April 10, 2015

To catch a prospect: Where to find the Twins’ top minor leaguers

Carmen Sandiego

One of the ways Twins fans can attempt to avoid losing their minds during what looks likely to be a fifth straight forgettable season at Target Field is to keep tabs on what's happening down on the farm. Thanks to high draft picks and veteran-for-prospect trades the Twins have amassed one of MLB's two or three best farm systems and Rule 5 pick J.R. Graham is the lone player from my annual top-40 prospects list to crack the Twins' frustratingly veteran-filled Opening Day roster.

All of which means the Twins' minor-league rosters are jam-packed with quality prospects, so in an effort to help the daily perusal of boxscores here's a breakdown of which top-40 prospects can be found on the season-opening rosters for Triple-A Rochester, Double-A Chattanooga, Single-A Fort Myers, and Single-A Cedar Rapids. Two top-40 prospects, 19-year-old Amaurys Minier and 18-year-old Lewin Diaz, have not been assigned to full-season teams. Here's everyone else.

Rochester Red Wings, Triple-A:

 #4 Alex Meyer
#10 Eddie Rosario
#11 Trevor May
#16 Michael Tonkin
#18 Taylor Rogers
#30 Jason Wheeler
#36 Lester Oliveros
#37 Stephen Pryor
#39 Logan Darnell
#40 A.J. Achter
MLB Aaron Hicks
MLB Josmil Pinto
MLB Caleb Thielbar
MLB Ryan Pressly

Rochester's rotation features four top-40 prospects in Alex Meyer, Trevor May, Taylor Rogers, and Jason Wheeler, plus a fifth starter in Mark Hamburger who's intriguing despite being too old for prospect status at 28. Rochester's bullpen has five top-40 prospects in Michael Tonkin, Lester Oliveros, Stephen Pryor, Logan Darnell, and A.J. Achter, plus two experienced big leaguers who had strong cases to make the Twins' roster in Caleb Thielbar and Ryan Pressly.

In all 11 of the 13 pitchers on Rochester's roster are either current top-40 prospects or former top-40 prospects who've spent too much time in the majors to be considered prospects, with the lone exceptions being Hamburger and 2010 third-round draft pick Pat Dean. If you set aside Phil Hughes and Glen Perkins it's not that tough to make a case for Rochester's pitching staff--or at minimum the bullpen--having more upside than their counterparts with the Twins.

Offensively the Red Wings aren't quite as stocked with prospects, placing only Eddie Rosario in this year's top 40. However, he'll share an outfield with former top-40 regular Aaron Hicks and Rochester will use Josmil Pinto as a catcher/designated hitter. Eric Fryer, Argenis Diaz, Eric Farris, Brock Peterson, and Doug Bernier are also on the roster after all previously getting cups of coffee in the majors. Rochester is managed by former Cubs manager Mike Quade.

Chattanooga Lookouts, Double-A:

 #1 Byron Buxton
 #2 Miguel Sano
 #3 Jose Berrios
 #7 Jorge Polanco
 #9 Nick Burdi
#15 Max Kepler
#17 Adam Walker
#21 Jake Reed
#22 Travis Harrison
#23 Zack Jones
#28 Stuart Turner
#31 Tyler Duffey
#38 Levi Michael

In their first year with Chattanooga as the Double-A affiliate the Twins sent the Lookouts perhaps the most stacked collection of prospects in team history. No. 1 prospect Byron Buxton and No. 2 prospect Miguel Sano alone would be enough to make Chattanooga a prospect haven and they're joined in the lineup by six other top-40 prospects in Jorge Polanco, Max Kepler, Adam Walker, Travis Harrison, Stuart Turner, and Levi Michael.

It can't compare to that incredibly stacked lineup, but in any other circumstance the Lookouts' pitching staff would be considered loaded with prospects. No. 3 prospect Jose Berrios headlines the rotation and No. 9 prospect Nick Burdi leads the bullpen. And there are three other pitchers from the top 40 in Jake Reed, Zack Jones, and Tyler Duffey, plus former top-40 regulars Alex Wimmers and Adrian Salcedo trying to resurrect their prospect status.

