January 24, 2013

Top 40 Twins Prospects of 2013: 40, 39, 38, 37, 36

Also in this series: 1-5, 6-10, 11-15, 16-20, 21-25, 26-30, 31-35.

40. Ryan Pressly | Reliever | DOB: 12/88 | Throws: Right | Rule 5: Red Sox

YEAR     LV      G     GS      ERA        IP       H     HR      SO     BB
2010     A-     26     24     3.72     113.2     110      9      96     43
2011     A+     26     26     4.50     130.0     125      9      72     53
2012     A+     20     12     6.28      76.0      86      9      61     26
         AA     14      0     2.93      27.2      23      2      21     10

Picking fourth in the annual Rule 5 draft the Twins selected Double-A right-hander Ryan Pressly from the Red Sox, who originally picked him out of a Texas high school in the 11th round of the 2008 draft. Pressly's numbers as a starter aren't pretty, but he shifted to the bullpen at Double-A in the second half last year and threw 28 innings with a 2.93 ERA and 21-to-10 strikeout-to-walk ratio. And then he thrived in the Arizona Fall League with an 18/1 K/BB ratio in 14 innings.

Rule 5 picks must stick in the majors all season or be offered back to their original team for half of the $50,000 selection fee, although teams can work out a side deal to get around that like the Twins and Braves did with Scott Diamond in 2011. Last winter the Twins touted Terry Doyle's performance in the Arizona Fall League after taking him from the White Sox with the second pick in the Rule 5 draft, only to let him go midway through spring training.

Doyle was a 26-year-old, low-velocity control pitcher, whereas Pressly is a 24-year-old with what Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com described in his Rule 5 preview as "a big arm that can fire fastballs in the mid-90s and ... an outstanding power curve." Of course, he's still a long shot to crack the Opening Day roster and at this point Pressly's resume includes 400 innings of mediocre pitching as a starter and 40 innings of good pitching as a reliever.

39. Eduardo Escobar | Shortstop | DOB: 1/89 | Bats: Switch | Trade: White Sox

YEAR     LV      PA      AVG      OBP      SLG     HR    XBH     BB     SO
2010     A+     408     .285     .327     .402      3     29     23     76
         AA     216     .262     .294     .376      3     14      9     35
2011     AAA    536     .266     .303     .354      4     31     27    104
2012     AAA    151     .217     .259     .304      1      7      8     26
         MLB    146     .214     .278     .260      0      5     11     31

Eduardo Escobar won the White Sox's utility infielder job out of spring training and collected dust on the bench until being traded to the Twins along with Pedro Hernandez for Francisco Liriano in August. Sent to Triple-A after the trade, he hit just .217/.259/.304 in 35 games for Rochester and then received a September call-up to Minnesota, where he hit just .227/.271/.227 in 14 games for the Twins.

In seven seasons as a minor leaguer Escobar has hit .267/.312/.348, including .255/.293/.343 in 167 games at Triple-A, so while he's still just 24 years old it's pretty safe to conclude that his defense will have to carry him. And it might, because Baseball America named Escobar the best defensive infielder in the White Sox's farm system for 2008, 2009, 2010, and 2011. Of course, even the slickest of fielders are destined for bench roles unless they can hit at least a little bit.

And so far at least it looks like Escobar can't hit, even a little bit. His power is non-existent, with a grand total of 15 homers in 2,700 plate appearances between the minors and majors, and both his plate discipline and strike zone control are severely lacking. Good-fielding middle infielders are hard enough to find that Escobar cracks this list despite those considerable flaws, with the hope that he's perhaps still capable of improving into "decent role player" territory.

38. Deolis Guerra | Reliever | DOB: 4/89 | Throws: Right | Trade: Mets

YEAR     LV      G     GS      ERA        IP       H     HR      SO     BB
2010     AA     19     19     6.24     102.1     127     14      67     37
         AAA     5      4     6.84      25.0      35      5      18      8
2011     AA     37     10     5.59      95.0     102     11      95     28
2012     AA      7      0     0.71      12.2       5      0      15      1
         AAA    29      0     4.87      57.1      59      7      56     21

Deolis Guerra is the Twins' last chance to squeeze more value out of the Johan Santana trade and at age 24 he remains in the organization after being dropped from the 40-man roster and passed through waivers unclaimed in November. When the Twins acquired Guerra from the Mets he was an 18-year-old starter and consensus top-50 prospect, but after years of struggling he shifted to the bullpen full time in the middle of last season

Guerra pitched very well as a reliever at Double-A down the stretch in 2011 and continued to thrive back in New Britain last year, earning a promotion to Triple-A in late April. His secondary numbers were solid in Rochester with a 56-to-21 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 57 innings, but Guerra served up seven homers on the way to posting a 4.87 ERA. He also missed some time with injuries and was bypassed for a September call-up despite then being on the 40-man roster.

