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At first glance it looks like Alex Burnett took a big step forward in 2012, tossing 72 innings with a 3.52 ERA at age 24 after posting a 5.40 ERA in his first two seasons. Unfortunately a deeper look shows that his improvement was fueled almost entirely by an unsustainably low batting average on balls in play that masked a declining strikeout rate and poor control. Burnett didn't pitch well in 2012, he merely had a nice-looking ERA.

Burnett struck out 17.5 percent of the batters he faced as a rookie, but that dropped to 14.7 percent in 2011 and fell even further to 11.7 percent in 2012. To put his 2012 strikeout rate in some context, 166 different relievers threw at least 40 innings and Burnett tied for dead last with 4.5 strikeouts per nine innings. And he was tied for last with Jeff Gray, who spent most of the season alongside Burnett in the Twins' bullpen before being designated for assignment.

Burnett gets a solid number of ground balls and has made strides with his control, improving his yearly walks per nine innings from 4.3 to 3.7 to 3.3, but that's nowhere near enough to make up for such a pathetic strikeout rate. You'd think a young pitcher with a fastball that averaged 92.7 miles per hour, a mid-80s slider, and a changeup left over from his days as a starter couldn't help but miss some bats, but Burnett ranked 156th out of 166 relievers in swinging strikes.

It's worth noting that Burnett didn't move to the bullpen until 2009 and initially thrived at high Single-A and Double-A, but he was rushed to the majors in early 2010 to replace the injured Clay Condrey and never really got a chance to put together an impressive stretch at Triple-A. That less than ideal development and the fact that he's still just 25 years old makes it tough to totally write off Burnett, but nothing about his performance so far inspires much optimism.

Presumably his age, nice-looking ERA in 2012, and nearly three full seasons worth of experience in the majors will be enough to get Burnett an Opening Day bullpen spot, but he could easily pitch exactly as well as he did last season and see his ERA balloon back above 5.00. Without missing significantly more bats or vastly improving his control it's tough to see how Burnett can have long-term success as more than a middle reliever.

Other "offseason outlook" write-ups: Justin Morneau, Josh Willingham, Trevor Plouffe, Joe Mauer, Ryan Doumit, Brian Duensing, Jamey Carroll

This week's blog content is sponsored by Seth Stohs' fifth annual "Minnesota Twins Prospect Handbook," which features 191 pages of content devoted to every key prospect, draft pick, and minor leaguer in the organization. Please support him for supporting AG.com.

Signed to a two-year, $6.5 million contract last offseason to provide some much-needed middle infield stability, Jamey Carroll was more or less as advertised at age 38. He played sure-handed defense with decent range, worked deep counts and drew walks without striking out much, and moved all around the infield while starting 56 times at second base, 33 times at shortstop, and 28 times at third base.

Carroll got off to a slow start thanks largely to a low batting average on balls in play, but his luck evened out in the second half as he hit .315/.378/.371 in 58 games. Overall he batted .268 after hitting .285 during the previous four seasons, but thanks to 52 walks in 537 plate appearances Carroll still managed a .343 on-base percentage that topped Denard Span and Justin Morneau to rank third on the team behind Joe Mauer and Josh Willingham.

He joined Mauer and Willingham as three of the 22 hitters in the American League to see more than 4.0 pitches per plate appearance and joined Span and Ben Revere as three of the league's seven hitters to make contact on more than 90 percent of their swings. Carroll's ability to grind out long plate appearances and draw walks is particularly impressive considering his power was non-existent and pitchers threw him the third-most strikes in the league.

Carroll's complete lack of power was to be expected, as his lone homer of the season came on September 2 and snapped a streak of 1,540 plate appearances without a homer dating back to 2009. His modest RBI total of 40 actually set a new career-high and matched his combined RBI total in 924 plate appearances during the previous two seasons. His offensive value comes from getting on base and he did that remarkably well for a 38-year-old.

Defensively he began the year as the starting shortstop and looked perfectly capable there, but shifted to second base in May. That move was seemingly driven less by anything Carroll did and more by the Twins believing (wrongly, it turns out) that Brian Dozier was ready to thrive. Dozier was so unimpressive defensively that the Twins have apparently soured on him as a shortstop and he posted a .271 on-base percentage that was barely higher than Carroll's batting average.