Chattanooga is home to the Twins' top three prospects and five of the system's top 10 prospects, including an MLB-wide top-three prospect in Buxton, a second consensus top-20 prospect in Sano, and a third consensus top-50 prospect in Berrios. In all the Lookouts have 13 prospects in the top 40, including 10 of the top 25. Oh, and if that wasn't enough to make keeping tabs on their games interesting Chattanooga is managed by Doug Mientkiewicz.

Fort Myers Miracle, Single-A:

 #5 Kohl Stewart
#19 Chin-Wei Hu
#24 Mitch Garver
#25 Aaron Slegers
#27 Brandon Peterson
#34 Ryan Eades

Fort Myers' roster is a barren prospect wasteland compared to Rochester and Chattanooga, but it will be home to the No. 4 pick in last year's draft, right-hander Kohl Stewart, who ranks as the Twins' fifth-best prospect and would be the top prospect in several organizations. Fellow top-40 prospects Chih-Wei Hu, Aaron Slegers, and Ryan Eades join him in the rotation and will throw to a top-40 prospect in catcher Mitch Garver. For a typical Single-A team this is lots of talent.

Cedar Rapids Kernels, Single-A:

 #6 Nick Gordon
 #8 Lewis Thorpe
#12 Stephen Gonsalves
#14 Michael Cederoth
#26 Max Murphy
#32 Sam Clay
#33 Tanner English

Cedar Rapids has another well-stocked collection of prospects, although instead of beginning his season in the Kernels' rotation No. 8 prospect Lewis Thorpe will miss the entire season following Tommy John elbow surgery. Even without Thorpe the rotation includes a pair of top-15 prospects in Stephen Gonsalves and Michael Cederoth, plus last year's fourth-round draft pick Sam Clay in the bullpen and several top-40 near misses in assorted roles.

The headliner at Cedar Rapids is the No. 5 pick in last year's draft, shortstop Nick Gordon, and Cedar Rapids' outfield has a pair of intriguing top-40 prospects who're coming off excellent 2014 pro debuts in Max Murphy and Tanner English. If the rosters weren't so stacked at Double-A and Triple-A the collection of talent playing for manager Jake Mauer at low Single-A would be getting more attention.


This week's blog content is sponsored by Uber, which is offering a free ride to first-time users who sign up with the promo code "UberGleeman."

April 8, 2015

Ervin Santana suspended 80 games, Twins turn back to Mike Pelfrey

Ervin Santana Twins

Well, at least Mike Pelfrey is happy again.

This offseason the Twins signed Ervin Santana to a four-year, $55 million deal that stands as the largest free agent contract in team history and now, before he could even throw a pitch in a game that counts, he's been suspended for half the season. Santana tested positive for a substance on MLB's banned performance-enhancing drug list called Stanozolol, which he claimed in a statement entered his system without his knowledge:

I am frustrated that I can't pinpoint how the substance in question entered my body. What I can guarantee is I never knowingly took anything illegal to enhance my performance. That's just not me, never has been and never will.

I serve as a role model for many kids in my home country who dream of playing at the highest level. I would never put baseball, my family, or my country in a position where its integrity is jeopardized. I preach hard work and don't believe in short cuts. Moving forward, I need to be more careful on what I consume in my home country. I will be more vigilant of medications I take so that I don't commit another mistake.

Whatever. I'm not someone who cares about the moral implications of performance enhancement, so Santana using the common excuse of not knowing how a banned substance got into his body just means he's claiming ignorance and bad luck rather than malice. He either took a banned substance in an effort to improve his performance and got caught or took a banned substance unintentionally with no ties to performance and got caught. Either way he's suspended until July.

Santana's suspension is without pay and the Twins will receive a $6.7 million refund on his $13.5 million salary for this season. Instead of owing him $55 million for four years they owe him $48.3 million for three-and-a-half years, which is arguably an even worse deal because teams typically are willing to overpay free agents at the end of their contracts in order to get strong performances at the beginning. Oh, and the Twins still forfeit a second-round draft pick for signing Santana.