Guerra no longer has much upside and has lost velocity since his teenage peak, but since moving to the bullpen his performance has been promising enough to suggest he can be a useful reliever. During the past one-and-a-half seasons he's thrown 124 innings out of the bullpen with a 3.56 ERA and 136-to-35 strikeout-to-walk ratio between Double-A and Triple-A, but he'll face an uphill climb to crack a Twins bullpen that appears pretty well set for 2013.

37. Josmil Pinto | Catcher | DOB: 3/89 | Bats: Right | Sign: Venezuela

YEAR     LV      PA      AVG      OBP      SLG     HR    XBH     BB     SO
2010     A-     392     .225     .295     .378     10     32     32     67
2011     A+     236     .262     .305     .389      5     17     12     36
2012     A+     393     .295     .361     .473     12     36     39     63
         AA      52     .298     .365     .553      2      7      4     10

Josmil Pinto appeared on this list in 2010, ranking 36th after impressive rookie-ball production, but back-to-back seasons with a sub-.700 OPS at Single-A followed. He repeated high Single-A last year and bounced back in a big way, hitting .295/.361/.473 in 93 games while controlling the strike zone well, and then hit .298/.365/.553 in 12 games at Double-A to finish the season. That convinced the Twins to add Pinto to the 40-man roster in November.

His lack of high-minors experience, inconsistent track record, and uncertain future defensively made Pinto's addition somewhat surprising, but clearly the Twins think the 23-year-old from Venezuela has a chance to be an impact bat. And he'll probably need to be to have significant value, because despite good caught stealing numbers Pinto draws mixed reviews as a catcher and saw about half of his action last season at designated hitter.

Generally speaking a 23-year-old part-time catcher, part-time designated hitter with barely any time above Single-A and a career .266/.337/.427 line is a long shot to develop into a quality big leaguer, but Pinto has shown flashes of noteworthy potential. This season should provide a big test both offensively and defensively, and by this time next year odds are Pinto will either be at least a dozen spots higher on this list or no longer on the 40-man roster.

36. Alex Wimmers | Starter | DOB: 11/88 | Throws: Right | Draft: 2010-1

YEAR     LV      G     GS      ERA        IP       H     HR      SO     BB
2010     A+      4      4     0.57      15.2       6      0      23      5
2011     A+     12      4     4.20      40.2      28      5      39     22
2012     AA      1      1     4.15       4.1       6      1       3      2

What a shame. Alex Wimmers' fast track to the majors was derailed in early 2011 by extreme control problems, which he conquered enough to throw a seven-inning no-hitter in his final start of the season only to blow out his elbow one start into last year. On the Twins' advice Wimmers initially tried to avoid going under the knife, but that simply delayed Tommy John surgery until August and could mean he won't pitch at all in 2013.

Once upon a time Wimmers was a polished, strike-throwing right-hander who won back-to-back Big Ten conference pitcher of the year awards at Ohio State on the way to being the Twins' first-round pick in 2010, but between the Steve Blass/Rick Ankiel-like control problems and elbow injury he's now 24 years old and has appeared in one game above Single-A. His career totals consist of 63 innings in three pro seasons.

Even if Wimmers successfully returns from elbow surgery it's impossible to guess what type of pitcher he's capable of being at this point and he was never considered a high-upside arm to begin with. For both Wimmers and the Twins it would be nice if he could get back on track enough to re-emerge as a potential back-of-the-rotation starter, but we may have to wait until 2014 to find out if that's at all possible.

