August 3, 2015

Gleeman and The Geek #207: Kevin Jepsen, Trade (For) Me Maybe

Parker Hageman of Twins Daily stepped in as co-host on this week's "Gleeman and The Geek" episode and topics included the Twins trading for Kevin Jepsen, Tommy Milone's injury, Tyler Duffey joining the rotation, Aaron Hicks' improvement, Byron Buxton's next step, Danny Santana and Jorge Polanco going to the minors, whether or not to worry about Glen Perkins, and recording your children doing embarrassing things for future use.

Gleeman and The Geek: Episode 207

In addition to the direct download link above you can also subscribe to the podcast via iTunes.


This week's blog content is sponsored by Uber, which is offering a free ride to first-time users who sign up with the promo code "UberGleeman."

July 31, 2015

Deadline deal: Twins acquire reliever Kevin Jepsen from Rays

Kevin Jepsen Rays

Faced with clear weaknesses at shortstop, catcher, and reliever heading into Friday afternoon's trade deadline the Twins addressed only the bullpen, acquiring right-hander Kevin Jepsen from the Rays in exchange for pitching prospects Chih-Wei Hu and Alexis Tapia. Their lack of activity should come as no surprise, in part because the Twins are typically fairly conservative and in part because meaningful midseason upgrades at shortstop and catcher are hard to find.

On the other hand contending teams adding veteran bullpen reinforcements at the trade deadline is an annual tradition and this year was no different, with nearly a dozen quality relievers on the move. That list includes Jepsen, who has a 3.80 ERA in eight seasons with the Rays and Angels, but beyond clearing the low bar of representing an upgrade over Casey Fien and Blaine Boyer he's an underwhelming pickup.

Jensen throws hard, averaging 95 miles per hour with his fastball, but his career strikeout rate of 8.5 per nine innings is merely average for an MLB reliever and has dipped to a career-low 7.3 per nine innings this year. Jepsen also has terrible control, walking 3.6 per nine innings for his career and 4.3 per nine innings this year. Jepsen's nice-looking 2.81 ERA in 46 appearances for the Rays this season comes attached to a poor 34/20 K/BB ratio in 42 innings.

He's essentially an average reliever. There are 152 different pitchers with at least 100 innings out of the bullpen since 2013 and among them Jepsen ranks 60th in strikeout rate, 111th in walk rate, and 64th in ground-ball rate, which adds up to an 80th-ranked 3.15 ERA and a 73rd-ranked 3.54 xFIP. By comparison Fien has logged more innings than Jepsen with an identical 3.54 xFIP since 2013, albeit with a higher ERA.

Jepsen throws hard, strikes out a decent number of batters, and does a good job limiting homers, but he also struggles to consistently throw strikes and has a lopsided platoon split that makes him a poor matchup against good left-handed hitters in the late innings. He's not especially good, he's not especially bad, and there's certainly a very realistic chance that he provides the Twins with 20 useful innings down the stretch.

In question is whether Jepsen was the correct veteran reliever for the Twins to target as their lone trade deadline addition when plenty of bullpen arms were on the move and, beyond that, whether an average 31-year-old middle reliever with declining secondary numbers was worth parting ways with a decent 21-year-old starting pitching prospect in Hu (along with a 19-year-old rookie-baller in Tapia) rather than simply giving a chance to an in-house option like Michael Tonkin.

Hu ranked 19th on my list of the Twins' top prospects coming into the season and has improved his stock since then, posting a 2.44 ERA and 73/19 K/BB ratio in 85 innings at high Single-A and tossing six innings of one-run ball in a spot start at Triple-A. Signed out of Taiwan for $220,000 in 2012, he lacks dominant raw stuff but is hardly a soft-tosser and has shown good control against older, more experienced hitters.

There's no chance of Hu turning into a top-of-the-rotation starter and non-elite Single-A pitching prospects have a very high attrition rate, but he's a young pitcher who currently ranked among the Twins' top 12-15 prospects and would probably crack the top 10 in a lot of farm systems. You can view Hu as a solid prospect or as a lottery ticket with good but not great payoff potential, but either way swapping him for a mediocre middle reliever is questionable.

