April 6, 2016

To catch a prospect: Where to find the Twins’ top minor leaguers in 2016

Carmen Sandiego

I've put together a little guide for Twins fans interested in tracking prospects this season. No. 1 prospect Byron Buxton and No. 4 prospect Byung Ho Park are already in Minnesota, but here's a breakdown of where the other prospects from my annual top-40 rankings can be found on the season-opening rosters for Triple-A Rochester, Double-A Chattanooga, Single-A Fort Myers, and Single-A Cedar Rapids.

Rochester Red Wings, Triple-A:

 #2 Jose Berrios, SP
 #3 Max Kepler, RF
 #6 Jorge Polanco, SS
#13 Adam Walker, LF
#14 Alex Meyer, SP
#22 Taylor Rogers, SP
#38 Ryan O'Rourke, RP
#40 Pat Dean, SP
MLB Tyler Duffey, SP
MLB Kennys Vargas, 1B
MLB J.R. Graham, RP

Rochester has a lot of star power, including three of the four best prospects in the farm system now that Buxton and Park have graduated. No. 3 prospect Max Kepler and No. 6 prospect Jorge Polanco headline a lineup that also features No. 13 prospect Adam Walker and former top-40 regular Kennys Vargas. One-time big leaguers Darin Mastroianni, John Hicks, Juan Centeno, and Wilfredo Tovar will also be at Triple-A.

No. 2 prospect Jose Berrios leads a pitching staff that includes top-40 prospects Alex Meyer, Taylor Rogers, Ryan O'Rourke, and Pat Dean, plus would-be top-40 prospects Tyler Duffey and J.R. Graham. It's hard to imagine any Triple-A rotation having a better one-two punch than Berrios and Duffey, both of whom should probably be in Minnesota right now. Logan Darnell, Brandon Kintzler, Dan Runzler, and Buddy Boshers are also one-time big leaguers.

Chattanooga Lookouts, Double-A:

 #9 Nick Burdi, RP
#15 Brandon Peterson, RP
#17 J.T. Chargois, RP
#18 Engelb Vielma, SS
#21 Aaron Slegers, SP
#24 Jake Reed, RP
#30 Ryan Eades, SP
#31 Mitch Garver, C
#32 Mason Melotakis, RP
#33 Stuart Turner, C
#35 Travis Harrison, RF
#37 Daniel Palka, RF

Last year Chattanooga opened the season with the most impressive collection of top prospects in Twins history led by Buxton, Berrios, Kepler, and Miguel Sano. This year's Double-A group can't compare, but the bullpen is well stocked with No. 9 prospect Nick Burdi and four other top-40 prospects. If the Twins' relief corps undergoes a significant makeover this season it'll be thanks to several power arms beginning the year in Chattanooga.

Offensively the Double-A lineup is lacking in upside, but does feature the system's best defensive shortstop in Engelb Vielma, the Mitch Garver-Stuart Turner catching duo looking to bounce back, and a pair of corner outfielders with power potential in Travis Harrison and Daniel Palka. Overall it's a good, deep collection of prospects as long as you don't compare it to Chattanooga's roster this time last year.

Fort Myers Miracle, Single-A:

 #5 Nick Gordon, SS
 #7 Tyler Jay, SP
 #8 Stephen Gonsalves, SP
#11 Lewis Thorpe, SP
#12 Kohl Stewart, SP
#20 Tanner English, CF
#25 Trevor Hildenberger, RP
#26 Luke Bard, RP
#28 Felix Jorge, SP
#34 Yorman Landa, RP

Fort Myers is home to the Twins' three most recent first-round draft picks in Tyler Jay, Nick Gordon, and Kohl Stewart, which is thanks to Jay not being placed on the expected fast track and Stewart repeating the level. Stephen Gonsalves and Lewis Thorpe are two of the highest-upside starters in the system, although Thorpe will begin the season on the disabled list as he comes back from elbow surgery. This group has plenty of upside but lots of question marks.

