May 23, 2013

Twins demote Worley to Triple-A as rotation sinks lower than last season

vance worley twins demotion

Vance Worley got knocked around for eight runs while failing to make it out of the fourth inning against the Braves yesterday and immediately after the game the Twins demoted him to Triple-A. Worley went from Opening Day starter to minor leaguer in two months by starting 10 games with a 7.21 ERA and allowing 43 total runs in 48.2 innings. When a pitcher struggles that much it's often due to terrible control, but Worley walked just 1.5 batters per start.

Instead he struggled because hitters simply teed off on his 89-mile-per-hour fastball and sub par off-speed stuff, clubbing Worley for an MLB-high .381 batting average and .574 slugging percentage. To put that in some context, the last MLB player to hit .381 or higher and slug .574 or higher in a season was George Brett in 1980. And before that it was Ted Williams in 1957. In other words, Worley turned every hitter he faced into a Hall of Famer.

No one expected Worley to be a top-of-the-rotation starter when the Twins acquired him from the Phillies along with prospect Trevor May for Ben Revere and he got the Opening Day nod by default, but with a 3.50 ERA in 278 innings through age 24 he certainly seemed capable of slotting into the middle of the rotation for several years. And that may still prove true if Worley can get back on track at Triple-A, but his ability to generate swinging strikes is in doubt.

Worley averaged 7.7 strikeouts per nine innings for the Phillies, which was above average for NL starters, but a huge percentage of them came on called third strikes. Striking hitters out looking is definitely a skill, but it's awful tough to sustain at the degree to which Worley relied on it. And sure enough this year batters swung at Worley's strikes nearly 20 percent more often and he's the only MLB starter with a swinging strike rate below 4.5 percent.

If you can't get hitters to swing and miss at pitches and they stop taking pitches in the strike zone enough to rack up called third strikes ... well, what happens is your strikeout rate drops from 7.7 per nine innings to 4.6 per nine innings and everyone looks like a Brett/Williams clone. There was also some bad luck mixed in, including a batting average on balls in play above .400, but however you slice it Worley pitched terribly and raised worrisome questions.

Of course, he's hardly alone. Worley's demotion came just two days after the Twins shipped Pedro Hernandez back to Triple-A for posting a 6.67 ERA with a grand total of 10 strikeouts in six starts and for all of the front office's talk of improved starting pitching being the focus of the offseason the rotation has somehow managed to be even worse than last year's mess. Take a look at how the 2012 and 2013 rotations compare:

YEAR    IP/G      ERA    SO/9    BB/9    HR/9      GB%     OAVG
2012     5.4     5.40     5.5     2.9     1.4     45.3     .287
2013     5.2     5.69     4.2     2.2     1.3     45.4     .330

Last season Twins starters averaged 5.4 innings per start with a 5.40 ERA. This season Twins starters have averaged 5.2 innings per start with a 5.69 ERA. And not only are they giving up more runs in fewer innings, the already abysmal strikeout rate is down from 5.5 to 4.2 per nine innings and the opponents' batting average is up from .287 to .330. And even the rotation's supposed strength, inducing ground balls, hasn't led to an actual increase in ground balls.

Numbers that hideous usually mean things can't help but improve, but then again that seemed likely to be true after last year's debacle and yet here we are. More than a quarter of the way through the season Twins starters have recorded 16 outs per game while allowing nearly six runs per nine innings and opponents have hit .330 off them. I'd hate to see how unspeakably bad the rotation would be if improving it hadn't been the supposed focus of the offseason.


This week's blog content is sponsored by Ticket King, a local ticket broker that doesn't charge check-out fees, offers in-store pickup, and specializes in Twins tickets. Please support them for supporting AG.com.

May 21, 2013

Twins Notes: Thielbar, Gibson, Colabello, Hernandez, Diamond, and Radke

caleb thielbar twins debut

Pedro Hernandez posted a 6.67 ERA with just 10 strikeouts in six starts since replacing Liam Hendriks in the rotation, predictably struggling versus lineups stacked with right-handed hitters. Hernandez, not unlike Brian Duensing, simply isn't capable of handling righties well enough to be a consistent starter. He struggled against righties in the minors and they've clobbered him in the majors, hitting .389 with a .704 slugging percentage and more walks than strikeouts.

Hernandez may still have a big-league future as a reliever, but in the meantime he's headed back to Triple-A and the Twins called up an actual left-handed reliever, Caleb Thielbar, to replace him. That leaves the identity of Friday's starter against Detroit unknown for now, leading to speculation that it might be Kyle Gibson's debut. Gibson threw a complete-game shutout Sunday at Triple-A, his second in his last three starts, and Friday would be his normal turn for Rochester.

