March 30, 2015

Gleeman and The Geek #187: Roster Reactions and Dozier’s Deal

Topics for this week's "Gleeman and The Geek" episode included the Twins demoting Alex Meyer, Trevor May, Aaron Hicks, and Eddie Rosario to Triple-A, choosing Tommy Milone for the rotation, moving an angry Mike Pelfrey to the bullpen, signing Brian Dozier to a $20 million contract, trusting spring training numbers, what to drink at Mason's Barre, and giving away a pair of 20-game Twins season tickets courtesy of the Minnesota Corn Growers Association.

Gleeman and The Geek: Episode 187

In addition to the direct download link above you can also subscribe to the podcast via iTunes.


This week's blog content is sponsored by Uber, which is offering a free ride to first-time users who sign up with the promo code "UberGleeman."

March 25, 2015

Twins sign Brian Dozier to four-year, $20 million contract

Brian Dozier Twins

Second baseman Brian Dozier and the Twins have agreed to a four-year, $20 million contract, which begins immediately by bumping his 2015 salary from the MLB minimum to $2 million and then covers his three arbitration seasons at a cost of $3 million in 2016, $6 million in 2017, and $9 million in 2018. Dozier was already under team control through 2018 and this deal does not include any option years, so he remains eligible for free agency after 2018.

Typically with these types of contracts there's a tradeoff between guaranteed money and team control. In other words, the player is able to lock in multiple years of salaries rather than going year-to-year with the risk of being released at some point and the team is able to secure option years that enable them to push back free agency if desired. Dozier's contract fits only half of that description: He gets the guaranteed money, but the Twins get no added team control.

Instead of going year-to-year with Dozier through his three arbitration seasons at a salary to be determined based on his performance, the Twins have pre-paid for all three seasons. In doing so they gain cost certainty, in case MLB-wide salaries and/or Dozier's production rise dramatically, but they have also committed $20 million more in guaranteed money than was required without gaining any additional team control of Dozier.

Dozier and his agent, Damon Lapa, acknowledged the atypical, seemingly one-sided nature of the deal at the press conference announcing the contract. Lapa was quick to point out that they avoided giving up any additional years of team control to the Twins and Dozier called "this type of contract ... very rare" because it contained "no options, no free agent years." Dozier got what he wanted, which was life-changing money, and he didn't even have to pay the usual toll.

Cost certainty has some value, of course, and the budget-conscious Twins likely feel particularly relieved to avoid the possibility of paying Dozier bigger money in 2017 or 2018, but cost certainty can also turn into a bad thing and the Twins have seen that happen in the past after unnecessarily locking themselves into good but not great players. Dozier isn't Nick Blackburn or Joe Mays, but then again most people wrongly assumed those deals carried little downside at the time too.

Dozier was a very good player last season, making up for a poor batting average with power (21 homers) and plate discipline (89 walks) to produce a .245/.345/.416 line that ranked well above average for second basemen. Toss in solid defense and Dozier ranked among the half-dozen best players at his position. Repeating that performance for the next four seasons would make this contract a bargain for the Twins.

Of course, that can basically be said of any long-term contract because they tend to be handed out to players coming off strong seasons and, in Dozier's case, a season that stands out from the rest of his career. Prior to last year Dozier hit just .240/.297/.384 in 231 games for the Twins and .232/.286/.337 in 48 games at Triple-A. His numbers at Single-A and Double-A were much better, but even those were driven by high batting averages and featured minimal power.

Dozier is a much different hitter now than he was in the minors and because of that it's especially tough to project his future. Right now he looks like a building block-caliber player by combining power and patience at an up-the-middle defensive position. But going back just a couple years shows Dozier as a mediocre prospect who was in the minors until age 25 and that late arrival also meant he was under the Twins' control through age 31.

It's easy to see why Dozier jumped at this deal, but the Twins' motivation isn't as obvious. They could keep him around through 2018 then and they can keep him around through 2018 now, with the only differences being that they've guaranteed him $20 million and no longer have the ability to change their mind if things go poorly for Dozier or a prospect like Jorge Polanco emerges as a younger, cheaper alternative. Hopefully they'll at least save a little money.


This week's blog content is sponsored by the Minnesota Corn Growers Association, which is hosting a Twins season ticket giveaway contest on their website, MNFarmTeam.com.