Rather than use Santana's suspension as an opportunity for the rotation to get younger the Twins stuck with their frustrating spring training approach of giving every open roster spot to the older, more expensive, lower-upside option. Pelfrey, who lost the fifth-starter battle to Tommy Milone and supposedly also finished behind Trevor May, moves back into the rotation after voicing his displeasure with a bullpen role. May remains at Triple-A, with Alex Meyer.

There's a tendency to overstate the impact of a suspension like Santana's for the same reason many people have a hard time wrapping their heads around the notion that MVP-caliber players are worth "only" six or eight wins above a replacement-level player. However, if you dig into the numbers even a little bit it's pretty clear that being without Santana for three months isn't going to wreck the team unless the team was already a wreck.

Santana is 33 years old and has a 4.17 career ERA, including 3.95 last season (in the NL) and 4.06 from 2012-2014. Most projections for 2015 pegged Santana between 4.00 and 4.75. Even assuming he'd have stayed healthy and thrown 90-100 innings during the 80-game suspension the difference between Santana with, say, a 4.25 ERA and his replacements with, say, a 5.50 ERA is 10-15 runs. Typically every 10 runs is worth about one win.

Or instead think of it this way: Last season the Twins went 70-92 (.432), including 50-80 (.385) in games not started by Phil Hughes. Based on that to go .500 in Santana's starts would seemingly be a positive outcome. That means 8-8 during an 80-game suspension. If his replacements are two full games worse the team would be 6-10 (.375) in those same starts. To be four full games worse would mean a 4-12 (.250) record, which is really, really bad. Even for Pelfrey.

Anything can happen, of course, but that "anything" also means the replacements could perform better than Santana. Whether in terms of runs allowed or in terms of the team's record in his starts, it seems realistic to say Santana's suspension is most likely to cost one or two wins. That certainly hurts, but for the Twins the embarrassment and frustration probably hurts more than the actual lost games and they're choosing to inflict even more pain by turning back to Pelfrey.


For a lengthy discussion about the Santana suspension, plus the Twins' rotation plans in the short and long term, check out this week's "Gleeman and The Geek" episode.

April 6, 2015

Gleeman and The Geek #188: Santana’s Suspension and AL Central Over/Unders

Topics for this week's "Gleeman and The Geek" episode included Ervin Santana being suspended for 80 games, over/under win totals for the Twins and other AL Central teams, laughing at a funeral, Josmil Pinto losing the backup catcher job, Mike Pelfrey getting his wish, Kyle Gibson needing to step up, and basically everyone outside of Minnesota predicting the Twins will stink again.

Gleeman and The Geek: Episode 188

In addition to the direct download link above you can also subscribe to the podcast via iTunes.


This week's blog content is sponsored by Uber, which is offering a free ride to first-time users who sign up with the promo code "UberGleeman."

April 3, 2015

Season preview: Are the Twins ready to stop losing?

Paul Molitor

Nearly everyone involved with the Twins, from players and new manager Paul Molitor to general manager Terry Ryan and owner Jim Pohlad, seems convinced the team is poised to take a big step forward. Nearly everyone not involved with the Twins, from national writers and Las Vegas oddsmakers to numbers-driven projection systems and cranky local bloggers, seems convinced the team is headed for another last-place finish and possibly a fifth straight 90-loss season.

Sports Illustrated picks the Twins for last place and 67 wins. ESPN.com picks the Twins for last place and 68 wins. Baseball Prospectus projects the Twins for last place and 71 wins. Bovada sets the Twins' over/under win total at 72.5. FanGraphs projects the Twins for last place and 74 wins. Grantland picks the Twins for last place and "under 75 wins." CBS Sports picks the Twins for last place. Yahoo Sports picks the Twins for last place. You get the idea.

Last year the Twins were 72-90. Then they fired Ron Gardenhire after 13 seasons as manager, handed out the largest free agent contract in team history to 32-year-old Ervin Santana at $55 million over four years, brought back Torii Hunter for a $10.5 million reunion at age 39, signed 33-year-old reliever Tim Stauffer for $2.2 million, and bypassed young talent in favor of veteran mediocrity for every roster spot up for grabs in spring training.

