November 12, 2014

Examining the Twins’ free agent options: Outfielders

Most teams coming off four straight 90-loss seasons have obvious holes all over the roster, but the Twins' lineup is pretty well set for 2015. Kurt Suzuki has a new two-year deal at catcher and first baseman Joe Mauer is signed through 2018. Brian Dozier isn't going anywhere at second base and shortstop will be filled by Eduardo Escobar and/or Danny Santana. Trevor Plouffe played well enough to stay at third base, at least until Miguel Sano is ready after elbow surgery.

Santana or Aaron Hicks will do the same type of seat-holding for Byron Buxton in center field and Oswaldo Arcia will man an outfield corner, presumably right field. Designated hitter can be filled by Kennys Vargas and/or Josmil Pinto. All of which leaves left field as the only clear spot that needs filling for 2015 and making a big splash with a long-term solution seems unlikely since post-surgery Sano, Eddie Rosario, or another prospect may be there by 2016.

Finding a veteran outfielder to provide 2015 help without blocking younger options and eating up future payroll would seemingly be a smart approach for the Twins and in looking over this year's free agent crop quite a few players fit that bill reasonably well. Here, in alphabetical order, are nine free agents who strike me as a worthwhile option or strike me as someone the Twins will view as a worthwhile option. Or both.


Norichika AokiNorichika Aoki: He's hit .287/.353/.387 in the majors, going 3-for-3 in solid seasons since coming over from Japan at age 30. Aoki had MLB's third-lowest strikeout rate from 2012-2014--one spot ahead of ex-Twins contact machine Ben Revere--and draws a decent number of walks while having the speed to steal 15-20 bases. All of which would make his left-handed bat a nice fit atop the lineup. During the playoffs Aoki's shaky routes in right field for the Royals stood out, but his defensive numbers have been just fine in all three outfield spots. At age 33 and unlikely to command big money, he seems like an ideal stop gap until the Twins decide who they want in left field long term.


2013 San Diego Padres Photo DayChris Denorfia: After a nice four-season run as a very productive part-timer Denorfia slipped to .230/.284/.318 in 121 games for the Padres and Mariners last season and at age 34 the risk is that his decline is permanent. However, from 2010-2013 he hit .280/.338/.414 in 484 games despite calling the majors' most pitcher-friendly ballpark home. Denorfia is also a plus defensive corner outfielder with the ability to handle center field if needed and has the speed to swipe 10-15 bases. Ideally he'd be used in a platoon role versus mostly lefties, but as a short-term solution Denorfia could be a regular if the Twins were willing to sacrifice offense for defense in a corner.


2014 Seattle Mariners Photo DayCorey Hart: Who knows. Hart was one of the best right-handed power hitters in baseball for the Brewers from 2010-2012, batting .279/.343/.514 with 31, 26, and 30 homers. Then he missed all of 2013 with a knee injury and was a mess for the Mariners this season, hitting .203/.271/.319 in 68 games. Hart is 6-foot-6 and was known for having great speed and range for his size, starting 41 games in center field and twice stealing more than 20 bases. Knee problems, time off, and normal aging may have ruined that skill set and it'd be crazy to offer Hart significant guaranteed money, but as a bounceback candidate he wouldn't be the worst idea as a cheap pickup.


Detroit Tigers Photo DayTorii Hunter: Not surprisingly the Twins have reportedly expressed interest in a reunion with Hunter, who left as a free agent in 2008. Hunter was 31 years old at the time, but his hitting actually improved after leaving. Even this season, at age 38, he hit .286/.319/.446 with 17 homers in 142 games. Defensively, however, Hunter has gone from being an elite center fielder to being one of the worst right fielders. During the past two seasons he was 22 runs below average in Ultimate Zone Rating and 28 runs below average in Defensive Runs Saved. Hunter and Arcia as the corner outfielders could be ugly, although the haze of nostalgia might keep a lot of people from realizing it.