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September 19, 2012

Twins Notes: Herrmann, Mauer, Florimon, Dozier, and Cedar Rapids

• As part of September roster expansion the Twins called up just two players, Luis Perdomo and Eduardo Escobar, but injuries to Joe Mauer and Ryan Doumit left Drew Butera as the team's only healthy catcher and led to Chris Herrmann being added to the 40-man roster as a third call-up. Herrmann ranked 20th on my list of Twins prospects coming into this season and should hold a similar spot for next year after a solid Double-A campaign.

Herrmann hit .276/.350/.392 in 127 games for New Britain, nearly matching his .264/.357/.382 career line and showing his usual on-base skills, good strike-zone control, and modest power with 58 walks versus 89 strikeouts and 10 homers in 558 plate appearances. His performance at Double-A was nothing special, particularly for a 24-year-old repeating the level after playing 97 games there in 2011, but Herrmann likely has a big-league future beyond this month.

How long and in which role that future will be depends largely on his defense behind the plate, as Herrmann was an outfielder at the University of Miami before moving to catcher at high Single-A in 2010. This season he played 83 games at catcher compared to 43 games between left field and designated hitter. His defense gets mixed reviews, but Herrmann threw out 44 percent of steal attempts this year and 38 percent in 2011.

Another issue for Herrmann is that he's a left-handed hitter hoping to become the third catcher behind a left-handed hitter in Mauer and a switch-hitter who swings better from the left side in Doumit. That makes Herrmann less than an ideal fit, although his ability to play other positions should be handy and it's not as if Butera's offensive ineptitude coming from the right side helps anyway. Herrmann is likely Triple-A bound next year, but he's shooting for Butera's job.

Rene Rivera, a journeyman catcher who played 45 games for the Twins last year, indicated via Twitter that he was upset about being passed over for the call-up in favor of Herrmann:

I guess I should not expect promises to be kept. Best of luck to everyone. #Disappointed #Lies

Rivera later tried to put that toothpaste back in the tube, tweeting that he never mentioned the Twins and various other damage control, but there seemingly isn't a whole lot of nuance or need for interpretation in his original words. I have no idea what was or wasn't promised, but based on performance alone Rivera didn't warrant more time in the majors. He's a 29-year-old career .193 hitter in the majors and hit .226/.307/.385 at Triple-A this year.

• After going 3-for-4 with two walks last night Mauer is now hitting .325 with a league-leading .419 on-base percentage, which is remarkable considering he was hitting .265 on May 18. Here's a list of all the players in Twins history with an on-base percentage of .410 or higher:

                    YEAR      OBP
Joe Mauer           2012     .419
Joe Mauer           2009     .444
Joe Mauer           2008     .413
Joe Mauer           2006     .429
Chuck Knoblauch     1996     .448
Chuck Knoblauch     1995     .424
Rod Carew           1978     .411
Rod Carew           1977     .449
Rod Carew           1975     .421
Rod Carew           1974     .433
Rod Carew           1973     .411
Harmon Killebrew    1970     .411
Harmon Killebrew    1969     .427

And then there's also this: Mauer's current OPS? .877. Mauer's career OPS? .874.

Pedro Florimon looks good defensively at shortstop and can't hit, so Ron Gardenhire has predictably taking a liking to him immediately:

I'm very comfortable with him out there. We're not going to name a starting lineup [for 2013] or anything like right now, or even later, but I really like him out there. I think there are things he can get better at ... but I like him. I like the way he moves, I like the way he watches. He pays attention. He's got great hands.

Assistant general manager Rob Antony agreed about Florimon and also indicated that Brian Dozier's future may no longer be at shortstop:

Florimon has kind of made the plays and shown some of the range that you really like from a shortstop, that Dozier didn't necessarily do. So it might be a situation where we still think Dozier can be a good player, but he may end up being a second baseman instead of a shortstop.

While perhaps a surprise to the people who didn't know any better and bought into the misguided hype surrounding Dozier's arrival, his defense at shortstop has always been in question. Of course, for as bad as Dozier was offensively this year there's at least some reason to believe he's capable of being a decent hitter. The same is not really true of Florimon, who has hit .228/.284/.327 in the majors and .250/.318/.352 between Double-A and Triple-A.

According to Baseball-Reference.com the Twins' attendance is down 4,967 fans per game, which is a drop of 372,000 total fans compared to this same point last season. And that represents tickets sold rather than actual attendance, of course. Only the Astros have seen their attendance drop more than the Twins this year, no other team is down more than 3,400 fans per game, and across baseball overall attendance is up nearly 1,000 fans per game.