Gibson turned in a clunker between the shutouts and his overall Triple-A numbers are good rather than great with a 3.25 ERA and 46-to-14 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 53 innings. If he doesn't get the nod Friday the other options are Rochester rotation-mates and short-term fixes P.J. Walters and Samuel Deduno, so presumably the choice comes down to whether the Twins believe Gibson is ready to stick in the majors yet.

UPDATE: Deduno will get the start Friday.

• As for Thielbar, he's a helluva story. Originally drafted by the Brewers out of South Dakota State in 2009, the Minnesota native got released before advancing past Single-A and latched on with the independent league St. Paul Saints. Thielbar had a 2.54 ERA and 62-to-15 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 50 innings for the Saints in 2011, which impressed the Twins enough to sign him. He started out at Single-A and has been at Triple-A since the middle of last season.

Thielbar had a 3.64 ERA and 66/24 K/BB ratio in 67 total innings at Triple-A, which isn't great for a 26-year-old reliever, but he's been unhittable for the past month and the Twins decided to give him a shot. He throws in the low-90s and has enough raw stuff to survive as a middle reliever, but based on Thielbar's track record too many walks and fly balls could get him in trouble. Assuming the Twins demote a reliever to make room for Friday's starter his stay this time may be brief.

Chris Parmelee has regularly been benched in favor of Ryan Doumit since Oswaldo Arcia's arrival created a first base/corner outfield/designated hitter logjam, frequently sitting even against right-handed pitching. Parmelee's main problem is that he hasn't hit since a big September call-up in 2011, batting .219/.285/.352 with an 86-to-24 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 100 games, but he's also hurt by everyone competing for playing time being a left-handed hitter or switch-hitter.

And that hurts the Twins too, because Parmelee and Doumit aren't starting-caliber hitters against left-handed pitching and Arcia could certainly use the occasional day off versus tough southpaws. But because the Twins lack a decent right-handed hitter to sub for them what happens is that one of the lefty bats sits versus right-handers when they should start and two of the lefty/switch bats start versus left-handers when they should sit. All of which brings me to Chris Colabello.

Colabello is a 29-year-old non-prospect signed out of an independent league and wasn't all that impressive at Double-A in 2012, hitting .284/.358/.470. He moved up to Triple-A this season and has hit .361/.419/.657 with 12 homers in 45 games. Being stretched defensively anywhere but first base hurts Colabello's cause, but he's a right-handed hitter and would seemingly be more useful to the Twins than Parmelee given their current roster construction.

UPDATE: That was quick. Colabello has been called up to replace Trevor Plouffe, who was put on the seven-day disabled list with post-concussion symptoms.

• At the most basic level a team's best relievers should throw the most relief innings, but because of how most managers' bullpen usage revolves around the save statistic that often isn't the case. Instead, when a setup man becomes a closer his workload almost always decreases and closers frequently throw fewer innings than middle relievers because they're constantly being held back for "save situations" that may never actually arrive.

Glen Perkins is proving to be a prime example, as Ron Gardenhire goes out of his way to avoid using Perkins in non-save situations and has essentially stopped using him to get more than three outs. Perkins has been fantastic for the third consecutive season, posting a 3.07 ERA and 23-to-5 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 14.2 innings, but take a look at how his workload compares to the rest of the Twins' bullpen:

APPEARANCES                   INNINGS
Casey Fien          21        Anthony Swarzak     26.0
Jared Burton        20        Josh Roenicke       23.1
Brian Duensing      19        Ryan Pressly        21.2
Josh Roenicke       16        Jared Burton        19.0
Glen Perkins        15        Casey Fiend         18.1
Ryan Pressly        13        Brian Duensing      17.1
Anthony Swarzak     12        Glen Perkins        14.2

Perkins missed a couple days with a sore left side, so if not for the injury he might have one more appearance, but the point remains. In terms of appearances Perkins' workload is closer to the long man (Anthony Swarzak) and Rule 5 pick (Ryan Pressly) than to the most-used relievers in the bullpen. And in terms of innings Perkins is the least-used reliever in the entire bullpen. How does that make sense? If you're not obsessed with the save statistic, it doesn't.

Scott Diamond has struck out exactly one of the last 54 batters he's faced, during which time he's served up four homers and allowed 12 runs on 23 baserunners. His career strikeout rate of 4.47 per nine innings is now the lowest among all active left-handed pitchers with at least 250 innings. This is Diamond's third season in the majors and take a look at how his career numbers compare to another recent Twins pitcher through three seasons:

               ERA     SO/9     BB/9     OAVG
Diamond       4.01      4.5      2.0     .287
Pitcher X     4.14      4.4      1.8     .293

Pitcher X is Nick Blackburn, about whom the same type of things were once said to explain his initial success despite terrible strikeout rates. Now, in fairness the above comparison is way too simplistic--Diamond gets more ground balls than Blackburn, to name one key difference--but you get the idea. Diamond is walking a very thin line right now as he tries to duplicate his unexpected 2012 success and avoid going further down the Blackburn path.