Those are all the moves of an organization that's sick of losing and also sick of their plummeting fan morale and season ticket sales. They spent big on veterans and further delayed the arrival of prospects, leading to an Opening Day roster with just four players who're 25 years old or younger in shortstop Danny Santana, left fielder Oswaldo Arcia, designated hitter Kennys Vargas, and Rule 5 pick J.R. Graham.

This is a rebuilding team in the sense that the Twins have been very bad and are still attempting to get back on track, but it's anything but a young team. Kyle Gibson is the youngest member of the starting rotation at 27. Graham is the only member of the seven-reliever bullpen under 30. Six of the nine starting position players are at least 28. In terms of their collective average ages, the rotation is 30, the bullpen is 31, and the lineup is 29.

When the reality of the Twins' organizational collapse finally sunk in around mid-2012 or so the idea was that they'd be back to contending by now, but injuries ruined those plans. Joe Mauer's concussion derailed his career and turned him from a Hall of Fame-caliber catcher to a mediocre first baseman. Instead of making their MLB debuts Miguel Sano missed all of last year following elbow surgery and Byron Buxton missed all but 31 games with a wrist injury and a concussion.

Buxton and Sano will begin this season as teammates at Double-A, the Twins sent 25-year-old pitching prospects Alex Meyer, Trevor May, and Michael Tonkin back to Triple-A rather than trust them with roster spots that went to Tommy Milone, Mike Pelfrey, and Blaine Boyer, and after back-to-back Opening Day starts in center field Aaron Hicks is back in Rochester too. Toss in Arcia's development stagnating a bit and it's easy to see where the rebuild sputtered.

The good news is Buxton and Sano remain superstar-caliber prospects, Meyer and May still have enough upside to project as impact pitchers in some role, and there's another wave of prospects coming soon led by Jose Berrios, Jorge Polanco, and Nick Burdi. The bad news is none of that figures to actually help the Twins win many games before the All-Star break. Sadly, being a Twins fan in 2015 is still more about waiting for help to arrive than watching it play at Target Field.

Brian Dozier; Danny Santana

There's a lot of optimism surrounding the Twins' offense after the lineup produced the fifth-most runs in the American League last season, but building on or even duplicating that performance is hardly a sure thing. For starters, Santana was the only hitter on the team to crack an .800 OPS last season, coming out of nowhere to hit .319/.353/.473 as a rookie after batting .273/.314/.388 in the minors while failing to top a .725 OPS at Single-A, Double-A, or Triple-A.

Santana is good enough, young enough, and skilled enough to buy into reevaluating his upside compared to what his minor-league track record suggested, but his rookie success was still driven by an unsustainable .405 batting average on balls in play and came despite an ugly 98/19 K/BB ratio. The combination of a so-so track record, poor plate discipline, and a high batting average on balls in play makes him a prime regression candidate.

Brian Dozier also needs to fight his track record to show his 2014 was for real, albeit to a lesser extent than Santana. He was the Twins' best all-around position player, hitting .245/.345/.416 with 23 homers, 21 steals, 89 walks, and solid defense to rank among the top half-dozen second basemen in MLB. Clearly the Twins buy into Dozier's age-27 breakout, but prior to 2014 he hit just .240/.297/.384 in the majors and .232/.286/.337 at Triple-A.

Kurt Suzuki was another source of unexpectedly strong offense, hitting .288/.345/.383 to make his first All-Star team at age 30. As with Dozier the Twins bought into his resurgence with a new contract, but Suzuki hit .253/.313/.362 in the second half to resemble his measly .237/.294/.357 line from 2010-2013. Jordan Schafer's track record strongly suggests he'll be unable to repeat his 41-game Twins showing and Hunter is fighting father time at age 39.

All of which isn't to say the lineup lacks the ability to improve in spots. Mauer getting back to his usual self would be huge and he hit .300 with a .400 on-base percentage in his final 55 games. Arcia should take a step forward at age 24 and is capable of breaking out with a better approach. But for the most part more hitters are likely to decline than improve, some by wide margins. Of course, Buxton and Sano showing up in May or June ready to thrive could change everything.