Jepsen is under team control via arbitration for next season, which could be spun as a positive compared to the various impending free agents changing teams as two-month rentals. However, given his $3.03 million salary this season Jepsen would likely get $5 million or more through the arbitration process next season and if the ability to retain an average 31-year-old reliever for that salary carries value it isn't much.


This week's blog content is sponsored by Uber, which is offering a free ride to first-time users who sign up with the promo code "UberGleeman."

July 27, 2015

Gleeman and The Geek #206: Calm Before The Trade Storm?

Topics for this week's "Gleeman and The Geek" episode included the Twins' ugly series loss to the Yankees, trade deadline targets big and small, Trevor May moving into a setup role, Byron Buxton being out longer than expected, Johnny Cueto coming to the AL Central, why Danny Santana is getting so much leeway, Yankees-loving girlfriends, Ervin Santana missing the playoffs, and being naked and cold.

Gleeman and The Geek: Episode 206

In addition to the direct download link above you can also subscribe to the podcast via iTunes.


This week's blog content is sponsored by Uber, which is offering a free ride to first-time users who sign up with the promo code "UberGleeman."

July 23, 2015

Gleeman and The Geek #205: Troy Tulowitzki, Mayor of Speculation City

Topics for this special midweek, podcast-only "Gleeman and The Geek" episode included the Twins lusting after Rockies shortstop Troy Tulowitzki, the ups and downs of Twins midseason trades since 2000, which Twins prospects have the potential to make everyone sad, misremembering Doug Mientkiewicz, drinking beer and making friends on the rooftop patio at LynLake Brewery, and mailbag questions from listeners.

Gleeman and The Geek: Episode 205

In addition to the direct download link above you can also subscribe to the podcast via iTunes.


This week's blog content is sponsored by Uber, which is offering a free ride to first-time users who sign up with the promo code "UberGleeman."

July 21, 2015

What should the Twins do at the trade deadline?

Eduardo Escobar and Kurt Suzuki Twins

For the past four seasons the only questions surrounding the Twins at the trade deadline were about whether they should trade away veteran players and whether any of the veteran players they might trade away would even interest contending teams, but this season is very different. Not only have they emerged as surprise contenders by starting 50-42, the Twins have done so despite three obvious weaknesses that could potentially be addressed with midseason pickups.

Starting catcher Kurt Suzuki has been terrible on both sides of the ball. He's hit .227/.283/.303 for a .586 OPS that ranks 26th out of the 28 regular catchers. He's thrown out 19 percent of steal attempts compared to the MLB rate of 31 percent and fares poorly in pitch-framing metrics every year. Suzuki's good first half last season convinced the Twins to give him a two-year, $12 million extension, but that decision looked highly questionable then and looks awful now.

He hit .237/.294/.357 from 2010-2013 and he's hit .235/.285/.326 since the extension. At age 31 with heavy workloads throughout his nine-year career there's little reason to expect Suzuki to turn things around. He's been among MLB's worst regulars and his backups--first Chris Herrmann and now Eric Fryer--are not starting-caliber players, leaving the Twins with an ugly situation behind the plate. Their catchers rank 25th in OPS and have been below average defensively.

Catcher is the spot where the Twins could make the biggest upgrade, but unfortunately it's also the spot where even an average all-around player typically carries a huge price tag at the trade deadline. To further complicate things Suzuki is under contract for $6 million next season, which isn't much in the grand scheme of MLB money but may be enough to make the Twins think twice about giving up prospects for a second catcher making considerable money.

Opening Day shortstop Danny Santana has been even worse than Suzuki, hitting .221/.241/.306 with a ghastly 63/4 K/BB ratio and committing 15 errors in 60 games. His current .547 OPS would be the third-worst in Twins history among hitters with at least 400 plate appearances. His overall value varies depending on which defensive metrics you rely on, but Baseball-Reference.com has Santana as MLB's worst all-around player with -1.7 Wins Above Replacement.

