     .270     .364     .405      4     12     22     38

Dalton Hicks is a prime example of why looking at the right numbers--and perhaps even more importantly, putting those right numbers into proper context--plays such a key role in evaluating prospects. At first glance Hicks had an impressive 2013 season, hitting .290 with 110 RBIs, but despite being a 6-foot-5 first baseman he managed only 17 homers in 576 plate appearances along with a 123 strikeouts and a mediocre walk rate.

Beyond that Hicks was also old for the levels of competition, starting the season at low Single-A and ending it at high Single-A as a 23-year-old former college draft pick. Consider that Hicks and Byron Buxton both split time between Cedar Rapids and Fort Myers, yet Buxton is 44 months younger. Comparisons to Buxton will leave most minor leaguers looking like non-prospects, but of the 50 hitters in the Midwest League to log 400 plate appearances only one was older than 23.

RBIs don't mean much in terms of evaluating long-term upside, Hicks lacks ideal power for first base, and his strike-zone judgment was shaky even versus inexperienced pitching. None of which is to suggest that he's incapable of developing into a big leaguer, just that the odds are stacked against him for several reasons that take some digging to find. He'll likely begin this season at Double-A, which should determine whether Hicks is worth keeping an eye on.

38. Logan Darnell | Starter | DOB: 2/89 | Throws: Left | Draft: 2010-6

YEAR     LV      G     GS      ERA        IP       H     HR      SO     BB
2011     A-      6      6     3.78      33.1      24      1      24      8
         A+     15     15     4.17      86.1      95      6      46     25
         AA      5      5     5.58      30.2      38      3      20      4
2012     AA     28     28     5.08     156.0     193     22      98     47
2013     AA     15     15     2.61      96.2      96      4      77     23
        AAA     12     11     4.26      57.0      63      5      43     22

Logan Darnell looked like a non-prospect after struggling in each of his first two full pro seasons, but the 2010 sixth-round pick put himself on the Twins' radar with a nice year between Double-A and Triple-A. One of many University of Kentucky alums in the farm system, Darnell finished his solid 15-start run in New Britain with a complete-game shutout and then moved up to Rochester in late June.

He struggled a bit at Triple-A and allowed a .274 opponents' batting average overall last season, which matches his underwhelming raw stuff. Darnell throws in the low-90s with his fastball and the left-hander receives praise for the command of his off-speed pitches, but he's managed just 6.3 strikeouts per nine innings between Double-A and Triple-A. Darnell induces a good number of ground balls, but his control has been mediocre and at age 25 it's tough to see much upside.

However, the Twins liked what Darnell did last season enough to add him to the 40-man roster and that puts him in position to reach the majors at some point in 2014. Like most left-handers he's fared poorly versus right-handed hitters, potentially making the bullpen a long-term fit, but Darnell will probably get a chance to prove that he can stick as a back-of-the-rotation starter first. In the meantime he'll be in Rochester's rotation trying to build on a positive 2013.

37. Luke Bard | Reliever | DOB: 11/90 | Throws: Right | Draft: 2012-1

YEAR     LV      G     GS      ERA        IP       H     HR      SO     BB
2012     RK-     3      1     6.75       4.0       3      0       3      5
         RK+     4      0     0.00       3.0       2      0       4      2
2013     RK+     7      2     1.08       8.1       2      0       6      6

When the Twins drafted right-hander Luke Bard with the 42nd overall pick in 2012 they did so with the intention of seeing if he could convert from the bullpen to the rotation after starring as a college reliever at Georgia Tech. Instead they've had trouble simply getting him on the mound, period, as Bard has thrown a grand total of 19 innings in two pro seasons while missing time with elbow and shoulder injuries.

His final college season was also cut short by an injury, so Bard has done very little actual pitching recently and any notion of him moving quickly through the Twins' farm system has disappeared. None of which means Daniel Bard's younger brother should fall completely off the prospect map after being selected with the compensatory first-round pick the Twins received when Jason Kubel walked as a free agent and signed for $1.25 million.

When healthy Bard topped out in the mid-90s with his fastball and received praise for his breaking ball, which suggests the Twins might be better off ditching any idea of him holding up physically with a starter's workload and unleashing him an inning at a time out of bullpen. Either way, Bard simply needs to stay healthy this season and log significant innings against professional hitters, because he's already 23 years old and has yet to advance beyond rookie-ball.

36. Brian Navarreto | Catcher | DOB: 12/94 | Bats: Right | Draft: 2013-6

YEAR     LV      PA      AVG      OBP      SLG     HR    XBH     BB     SO
2013     RK-    158     .226     .318     .365      3     10     15     35

Based on skills alone Brian Navarreto may have gone 2-3 rounds higher in June's draft, but his involvement in an ugly on-field brawl likely dropped his stock enough for the Twins to snag the Florida high school catcher in the sixth round. Baseball America's pre-draft scouting report hinted at other "makeup questions" at play, but also touted his "man strength" at 6-foot-3 and 220 pounds while noting that he "has the physicality and arm strength to get scouts excited."