• After two injury wrecked seasons the Twins have been remarkably healthy so far, but their lone significant injury has provided a glimpse into the same question marks that filled 2011 and 2012. Darin Mastroianni injured his ankle late in spring training, but instead of simply placing him on the disabled list to begin the season the Twins kept him on the active roster. He was too limited to actually do much, but they used him as a pinch-runner and defensive replacement.

Then, after appearing in eight games without logging a single plate appearance, the Twins deemed Mastroianni healthy enough to start two games in center field. Shortly after that he was placed on the DL and diagnosed with a stress reaction in his ankle. Initially the Twins said he'd be out three weeks, but that came and went with Mastroianni still in a walking boot and now he's expected to miss the rest of the first half following surgery. I'm no doctor, but that's an awfully familiar story.

Rafael Perez, who signed a minor-league deal with the Twins in February, was released from Triple-A after failing to impress coming back from shoulder surgery. At the time of the signing the Twins indicated that Perez was close to being full strength and they planned to stretch him out as a starter, but within weeks he'd been shut down. Perez pushed back his May 1 opt-out clause to give the Twins more time to evaluate him, but after four appearances they'd seen enough.

Rich Harden, like Perez, signed a minor-league deal with the Twins coming back from shoulder surgery and, like Perez, it hasn't gone well. Harden hasn't been released yet because his opt-out clause isn't until July 31, but he's yet to appear in a game and assistant general manager Rob Antony revealed that his progress is going "slow" and "not very well to be honest." Harden has been hurt for basically his entire career, so he was always a long shot.

• There are eight American League starting pitchers with an opponents' batting average of .310 or higher and four of them (Vance Worley, Mike Pelfrey, Diamond, Hernandez) are Twins. Kevin Correia avoids that list, but his .292 mark isn't exactly pretty and in his last four starts he has a total of seven strikeouts and five homers allowed.

• Twins pitchers have allowed an MLB-high 47 runs in the first inning through 41 games. They've allowed 25 or fewer runs in every other inning. And since that will make everyone curious: Brad Radke had a 5.05 ERA in the first inning and a 4.07 ERA in all other innings.

• For a whole lot more about Gibson and Colabello, plus a bunch of other Twins topics, check out this week's "Gleeman and The Geek" episode.


This week's blog content is sponsored by Ticket King, a local ticket broker that doesn't charge check-out fees, offers in-store pickup, and specializes in Twins tickets. Please support them for supporting AG.com.

May 20, 2013

Gleeman and The Geek #94: Reunited and It Feels So … Meh

Topics for this week's "Gleeman and The Geek" episode included the Twins suddenly living up/down to expectations, Kyle Gibson's timetable and other possible call-ups, Joe Mauer's ridiculous hot streak, remembering David Ortiz as a Twin, putting Miguel Sano and Byron Buxton in prospect context, more injury hijinks, John Bonnes' trip to New York, my trip(s) to the Apple Store, and missing "The Sandlot."

Gleeman and The Geek: Episode 94

In addition to the direct download link above you can also subscribe to the podcast via iTunes.

Here's my view of Sunday afternoon's game before the rain delay hit:

kfan studio view


This week's blog content is sponsored by Ticket King, a local ticket broker that doesn't charge check-out fees, offers in-store pickup, and specializes in Twins tickets. Please support them for supporting AG.com.

May 17, 2013

Link-O-Rama

• We spent 20 minutes talking about this story on this week's "Gleeman and The Geek" episode, but the headline should be enough to draw you in: "Tammy Jung, 23, feeds on 5,000 calories a day through a funnel in hope to become an obese internet star." Also: NSFW (sort of).

• Gophers football assistant coach Matt Limegrover lost 175 pounds via gastric bypass surgery.

• This is the reason why I'm afraid to get married. Also, girls have cooties.

• Seriously though, if you were in prison for a year what's the first thing you'd wanna do once you got out? OK, so maybe the second thing. And feel free to throw on some jeans and a t-shirt.

• Having reserved a "party bus" for an outing next month I'm starting to think maybe we should scratch LeSean McCoy from the guest list.

• I did a podcast that isn't mine and swore a lot "like a true baby."