Carroll is under contract for $3.75 million in 2013 and if the Twins decide against acquiring more infield help he figures to battle Dozier for the second base job during spring training. If he wins that battle or perhaps beats out Pedro Florimon for the shortstop job it'll be interesting to see how the Twins handle Carroll's playing time. Not only do 39-year-olds need regular days off, Carroll topping 401 plate appearances would trigger a $2 million player option for 2014.

In the history of baseball only 13 middle infielders have topped 400 plate appearances at age 39, but then again Carroll just became one of only 19 middle infielders to top 500 plate appearances at age 38. All of which means he's already aged significantly better than nearly every player like him for the past 100 years, but no one should be surprised if Carroll declines suddenly at some point. Until then he'll be a solid role player who can plug whichever infield hole is leaking most.

Other "offseason outlook" write-ups: Justin Morneau, Josh Willingham, Trevor Plouffe, Joe Mauer, Ryan Doumit, Brian Duensing

This week's blog content is sponsored by Seth Stohs' fifth annual "Minnesota Twins Prospect Handbook," which features 191 pages of content devoted to every key prospect, draft pick, and minor leaguer in the organization. Please support him for supporting AG.com.

Brian Duensing flopped as a full-time starter in 2011, posting a 5.23 ERA and .300 opponents' batting average in 28 starts, so the Twins moved him back to the bullpen and as usual he fared well. However, when injuries decimated the rotation Duensing was called on to start again and the results were worse than ever with a 6.92 ERA and .336 opponents' batting average in 11 outings. At this point it seems pretty safe to conclude that Duensing shouldn't be a starter.

He had some initial success starting in 2009 and 2010, but even those nice-looking ERAs weren't supported by strong secondary numbers and for his career Duensing now has a 4.57 ERA in 61 starts. As a starter he's averaged 5.9 strikeouts per nine innings while allowing opponents to hit .290 with a .455 slugging percentage. He simply doesn't have the raw stuff to miss bats or avoid big damage going multiple times through a lineup stacked with right-handed hitters.

As a reliever Duensing doesn't have to worry about facing the same hitter again and can also be spotted mostly versus lefties or at least to avoid righty sluggers. His strikeout rate as a reliever isn't any better than as a starter, but opponents have hit 55 points lower with 57 percent fewer homers. Even last year, as he was getting clobbered as a starter, Duensing allowed just one homer in 57 innings as a reliever and held opponents to a .236 batting average.

And there's no shame in that. Most successful relievers were failed or at least mediocre starters and in recent Twins history that includes Joe Nathan, Eddie Guardado, LaTroy Hawkins, Juan Rincon, Matt Guerrier, and J.C. Romero. Glen Perkins, whose emergence as the Twins' closer opens the door for Duensing to replace him as the primary left-handed setup man, was himself a struggling starter as recently as three years ago.

I'm not sold yet on Duensing as a late-inning setup man, in part because his raw stuff seems unlikely to make the sort of jump in velocity/sharpness that Perkins discovered, but he's proven capable of getting outs as a reliever and just as importantly has proven incapable of being more than a mediocre fifth starter. Given the Twins' obvious and oft-stated focus of overhauling the rotation, if Duensing starts games in 2013 something went very wrong.

Other "offseason outlook" write-ups: Justin Morneau, Josh Willingham, Trevor Plouffe, Joe Mauer, Ryan Doumit

Ryan Doumit missed half of 2011 with a broken ankle suffered on a collision at the plate and became a free agent when the Pirates declined his $7.25 million option. He'd spent seven seasons as Pittsburgh's primary catcher, consistently ranking among MLB's best hitters at the position, but poor defense and multiple significant injuries suppressed his market and made him available to the Twins on a modest one-year, $3 million deal.

