June 30, 2015

Byron Buxton and the curse of the elite Twins prospect

Byron Buxton Twins injury

Byron Buxton is expected to miss six weeks after suffering a sprained thumb in his 10th game for the Twins, knocking out the team's best prospect less than two weeks into his MLB career and right when he'd gotten back on the track to stardom following an injury wrecked 2014. Buxton had a trio of significant health problems last year, missing three months with a wrist injury, suffering a season-ending concussion in August, and skipping the Arizona Fall League with a broken finger.

Now he's sidelined by a fourth injury at age 21, which is a shame because it robs Buxton of crucial development time and each physical problem also potentially lowers his upside by putting dents in his immense physical tools. Unfortunately that's nothing new for Twins prospects and in fact it has become the standard fate for the crown jewels of their farm system. Based on Baseball America's annual top-100 prospect rankings, here are the best Twins prospects since 2000:

1. Joe Mauer
2. Byron Buxton
3. Francisco Liriano
4. Justin Morneau
5. Miguel Sano
6. Michael Cuddyer
7. Jason Kubel

You can certainly quibble with the exact order--I went into more detail here--but those are the only seven Twins prospects to be ranked among MLB's overall top 20 at some point since 2000. Six of those seven prospects suffered significant injuries before reaching their peaks and five of those seven prospects suffered significant injuries in the minors or in their rookie years with the Twins. In other words, nearly every elite Twins prospect since 2000 arrived as damaged goods.

Mauer tore the medial meniscus in his left knee while chasing after a foul ball in the second game of his Twins career, undergoing surgery the week before his 21st birthday and missing all but 35 games of his rookie season. Liriano made the All-Star team at age 22 and was having one of the most dominant rookie seasons ever by a pitcher when his elbow gave out, requiring Tommy John surgery that sidelined him for the entire next season.

Morneau made it to the Twins and reached his peak unscathed only to suffer a concussion in the middle of his age-29 season. At the time he was hitting .345 with a 1.055 OPS through 81 games, but he didn't play again that season, missed most of the next year, and has never been the same. Sano appeared to be on the verge of the majors last spring when he was shut down with an elbow injury that required Tommy John surgery, causing him to miss all of last season at age 21.

Kubel hit .352 with power and speed between Double-A and Triple-A at age 22 and then hit .300 in his 23-game debut with the Twins that September, but he suffered a career-threatening knee injury during a gruesome outfield collision in the Arizona Fall League and missed the entire next season before returning as a much different, more limited player. And now Buxton is out for six weeks with a thumb injury after being sidelined by wrist, finger, and brain injuries last season.

Injuries are obviously a part of baseball for all teams, but six of the Twins' seven elite prospects since 2000 suffering major injuries was franchise-altering. Liriano and Kubel were pretty clearly never the same following their injuries at age 22, it's possible that Mauer never truly reached his full potential playing an entire career with a surgically repaired knee, and Morneau was derailed by a brain injury at his absolute peak and never fully got back on track.

Sano is currently playing well at Double-A, but he's also repeating the level after a lost season, the injury lessens his odds of sticking at third base, and at the very least elbow surgery delayed his arrival to Minnesota. Similarly, four injuries in 18 months has stalled Buxton's development and the Twins can only hope that it won't keep him from ultimately reaching his peak or lower his upside whenever he does get there. It's a fate they've seen far too often with elite prospects.


For a lot more about Buxton's injury and the domino effect it has on the Twins' roster, check out this week's "Gleeman and The Geek" episode.

June 29, 2015

Gleeman and The Geek #201: Sexy Beasts

Topics for this week's "Gleeman and The Geek" episode included Byron Buxton's injury and the curse of the elite Twins prospect, Aaron Hicks' re-opened window, Alex Meyer's debut as a reliever, Ervin Santana joining the rotation soon, Danny Santana vs. Eduardo Escobar vs. Eduardo Nunez, Deolis Guerra finally getting to the majors, Ron Gardenhire possibly in Philadelphia, the best Twins leadoff men of all time, and the meaning of being a Sexy Beast.

Gleeman and The Geek: Episode 201

In addition to the direct download link above you can also subscribe to the podcast via iTunes.


This week's blog content is sponsored by Uber, which is offering a free ride to first-time users who sign up with the promo code "UberGleeman."