Cedar Rapids Kernels, Single-A:

#16 Jermaine Palacios, SS
#19 Michael Cederoth, SP
#29 LaMonte Wade, CF
#39 Chris Paul, LF

Cedar Rapids gets the short straw this season with only four top-40 prospects and zero top-15 prospects, although Wander Javier, Lewin Diaz, Travis Blankenhorn, and Lachlan Wells could join the roster early on after some time in extended spring training. Michael Cederoth is repeating the level, while LaMonte Wade and Chris Paul are former college stars who should be moved up quickly if they fare well.

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March 3, 2016

Top 40 Twins Prospects of 2016: System Overview

Also in this series: 1-5, 6-10, 11-15, 16-20, 21-25, 26-30, 31-35, 36-40.

Byron Buxton and Max Kepler Twins

My annual series ranking and profiling the Twins' top prospects concluded this week, so here's the complete list of 40 players along with links to each individual write-up and an overview of the farm system as a whole:

 1. Byron Buxton, CF               21. Aaron Slegers, SP
 2. Jose Berrios, SP               22. Taylor Rogers, SP
 3. Max Kepler, RF                 23. Travis Blankenhorn, 3B
 4. Byung Ho Park, 1B              24. Jake Reed, RP
 5. Nick Gordon, SS                25. Trevor Hildenberger, RP
 6. Jorge Polanco, SS              26. Luke Bard, RP
 7. Tyler Jay, SP                  27. Lewin Diaz, 1B
 8. Stephen Gonsalves, SP          28. Felix Jorge, SP
 9. Nick Burdi, RP                 29. LaMonte Wade, CF
10. Wander Javier, SS              30. Ryan Eades, SP
11. Lewis Thorpe, SP               31. Mitch Garver, C
12. Kohl Stewart, SP               32. Mason Melotakis, RP
13. Adam Walker, LF                33. Stuart Turner, C
14. Alex Meyer, RP                 34. Yorman Landa, RP
15. Brandon Peterson, RP           35. Travis Harrison, RF
16. Jermaine Palacios, SS          36. Lachlan Wells, SP
17. J.T. Chargois, RP              37. Daniel Palka, RF
18. Engelb Vielma, SS              38. Ryan O'Rourke, RP
19. Michael Cederoth, SP           39. Chris Paul, LF
20. Tanner English, CF             40. Pat Dean, SP

Miguel Sano, Eddie Rosario, Trevor May, and Tyler Duffey graduating to the majors takes a huge dent out of the Twins' farm system, but their prospect stockpile remains one of the best in baseball thanks to Byron Buxton retaining his rookie eligibility by exactly one at-bat and Max Kepler breaking through with an MVP season at Double-A. Toss in Jose Berrios cementing his status as one of the game's best pitching prospects and the headlining trio is second-to-none.

In addition to the four key graduations last year Alex Meyer saw his stock plummet, Lewis Thorpe missed the entire season following elbow surgery, and recent top-10 picks Nick Gordon and Kohl Stewart had up-and-down years, but the Twins added significant new talent in top-10 pick Tyler Jay and international signings Byung Ho Park and Wander Javier. Even beyond the three potential stars the Twins' farm system is deep with quality hitting and pitching prospects.

Offensively they're particularly deep in shortstops, although only light-hitting defensive wizard Engelb Vielma is a lock to remain at the position long term, only Jorge Polanco is close to the majors, and Gordon, Javier, and Jermaine Palacios are all very raw. They're also fairly deep in outfielders, but lacking in catchers and power potential past Park and Adam Walker. Of course, the 23-year-old Sano and 24-year-old Rosario are also part of the organization's young power.

On the pitching side Berrios stands out as the rotation's long-term anchor, but beyond that there are no starters close to the majors with top-of-the-rotation upside and the best low-minors arms like Jay, Thorpe, Stewart, and Stephen Gonsalves all have question marks. There's no shortage of hard-throwing relievers in the system and most of them could be a couple good months away from Minnesota, which no doubt motivated the Twins' lack of bullpen acquisitions this offseason.

Each of the Twins' top four prospects (Buxton, Berrios, Kepler, Park) figure to graduate this year, which is atypical and speaks to the next wave of upside set to join Sano and Rosario in Minnesota. However, the rest of the Twins' top 20 skews pretty young and no one else is a lock to stick in the majors for good this season. This time next year the Twins' farm system will likely be rated middle of the pack or worse, but fans will be too distracted by the young talent at Target Field to care.

