July 11, 2014

Twins Daily’s “Home Run Happy Hour”

mason's

Monday before the Home Run Derby my podcast co-host John Bonnes and rest of the boys at Twins Daily are hosting a happy hour from 4:30 to 6:30 at Mason's Restaurant Barre downtown. I'll be there, along with Bonnes and Parker Hageman and several special guests who're in town for the All-Star festivities. Oh, and multiple kegs of beer will be provided by Twins Daily, free of charge, so come have a beer and hang out.

Twins Daily's "Home Run Happy Hour"


This week's blog content is sponsored by Uber, which is offering a free ride to first-time users who sign up with the promo code "UberGleeman."

July 9, 2014

Twins Notes: Nolasco, Buxton, Sano, Gordon, Parmelee, and Dozier

ricky nolasco and ron gardenhire

• In signing Ricky Nolasco to a four-year, $49 million contract the Twins touted his durability as a major selling point, as the 31-year-old right-hander had started at least 30 games and logged at least 185 innings in five of the previous six seasons. Now, just four months into his Twins career and with an ugly 5.90 ERA in 18 starts, Nolasco has been shut down with elbow soreness that he's apparently been pitching through since spring training.

If everyone involved is to be believed that news came as a surprise to the Twins, which means either Nolasco went out of his way to hide the injury from trainers and coaches or those same trainers and coaches went out of their way not to investigate his season-long struggles. Or maybe a mixture of both. Certainly if he was hiding the elbow injury that has to be very frustrating for the Twins and Nolasco is absolutely at fault.

However, it's also worth noting that the Twins--from the front office to manager Ron Gardenhire and his coaching staff--have created and repeatedly fed into a culture in which acting like a tough guy and playing through pain is considered noble rather than stupid or irresponsible. Even in discussing how Nolasco hid the injury from the team Gardenhire almost couldn't help acting as if there was something positive about the so-called "old school" approach taken by the pitcher.

Meanwhile, seemingly every season one or two key players try to tough their way through injuries with disastrous results and no one ever seems to learn a lesson from it. Who knows whether that played a role in Nolasco pitching through pain, but it certainly didn't play a role in convincing him to do otherwise. When can we end this outdated, shortsighted approach of letting hugely valuable athletes risk their short- and long-term health and productivity in the name of being tough guys?

If you're a player and you're hurt, tell someone in charge. And if you're someone in charge and a player tells you he's hurt, don't let him continue playing. As simple as those two directives sound, they've been sadly lacking for the Twins in recent years. This time around it led to their trotting out an injured pitcher for 18 horrible starts and putting at risk a $48 million investment. If that's "old school" then everyone flunked out.

• Worst single-season adjusted ERA+ in Twins history among pitchers with 100 or more innings:

68 - Jim Deshaies, 1994
66 - Ricky Nolasco, 2014
71 - Boof Bonser, 2008
72 - Ray Corbin, 1974
72 - Joe Mays, 2003
72 - Jim Hughes, 1976

Helluva list.

• MLB starting pitchers have a combined 3.90 ERA. Twins starters have the following ERAs:

3.70 - Phil Hughes
4.17 - Kyle Gibson
4.79 - Kevin Correia
4.98 - Yohan Pino
5.90 - Ricky Nolasco
6.52 - Sam Deduno
7.99 - Mike Pelfrey

As a group Twins starting pitchers rank 29th among MLB teams in ERA, ahead of only the Coors Field-inflated Rockies. Last season they ranked 30th in ERA and in 2012 they ranked 29th in ERA, also ahead of only Colorado.

Byron Buxton finally returned from a wrist injury after sitting out the first three-plus months of the season and despite all the missed time Baseball America's midseason update still ranked him as the No. 1 prospect in all of baseball. Miguel Sano also ranked No. 9 even though the Twins just announced that he'll miss the entire season following elbow surgery and pitchers Jose Berrios, Kohl Stewart, and Alex Meyer also cracked Baseball America's updated top 40.

• Meyer looks to be back on track at Triple-A after some struggles last month. He struck out 10 last night and has a 2.00 ERA with 20 strikeouts in 18 innings over his last three starts.

• No. 5 overall draft pick Nick Gordon has hit .359/.408/.500 with five extra-base hits and four stolen bases through his first 15 pro games for rookie-level Elizabethon.

Chris Parmelee is 26 years old and has batted .235 with a .299 on-base percentage and .370 slugging percentage in 677 plate appearances since his big September debut, so it's probably time to stop getting excited whenever he has a decent week.

• His batting average isn't pretty, but Brian Dozier's current 112 adjusted OPS+ is the best by a Twins middle infielder since Todd Walker in 1998 and Chuck Knoblauch in 1994-1996.

• He's a deserving All-Star, but it's odd to hear Kurt Suzuki endlessly praised for "handling" a pitching staff that ranks 28th in ERA, especially when pitch-framing stats show him as poor.

• This offseason the Twins were believed to be deciding between Suzuki and John Buck as their veteran catcher addition. Buck hit .226/.293/.286 for the Mariners and just got released.