Then there's defense, which has played an overlooked part in the Twins' struggles as the focus tends to be on the "pitching" rather than the run prevention of pitching plus defense. Combined from 2011-2014 the Twins ranked 28th in Ultimate Zone Rating at 90 runs below average and 24th in Defensive Runs Saved at 115 runs below average. They've been horrendous, especially in the outfield, which is doubly bad combined with fly-ball, strikeout-phobic pitching staffs.

Infield defense may not be bad because Dozier is solid at second base, Santana has the skills to be a plus shortstop, Trevor Plouffe showed big improvement at third base, and Mauer is fine at first base. However, the outfield is guaranteed to be a major weakness again. Arcia and Hunter were two of MLB's worst defensive corner outfielders last year and it's asking a lot of Schafer (or Hicks) to cover up their mess when he's actually gotten below average marks in center field.

Phil Hughes Twins

Last offseason the Twins gave a four-year, $49 million deal to Ricky Nolasco and a three-year, $24 million contract to Phil Hughes, and this offseason they took the uncharacteristic pursuit of free agent pitching even further by signing Santana for $55 million. Hughes got three years and $42 million tacked on to his previous deal following a breakout 2014 season and the Twins have Pelfrey and Milone under contract for a combined $8.5 million in 2015.

That's a lot of resources devoted to veteran starters and there's also a hidden cost that comes with having pitchers with guaranteed salaries locked into rotation spots that might otherwise be handed over to prospects. Hughes is signed through 2019, Santana is signed through 2018, Nolasco is signed through 2017, and even though Pelfrey and Milone aren't signed beyond this season the Twins were still hesitant to push them aside.

Hughes was a tremendous find on what was a very reasonable free agent contract that the Twins turned into a much bigger commitment. He logged 210 innings and pitched even better than his solid 3.52 ERA, striking out 186 and walking 16 for the best strikeout-to-walk ratio in the history of baseball. Asking for a repeat of that performance is wishful thinking, but Hughes seemed like a truly different pitcher last season and enters this year as a clear-cut No. 1 starter.

Santana was signed to take over the No. 2 spot and what he lacks in upside he makes up for in durability, although he's probably more of a No. 3 starter on a contending team. Nolasco looked like a No. 3 starter when the Twins gave him $49 million last offseason, but then pitched horribly for several months before revealing he was hurt and is now a question mark the Twins no doubt regret signing.

Gibson is the lone homegrown pitcher in the rotation and the former top prospect finally broke through last season to throw 179 innings in 31 starts. He was wildly inconsistent, but the end result was a 4.47 ERA in a league where the average starter was below 4.00. Inducing lots of ground balls helps Gibson make up for a lack of missed bats, but at age 27 and with just 5.4 strikeouts per nine innings his upside looks limited to the back of the rotation.

Milone beat out Pelfrey and May for the fifth spot and the soft-tossing left-hander will try to show that his awful post-trade performance for the Twins was due to a benign tumor in his neck that required surgery. Milone was a solid back-of-the-rotation starter for the A's, but Oakland's pitcher-friendly ballpark overstated his effectiveness and helped compensate for a mid-80s fastball. He has a 4.80 career ERA in non-Oakland ballparks.

If the goal was to put together a rotation less likely to be a disaster than the 2011-2014 versions the Twins absolutely accomplished that, but the price tags indicate they have much higher hopes and that may be pushing things. This is the worst rotation in the AL Central even if it's assumed Hughes will avoid turning back into a pumpkin and there isn't much upside unless Meyer and/or May hit the ground running soon. And compared to the bullpen the rotation is a strength.

Glen Perkins was one of the elite relievers in baseball for 3.5 seasons before melting down late last year while pitching through an injury. The bullpen desperately needs him to be his pre-injury self or things could get very ugly. Casey Fien is the primary setup man. Brian Duensing, who was a non-tender candidate, is the only lefty. Stauffer and Boyer have prominent roles and the Twins are hoping Pelfrey's one-pitch arsenal fits better in relief. It's an underwhelming group.