March 1, 2016

Top 40 Twins Prospects of 2016: 5, 4, 3, 2, 1

Also in this series: 6-10, 11-15, 16-20, 21-25, 26-30, 31-35, 36-40.

5. Nick Gordon | Shortstop | DOB: 10/95 | Bats: Left | Draft: 2014-1

YEAR     LV      PA      AVG      OBP      SLG     HR    XBH     BB     SO
2014     RK+    255     .294     .333     .366      1     11     11     45
2015     A-     535     .277     .336     .360      1     31     39     88

Selected fifth overall in the 2014 draft out of a Florida high school and signed for $3.85 million, shortstop Nick Gordon followed up a solid pro debut at rookie-ball with an up-and-down first full season at low Single-A. Gordon got off to a rough start, hitting .230 in 45 games through the end of May. He played well from then on, hitting .304 in 75 games after June 1. His overall .696 OPS looks modest, but was actually above the Midwest League average of .682 as a 19-year-old.

Through two seasons Gordon has shown his natural ability with a .282 batting average, but has shown his inexperience with a 133/50 K/BB ratio and his iffy power potential with two homers in 177 games. Also of note is that Gordon grounded into 29 double plays--including a league-leading 20 last season--which is an incredibly high total for a speedy 19-year-old left-handed hitter who stole 36 bases during that same time. He's putting the ball on the ground a lot.

Simply holding his own offensively as a teenage shortstop at low Single-A is an accomplishment for Gordon, whose father Tom Gordon and brother Dee Gordon have both been All-Stars in the majors. He was named the best defensive shortstop by Midwest League managers, although some reviews wonder if he'll be able to handle the position long term or will need to shift to second base eventually like his brother did. He'll take on high Single-A this year.

4. Byung Ho Park | First Base | DOB: 7/86 | Bats: Right | Sign: Korea

YEAR     LV      PA      AVG      OBP      SLG     HR    XBH     BB     SO
2013     KBO    556     .318     .437     .602     37     54     92     96
2014     KBO    571     .303     .433     .686     52     70     96    142
2015     KBO    622     .343     .436     .714     53     89     78    161

As a 29-year-old with two MVP awards and four home run titles in Korea he's far from a standard prospect, but Byung Ho Park is technically an MLB rookie and thus qualifies for this list. Signed to a four-year, $12 million contract after the Twins won the bidding for his exclusive negotiating rights for an additional $12.85 million, Park is slated to be the Opening Day designated hitter and occasional first baseman. And hopefully a middle-of-the-order bat.

Park's numbers in Korea were incredible, including hitting .343/.436/.714 with 53 homers in 140 games last season to top a 1.000 OPS for the third straight year. His power potential is massive and his spray chart suggests he's capable of going deep from foul pole to foul pole. Park also hit for big batting averages in Korea, but in doing so he struck out a ton and because of that it'd be tough to expect that to continue for the Twins without a change in approach.

Numbers-based projections for Park are highly encouraging, viewing him as a legit slugger who draws enough walks to offset a poor batting average, but because there are so few KBO-to-MLB or MLB-to-KBO data points on which to rely the confidence levels are low. Given the Twins' relatively modest investment Park simply being an average hitter would pay big dividends and the potential is there for him to be much more.

3. Max Kepler | Right Field | DOB: 2/93 | Bats: Left | Sign: Germany

YEAR     LV      PA      AVG      OBP      SLG     HR    XBH     BB     SO
2013     A-     263     .237     .312     .424      9     23     24     43
2014     A+     407     .264     .333     .393      5     31     34     62
2015     AA     482     .322     .416     .531      9     54     67     63

Max Kepler's raw talent has rarely been in question since the Twins signed him out of Germany for $800,000 as a 16-year-old, but injuries and underwhelming on-field production kept him from emerging as a top prospect. That all changed in a huge way last year, as he hit .322/.416/.531 in 112 games at Double-A to lead the Southern League in OPS and be named MVP as a 22-year-old. He debuted with the Twins in late September, collecting his first career hit off Johnny Cueto.