• In their last 324 games (two full 162-game seasons, basically) the Twins are 127-197 for a .392 winning percentage.

Josh Willingham became the fourth player in Twins history with 30-plus homers and 100-plus RBIs in a season, joining Harmon Killebrew (seven times), Justin Morneau (three), and Gary Gaetti (two). Overall the Twins now have 13 of the 665 total instances of a hitter reaching 30-100 since 1961. By comparison, Alex Rodriguez has 14 seasons with 30-100 all by himself.

• After eight years with Beloit as their low Single-A affiliate the Twins have switched their Midwest League team to Cedar Rapids, which offers better facilities in addition to being closer to Minnesota.

Phil Miller of the Minneapolis Star Tribune does Twins updates for Baseball America and got an interesting quote on Tsuyoshi Nishioka from vice president of player personnel Mike Radcliff:

The player we all saw was not the player we scouted in Japan. For whatever reason, we haven't seen that guy. I mean, none of us believed that he wouldn't hit.

When the Twins spent $15 million to acquire Nishioka in December of 2010 he was coming off a batting title in Japan, but a deeper look at his numbers showed that the .346 average was due to unsustainable success on balls in play. However, even projections adjusting for that had Nishioka as a decent all-around hitter. Instead he's hit .215/.267/.236 for the Twins and .260/.318/.327 for Rochester. Radcliff is right, but sadly the Twins were very wrong.

• Twins prospects Miguel Sano and Oswaldo Arcia were both selected for Baseball America's minor league all-star team, which includes a total of 30 players.

• This year eight American League pitchers with at least 50 innings have posted an Expected Fielding Independent Pitching (xFIP) worse than 5.00. Three of them are Twins: Jeff Gray, Nick Blackburn, Alex Burnett.

• Perdomo, who the Twins called up while leaving Anthony Slama and his consistently great numbers to rot in the minors, now has a 5.06 ERA and 10 walks in 10.2 innings this season.

• Complete list of players in Twins history with more plate appearances and a lower OPS than Alexi Casilla: Al Newman, Danny Thompson.

• Old friend Pat Neshek, who spent most of the past three seasons at Triple-A before being called up by Oakland three weeks ago, now has a 0.63 ERA in 17 appearances for the A's.

• Regarding the Twins' offseason plans John Shipley of the St. Paul Pioneer Press wrote that the free agent starting pitcher market "isn't deep." That jibes with some comments general manager Terry Ryan made previously, but on this week's Gleeman and The Geek episode we spent about 45 minutes breaking down the various free agent starters and found that to be anything but true. It's plenty deep, especially in the type of pitchers the Twins usually go after.

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August 29, 2012

Twins Notes: Morneau, Hendriks, Pavano, Sano, Liriano, Mauer, and Battey

• Within the Los Angeles Times' story about the Dodgers-Red Sox blockbuster trade was this tidbit from beat reporter Dylan Hernandez:

A four-time All-Star first baseman, [Adrian] Gonzalez was the prize in the deal. The Dodgers inquired about him leading up to the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline and approached the Red Sox again after a failed attempt to land Minnesota Twins first baseman Justin Morneau last week.

Not shocking, as the Dodgers were also linked to Justin Morneau in July, but the notion of the Twins turning them down multiple times is certainly interesting. Morneau has been excellent since the All-Star break, hitting .320/.365/.523 in 39 games, but his overall production this season still qualifies as good but not great and his health remains an issue. Toss in the fact that he has one year and $14 million left on his contract and Morneau's trade value isn't great.

Or at least it shouldn't be, which makes me wonder if they should've jumped at the Dodgers' offer assuming it included any kind of decent prospect. Simply clearing Morneau's salary off the books for 2013 has value to the Twins, especially with Chris Parmelee waiting in the wings as a minimum-salaried replacement, and the Dodgers ended up sending a surprisingly strong package of players to the Red Sox for the right to take on $275 million in mostly bad contracts.

Given how the Dodgers are throwing around money it's not safe to assume their interest in Morneau and his contract guarantees similar interest from other teams, and now Los Angeles is no longer an option for a future deal. Obviously every Twins fan would love to see Morneau resume being an elite hitter, but $14 million would come in handy and letting him walk for nothing as a free agent in 15 months would be a missed opportunity.