Baltimore Orioles Photo DayNick Markakis: As a top-10 draft pick and stud prospect who had some big years early in his career Markakis looked like a long-term star, but now he's 31 years old with a .435 career slugging percentage. Combined during the past three seasons he hit .279/.342/.396. By comparison, Aoki hit .287/.353/.387 over that span. Markakis has a great defensive reputation, including a pair of Gold Glove awards, but the numbers do not view him as especially strong in the field. He's a superior all-around player with far more upside than Aoki, but you get the idea. He'd be a fine fit for the Twins, but my guess is that Markakis is going to get paid for his reputation rather than his actual production.


michael morseMichael Morse: After an injury wrecked 2013 season Morse was his usual self, hitting .279/.336/.475 with 16 homers in 131 games for the Giants to nearly match his .281/.335/.473 career line. Morse swings at everything, but doesn't strike out a ton and has hit above .275 in four of the past five seasons. And few right-handed bats have more power. Unfortunately he's a butcher defensively. Among all left fielders since 2011 he's dead last in Ultimate Zone Rating at 22 runs below average per 150 games. For some Twins-related context, Jason Kubel is -14, Josh Willingham is -10, and Delmon Young is -10. He should be a designated hitter, which the Twins don't need.


2013 Toronto Blue Jays Photo DayColby Rasmus: His production has varied wildly and he has a reputation for being a doofus, but Rasmus is an under-30 center fielder with 25-homer power and a .751 career OPS. It remains to be seen if new manager Paul Molitor is more open-minded to platooning than Ron Gardenhire, but Rasmus is a career .257/.323/.465 hitter off righties and struggles against lefties. Rasmus in left field would go a long way toward improving the defense without sacrificing any power and if he balks at that using him in center field until Buxton is ready may not be a bad idea either. I'd avoid any sort of major commitment, but Rasmus' skill set at age 28 is very intriguing.


2014 Texas Rangers Photo DayAlex Rios: For nearly a decade Rios was one of the better, most underrated corner outfielders in baseball. His lack of big-time power kept him under the radar, but Rios was a solid hitter who averaged 20 homers and 25 steals per 150 games from 2006-2013 and had center field-caliber range defensively. His offense and defense have slipped at age 34, causing the Rangers to decline his $13.5 million option, but Rios has been right around an average hitter for the past two seasons and could still get to plenty of fly balls in left field. Injuries sapped his production in 2014, but Rios played 145 or more games every year from 2007-2013 and is one season removed from 18 homers and 42 steals.


Milwaukee Brewers Photo DayRickie Weeks: I have no idea if Weeks would be willing to play left field. He was the Brewers' starting second baseman from 2005-2013 and then turned down a chance to play left field after losing the job to Scooter Gennett. He's never been a good defender and has struggled to stay healthy, so perhaps at age 32 he'd be more open to a position switch. Weeks hit .274/.357/.452 in a part-time role this season and has averaged 20 homers and 65 walks per 150 games for his career to make up for poor batting averages. If he's interested in trying to re-establish himself as a corner outfielder offer Weeks a one-year deal with the promise of an everyday role.


This week's blog content is sponsored by Uber, which is offering a free ride to first-time users who sign up with the promo code "UberGleeman."

November 10, 2014

Gleeman and The Geek #170: The New Regime

Topics for this week's "Gleeman and The Geek" episode included Paul Molitor officially being hired as Twins manager, a Torii Hunter reunion, Tom Brunansky returning as hitting coach, last week's impromptu chat with Tim McIntosh, drinking and talking beer at Town Hall Brewery, thoughts from Molitor's press conference, bad newspaper columnists, good bourbon, and being woken up by Molitor on a Saturday morning.

Gleeman and The Geek: Episode 170

In addition to the direct download link above you can also subscribe to the podcast via iTunes.

Here's what it looked like at Town Hall Brewery during the podcast:

town hall brewery podcast


This week's blog content is sponsored by Uber, which is offering a free ride to first-time users who sign up with the promo code "UberGleeman."

November 5, 2014

Twins hire Paul Molitor as manager

Paul Molitor and Ron Gardenhire

It took five weeks and interviews with at least a half-dozen candidates, but in the end the Twins' new manager is the guy everyone always assumed would get the job: Paul Molitor.