Just as Josh Willingham essentially replaced Michael Cuddyer as a right-handed bat in the middle of the Twins' lineup, the switch-hitting Doumit replaced Jason Kubel's left-handed bat. Doumit's career numbers were very similar to Kubel's numbers with the Twins, with the added bonus that he could split time behind the plate with Joe Mauer whenever necessary and keep manager Ron Gardenhire from relying so heavily on Drew Butera.

And that's exactly how things worked out. Doumit hit .275/.320/.461 to basically duplicate both his career .271/.331/.442 mark with the Pirates and Kubel's career .271/.335/.459 mark with the Twins. Gardenhire almost immediately soured on the idea of Doumit as a regular outfielder, but he ended up starting 22 games in an outfield corner along with 56 games at catcher and 48 games at designated hitter. And without having to catch five times a week Doumit stayed healthy too.

What made Doumit a nice fit for the Twins is that his bat is good enough to be useful at DH and his glove is good enough to be useful at catcher, and he was such a nice fit that they signed him to a two-year, $7 million contract extension in late June. He's locked in as a regular for 2013 and 2014, but his position will depend largely on how often Mauer is catching and could also be tied to what happens with Justin Morneau and Willingham.

Doumit wasn't perfect, of course. His defense behind the plate wasn't as awful as his reputation suggested, but it certainly wasn't pretty. He also looked bad in the outfield, including a brutal three-error inning in left field. And while Doumit's overall production offensively was strong, he hit just .247/.287/.403 against left-handers to continue a career-long pattern of extreme platoon splits that takes some of the value out of his being a switch-hitter and everyday player.

As a soon-to-be 32-year-old with a lengthy injury history and more than 4,000 career innings logged behind the plate Doumit is also an obvious candidate to decline, but going from everyday catcher to part-time catcher helped him remain nearly injury free while setting career-highs in games (134) and plate appearances (538). Doumit's dual role defensively helped him as much as it helped the Twins.

One potential red flag within his otherwise solid production is Doumit's plate discipline and strike zone control. He whiffed 98 times compared to just 24 non-intentional walks overall, including an ugly 46-to-8 strikeout-to-walk ratio in the second half. No one noticed because he was hitting .264 with a .468 slugging percentage during that time, but an approach at the plate that results in eight walks over 263 plate appearances is something that eventually catches up to a hitter.

Doumit was worth more than $7 million in 2012 alone and also topped that value in 2007, 2008, and 2011, so $7 million for two years should be a bargain. Ideally he'd catch a little less and be on the bench versus left-handed pitching a little more, but either way having his .750-.800 OPS bat around to plug in wherever it's needed is one of the reasons why the Twins' lineup looks to be in good shape for 2013. And if the losses start piling up again Doumit could have trade value.

Other "offseason outlook" write-ups: Justin Morneau, Josh Willingham, Trevor Plouffe, Joe Mauer

This week's blog content is sponsored by Paul "Fantasy Camper" Bennett, who'll be blogging and tweeting about his annual experience at Twins fantasy camp in Fort Myers the week of January 6. Please support him for supporting AG.com.

Joe Mauer's uncertain health status caused the Twins to look for insurance behind the plate last offseason and they found a perfect fit in Ryan Doumit. Doumit was available cheaply as a free agent because, like Mauer, he was coming off an injury wrecked season, but by essentially using both players as part-time catchers and part-time designated hitters the Twins found a pairing that worked well for everyone involved.

Mauer made 72 starts at catcher and 42 at DH, plus 30 at first base. Doumit made 56 starts at catcher and 48 at DH, plus 22 in the outfield. And they both stayed healthy to set career-highs in games. Mauer got off to a slow start, but hit .337 in his final 110 games and took advantage of the reduced catching workload to hit .356 in September. Not bad for a guy who was regularly booed by a not insignificant portion of the home crowd at Target Field during the first half.

While those people were harping on last season's injury Mauer led the Twins in games and plate appearances. While those people were blaming the Twins' ineptitude on his $23 million salary Mauer's performance was worth $22.5 million according to Fan Graphs. While those people were focusing on his lack of power and supposed lack of clutch, Mauer nearly won his fourth batting title, led the league in on-base percentage, and hit .352 in "high-leverage" situations.