Liam Hendriks came into Monday with an 0-8 record and 6.75 ERA in 13 career starts, threw a one-run complete game while allowing just three hits ... and lost 1-0 to Felix Hernandez. Setting aside the silliness of "wins" and "losses" for pitchers it was a very encouraging outing and it's nice to see the Twins giving Hendriks an opportunity to start every fifth day down the stretch following another good stint at Triple-A. At age 23 he maintains mid-rotation potential.

Carl Pavano has been ruled out for the season and--you may want to sit down for this--the Twins' medical staff apparently failed to properly diagnose his injury for three months before a second opinion found the source of the problem:

It's too bad it took three months diagnose that. I could have been resting. The good news is, it doesn't require surgery. I've had this in the past and gotten through it, and obviously I've pitched a lot since then. But as far as I'm concerned, this whole season has been a failure on many levels, for myself, for the team. It's just kind of lousy that it took this long.

Pavano went on to blame himself, rather than the Twins, but it's tough not to connect those dots after reading John Shipley's article in the St. Paul Pioneer Press.

Keith Law of ESPN.com recently stopped by Beloit to watch the Twins' low Single-A team and had some interesting observations about Miguel Sano. First, the good:

Sano has incredibly easy power, with a clean, rotational swing that generates most of its power from his hips and legs, a textbook example of how to make hard contact and drive the ball to all fields. His home run on Friday night went over the batter's eye in Beloit, which is 380 feet from home plate, and he drove two more balls to left without even squaring either up fully.

And now, the bad:

Sano's biggest drawback is his obvious disdain for the defensive side of the game. ... So while he has the arm and hands for [third base] now, the question of whether he'll outgrow the position is secondary to the question of whether he'll work enough to make third base a possibility.

Law also wrote up reports on Eddie Rosario, Kennys Vargas, and Taylor Rogers.

• Monday night Lew Ford started at designated hitter and batted fifth for the Orioles, going deep off White Sox starter Francisco Liriano for his first homer since 2007. What a world.

• Speaking of Liriano, since being traded to the White Sox he's started six games with a 4.26 ERA and 33-to-16 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 32 innings. Liriano has allowed two or fewer runs in five of those six starts and dating back to rejoining the Twins' rotation in May he's started 17 games with a 3.87 ERA, .211 opponents' batting average, and 112 strikeouts in 98 innings.

Joe Mauer passed Earl Battey for the most games caught in Twins history, which provides a good reason to remind everyone that Battey was a helluva player.

• While researching a future article about prospect development, I stumbled across this:

Mauer in the minors: .330 batting average, .406 on-base percentage, 1.2 walks per strikeout
Mauer in the majors: .322 batting average, .404 on-base percentage, 1.2 walks per strikeout

It's probably also worth noting that Mauer was done playing in the minors at age 20, played only 73 games above Single-A, and skipped Triple-A altogether.

Joe Benson's nightmare season now includes left knee surgery, along with a demotion from Triple-A to Double-A and a broken wrist. Coming into the year he looked just about ready to claim a starting job in the majors at age 24, but instead he hit .202/.288/.336 while missing half the season with injuries and never even got to Minnesota.

• Twins' record in their last 300 games: 117-183.

Chris Jaffe of The Hardball Times depressingly notes that all the recent losing has dropped the Twins' all-time record since moving to Minnesota below .500.

• Hundreds of players are placed on revocable waivers every August. Mauer is reportedly one of them. Probably isn't the first time. Probably won't be the last time. The end.

• I'm not sure what exactly is going on here with Mauer, but I watched it about 50 times.

• I went to last night's Twins-Mariners game (the weather was nice, at least), which means I was part of the smallest crowd in Target Field history.

• For a lot more about Morneau and Hendriks, check out this week's Gleeman and The Geek.

August 14, 2012

When and where will Twins find room for Triple-A murderer Parmelee?

Not much about the Twins' handling of Chris Parmelee this season has made sense. Coming into the year he'd never played at Triple-A and had a measly .416 slugging percentage in 253 games at Double-A, yet they handed him an Opening Day job based on the small samples of his strong September call-up and good spring training. Parmelee struggled with the big jump, hitting .179 with zero homers and 21 strikeouts in 92 plate appearances through mid-May.