March 23, 2015

Gleeman and The Geek #186: Stathead Molitor, Dad Gardy, and Over/Unders

Topics for this week's "Gleeman and The Geek" episode included Paul Molitor showing stat-head tendencies, Ron Gardenhire going full-on dad mode, gambling on the over/under win totals for AL East and AL West teams, giving away season ticket packages from the Minnesota Farm Growers, top prospects Byron Buxton, Miguel Sano, Jose Berrios, and Alex Meyer going to the minors, and the best and worst leadoff hitters in Twins history.

Gleeman and The Geek: Episode 186

In addition to the direct download link above you can also subscribe to the podcast via iTunes.


This week's blog content is sponsored by the Minnesota Corn Growers Association, which is hosting a Twins season ticket giveaway contest on their website, MNFarmTeam.com.

March 18, 2015

When should the Twins call up Buxton, Sano, and Berrios?

Sano and Buxton

Putting an early end to all the "will they make the Opening Day roster?" questions, the Twins sent top prospects Byron Buxton, Miguel Sano, and Jose Berrios to the minor-league side of camp. All three players are expected to begin the season at Double-A, where they'll likely be joined by fellow top-15 prospects Jorge Polanco, Nick Burdi, and Max Kepler, so Chattanooga Lookouts fans should enjoy their first season as a Twins affiliate.

After years of hearing about their upside it's understandable that many fans are clamoring to see Buxton, Sano, and Berrios at Target Field as soon as possible, but a little more patience is needed. For one thing, none of them look ready for the majors. Buxton was limited to just 31 games last season due to significant injuries and didn't play very well when in the lineup. Sano missed the entire season following elbow surgery. Berrios has pitched all of 43 innings above Single-A.

There have certainly been instances in which the Twins have kept prospects in the minors too long and in fact 25-year-old Alex Meyer may be a current example, but Buxton, Sano, and Berrios don't fit the description. Buxton and Sano are 21 years old, Berrios turns 21 in May, and all three are on track to reach the majors at some point this season. Opening Day jobs would short-change their development and short-change the Twins' team control of three building block talents.

By waiting as little as a few weeks to promote a prospect to the majors the Twins gain an entire additional year of pre-free agency team control over that player. In other words, if Buxton were in the majors for Opening Day and stayed there for good he would become a free agent following the 2020 season. However, if the Twins waited to call up Buxton until May he would become a free agent following the 2021 season. For better or worse, service time is an important consideration.

Even if you think Buxton, Sano, and Berrios are ready to thrive in the majors--and there's little evidence that's the case--why would a team prefer one month of them at age 21 over an entire season of them at age 28? If the Chattanooga Lookouts are destroying the Southern League in June and the Twins still haven't moved their stud prospects up the ladder there will be plenty of reason to complain, but for now their patience is better for everyone involved.

In the meantime the Twins need to evaluate whether Trevor Plouffe is part of their future plans, either at third base if Sano is forced to shift down the defensive spectrum or at another position. And if he's not, then his first-half performance will help determine if he's able to fetch something via trade or looks more like an offseason non-tender candidate. Similarly, the Twins need to figure out whether Aaron Hicks is a lost cause and could let him keep center field warm for Buxton.

Berrios is somewhat different in that the pitcher keeping his rotation spot warm is likely Tommy Milone or Mike Pelfrey, neither of whom have any real upside, but Meyer is still likely ahead of Berrios on the call-up list by virtue of being four years older with 160 more Double-A and Triple-A innings. Plus, it's a mere 14-hour drive from Minneapolis to Chattanooga and after watching the Twins' future on one field you can stop by the International Towing and Recovery Hall of Fame.


This week's blog content is sponsored by the Minnesota Corn Growers Association, which is hosting a Twins season ticket giveaway contest on their website, MNFarmTeam.com.

March 16, 2015

Gleeman and The Geek #185: Rosario Time?

Topics for this week's "Gleeman and The Geek" episode included Eddie Rosario's chances of stealing the center field job from Aaron Hicks, Mark Hamburger's case for a bullpen spot, winning Twins season tickets from the Minnesota Corn Growers, Spider-Man the internet repair guy, Joe Nathan being a mess, Kevin Correia finding a new home, eating salads at Mac's Industrial, getting into soccer, big spoons and little spoons, and AL Central cliches.

Gleeman and The Geek: Episode 185

In addition to the direct download link above you can also subscribe to the podcast via iTunes.


This week's blog content is sponsored by the Minnesota Corn Growers Association, which is hosting a Twins season ticket giveaway contest on their website, MNFarmTeam.com.

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