He'll forever be under-appreciated by people who still think homers and RBIs are the best way to judge a hitter, but Mauer's incredible ability to get on base enabled Josh Willingham (and Justin Morneau before him) to rack up huge RBI totals hitting behind him. And when Mauer came to the plate with runners on base he hit .346, including .372 with runners in scoring position, .397 with two outs and runners in scoring position, and .500 with the bases loaded.

Win Probability Added measures the actual in-game impact of hits and awards more value for, say, a game-tying solo homer in the ninth inning than a grand slam in a blowout. Mauer ranked seventh among AL hitters in Win Probability Added and Mike Trout was the only guy ahead of him who also played an up-the-middle position defensively. Mauer's singles, doubles, and walks made a huge impact based on actual game situations.

Mauer's lack of power certainly plays a part in his modest RBI totals, but he drove in 18.1 percent of the runners on base for his plate appearances. Not only did that rank eighth-highest in the entire league, it topped Willingham's mark of 16.3 percent. Mauer converted a higher percentage of his RBI chances than Willingham, but Willingham had 45 more runners on base in 26 fewer plate appearances because Mauer was on constantly in front of him.

Outs are an offense's most precious commodity and having runners on base drives scoring more than anything else, and Mauer is spectacular at avoiding outs and getting on base. If someone is unwilling or unable to recognize the value in those skills despite endless amounts of supporting research ... well, then that's on them at this point. It's time to stop placating the "yeah, but he doesn't hit homers!" subset and start appreciating Mauer for what he does so well.

Mauer has always walked a ton, but this season he walked more than ever before to rank fifth among AL hitters in walk rate. That's pretty remarkable considering Mauer saw the eighth-most fastballs in the league and hit just 10 homers, and speaks to his great eye and amazing patience. He swung at a lower percentage of pitches than anyone in the league and when he did swing only nine hitters made more contact. And only two hitters saw more pitches per plate appearance.

He also walked more than he struck out for the sixth time in seven seasons and was one of only two hitters in the league with more walks than strikeouts. And yet despite striking out less often than all but 20 hitters in the league Mauer's strikeout rate of 13.7 percent was a career-high and solidly above his lifetime mark of 10.7 percent. That could represent a change in approach due to aging or an attempt to add power, or it could just be a one-season fluctuation.

For the first time in his career Mauer pulled more than the half the balls he put in play, which would seemingly lend credence to the change in approach theory, although his line-drive rate, ground-ball rate, batting average on balls in play, and isolated power were all right around his norms. And his overall .319/.416/.446 line was very close to his .323/.403/.471 career mark even though offense was down across baseball. His adjusted OPS+ was seventh in the league.

Things weren't so pretty defensively, as Mauer struggled to throw out runners all season and finished with an abysmal caught-stealing rate of 14 percent. That's below the MLB average of 25 percent and miles from Mauer's career rate of 33 percent. Doumit and the normally impossible-to-run-on Drew Butera were also below average, so the pitching staff shares a big part of the blame, but Mauer threw out at least 26 percent in each of his first eight seasons.

Of course, the difference between 14 percent and 25 percent amounted to a grand total of seven extra steals under Mauer's watch. He also had lower passed ball and wild pitch rates than Doumit and Butera, so while Mauer's defense certainly wasn't good and definitely cost the Twins runs it only made a small dent in his overall contributions. Mauer ranked ninth among AL hitters in Wins Above Replacement, which factors in offense, defense, and positions played.

Mauer needs only to duplicate his 2012 performance to be worth his annual salary to the Twins and while that's no sure thing as he approaches age 30 he's produced at least $20 million in value in five of the past seven seasons. By re-signing Doumit the Twins can put together a similar catcher/DH split in 2013, although if his defense bounces back and he avoids the disabled list it wouldn't be surprising to see Mauer's workload behind the plate expand.

Other "offseason outlook" write-ups: Justin Morneau, Josh Willingham, Trevor Plouffe, Ryan Doumit

This week's blog content is sponsored by Paul Bennett, an Independent Certified Financial Planner Practitioner. Discover what he can do for you at PaulMBennett.com. And please support him for supporting AG.com.