Kepler's performance was nearly flawless. He hit .323 off righties and .318 off lefties, walked more than he struck out, went 18-of-22 stealing bases, and did all that while facing pitchers older than him 90 percent of the time. His homer total was modest, but Kepler smacked 54 extra-base hits in fewer than 500 at-bats and his solid 6-foot-4 frame should lead to more bombs. While they were Chattanooga teammates Kepler had a .947 OPS and Miguel Sano had a .918 OPS.

Kepler has been primarily a center fielder in the minors, which speaks to his athleticism, but long term he projects as a corner outfielder with plus range. If the power develops Kepler has a chance to be a star and even if he tops out at 10-15 homers per season his all-around skill set is enough to make him a very good everyday player. He'll begin this season at Triple-A and could force his way to Minnesota by the All-Star break. Kepler would be the No. 1 prospect for a lot of teams.

2. Jose Berrios | Starter | DOB: 5/94 | Throws: Right | Draft: 2012-1

YEAR     LV      G     GS      ERA        IP       H     HR      SO     BB
2013     A-     19     19     3.99     103.2     105      6     100     40
2014     A+     16     16     1.96      96.1      78      4     109     23
         AA      8      8     3.54      40.2      33      2      28     12
2015     AA     15     15     3.08      90.2      77      6      92     24
         AAA    12     12     2.62      75.2      59      6      83     14

Jose Berrios was selected by the Twins out of a Puerto Rico high school with the 30th pick in the 2012 draft--28 spots after they snagged Byron Buxton--and four years later he's on the verge of the majors. Actually, he seemed on the verge of the majors this time last year, but the Twins took an extremely conservative approach to handling Berrios by sending him back to Double-A for the first half and then citing workload limits for a lack of August or September call-up to Minnesota.

Instead of making his MLB debut Berrios logged 166 innings at Double-A and Triple-A with a 3.03 ERA and 175/38 K/BB ratio as a 21-year-old, leading all of minor-league baseball in strikeouts while facing hitters older than him in 655 of 667 plate appearances. Despite a slight frame Berrios has mid-90s velocity, plus a pair of quality off-speed pitches that allowed the right-hander to fare better versus lefties than righties in 2015.

Berrios has improved his strikeout rate, walk rate, and durability on an annual basis while moving up the organizational ladder and from both a statistical and raw stuff standpoint he shines as the best Twins pitching prospect since Matt Garza in 2006. Many teams would have called up Berrios last year, but the Twins will send him back to Triple-A for even more seasoning while delaying the start of his service time. If he's not one of the Twins' best starters by June something went wrong.

1. Byron Buxton | Center Field | DOB: 12/93 | Bats: Right | Draft: 2012-1

YEAR     LV      PA      AVG      OBP      SLG     HR    XBH     BB     SO
2013     A-     321     .341     .431     .559      8     33     44     56
         A+     253     .326     .415     .472      4     16     32     49
2014     A+     134     .240     .313     .405      4     10     10     33
2015     AA     268     .283     .351     .489      6     25     26     51
         AAA     59     .400     .441     .545      1      5      4     12
         MLB    138     .209     .250     .326      2     10      6     44

Because he struggled and got injured in his MLB debut a too-large segment of Twins fans soured on Byron Buxton, but soon enough he'll make those same people impossible to find. There's no disputing that Buxton had a rough first taste of the majors and has had trouble staying healthy, making him an imperfect prospect. However, hitting .305/.367/.500 at Double-A and Triple-A as a 21-year-old center fielder with jaw-dropping speed also solidified his status as a great prospect.

Buxton's inability to control the strike zone led to an ugly 44/6 K/BB ratio with the Twins, but his plate discipline wasn't awful so much as misguided. He actually showed decent patience, but too often laid off hittable pitches only to chase two-strike junk. It's a common problem for rookies and Buxton's track record shows he's anything but an undisciplined hacker. It may take a little more time, but if Buxton controls the strike zone the rest of his skill set screams superstar.