At that point they demoted him to Rochester for his first career taste of Triple-A, but then after just three weeks there the Twins recalled Parmelee to Minnesota even though there wasn't an obvious place for him to play regularly. And sure enough he spent the next month collecting dust on the bench, starting just four times and totaling 23 plate appearances in the span of 25 games before they demoted him back to Triple-A again.

They rushed a non-elite prospect to the majors by having him skip Triple-A, demoted him to the minors six weeks and 92 plate appearances later, and then called him up three weeks after that to spend a month on the bench. None of that seems like how you'd want to handle a young player and he's hit just .204/.283/.324 with a 28/9 K/BB ratio in 40 games for the Twins this season, but there is one big bright spot: Parmelee has been amazing at Triple-A.

In the low minors Parmelee showed excellent power and plate discipline, but struck out a ton with poor batting averages. As he moved up the organizational ladder the Twins tinkered with his approach for reduced strikeouts and a higher batting average, but Parmelee sacrificed power and plate discipline in the process. All of which is how he went from high-strikeout, low-average slugger at Single-A to hitting .282 with a .416 slugging percentage at Double-A.

However, in his first Triple-A action Parmelee has kept his strikeouts down and his average up while rediscovering the big-time power and patience. And the end result has been a beautiful .360/.471/.703 line with 15 homers, 14 doubles, and more walks (35) than strikeouts (31) in 47 games for Rochester, which is basically unheard of production. In fact, here are the highest OPS totals by Rochester hitters since the Red Wings became the Twins' affiliate in 2003:

                  YEAR      PA      OPS
CHRIS PARMELEE    2012     208    1.174
Trevor Plouffe    2011     220    1.019
Justin Morneau    2004     326     .992
Jason Kubel       2004     390     .958
Brian Buscher     2008     214     .915
Denard Span       2008     184     .915
Randy Ruiz        2008     456     .902

Parmelee is blowing away the competition with an OPS approaching 1.200 while the only other Rochester hitter to even top a 1.000 OPS since 2003 was Trevor Plouffe last year. Plouffe's mediocre production in the minors and early big-league struggles caused his prospect stock to drop until that monster 50-game stretch in Rochester completely changed his outlook, which sounds similar to Parmelee's story right down to both players being former first-round picks.

And while not as extreme, Denard Span also appears on the above list as another former first-round pick whose prospect stock waned until a great stretch at Triple-A in 2008 propelled him to the majors. Obviously none of that guarantees Parmelee will follow the Plouffe/Span path to MLB success, but whatever you thought of him before this season and whatever you thought of his poor showing with the Twins this year .360/.471/.703 is an opinion-changer.

I'd love to know how differently things may have played out for Parmelee if the Twins had simply sent him to Triple-A to begin the year and called him up after a strong half-season in Rochester, although even that scenario isn't without issues. Considering the Twins' record and his Triple-A performance Parmelee has certainly earned another call-up and regular playing time down the stretch, but where exactly does he play?

Parmelee's natural position is first base, but Justin Morneau is there. He's also played quite a bit of right field and a little bit of left field in the minors, but those spots are manned by Ben Revere and Josh Willingham. Joe Mauer and Ryan Doumit are splitting designated hitter, so there's no room for Parmelee at DH. And the logjam isn't just this season, as Mauer, Morneau, Willingham, Revere, and Doumit are signed for 2013 and all but Morneau are signed for 2014.

Presumably if the Twins thought enough of Parmelee this spring to hand him an Opening Day job despite modest production at Double-A and zero experience at Triple-A they'll still think enough of him next spring to want him playing regularly after crushing Triple-A pitching. In order for that to happen, however, they'll seemingly need to make a trade. Mauer isn't going anywhere, Revere presumably isn't either, and Doumit just signed a two-year extension.

Morneau is the obvious choice, as he plays Parmelee's primary position and is owed $14 million in the final season of his contract. Willingham would fetch more in return, but there's been no indication that the Twins are willing to part with the hugely productive slugger they signed to a three-year deal in December. They could also open a spot by trading Span and shifting Revere to center field, but Parmelee as an everyday corner outfielder could be ugly defensively.

Wherever and however, the Twins need to find a place in the 2013 lineup for Parmelee.