• I looked this up after watching him leg out a single Monday evening: Kendrys Morales has 48 career infield hits, including at least 10 in three different years. Imagine that.

Eduardo Escobar was hitting .314/.357/.473 on June 15. Since then he's 9-for-66 (.136) with 17 strikeouts and 2 walks. Track records: Trust 'em.

Hisashi Iwakuma owns the Twins, with a 5-0 record and 0.00 ERA in five starts against them.

Vance Worley has a 2.28 ERA and 18/5 K/BB ratio in four starts for the Pirates, who think they've fixed whatever ailed him with the Twins last season.

Pat Neshek, who has a 2.39 ERA since being waived by the Twins in 2011, made his first All-Star team at age 33.

Lew Ford, now 37 years old, is hitting .372 with a .445 on-base percentage and .568 slugging percentage in the independent Atlantic League. And he's the team's hitting coach too.

• One-time Twins minor leaguer Yangervis Solarte turned back into a pumpkin after a big April and May for the Yankees.


This week's blog content is sponsored by Uber, which is offering a free ride to first-time users who sign up with the promo code "UberGleeman."

July 7, 2014

Listen to me on the “No Juice” podcast

no juice podcast

There's no new "Gleeman and The Geek" episode this week for the first time in the show's nearly three-year existence because John Bonnes was on vacation and instead of doing the usual guest co-host thing we decided to just take the Fourth of July holiday weekend off, but you can listen to me as a guest on the "No Juice" podcast with Parker Hageman and Dan Anderson.

"No Juice Podcast" with Aaron Gleeman

There's a good mix of baseball and silliness, so I think you'll like it.

July 4, 2014

Link-O-Rama

Headline of the week/weak: "Thief Forgets To Log Off Facebook After Burglarizing Home."

Molly Fitzpatrick's illustrated guide to the best and worst sleeping positions for couples is all kinds of great.

• In fairness, who among us hasn't gotten lost in a ...

• Next month the A's are holding a "Jewish Heritage Night" and I really want the giveaway hat.

• One of the best and most underrated soul singers of all time, Bobby Womack, died at age 70.

• Someone hacked into the Astros' internal database and leaked 10 months of trade discussions, but sadly there was nothing Twins related to be seen.

Lauryn Hill is one of my favorite musicians, but I skipped her show at First Avenue this week for fear it would be weird and sad. Based on the reviews, I'm going to be kicking myself forever.

• Now retired and 39 years old, Livan Hernandez throws batting practice for the Nationals and mimics opposing pitchers.

• On this week's "Gleeman and The Geek" episode John Bonnes and Kate Butler teamed up to make fun of me for 90 minutes, and then walked a little about the Twins' bad starting pitching.

• Red Sox television analyst Jerry Remy lost a tooth on the air:

"Can you put it back in?"

• There's no "Gleeman and The Geek" show on KFAN this Sunday because my co-host is out of town and it's a holiday weekend, but if you still need to get your fix listen to me as a guest on the "No Juice Podcast" with Parker Hageman and Dan Anderson. We talked about a bunch of weird stuff, including a surprising amount of baseball. If you like me, you'll like it.

• Speaking of the holiday weekend, I'm going to a bunch of Twins-Yankees games at Target Field and this is basically my nightmare.

• A local stripper claims Royals pitchers Bruce Chen and Yordano Ventura weren't the best patrons while in town to play the Twins.

Zach Lowe of Grantland is my favorite basketball writer and his breakdown of Kevin Love and Klay Thompson was very interesting.

• You know the list of celebrities for the All-Star softball game is star-studded when one of them lives in Chanhassen. Oh, and Love has already canceled his scheduled appearance.

• I enjoyed Joe Posnanski's long read about Raul Ibanez the player and the person.

• Friend of AG.com Maggie LaMaack put together some helpful writing tips, including something (that) I'm guilty of regularly.

• What does Jorge Polanco's early Twins debut mean for his future?

• One-time Twins minor leaguer Yangervis Solarte turned back into a pumpkin for the Yankees.

• Finally got sick of my Honda Fit and traded it in.

• I ate No. 1 on this City Pages list Sunday and it's legit, to the point that I've been thinking about it pretty much non-stop since.

Todd Glass was a great guest on "Never Not Funny" with Jimmy Pardo and Matt Belknap.

• Movie recommendation: "They Came Together" starring Amy Poehler and Paul Rudd is a funny parody of romantic comedies and you can rent it on iTunes instead of going to a theater.

• Some of this week's weird and random search engine queries that brought people here:

- "Fat bearded Twins blogger"
- "Three-pork gnocchi Gleeman"
- "What does built like a fire hydrant mean?"
- "Drew Butera dude"
- "Aaron Gleeman brunch"
- "Elisha Cuthbert feet"
- "Perkins restaurant bar stools"

• Finally, in honor of his death this week's AG.com-approved music video is Womack's classic "Across 110th Street":

July 2, 2014

What does Jorge Polanco’s early Twins debut mean for his future?