His range is spectacular, his arm is well above average, and he's one of MLB's fastest players. All of which means he doesn't need to be an impact bat to have huge value, but Buxton might be an impact bat too. In the minors he's hit .301 with a solid walk rate and once his lanky frame fills out 20 homers per year is doable along with tons of triples. Don't let a lack of current polish fool you into thinking Buxton is anything but an elite prospect with massive all-around upside.

February 26, 2016

Top 40 Twins Prospects of 2016: 10, 9, 8, 7, 6

Also in this series: 1-5, 11-15, 16-20, 21-25, 26-30, 31-35, 36-40.

10. Wander Javier | Shortstop | DOB: 12/98 | Bats: Right | Sign: Dominican

Wander Javier cracks the top 10 despite being a 17-year-old with zero professional experience because just six months ago the Twins signed him out of the Dominican Republic for $4 million, breaking the organization's previous record for an international prospect signing of $3.15 million for Miguel Sano in 2009. Javier is a long way from the majors, but based on publicly available scouting reports he's the type of player around which a farm system could be built.

Baseball America ranked Javier as the ninth-best international prospect eligible to sign last July, noting his "wide range of tools that are plus or project to be plus in the future." He's currently a six-foot, 175-pound shortstop with some chance to remain at the position long term. MLB.com ranked Javier as the eighth-best international prospect of 2015, noting his "potential to be the best all-around player in the class."

Of course, he's not without massive risk. For one thing projecting the future of a 17-year-old is incredibly difficult bordering on impossible (he was born in 1998!). Beyond that, Baseball America says there's a "widespread question" about Javier's offensive upside because his approach at the plate can be shaky. Similarly, according to MLB.com some scouts tracking Javier wanted "to see him display his talents more consistently." He's a $4 million mix of big-time upside and risk.

9. Nick Burdi | Reliever | DOB: 1/93 | Throws: Right | Draft: 2014-2

YEAR     LV      G     GS      ERA        IP       H     HR      SO     BB
2014     A-     13      0     4.15      13.0       8      0      26      8
         A+      7      0     0.00       7.1       5      0      12      2
2015     A+     13      0     2.25      20.0      12      1      29      3
         AA     30      0     4.53      43.2      40      3      54     32

Nick Burdi received a lot of hype heading into last year because he throws 100 miles per hour and seemed likely to make a midseason impact for the Twins within 12 months of being drafted in the second round out of Louisville. Instead he struggled at Double-A to begin the season, posting a 5.93 ERA with 22 walks in 30 innings, and was demoted back to Single-A in July. He failed to reach Minnesota and it took a great stretch at Single-A just to finish the year back at Double-A.

It was a disappointing first full season for the right-hander Baseball America called "the hardest thrower in college baseball" going into the 2014 draft, but Burdi still showed the high upside he displayed while posting a 0.62 ERA in college. From July 1 through the end of the season he had a 1.89 ERA and 50/13 K/BB ratio in 33 innings, holding opponents to a .174 batting average. If he'd pitched that way to begin the season he'd likely have been in the Twins' bullpen by June.

Burdi had 15.7 strikeouts per nine innings for Louisville in 2013-2014 and has 13.0 strikeouts per nine innings as a pro, including at least 11.0 per nine innings at all three levels. He looks the part of a flame-thrower at 6-foot-5 and has the triple-digit fastball and low-90s slider to match. If he can simply throw strikes on a somewhat consistent basis Burdi has a chance to be a late-inning stud and he heads into 2016 just as he headed into 2015: On the verge of the big leagues.

8. Stephen Gonsalves | Starter | DOB: 7/94 | Throws: Left | Draft: 2013-4

YEAR     LV      G     GS      ERA        IP       H     HR      SO     BB
2013     RK-     5      2     0.63      14.1       8      0      18      7
         RK+     3      3     1.29      14.0      10      0      21      4
2014     RK+     6      6     2.79      29.0      23      1      26     10
         A-      8      8     3.19      36.2      31      1      44     11
2015     A-      9      9     1.15      55.0      29      2      77     15
         A+     15     15     2.61      79.1      66      2      55     38

Stephen Gonsalves fell to the Twins in the fourth round of the 2013 draft due to a high school suspension and has lived up to the billing of being a first-round talent. Signed for an above-slot bonus of $700,000, the 6-foot-5 left-hander has a 2.17 ERA in 228 innings as a pro but the Twins have been conservative with his promotion timetable. Gonsalves spent parts of three seasons in rookie-ball and began last year at low Single-A despite already thriving there to end 2014.