Molitor is a Minnesota native with a long history in the organization and spent this season on the coaching staff, so hiring him isn't exactly the massive change many people envisioned when the Twins fired Ron Gardenhire after 13 seasons as manager and 27 seasons in the organization. For a decade fans and media members clamored for Molitor to join Gardenhire's staff and as soon as Gardenhire's job security looked shaky Molitor became the presumed manager-in-waiting.

None of which means he's the wrong choice for the job now. He lacks managing experience at any level and went nearly a decade without being a full-time coach at any level, but during his Hall of Fame playing career and in retirement Molitor has established a reputation for being an incredibly smart baseball mind. He's also earned praise for working with young players, communicating well, and walking the thin line between being likeable and being respected.

Hall of Fame players rarely go into managing, presumably because they're satisfied enough with their legacy, financial standing, and post-career options to stave off whichever competitive juices continue to flow. And when Hall of Fame players have gone into managing the results have been underwhelming to say the least, with the most frequent criticism being that a great, immensely talented player has trouble managing and relating to lesser talents.

Molitor's legacy is a spectacular one, especially in Minnesota, and after earning more than $40 million in salary as a player he could have easily filled his time with various media opportunities and part-time coaching roles. And for years he did just that, filling in for fellow Hall of Famer Bert Blyleven occasionally on television broadcasts and spending spring training in Fort Myers as a roving instructor.

However, something within Molitor clearly kept pulling him back toward baseball in a major way. Outsiders like me could hear it in his voice whenever he talked passionately and expertly about something as potentially mundane as getting a great jump off a pitcher on stolen base attempts and insiders almost without exception raved about his passion, intelligence, and hard work. And they did so often.

For instance, while recording this week's "Gleeman and The Geek" episode Saturday, shortly after news of Molitor getting the job began making the rounds, we spotted someone a few bar stools down wearing a Yankees World Series ring. It turned out to be Tim McIntosh, who played for the Gophers, was the Brewers' third-round draft pick in 1986, and played parts of five seasons in the majors.

Not only did McIntosh play with Molitor in the big leagues, he also had experience with Molitor the mentor and Molitor the coach. And after being told the news of Molitor's impending hiring by two strangers in a bar McIntosh's eyes lit up. He talked to us for 30 minutes on the microphone and another 20 minutes off the microphone about how thrilled he was for Molitor and how he strongly believed Molitor is a fantastic choice uniquely qualified to thrive despite a lack of experience.

And that's essentially the argument in favor of choosing Molitor. He lacks experience, there are questions about how he'll handle the day-to-day grind of the job on and off the field, and as the favorite in-house candidate the decision seems like more of the same for the Twins in many ways. But you'll be hard-pressed to find people who've seen Molitor in action as a player, as a coach, or as a guy simply hanging out to talk baseball who doesn't rave about his expertise and intelligence.

Red Sox bench coach Torey Lovullo finished runner-up to Molitor, with speculation he may have gotten the job with more support from ownership, which is interesting given how different their resumes look. Lovullo was a journeyman player with 308 games in the majors and 1,433 games in the minors, plus a season in Japan. He managed nine seasons in the minors, winning division titles at Single-A, Double-A, and Triple-A, and has coached in the majors in a variety of roles.

Lovullo is also known for being analytical, well versed in modern stats, and genuinely interested in sabermetrics, which along with his vast experience working his way up through the coaching and managing ranks is what intrigued me. Molitor doesn't have quite the stat-head reputation, but it's worth noting that he played a big role in getting Gardenhire's staff to finally dip their toes in the analytical pool this season and was credited with the team's dramatic increase in defensive shifts.

Molitor may not be a full-blown stat-head like Lovullo, but he's smart, intellectually curious about how new-school knowledge can help a team win, and at age 58 showed more of an open mind in one season than the 57-year-old Gardenhire showed in 13 seasons. He's now at the helm of a young team that will likely get younger and almost can't help but get better, so he'll be learning on the job just like many of his key players.