• If you watched this week's "Kitchen Nightmares" in which Gordon Ramsay quit for the first time in 100 episodes you'll love this follow-up to the insanity of the restaurant owners.

• I've long been mostly ambivalent about "The Office" and Thursday night's finale didn't change much, but it was great to read the story of how a superfan/blogger landed a speaking role.

Joe Mauer is now the active career leader in batting average.

Byron Buxton hit a walk-off grand slam Thursday night at low Single-A and there's video.

• Last week I mentioned the Michael Schur/Ken Tremendous-created show on FOX co-starring Andre Braugher and Official Fantasy Girl of AG.com candidate Chelsea Peretti. Here's the first preview for "Brooklyn Nine-Nine":

As far as network sitcoms go that looks pretty decent, albeit predictably broad. I'll check it out.

• Speaking of Peretti, she joined Adam Scott and Harris Wittels for another silly installment of "Farts and Procreation" on "Comedy Bang Bang." At this point the inside jokes have inside jokes, but I love it.

• Learning that the "Seinfeld" finale aired 15 years ago this week makes me feel old, but not as old as knowing that most of my wardrobe is still white sneakers, dad jeans, and collared shirts.

Bryce Harper somehow avoided a serious injury despite crashing full speed, head first into the outfield wall like he was someone at a mall who didn't notice a glass door in front of them.

• On this week's "Gleeman and The Geek" episode it finally occurred to me that I can choose the intro and outro music now that we're on the radio. I'll let you guess how long it took before Mase made an appearance. Oh, and also John Bonnes was on vacation and Parker Hageman subbed for him like Lou Gehrig stepping into the Yankees' lineup for Wally Pipp.

• I do about 90 percent of my interacting with people via Gchat, so I enjoyed this quiz.

• I was out of town at the SABR convention when Jason Tyner hit his only career homer and two people called me to break the news. It was memorable for the people actually involved too.

• I try not to link to a ton of my HardballTalk posts here in the hopes that most AG.com readers are already reading that stuff too, but just a reminder: I write about baseball all day, every day at HardballTalk on NBCSports.com. I also babble about various things all day, every day on Twitter.

• I checked out the British television show "Pulling" after comedian Rob Delaney recommended it on Twitter and ended up watching the entire series in less than a week. Here's a sample:

It's a bit like if "Sex and The City" were actually funny, but also the characters were crazy.

• I also started watching the HBO show "Enlightened" and like it a lot, but now I'm mad at myself for not realizing that and telling other people to watch before it got canceled.

• The constant shit-talking between Marc Maron and Kumail Nanjiani on "Doug Loves Movies" completely derailed the show and was also extremely funny.

• If you weren't already a Marc Gasol fan his dropping Winston Wolfe quotes in postgame interviews should seal the deal.

• My favorite moment from my weekly appearance on KFAN with Paul Allen came during a break, when he turned to me and asked: "Do you like '90s rap?" And that was after I'd outed myself as a Hawk Harrelson fan.

• I finally saw "Jack Reacher" and it was like an action movie parody. Cheesy dialogue with never-ending cliches and over-acting. So bad. And the Wikipedia page for the Jack Reacher character in Lee Child's novels is hilarious.

• Two of my favorite Minnesotans, Kulap Vilaysack and Joe Mande, teamed up on this week's "Who Charted?"

• Some of this week's weird and random search engine queries that brought people here:

- "Kevin Correia stopped throwing fastballs"
- "Fee clip art of umpires fighting"
- "Gleeman gum"
- "Who does Clete Thomas play for?"
- "Porn star that looks like Kate Mara"
- "Started watching 'Dawson's Creek' on Netflix"
- "Marc Maron shirtless"
- "How much does Kate Upton give to charity?"
- "Where is Joe Christensen and who is Phil Miller?"

• Finally, this week's AG.com-approved music video is a live version of "Sail" by Awolnation:


This week's blog content is sponsored by Ticket King, a local ticket broker that doesn't charge check-out fees, offers in-store pickup, and specializes in Twins tickets. Please support them for supporting AG.com.

May 16, 2013

Listen to me on “The Sportive” podcast

the sportive logo

Last night I was a guest on "The Sportive" podcast with Jon Marthaler, Randall's Stu, Brandon Broxey, and Clarence Swamptown. I had a great time on the show and we talked about a wide variety of topics, most of them silly and all of them leading to multiple tangents. Beer and swear words flowed freely and I think you'll enjoy listening to it, so check out the episode:

"Spoken Like A True Baby"


This week's blog content is sponsored by Ticket King, a local ticket broker that doesn't charge check-out fees, offers in-store pickup, and specializes in Twins tickets. Please support them for supporting AG.com.

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