He made 17 total starts at low Single-A with a 1.96 ERA and 121/26 K/BB ratio in 92 innings. His numbers ceased being video game-like following a midseason promotion to high Single-A last year--his strikeouts dipped and his walks rose--but Gonsalves still managed to be very tough to hit with a 2.61 ERA and .225 opponents' batting average while allowing just two homers in 79 innings. He was one of six 20-year-olds to throw 75 or more innings in the Florida State League.

Gonsalves' control definitely needs plenty of work, but for all the talk about the effectiveness of his off-speed pitches lagging behind his low-90s fastball he's a rare lefty with consistently better numbers versus righties. It's possible that high Single-A and Double-A hitters could expose some of Gonsalves' flaws this season, but if not he has a chance to be a consensus top-100 prospect across MLB this time next year.

7. Tyler Jay | Reliever | DOB: 4/94 | Throws: Left | Draft: 2015-1

YEAR     LV      G     GS      ERA        IP       H     HR      SO     BB
2015     A+     19      0     3.93      18.1      18      0      22      8

College relievers drafted with top-10 picks have a very poor track record, but in taking University of Illinois left-hander Tyler Jay sixth overall the Twins made it clear they believe he can develop into a starter. Baseball America ranked Jay as the 13th-best prospect in the draft and suggested he could be the first from the class to reach the majors if used as a reliever, but instead the Twins sent him to high Single-A and left him there to make 19 appearances out of the bullpen.

Jay's college numbers were great with a 0.60 ERA and 70/7 K/BB ratio in 60 innings last season and after a rough first few outings he pitched well in his pro debut, showing the mid-90s fastball and power slider that dominated Big Ten hitters. In question is how much velocity he'll lose as a starter, how he'll hold up physically, and how effective his changeup can be. For the Twins turning college relievers into pro starters has mostly been a struggle, but it certainly can be done.

Most college stars who're top-10 picks move very quickly through the minors, but since the Twins are trying to teach Jay to do something he's basically never done it may take a while. "Late-inning reliever" is a nice fallback plan that can always be put in motion to get Jay back on the fast track, although the history of college relievers suggests that's also far from a sure thing. Either way, the Twins went out on a limb picking Jay and now they need to get value from player development.

6. Jorge Polanco | Shortstop | DOB: 7/93 | Bats: Switch | Sign: Dominican

YEAR     LV      PA      AVG      OBP      SLG     HR    XBH     BB     SO
2013     A-     523     .308     .362     .452      5     47     42     59
2014     A+     432     .291     .364     .415      6     29     46     60
         AA     157     .281     .323     .342      1      7      9     28
2015     AA     431     .289     .346     .393      6     26     35     63
         AAA     94     .284     .309     .352      0      6      4     10

Two years ago Jorge Polanco became the youngest position player to debut for the Twins since Joe Mauer in 2004 and last year he again received a brief call-up, but he spent most of 2015 at Double-A. He played well there, hitting .289/.346/.393 with modest power and a decent walk rate in 95 games. He also played 22 games at Triple-A, hitting .284 with less power and fewer walks. And given that Polanco did all of it at age 21 it was an impressive season.

Polanco played mostly shortstop for the second straight year after splitting time between second base and shortstop in the low minors, but reviews of his defense there are mixed. He's committed a lot of errors at shortstop in the minors and his arm strength appears somewhat lacking, but the Twins insist they think he can stick at the position. Given his offensive skill set that could be key, because as a passable defensive shortstop Polanco has a chance to be an impact player.

If instead Polanco winds up at second base his limited power and unspectacular plate discipline lower his upside considerably, not to mention the Twins have Brian Dozier signed through 2018. It's unclear where Polanco fits into the Twins' plans and because of that--plus his impending MLB readiness--the speedy switch-hitter is the top-10 prospect most likely to be trade bait. He's set to arrive at one of the few times in two decades the Twins may not need middle infield help.