Navarreto signed for $262,500 and reported to the rookie-level Gulf Coast League, where he struggled in 42 games as an 18-year-old, hitting .226 with 35 strikeouts in 158 plate appearances. He did show some pop with 13 of his 31 hits going for extra bases and Navarreto drew a decent number of walks, but it certainly wasn't an impressive pro debut. Of course, high school catchers not named Joe Mauer tend to be projects.

Navarreto was one of three catchers the Twins drafted in the first nine rounds last year, between a pair of college backstops in third-rounder Stuart Turner and ninth-rounder Mitch Garver. They both figure to move much more quickly than Navarreto, but in terms of upside he's likely the best catching prospect in the farm system save for MLB-ready Josmil Pinto. This year, however, he'll probably spend the entire season in rookie-ball.

June 9, 2010

Twins’ draft is heavy on college arms and high school bats

After selecting Ohio State right-hander Alex Wimmers with the 21st overall pick Monday night, the Twins' draft continued yesterday with their now-standard mix of college pitchers and high school hitters. Second-round pick Cartier Goodrum was listed as a shortstop, but the Georgia high schooler is considered a near-lock to move to the outfield and also goes by the nickname Niko, which is a shame because "Cartier Goodrum" is an absolutely amazing name.

Raw and toolsy at a lanky 6-foot-3 and 175 pounds, Goodrum is a switch-hitter with what both Baseball America and MLB.com describe as "raw power" and trouble making consistent contact. I noted yesterday that Wimmers fit the Twins' preferred mold for pitchers as a college guy with better control and off-speed stuff than velocity, and as an athletic high schooler with far more tools than polish Goodrum fits their preferred mold for hitters equally well.

Going into the draft BA compared Boston College left-hander Pat Dean to Glen Perkins, so the Twins picking him in the third round may seem odd given how Perkins has fallen out of favor. Of course, Perkins was once a good college lefty and first rounder, so the comparison is meant as a compliment. Dean struggled with injuries this year, but is said to be healthy and works at 88-92 miles per hour with a good changeup and what BA calls "an excellent feel for pitching."

In the fourth round the Twins selected another high school outfielder in Eddie Rosario from Puerto Rico, who BA tabbed "the best pure hitter on the island" while comparing him to Bobby Abreu for his "sound approach at the plate" and solid left-handed bat. Hopefully he can follow in the footsteps of Angel Morales, who's emerged as a good prospect after the Twins picked him out of Puerto Rico in the third round back in 2007.

Breaking from the college pitcher/high school hitter approach, the Twins took college outfielder Nate Roberts in the fifth round. Roberts won Big South conference player of the year honors after hitting .416 with 19 homers and 36 steals in 56 games for High Point, leading the country in on-base percentage and runs scored, yet BA's very limited scouting report on him concluded with "lacks a standout tool."

Diving back into the college pitcher pool, the Twins took Kentucky left-hander Logan Darnell in the sixth round and San Diego right-hander Matt Hauser in the seventh round. Darnell moved from the bullpen to the rotation this year, but struggled and missed some time with shoulder problems. Darnell is a fastball-slider guy and BA suggests that he "profiles better as a reliever because ... his arm action and the effort in his delivery are better suited for shorter stints."

Hauser is another reliever, saving eight games with a 37-to-9 strikeout-to-walk ratio and 3.67 ERA in 42 innings as a senior. BA notes that he throws 88-92 mph with his fastball and "adds a nice slider and an excellent spilt-fingered fastball which acts as his change." Eighth-round pick Lance Ray is a first baseman who led Kentucky in batting average (.356), on-base percentage (.458), and slugging percentage (.720) while walking as many times as he struck out.

Maple Grove native and Gophers star Kyle Knudson was the Twins' ninth rounder as an all-Big Ten catcher who ranked among the conference's hitting leaders and threw out 40 percent of steal attempts. Some other picks with intriguing scouting reports and histories are high school bats J.D. Williams and Tyler Kuresa, college arms Steven Maxwell, Ryan O'Rourke, Thomas Girdwood, David Gutierrez, and Dallas Galant, and their first prep pitcher DeAndre Smelter.

All in all a pretty typical draft for the Twins, who as usual went heavy on college control artists and toolsy high school athletes. Every year I hope for a college middle infielder mixed in since that has long been an organizational weakness, but not surprisingly none fit that description. In terms of where this year's picks would rank among the Twins' top prospects it's really tough to say this early, but Wimmers would perhaps slot either before or after Ben Revere at No. 5.