This should be the least-awful Twins team since 2010, but that's not saying much and confidence in even that mild statement dropped when they stacked the roster with Pelfrey, Milone, Duensing, Boyer, Schafer, Stauffer, Shane Robinson, Chris Herrmann, and Eduardo Nunez. That's a lot of self-imposed dreck for a team with better, younger options and there's a depressingly strong chance the same "are the Twins ready to stop losing?" question can be asked 365 days from now.

March 31, 2015

Opening Day roster takes shape as Twins choose veterans over upside

aaron hicks september1

Some were expected and some were unexpected, but all of the Twins' slew of roster moves skew toward veteran mediocrity. Jordan Schafer is the starting center fielder and Shane Robinson is his backup, with both Aaron Hicks and Eddie Rosario sent to Triple-A. Tommy Milone is the fifth starter, Mike Pelfrey stays on the roster as a reliever, and Blaine Boyer also has a bullpen spot, with Trevor May, Alex Meyer, and Michael Tonkin all sent back at Triple-A.

When viewed individually the moves have reasonable explanations, but collectively they signal that despite the switch from Ron Gardenhire to Paul Molitor the Twins still fetishize age and experience even when it comes attached to poor performances and nonexistent upside. This is a team projected to finish in last place following four straight 90-loss seasons and they're still doing whatever they can to delay fully turning the keys over to the prospects they've been stockpiling.

Two years ago the Twins traded away Denard Span and Ben Revere in the same offseason and handed Hicks the center field job at age 23 and with zero experience at Triple-A. He'd played very well that spring to help convince them it was the right move, but flopped once the games counted and was one of the worst rookies in Twins history. Last season, following another strong spring performance, the Twins handed Hicks the center field job again and he again struggled.

This time around it seemed like Hicks had the inside track on a third crack at the Opening Day gig, in part because Molitor seemed at least a little bit less fed up with Hicks than Gardenhire had been and in part because the alternatives were lacking. But when Hicks hit .206 this spring and failed to make some plays defensively they decided not to bother, demoting him back to Rochester while splitting center field between a 28-year-old waiver claim and a 30-year-old minor-league signing.

Schafer will get the bulk of the starts in center field after playing well in 41 games last year when the Twins claimed him off waivers from the Braves. Matching that .285/.345/.362 line while stealing bases and playing decent defense would make Schafer a solid regular, but the problem is that there's nothing in his track record to suggest he's anywhere near that capable offensively and his defensive numbers are sub par in center field.

Schafer has 1,400 plate appearances in the majors and has hit .229/.311/.310 with 360 strikeouts and 142 walks. And he was even worse at Triple-A, hitting .225/.278/.294 with 95 strikeouts and 35 walks in 120 games. He's been particularly helpless against left-handed pitching, hitting .167 off them as a big leaguer. If you're going to play Schafer regularly it should be only versus right-handed pitching, so in theory a platoon with the right-handed-hitting Robinson makes sense.

Robinson can't hit either, unfortunately. He's a .231/.303/.308 hitter in 452 plate appearances in the majors and a .266/.331/.377 hitter in 1,130 plate appearances at Triple-A. Spotting him only versus lefties would help Robinson in the same way that, say, only eating McDonald's twice a week would help a diet. If you're going to use Schafer and Robinson a righty/lefty platoon makes sense, but it's still probably going to be a really bad platoon.

Hicks' remaining window of opportunity with the Twins was narrow to begin with because they've got the best outfield prospect in baseball, Byron Buxton, starting the year at Double-A, but the Twins couldn't even stand to let Hicks keep the position warm until Buxton is ready. That doesn't mean Hicks is a totally lost cause any more than handing him the Opening Day job in 2013 (or 2014) meant he was totally ready to thrive, but it does mean he might be done in Minnesota.

As more and more people jump on the "Hicks just can't hit MLB pitching" bandwagon, it's worth noting that he already has hit MLB pitching as long as it's left-handed. Hicks has a .758 career OPS off lefties, which is higher than, among others, Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau. And the switch-hitter had similar splits in the minors. If there's any role for which Hicks is actually suited it's platooning against lefties, but instead the Twins will use Robinson in that same role.