February 24, 2016

Top 40 Twins Prospects of 2016: 15, 14, 13, 12, 11

Also in this series: 1-5, 6-10, 16-20, 21-25, 26-30, 31-35, 36-40.

15. Brandon Peterson | Reliever | DOB: 9/91 | Throws: Right | Draft: 2013-13

YEAR     LV      G     GS      ERA        IP       H     HR      SO     BB
2013     RK+    19      0     2.96      27.1      22      3      40      9
2014     A-      9      0     0.71      12.2       9      0      19      2
         A+     31      1     1.80      45.0      28      0      65     17
2015     A+     21      0     0.85      31.2      14      0      44     15
         AA     20      0     3.38      29.1      30      1      33     13

He's largely flown under the radar in a Twins farm system filled with several high-profile reliever prospects, but none have performed better than right-hander Brandon Peterson since his pro debut in 2013. Drafted in the 13th round out of Wichita State, the Minnesota native dominated rookie-ball in 2013, overpowered hitters at two levels of Single-A in 2014, and kept cruising to Double-A last season at age 23.

Overall he's got a 2.04 ERA in three pro seasons, racking up an incredible 201 strikeouts in 146 innings. In his two full seasons above rookie-ball Peterson has held opponents to a .191 batting average and one home run in 479 plate appearances, striking out more than one-third of the batters he faced. Peterson was also no slouch at Wichita State, posting a 1.13 ERA and 42/15 K/BB ratio with zero homers in 40 innings.

His raw stuff can't match those numbers because short of maybe Aroldis Chapman no one's can, but Peterson works in the low-90s with his fastball and also has a swing-and-miss slider. He's not just a bunch of great numbers, he's a legitimate prospect. At age 24 and with a half-season of success at Double-A already under his belt it's hard to imagine Peterson not reaching the majors this year if his performance is anywhere near 2014/2015 levels.

14. Alex Meyer | Reliever | DOB: 1/90 | Throws: Right | Trade: Nationals

YEAR     LV      G     GS      ERA        IP       H     HR      SO     BB
2013     AA     13     13     3.21      70.0      60      3      84     29
2014     AAA    27     27     3.52     130.1     116     10     153     64
2015     AAA    38      8     4.79      92.0     101      4     100     48

Last year at this time Alex Meyer seemed to be on the verge of joining the Twins' rotation and many people had visions of the 6-foot-9 right-hander with a mid-90s fastball developing into an ace starter. One year later there's a chance Meyer will never make a start for the Twins, let alone emerge as a top-of-the-rotation anchor. He was a mess at Triple-A early on last year, got shifted to the bullpen in mid-May, and stayed there for the remainder of the season.

Meyer has always had shaky command, which isn't unexpected with a flame-throwing giant, but his control vanished last year and even after being demoted to the bullpen he issued 4.4 walks per nine innings. He got rocked during his brief MLB debut in late June, coughing up two homers and five runs in three innings, and was not called back up. There's no doubt that Meyer's rough 2015 took a big chunk out of his prospect status, but he still has late-inning bullpen potential.

He consistently works in the mid-90s with his fastball--averaging 96 mph in his two-game Twins stint--and Meyer racked up 62 strikeouts in 55 innings as a reliever. For now the Twins haven't abandoned the idea of Meyer as a starter, but throwing 20 pitches at maximum effort a few times per week seems like his best bet to stick in the majors. And at 26 years old there's no reason for the Twins to hold him back if Meyer shows any sort of consistency as a reliever in the minors.

13. Adam Walker | Left Field | DOB: 10/91 | Bats: Right | Draft: 2012-3

YEAR     LV      PA      AVG      OBP      SLG     HR    XBH     BB     SO
2013     A-     553     .278     .319     .526     27     65     31    115
2014     A+     555     .246     .307     .436     25     45     44    156
2015     AA     560     .239     .309     .498     31     65     51    195

There's a tendency to compare low-average, high-strikeout minor leaguers like Adam Walker to successful low-average, high-strikeout major leaguers. However, that's flawed because successful low-average, high-strikeout hitters typically weren't that way in the minors. In other words, if you strike out a ton and hit .239 at Double-A like Walker did last season the expectation wouldn't be that you'd hit .239 in the majors. It'd be a lot worse.

