AaronGleeman.com

Thanks to everyone who sent along e-mails of support yesterday after I mentioned the family stuff I am going through. The situation is getting better, but it's going very slowly and we're not out of the woods yet.

Anyway, let's talk a little baseball ...

Before I get into my thoughts on the Twins' recently-completed 2004 draft, I need to say that I have absolutely no expertise when it comes to this area of baseball. I have not seen any of these high school draftees play and I have only seen a limited amount of college baseball this year. Beyond that, I haven't even read, heard or talked about many of the guys who were picked.

I won't even attempt to analyze the high school players the Twins took -- and there were a ton of them, which you can read more about at THT -- because I just know nothing about them and the information that is available is pretty limited.

With regard to the few college players the Twins took, I am able to give you a little information on them by way of their stats from this past season. All of the following numbers come courtesy of my THT colleague Craig Burley, who put together some great NCAA hitting and pitching data during the past two weeks.

First, let's take a look at the college pitchers the Twins drafted ...

*RSAA is Runs Saved Above Average, which is adjusted for strength of schedule and ballpark.

**Rank is the player's rank among all 2004 NCAA pitchers in RSAA.

***There are a couple guys Craig doesn't have data on, which means they didn't pitch enough this year to make his cut.

Glen Perkins | Pick #22 | Minnesota | LHP

 

 ERA        IP      H      SO     BB     RSAA     RANK

2.53     103.1     79     107     21     42.0       32

 

Matt Fox | Pick #35 | Central Florida | RHP

 

 ERA        IP      H      SO     BB     RSAA     RANK

1.99     104.0     70     119     32     46.5       18

 

John Williams | Pick #211 | Middle Tennessee State | LHP

 

 ERA        IP      H      SO     BB     RSAA     RANK

2.77      94.1     79     107     26     31.7       83

 

Jay Sawatski | Pick #241 | Arkansas | LHP

  

 ERA        IP      H      SO     BB     RSAA     RANK

3.78      78.2     88      72     19     28.1      108

 

J.P. Martinez | Pick #271 | New Orleans | RHP

  

 ERA        IP      H      SO     BB     RSAA     RANK

5.47     100.1    104     110     45     14.3      399

 

Jeff Mousser | Pick #1051 | Arizona State | RHP

  

 ERA        IP      H      SO     BB     RSAA     RANK

3.93      84.2     77      41     41     33.1       70

I think by now we all realize that the Twins are a team geared towards picking high school players, but I do think they do a nice job mixing in a few solid college choices, particularly with pitchers. They did it last year with Scott Baker, their #2 pick out of Oklahoma State, and they did it in 2002 with Jesse Crain, who is one of the best reliever prospects in baseball now.

I've seen Glen Perkins pitch multiple times and he's clearly the real deal. Good stats, good stuff, highly regarded in all circles, ranked as the 32nd-best NCAA pitcher in 2004 according to Craig's adjustments.

Matt Fox looks like a very nice pick at #35. Great numbers and Craig's adjustments have him as the 18th-best NCAA pitcher last year. Gotta love a 1.99 ERA and a 119/32 strikeout/walk ratio is a thing of beauty.

John Williams and Jay Sawatski also look like solid picks at #211 and #241. Both are fairly high up on Craig's rankings and both have very solid stats across-the-board.

With Mousser, it would seem on the surface like not only a good pick, but a great pick. Getting a guy who pitched in the Pac-10 at Arizona State and had a 3.93 ERA and ranked 70th among all NCAA pitchers in RSAA with the #1,051 pick in the draft?! That seems crazy, right? Well, Mousser did a wonderful job preventing runs last year and he did face some stiff competition, but he also had a 41/41 strikeout/walk ratio, which is beyond horrible.

Okay, let's move on to the college hitters now ...

*LWRAA is Linear Weights Runs Above Average, which is adjusted for strength of schedule and ballpark.