For all the talk of Rosario having an impressive spring training he ended up hitting .233/.227/.442 with nine strikeouts and zero walks in 17 games. Spring training numbers aren't worth much and there's certainly plenty he could have done outside of actual games to impress the Twins' coaches, but when your batting average is higher than your on-base percentage and your strikeout-to-walk ratio is infinity that suggests there's some more development needed.

Rosario also struggled at Double-A last season, missing the first 50 games while suspended for marijuana and then hitting just .237/.277/.396 with a 68/17 K/BB ratio in 79 games. Perhaps the spring hype surrounding Rosario was mostly driven by the team's lack of faith in Hicks and their hope that Rosario would step forward as an alternative. Instead they saw what his track record shows, which is a talented 23-year-old with lots of rough edges and zero high-minors success.

Tommy Milone Twins

Milone was horrible for the Twins after they acquired him from the A's for Sam Fuld on July 31, but it was revealed later that he was pitching hurt and needed surgery to remove a benign tumor from his neck. Prior to the trade Milone was a solid back-of-the-rotation starter, albeit one with mid-80s velocity and little upside. He's still relatively young at 28 and still relatively cheap at $3 million, but the Twins have younger, cheaper, higher-upside options in May or Meyer.

Pelfrey made it clear that he's upset about being moved to the bullpen, saying the Twins never intended to make the fifth starter competition a fair fight. He might be right, but certainly there was no bias against Pelfrey when the Twins signed him for $5 million and then re-signed him for $11 million. He's given them plenty of reason for bias during the past two seasons by going 5-16 with a 5.56 ERA and getting hurt.

Pelfrey is a 31-year-old former top-10 draft pick who's spent a decade in the majors without ever making more than two relief appearances in a season, so it's easy to see why he'd be against the idea of full-time bullpen work. However, given his lack of success as a starter, durability concerns following multiple injuries, and career-long inability to develop useful secondary pitches to pair with a hard fastball relief work may suit him best. Or at least less bad.

He throws basically one pitch and that tends not to cut it as a starter, which is why Pelfrey has a 4.56 career ERA with 5.2 strikeouts per nine innings. However, being a one-pitch pitcher can be much less of an issue when you're only working an inning at a time and if Pelfrey can follow in the footsteps of many starters-turned-relievers by adding 2-3 miles per hour to his fastball the Twins might have something. Or he might just be a bad pitcher. You know, Occam's razor and all.

May is 25 years old with 400 innings between Double-A and Triple-A, and amid an awful overall debut he posted a 41/9 K/BB ratio in his final 37 innings. Meyer is also 25 and started 27 games at Triple-A last season, leading the league in strikeouts. Neither is a can't-miss prospects by any means, but they've pitched well in the minors, throw hard while generating strikeouts, and unlike Milone or Pelfrey might actually be part of the next good Twins team.

Tonkin and his mid-90s fastball are going back to Triple-A for a third straight season at age 25 despite being good there with a 3.48 ERA and 82/20 K/BB ratio in 78 innings and being good for the Twins when given a chance with a 3.26 ERA and 26/9 K/BB ratio in 30 innings. They opted to keep Boyer, a 33-year-old journeyman with a 4.63 ERA, poor control, and just 191 strikeouts in 274 innings who was signed to a minor-league deal in January.

Spring training presented the Twins with plenty of opportunities to fill the margins of the roster with younger, unproven, higher-upside players, many of whom already have significant Triple-A experience. May and Meyer were viable fifth starter and long reliever options. Hicks and Rosario each could have started or platooned in center field. Tonkin could have taken his first extended shot at a setup role and there were also several other intriguing bullpen candidates.

Instead they'll all keep waiting, often in Rochester for a second or third go-around, in favor of proven veteran mediocrity like Pelfrey, Milone, Schafer, Eduardo Nunez, Boyer, and Robinson. Barring last-minute changes the Opening Day roster will include a grand total of just four players who're 25 years old or younger: Designated hitter Kennys Vargas, shortstop Danny Santana, left fielder Oswaldo Arcia, and Rule 5 pick J.R. Graham. Twins will have to keep waiting too.


For a lengthy--and surprisingly heated--discussion of the Twins' roster decisions, check out this week's "Gleeman and The Geek" episode.

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