Adam Dunn, Chris Davis, and Ryan Howard hit above .300 as minor leaguers, so expecting Walker to follow in their footsteps because his numbers in the minors look like their numbers in the majors requires a leap of faith. None of which means Walker isn't an intriguing prospect. His power potential is massive. Walker has played four pro seasons and led all four leagues in home runs, averaging 32 per 150 games. However, his strikeout rate is beyond "high."

Consider that as Double-A hitters Walker struck out 30 percent more often than Miguel Sano, whose strikeout rate is viewed as extreme. Walker also does a much worse job controlling the strike zone, drawing 51 walks compared to 195 strikeouts in 560 plate appearances last season. And those 51 walks were a career-high. Toss in iffy corner outfield defense and Walker's future essentially revolves around his ability to bash 30 homers per season off big-league pitchers.

12. Kohl Stewart | Starter | DOB: 10/94 | Throws: Right | Draft: 2013-1

YEAR     LV      G     GS      ERA        IP       H     HR      SO     BB
2013     RK      6      3     1.69      16.0      12      0      16      3
         RK+     1      1     0.00       4.0       1      0       8      1
2014     A-     19     19     2.59      87.0      75      4      62     24
2015     A+     22     22     3.20     129.1     134      2      71     45

Things have not gone according to plan for Kohl Stewart since the Twins selected him with the fourth overall pick in the 2013 draft and signed him away from a Texas A&M football scholarship for $4.5 million. He's missed time with arm problems in each of his three seasons and displayed no ability to miss bats while facing low-minors competition, showing why using top-10 draft picks on high school pitchers has such a spotty track record throughout MLB.

Stewart averaged 6.4 strikeouts per nine innings at low Single-A in 2014 and saw that dip to 4.9 strikeouts per nine innings at high Single-A last season. He was young for both levels and is still learning to pitch, but high school phenom top-five picks are supposed to rack up strikeouts and Stewart has failed to do so. Last year at Fort Myers he totaled 71 strikeouts and 45 walks in 129 innings, which would have sent Stewart plummeting down this list if not for his pedigree.

His poor strikeout rate is a major red flag, but Stewart has shown the ability to generate tons of ground balls and that skill alone contains plenty of upside. He allowed just two home runs in 553 plate appearances last year despite facing hitters older than him 90 percent of the time. Stewart's raw stuff translating to ground balls instead of strikeouts isn't what the Twins had in mind, but it still puts him on the path to long-term success if his control and durability improve.

11. Lewis Thorpe | Starter | DOB: 12/95 | Throws: Left | Sign: Australia

YEAR     LV      G     GS      ERA        IP       H     HR      SO     BB
2013     RK-    12      8     2.05      44.0      32      2      64      6
2014     A-     16     16     3.52      71.2      62      7      80     36

Thanks to an impressive mix of youth, raw stuff, and production in the low minors Australian left-hander Lewis Thorpe's prospect stock rose rapidly in 2014 only to come to a screeching halt when September elbow problems led to Tommy John surgery. He went under the knife at the end of spring training and missed the entire 2015 season, meaning he'll likely be somewhat limited in 2016 as well. At age 20 there's no need to rush his recovery timetable.

Prior to blowing out his elbow Thorpe dominated rookie-ball hitters in 2013 and then moved up to full-season competition as an 18-year-old, posting a 3.52 ERA with 80 strikeouts in 72 innings at low Single-A in 2014. He was the youngest pitcher in the Midwest League and the average hitter he faced was 22, making his already strong numbers stand out further. Even after missing an entire year Thorpe will still be among the youngest pitchers at Single-A in 2016.

Thorpe signed with the Twins for $500,000 as a 16-year-old, so his outstanding pre-surgery play matched expectations. He was on track to perhaps reach Double-A as a 19-year-old last season, but this season will be all about getting Thorpe back on track despite his no longer being on the fast track. After all, even after a totally lost season Thorpe is still two years younger than the Twins' first-round draft pick last year.

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