This week's blog content is sponsored by Sky Spinner Press and EmilyMeier.com. Please support them for supporting AG.com.

August 7, 2012

Twins Notes: Valencia, Nishioka, Wimmers, Gibson, Plouffe, and Morneau

Trevor Plouffe's thumb injury and the lack of other decent, healthy infielders on the 40-man roster convinced the Twins to turn back to Danny Valencia despite his hitting .250/.289/.399 with a 40-to-15 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 69 games at Triple-A following his mid-May demotion. Plouffe remains on the disabled list, but after one week with Valencia the Twins decided they'd seen enough and traded him to the Red Sox for rookie-ball outfielder Jeremias Pineda.

Pineda's lofty .421 batting average looks pretty, but a month of Gulf Coast League action doesn't mean much and his 22-to-5 strikeout-to-walk ratio isn't particularly impressive from a 21-year-old competing against teenagers. He's fast and might some day develop into a decent prospect, but Pineda is little more than a toss-in right now. Make no mistake about it: Valencia was essentially given away by the Twins. And it's hard to blame them.

Valencia hit .311 with good defense in an 85-game debut in 2010, but his track record showed he was playing over his head on both sides of the ball. He came crashing back down to earth last season and then completely fell apart this year, making him a career .260/.301/.393 hitter in 1,062 plate appearances. Jason Tyner had a higher OPS as a Twin. Toss in poor defense at third base from a soon-to-be 28-year-old and Valencia just isn't a starting-caliber player.

He does potentially have some value as a backup third baseman/first baseman or platoon guy versus left-handers, against whom he's hit .318/.363/.472. Of course, since Plouffe is also a right-handed bat and it's hard to imagine Ron Gardenhire platooning Justin Morneau or even Chris Parmelee with Valencia at first base there wasn't going to be much room for a part-time role in Minnesota. He's a marginal player who wore out his welcome on and off the field.

Tsuyoshi Nishioka was even worse than Valencia in Rochester, hitting .245/.309/.301 in 84 games, yet he was called up to fill the roster spot and immediately thrown into the lineup at second base last night. It took literally one play for the ball to find Nishioka and for Nishioka to commit a brutal error, and then later he made a second error just for good measure, although he did manage to successfully turn a double play without getting his leg broken. Baby steps.

Nishioka has no business being in the majors--he was terrible for the Twins and overmatched at Triple-A--but he's making $3 million this season and is owed another $3 million next season. At some point perhaps they'll decide he's simply a sunk cost and move on, but in the meantime he'll get a chance to show any sort of offensive or defensive ability. It probably won't be pretty, but it's not as if Nishioka is blocking any promising middle infielders from playing time.

• In early May former first-round pick Alex Wimmers was diagnosed with a partially torn ulnar collateral elbow ligament and the Twins, as they've often done with injured pitchers, advised him to rest and rehab in attempt to avoid surgery. Rarely, if ever, has that accomplished anything but delaying the inevitable and pushing back the eventual recovery timetable, and sure enough after resting for three months Wimmers had Tommy John surgery last week.

He'll be sidelined for 12 months and because he waited until now to undergo surgery that means Wimmers may not pitch at all next season. Wimmers was said to be one of the most MLB-ready pitchers available when the Twins drafted him out of Ohio State with the 21st pick in 2010, but the combination of last season's extreme control problems and this year's elbow injury means he'll likely see his next game action in 2014 as a 25-year-old with 62 pro innings.

• Wimmers' story is depressingly similar to Kyle Gibson's story, as the 2009 first-round pick injured his elbow last July, was diagnosed with a partially torn ulnar collateral ligament in August, and underwent Tommy John surgery in September. And because of the delayed surgery Gibson is just now seeing game action again in rookie-ball, where both his raw stuff and results have been very encouraging so far.

When back-to-back first-round picks touted as close to MLB-ready need Tommy John surgery that helps explain how the Twins' pitching situation became so dire. Neither projected as aces, but things would have been much different had Gibson joined the rotation as a No. 3 starter in the middle of last season and Wimmers got the call-up as a No. 4 starter this year. That's bad luck, but as has far too often been the case the Twins' medical staff didn't help matters.