Managers with a decade-plus on the job can be extremely tough and perhaps even impossible to evaluate, with Gardenhire being a prime example of the wide ranges of opinion. Predicting how a first-time manager will fare ... well, that's somewhere between an educated guessing game and a coin flip. Molitor will need to choose his coaches wisely and get help from a front office that has done more harm than good of late, but he seems like a sound choice.


For a lot more about the Twins hiring Molitor, including an impromptu interview with his former teammate, check out this week's "Gleeman and The Geek" episode.

November 3, 2014

Gleeman and The Geek #169: Paul Molitor!(?)

Topics for this week's "Gleeman and The Geek" episode included the Twins hiring Paul Molitor as their new manager, the odd way the news broke, randomly meeting someone with a World Series ring at New Bohemia, talking to him, and finding out he knows Molitor and a lot more, Byron Buxton's latest injury, Joe Maddon signing with the Cubs, and arguing about LaTroy Hawkins a decade later.

Gleeman and The Geek: Episode 169

In addition to the direct download link above you can also subscribe to the podcast via iTunes.

Setting the scene at New Bohemia:

new bohemia podcast


This week's blog content is sponsored by Uber, which is offering a free ride to first-time users who sign up with the promo code "UberGleeman."

October 31, 2014

Link-O-Rama

Shea Serrano at Grantland paid tribute to my beloved Mase and it's basically perfect.

• Rapid City, South Dakota native Becky Hammon is now the first female full-time coach in NBA history and Howard Beck wrote an excellent article about her life.

• Pitches of 97 miles per hour or faster this season: Royals 2,287, Twins 1.

Joe Maddon, who reportedly never even talked to the Twins, is set to become Cubs manager.

• On this week's "Gleeman and The Geek" episode we discussed all the reasons why there was never any chance of Maddon coming to the Twins and learned valuable lessons about parenting.

Steve "Randball's Stu" Neuman asked WCCO news anchor Jason DeRusha to personalize the "Four Things You Need To Know" segment for him. And so DeRusha did, hilariously:

"Sure, a real man who lives in the St. Cloud area would change his own oil."

• Too little, too late. I've moved on, BlackBerry. And everyone else has, too.

• Well, except for Kim Kardashian apparently.

Torii Hunter cemented his status as baseball's most beloved homophobe.

• As a big fan of "would you rather?" this Katie Notopoulos survey amused me greatly.

• Sometimes when you "deep Google" someone there's no turning back.

• In honor of Timberwolves season starting, here's a picture of 13-year-old me wearing a blunt hat and posing with rookie-year Stephon Marbury.

• Timberwolves coach Flip Saunders has tweeted only three times in the past eight months and they're all amazing.

• If someone claims Alex Gordon would have scored from third base to tie Game 7 of the World Series, please show them this:

Would have been a helluva way for the season to end, though.

Parker Hageman and Dan Anderson of the "No Juice" podcast had Twins president Dave St. Peter as their guest this week.

• City Pages had big shoes to fill, but they found a good blogging replacement for Aaron Rupar in Ben Johnson, who once did a nice job writing this about me for the Minneapolis Star Tribune.

• There's a new restaurant coming to Lake Street called Prairie Dogs, which will have hot dogs, "handcrafted" sausages, and local beer. I suspect I may be there a lot.

• Some of this week's weird and random search engine queries that brought people here:

- "Nick Blackburn was a top prospect"
- "Scott Erickson and Inga Hammond"
- "Is Sid Hartman Jewish?"
- "Lonnie Smith running over catcher"
- "What is throwing shade?"
- "Jon Taffer hair plugs"
- "Ben Revere bulge"

• Finally, in honor of seeing him perform live at Target Center during halftime of the Wolves' home opener Thursday, this week's AG.com-approved music video is "Ice Ice Baby" by Vanilla Ice:


This week's content is sponsored by Harry's Razors. Go to Harrys.com and enter in the promo code "Gleeman" to receive $5 off your first order.

« Newer PostsOlder Posts »