**Rank is a player's rank among all 2004 NCAA hitters in LWRAA.

***There are a couple guys Craig doesn't have data on, which means they didn't play enough this year to make his cut.

Jeremy Pickrel | Pick #301 | Illinois State | OF

 

 G      AB      AVG      OBP      SLG     LWRAA     RANK

47     153     .268     .396     .562      10.8      507

 

Javi Sanchez | Pick #421 | Notre Dame | C

 

 G      AB      AVG      OBP      SLG     LWRAA     RANK

55     202     .287     .380     .386       0.7     1391

 

Matt Tolbert | Pick #481 | Mississippi | SS

 

 G      AB      AVG      OBP      SLG     LWRAA     RANK

56     219     .288     .360     .365       1.3     1322

 

Tim Lahey | Pick #601 | Princeton | C

 

 G      AB      AVG      OBP      SLG     LWRAA     RANK

35     127     .260     .391     .512       5.9      837

 

Landon Burt | Pick #811 | San Diego State | OF

 

 G      AB      AVG      OBP      SLG     LWRAA     RANK

63     234     .321     .432     .479      14.6      316

The first college position player they took, Jeremy Pickrel, has nice looking numbers on the surface (.396 on-base percentage, .562 slugging percentage), but I'm actually not all that excited about him. First, he played an easy schedule, according to Craig's calculations. Second, he struck out 73 times in 153 at-bats and walked just 29 times. I like to see a far better strikeout/walk ratio from a college hitter, preferably close to 1/1, so striking out 48% of the time is not going to get me too excited. Plus, anyone who hits .268 against relatively weak competition, with a metal bat, is automatically suspect in my book.

Javi Sanchez's numbers don't do much for me either, especially the low batting average and sub-.400 slugging percentage. I will say that he played much tougher competition than Peckrel, had a pitcher's ballpark for a home, and played the least-offensive defensive position (catcher). He also had a 23/19 strikeout/walk ratio.

Matt Tolbert, the shortstop from Ole Miss, also doesn't do much for me, and that's coming from the president of the Guzman/Rivas-Haters Club. If you can only manage a .365 slugging percentage in college, I just don't see how you can be a good major leaguer. He'd better be Ozzie Smith defensively.

I don't see a whole lot in Lahey either. He hit just .260, had twice as many strikeouts as walks, and played weak competition. The good news is that he's a catcher and he had an Isolated Power number of .252. Oh, and he's from Princeton, so he's smart. Always good to have some brains in the organization.

Strangely enough, the last college hitter they took, Landon Burt of San Diego State, is the one I think I like the most. He hit .321, had a great 26/45 strikeout/walk ratio, and went 30-for-34 stealing bases. He doesn't have much power and he played in a hitter's park, but Craig's system has him as the 316th-best hitter in the land this year, and you've gotta like that from a guy you pick #811.

Finally, I posted my initial thoughts on the Twins' entire draft (not just college guys) earlier, but for those who missed it, here it is again:

I think it looks good, or at least "not bad." I like that they grabbed Glen Perkins from the Gophers, and their first pick (the high school shortstop/pitcher) sounds like he's universally regarded as a top player. I am a little "intrigued" by the fact that the Twins started their draft with a shortstop and then took pitchers with 14 of the next 16 picks.

It does make some sense, in that they do seem to be fairly stacked with young position players (Mauer, Morneau, Kubel, Cuddyer, Span, Bartlett, Ford, Restovich) throughout the system, and they have older guys like Torii Hunter and Shannon Stewart locked up for the next several years.

And really, aside from the middle infield, what position are they desperately lacking at in regard to young, potential future starters? So they took this shortstop Trevor Plouffe with their first pick, loaded up on pitchers, and snatched a few other position players later in the draft.

New article at The Hardball Times: Draft Notes

Today's picks:

Toronto (Batista) -120 over Los Angeles (Lima)

Colorado (Kennedy) +220 over New York (Brown)

Atlanta (Thomson) -120 over Detroit (Bonderman)

Chicago (Garland) -110 over Philadelphia (Milton)

New York (Trachsel) +115 over Minnesota (Santana)

Houston (Miller) +105 over Seattle (Garcia)