• Speaking of the medical staff, the aforementioned Plouffe is the latest player to miss significant time with a supposed "day-to-day" injury that the Twins initially didn't deem worthy of a DL stint. Plouffe hurt his thumb on July 20, remained on the active roster for a week without actually being available to play, and then finally went on the DL. And now he'll remain on the DL well beyond the minimum 15 days, which is an all-too-familiar story.

To invest hundreds of millions of dollars in the MLB roster and seven-team farm system only to frequently have "day-to-day" injuries turn into month-long absences, terrible performances attributed after the fact to playing through injuries, and surgeries delayed by half a season has to be maddening for ownership and the front office. And yet just like after last season the question is how much more of that needs to take place before substantial changes are made?

• One month ago Morneau was hitting .238/.306/.431. Since then he's hit .368/.413/.611 with five homers and eight doubles in 24 games, including a pair of homers last night. During that time Morneau reduced his strikeout rate from 20 percent to 9 percent and went from hitting under .100 versus lefties to hitting nearly .500 against them. He's up to .275/.335/.481 on the season, which is very close to his .280/.351/.495 career mark.

• FSN showed this stat last night and I had to double-check to make sure it was true. Sure enough Josh Willingham now has the most homers in baseball since July 29 of last season:

JOSH WILLINGHAM       45
Curtis Granderson     42
Ryan Braun            41
Josh Hamilton         41
Jose Bautista         39
Albert Pujols         38

During that year-plus span Willingham has played 161 total games, hitting .260/.365/.555 with 45 homers, 33 doubles, 82 walks, and 129 RBIs. Mercy.

Lester Oliveros, who made one appearance for the Twins in mid-June, will miss the rest of the season following surgery to remove bone chips from his elbow. Oliveros has a mid-90s fastball and logged 48 innings between Double-A and Triple-A with a 2.42 ERA and 51-to-15 strikeout-to-walk ratio, so if healthy the right-hander acquired from the Tigers in the Delmon Young trade could be an Opening Day bullpen option for 2013.

• I'm assuming anyone reading this blog understands Samuel Deduno's success isn't sustainable unless he makes major changes, but just in case: Pitchers with more walks than strikeouts don't stay in the majors for long, let alone maintain sub-3.00 ERAs, and as a 28-year-old journeyman with 5.1 walks per nine innings in the minors he's an unlikely candidate for sudden improvement. It sure is interesting to watch while it lasts, though.

• Thursday night Glen Perkins became the first Twins reliever since Craig Breslow in 2008 to pitch two or more innings while recording a save, which has happened a total of 11 times since Gardenhire took over as manager in 2002. On a related note Breslow, who pitched for the Red Sox against the Twins this weekend, has a 3.02 ERA in 235 innings since they misguidedly waived him in favor of Sean Henn in mid-2009.

Pat Neshek was traded from the Orioles to the A's and called up to Oakland after spending all season at Triple-A. Neshek struggled for the past two years following Tommy John surgery, but pitched like his old self in the minors with a 2.66 ERA and 49-to-7 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 44 innings and then struck out the side in his A's debut Friday. Oakland and Baltimore play in September, so a Neshek-Lew Ford matchup that would blow Twins fans' minds is possible.

Matthew Kory of Baseball Prospectus noticed that Francisco Liriano is all but certain to lead the Twins in strikeouts for the season with 109 despite being traded on July 28. Scott Diamond has the second-most with 62. In his 17 starts Liriano averaged 9.7 strikeouts per nine innings and the 10 other pitchers to start a game for the Twins this season have combined for 4.8 strikeouts per nine innings, including none above 6.3.

• While watching Friday night's game I wondered if Darin Mastroianni, Denard Span, and Ben Revere are the fastest (and maybe best defensive) outfield to start multiple games together in Twins history. Impossible to say for sure, but it's hard to imagine a group with more range. Other candidates from my lifetime include the "Soul Patrol" of Jacque Jones, Torii Hunter, and Matt Lawton or the World Series trio of Dan Gladden, Kirby Puckett, and Shane Mack.

Jamey Carroll, who's 38 years old and hitting .245 with zero home runs and a .292 slugging percentage, is five RBIs away from a new career-high.

• For a lot more (and some might even say too much) talk about Valencia, Nishioka, and the Twins' medical staff, listen to this week's Gleeman and The Geek episode.

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