AaronGleeman.com

I correctly predicted nine of the Sweet Sixteen teams, which seems decent enough. I nailed five of Elite Eight teams, which actually seems pretty damn good. It gets kind of ugly when we get all the way to the Final Four, because I only got one right (Texas). The Longhorns were also my pick for national champs which, sadly, didn't quite happen.

But I'm back again to see if I can do a little better this time around. So here now are my picks for the 2004 NCAA basketball tourney...

First Round Winners (upsets in CAPS/bold):

Kentucky         St. Joe's        Duke             Stanford

Washington       Texas Tech       ARIZONA          Alabama

Providence       MANHATTAN        Illinois         Syracuse

Kansas           Wake Forest      Cincinnati       Maryland

UTAH             Wisconsin        N. Carolina      W. MICHIGAN

Georgia Tech     Pittsburgh       Texas            NC State

Michigan St.     Memphis          Xavier           DAYTON

Gonzaga          Oklahoma St.     Miss. St.        Connecticut

It seems like I should have taken way more than five first-round upsets, but actually only eight lower-seeded teams won in the first round last year and there were only seven in 2002.

I could always get a couple more upsets by going with some #9 seeds over #8 seeds because those are usually toss-up games, but I'll stick with what I've got.

Sweet Sixteen (seed):

Kentucky (1)

Kansas (4)

Michigan State (7)

Utah (11)

 

Oklahoma St. (2)

Wake Forest (4)

Wisconsin (6) 

Texas Tech (8)

 

Duke (1)

Mississppi State (2)

Illinois (5)

North Carolina (6)

 

Stanford (1)

Connecticut (2)

NC State (3)

Syracuse (5)

Ah, there we go, some upsets! I'm going out on a limb and saying 11th-seeded Utah will not only knock out #6 Boston College in round one, they'll take down #3 Georgia Tech (a very trendy Final Four pick) in round two. And yes, I realize that's crazy, but I guarantee there will be one double-digit seed in the Sweet Sixteen, so why not Utah?

I also have #7 Michigan State taking down #2 Gonzaga and #8 Texas Tech taking down Billy Packer's favorite team, St. Joseph's.

Elite Eight (seed):

Kentucky (1)

Michigan State (7)

 

Wake Forest (4)

Wisconsin (6)

 

Duke (1)

North Carolina (6)

 

Connecticut (2)

Syracuse (5)

A few more upsets. I'm not sure I really think UNC and Duke will meet, but I'm putting it down as my prediction just because that's the game I want to see. And yeah, two Big Ten teams in the Elite Eight (yes, I go to a Big Ten school, so what?!).

Final Four (seed):

Kentucky (1)

Wisconsin (6)

Duke (1)

Connecticut (2)

If that prediction holds true, there will have been an all-ACC (Duke/UNC) and all-Big East (UCONN/Syracuse) matchup in the Elite Eight, which would be interesting.

As you can see, I really think Wisconsin is a sleeper in this tourney. They got ripped off by getting the #6 seed, after going 12-4 in the Big Ten regular season (tied for second) and winning the Big Ten tournament (beating Illinois and Michigan State along the way). They finished #12 in RPI and #10 in both top-25 polls. I'm not sure how the hell that makes them a #6 seed...

The Badgers always play great defense and they have some good size (Wilkerson, Morley) and enough scoring (Harris, Tucker) to win games that aren't just defensive battles. Devin Harris is one of the most underrated players in the country.

Final Two (seed):

Kentucky (1)

Connecticut (2)

And the National Champs? Drumroll please...

Connecticut