June 26, 2015

Twins call up former top starter prospect Alex Meyer as a reliever

Alex Meyer Twins

Two weeks after calling up No. 1 prospect Byron Buxton the Twins have added another top-100 prospect to the roster, promoting 6-foot-9 flame-thrower Alex Meyer from Triple-A for his MLB debut. Stalled development and ongoing control problems from a 25-year-old starter repeating Triple-A prompted the Twins to shift Meyer from the rotation to the bullpen in late May and now after dominating International League hitters for a month as a reliever he's in Minnesota.

Meyer allowed just one earned run in nine appearances as a reliever, posting a 0.53 ERA with 20 strikeouts in 17 innings while holding opponents to a .188 batting average. He walked six batters in 17 innings, so control remained an issue in the bullpen, but the Twins are hoping that Meyer working 1-2 innings at a time will allow him to take his already overpowering fastball to another level while also lessening durability concerns.

When the Twins moved Meyer to the bullpen I wrote about how there's no shame in that switch for pitching prospects, particularly since nearly every standout reliever in Twins history--including current All-Star closer Glen Perkins--was originally a starter. General manager Terry Ryan and company haven't ruled out Meyer taking another crack at starting some day, but if things go well for him initially as a reliever odds are he'll remain in the bullpen long term.

Starters typically become relievers due to a combination of control problems, durability concerns, issues with secondary offerings, and the hope that shorter stints will lead to improved raw stuff. Meyer checks all of those boxes. He walked 4.0 batters per nine innings as a starter, had minor arm injuries in each of the past two seasons, figures to benefit from focusing on his slider as the complement to his fastball, and could reach triple-digits when not trying to pace himself.

Casey Fien and Blaine Boyer have done a solid job serving as Perkins' primary setup men, but realistically they'd be better fits as middle relievers. Meyer has true late-inning potential thanks to a high-90s fastball and power slider that generated 10.5 strikeouts per nine innings at Double-A and Triple-A. No reliever with 50 innings for the Twins from 2010-2015 had an average fastball above 95 miles per hour and here are the top strikeout rates by a reliever in Twins history:

                SO/9
Joe Nathan      10.9
Pat Neshek      10.5
Tom Hall        10.1
Glen Perkins     9.4
Johan Santana    9.1

Back in November of 2012 when the Twins acquired Meyer as a 22-year-old Single-A prospect from the Nationals in a straight-up trade for center fielder Denard Span they did so hoping he'd develop into a top-of-the-rotation starter capable of giving them 180-200 innings per season. That scenario became less and less likely--and now looks like an extreme long shot--but 60-80 innings of late-inning, high-velocity, high-strikeout bullpen work would have plenty of value too.


For more about the call-up timetables for the Twins' top prospects check out this special midweek "Gleeman and The Geek" episode that focuses entirely on the farm system.

June 24, 2015

Gleeman and The Geek #200: Non-Stop Prospect Talk

In a special midweek, podcast-only "Gleeman and The Geek" episode we go player-by-player through the Twins' preseason top-40 prospects to see how their stock has changed and how close some of the high-end prospects like Miguel Sano and Jose Berrios are to reaching the majors.

Gleeman and The Geek: Episode 200

In addition to the direct download link above you can also subscribe to the podcast via iTunes.


This week's blog content is sponsored by Harry's Razors, where you can get discounted razors and shaving supplies delivered to your door by entering in the code "gleeman" at Harrys.com.

June 22, 2015

Gleeman and The Geek #199: Prospects Are Human Too

Topics for this week's "Gleeman and The Geek" episode included Byron Buxton putting his Hall of Fame induction on hold, where all the Twins' run scoring went, what happens to the rotation when Ervin Santana returns, releasing Jordan Schafer, Chris Herrmann's job security, first-round draft pick Tyler Jay signing for $3.9 million and going to Fort Myers, what to do and not to do while on the toilet, and Karl-Anthony Towns vs. Jahlil Okafor.

Gleeman and The Geek: Episode 199

In addition to the direct download link above you can also subscribe to the podcast via iTunes.


This week's blog content is sponsored by Uber, which is offering a free ride to first-time users who sign up with the promo code "UberGleeman."

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