The bad news is that, much like for catchers, acquiring even an average all-around shortstop at the trade deadline is costly and difficult. The good news is that the Twins already have an average all-around shortstop in Eduardo Escobar. Based on both the eyes and the numbers Escobar is a solid defensive shortstop. He's not a good hitter, which is why manager Paul Molitor choosing to start Escobar in left field 27 times is confusing, but his bat is perfectly decent at shortstop.

Escobar has hit .260/.299/.384 in 279 games for the Twins, including .254/.284/.400 in 66 games this year. MLB shortstops as a whole are hitting .256/.303/.369 this year. His numbers are never going to look very pretty and his strike-zone control is barely better than Santana's, but Escobar is an average-hitting shortstop with average-or-better defensive skills if the Twins would simply let him play the position he held for nearly all of last season.

Relievers haven't been as big of a weakness for the pitching staff as catchers and shortstops have been for the lineup, but if you remove All-Star closer Glen Perkins from the equation the rest of the Twins' bullpen is revealed to be an unreliable, low-strikeout mess. Casey Fien and Blaine Boyer have been the primary setup men while combining for 35 strikeouts in 70 innings. Perkins has 37 strikeouts in 38 innings and that's not even a particularly great rate for a reliever.

Aaron Thompson was the primary lefty setup man until his early magic wore off and he was sent to Triple-A, so Brian Duensing was elevated to the role despite 47 strikeouts in 78 innings since last season. Relying on Fien, Duensing, and Boyer to get late-inning outs is no way to stay in the playoff picture and the other arms currently in the Twins' bullpen are Rule 5 pick J.R. Graham, demoted starter Trevor May, and freshly called up southpaw specialist Ryan O'Rourke.

Perkins has converted 28-of-29 save chances with a 1.41 ERA to rank third among AL relievers in Win Probability Added at 2.48. Every other reliever in the Twins' bullpen has combined for a 4.30 ERA (which would rank 28th) and a Win Probability Added of 0.86 (which would rank 19th). Even with Perkins' strikeouts included the bullpen has by far the lowest strikeout rate in baseball at 6.1 per nine innings when no other team is below 7.3.

Better relief pitching is needed, period. There are some in-house options with upside like Michael Tonkin, who's again dominating at Triple-A and has held his own in brief stints with the Twins. Of course, there's also room for the Twins to give an extended chance to a minor leaguer like Tonkin and add a veteran to the late-inning mix. And the good news is that acquiring capable relievers at the trade deadline is common practice and doesn't have to be overly expensive.

Teams often overpay when focusing on a specific reliever, especially a big-name closer, which is what the Twins did in sending top catching prospect Wilson Ramos to the Nationals for so-called proven closer Matt Capps in mid-2010. However, when teams are flexible and patient enough to let the market sort itself out there are usually decent setup men to be had for mid-level prospects, which is what the Twins did in getting Jon Rauch and Brian Fuentes inexpensively.

Perkins is a very good closer under team control through 2018, so there's zero need for the Twins to go nuts pursuing a big-ticket arm like Aroldis Chapman, Jonathan Papelbon, or Francisco Rodriguez. Instead they merely need someone to provide an upgrade over Fien, Duensing, and Boyer, which isn't a high bar and gives them plenty of options. Making the bullpen better should be a priority, but avoiding overpaying for two months of a veteran reliever is also important.

Catcher, shortstop, and bullpen are three obvious weaknesses. They can improve shortstop at no cost by handing the job back to Escobar. They should be able to improve the bullpen at minimal cost by shopping around for a decent setup man who can throw 20 solid innings down the stretch. To improve catcher would come with a bigger cost, because there are no in-house options, good catchers carry high price tags, and Suzuki is already on the books for $6 million in 2016.


For a lot more about the Twins' trade deadline plans, including some potential big-name targets, check out this week's "Gleeman and The Geek" episode.

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