Jorge Polanco Twins debut

Jorge Polanco's first stint in the big leagues was a brief one and came in something resembling an emergency situation, as the Twins needed infield help and decided to promote a 20-year-old from Single-A rather than make changes to the 40-man roster for a more experienced call-up. In getting five at-bats before a return to the low minors Polanco became just the second Twins player in the Ron Gardenhire era of 2002-2014 to make his MLB debut before age 21.

Joe Mauer is the youngest player to debut under Gardenhire at 20 years and 352 days when he was the Opening Day catcher in 2004, followed by Polanco at 20 years and 356 days last week. Francisco Liriano is the youngest pitcher to debut under Gardenhire at 21 years and 314 days when he appeared as a reliever in September of 2005. In all, 14 players have made their MLB debuts for the Twins before age 23 under Gardenhire. Here's the complete list:

                   YEAR     AGE
Joe Mauer          2004     20.352
Jorge Polanco      2014     20.356
Francisco Liriano  2005     21.314
Oswaldo Arcia      2013     21.341
Justin Morneau     2003     22.026
Alexi Casilla      2006     22.043
Jason Kubel        2004     22.098
Ben Revere         2010     22.127
Rob Bowen          2003     22.189
J.D. Durbin        2004     22.197
Liam Hendriks      2011     22.208
Alex Burnett       2010     22.256
Matt Garza         2006     22.258
Wilson Ramos       2010     22.265

Sort of a mixed bag. Mauer, Liriano, Oswaldo Arcia, Justin Morneau, Jason Kubel, Matt Garza, and Wilson Ramos were all stud prospects on fairly natural, quick paths to the majors, but then there are non-prospects like Rob Bowen and marginal prospects like Alex Burnett who found themselves thrust into the majors to fill short-term roster needs. Polanco falls somewhere in between as a very good but not elite prospect promoted to the majors way ahead of schedule.

Much like Polanco, many of those 14 players listed above had short stints with the Twins as their MLB debuts and quickly headed back to the minors. In fact, even going beyond the debut-making Twins and looking instead at all Twins, the only players to receive regular playing time (more than 300 plate appearances) for the Twins before age 23 under Gardenhire are Mauer, Liriano, Arcia, Delmon Young, Carlos Gomez, and Luis Rivas.

So in 13 seasons under Gardenhire the Twins, who pride themselves on developing homegrown young talent, have given regular playing time to a grand total of six players before age 23. To put that in some context, consider that across baseball during that same period a total of 107 hitters and 130 pitchers logged at least 300 plate appearances before age 23, which works out to an average of 8.5 for each of the other 29 teams.

That shouldn't come as a shock, because the Twins are known for delaying the arrival of certain prospects and studies show that their overall promotion timetables are among baseball's slowest. Whether that's driven mostly by their chosen development philosophy or financial/service time considerations is up for debate--and Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano will hopefully put it to the test in 2015--but whatever the case they don't hand over the keys to many very young players.

All of which is why the decision to promote Polanco from Single-A to the majors for a days-long bench role at age 20 was uncharacteristic for the Twins and why he may not make it back to the big leagues as a regular for quite a while despite the rushed debut. He is, however, a very good prospect who ranked eighth on my annual list of Twins prospects coming into the season and whose stock has risen even further since then.

Polanco signed with the Twins out of the Dominican Republic as a 16-year-old in 2010 and if not for being in the same international prospect class that saw the Twins snag Sano for $3.15 million his $775,000 bonus would have garnered a lot more attention. He didn't hit much in his first two seasons, but Polanco broke out as an 18-year-old at rookie-level Elizabethton in 2012 and has been putting up impressive numbers since.

Polanco lacks power, but he's not completely without pop and currently projects as a potential top-of-the-order hitter thanks to a high contact rate, good batting averages, and increasingly solid patience at the plate. Last season at low Single-A he batted .308 with 47 extra-base hits and 42 walks versus 59 strikeouts in 115 games, and this season at high Single-A he's batted .292 with 21 extra-base hits and 36 walks versus 42 strikeouts in 74 games.

Defensively he split last season between shortstop and second base, but this season Polanco has played exclusively shortstop. His error total there hasn't been pretty and his odds of sticking at shortstop long term seem low, but it's a relatively positive sign that the Twins haven't moved him to second base full time yet. Or at least it's a relatively strong indication that he has a chance to be a very good defensive second baseman if he does move eventually.

It's worth noting that the Twins already have a very good all-around second baseman in Brian Dozier. In fact, during the past calendar year Dozier has been one of the three or four best second baseman in all of baseball, combining good defense with 20-homer power and 20-steal speed. But come, say, 2017, when Dozier is 30 years old and Polanco is 23 years old, the Twins might be ready for a change at the position.


For a lot more about Polanco's debut and his long-term outlook, plus talk of which other Twins prospects could be called up soon, check out this week's "Gleeman and The Geek" episode.

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