February 3, 2005
State of the Twins: Middle Infielders
Though we're still a couple months away from Opening Day, the Minnesota Twins' roster is just about set for the 2005 season. They lost a few of their free agents, re-signed the most important one, took care of all their arbitration-eligible guys, and recently handed out their non-roster invites for spring training.
Over the next week or so, I am going to take an early, position-by-position look at the state of the Twins heading into 2005, with the help of three player projection/forecasting systems -- Tangotiger's Marcels, Baseball Prospectus' PECOTAs, and Baseball Think Factory's ZiPS. (Hat tip to Tom Meagher over at The Fourth Outfielder for the inspiration for the idea.)
I covered catchers on Monday and corner infielders on Tuesday, so today let's cover the middle infielders ...
LUIS RIVAS | 2B | AGE: 25 JUAN CASTRO | SS/2B/3B | AGE: 33
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PROJECTION AVG OBP SLG PROJECTION AVG OBP SLG
Marcel .267 .309 .427 Marcel .249 .293 .391
PECOTA .266 .308 .403 PECOTA .249 .291 .375
ZiPS .266 .310 .404 ZiPS .253 .287 .386
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AVERAGE .266 .309 .411 AVERAGE .250 .290 .384
JASON BARTLETT | SS | AGE: 25 NICK PUNTO | SS/2B/3B | AGE: 27
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PROJECTION AVG OBP SLG PROJECTION AVG OBP SLG
Marcel .266 .333 .429 Marcel .256 .326 .376
PECOTA .266 .341 .376 PECOTA .256 .333 .346
ZiPS .273 .340 .364 ZiPS .262 .361 .319
===================================== =====================================
AVERAGE .268 .338 .390 AVERAGE .258 .340 .347
AUGIE OJEDA | SS/2B/3B | AGE: 30 BRENT ABERNATHY | 2B | AGE: 27
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PROJECTION AVG OBP SLG PROJECTION AVG OBP SLG
Marcel .263 .331 .402 Marcel .249 .299 .351
PECOTA .245 .325 .332 PECOTA - NOT AVAILABLE -
ZiPS .232 .312 .310 ZiPS .258 .318 .373
===================================== =====================================
AVERAGE .247 .323 .348 AVERAGE .254 .309 .362
This is where things get ugly for the 2005 Twins. The collection of "talent" they have assembled to play second base and shortstop this year is remarkably bad. None of the six players I have listed above project as even an average offensive player at second base or shortstop, two positions where the overall offensive levels are very low. For our collective sanity, I didn't even bother to include a guy like Andy Fox, who is a non-roster invitee to spring training and projects as even worse than everyone else (as hard as that is to believe).
As things stand right now, Luis Rivas is once again the starter at second base and Juan Castro, who was signed as a free agent this offseason, is the starter at shortstop. If you look at Rivas' projections, it is amazing how similar all three of them are. And they all agree that he'll stink, of course. Actually though, if you told me he was going to match his average projection of .266/.309/.411 this year, I'd take it in a second. That .720 OPS, however paltry, would be his career-high in a full season.
The saddest thing is that Castro actually figures to be significantly worse than Rivas offensively, coming in with an average projection of .250/.290/.384. Like Rivas, Castro's projection is simultaneously horrible and very optimistic, as Castro is a career .226/.269/.331 hitter and has reached a .290 on-base percentage or a .384 slugging percentage just once in his entire career. If you add Rivas' average projected OPS with Castro's average projected OPS, you get 1.394. Barry Bonds' OPS was 1.422 in 2004.
There are quite a few other options for the Twins in the middle infield, but none of them really stand out. Well, actually that's not quite true. In my mind, the obvious choice would have involved committing to Michael Cuddyer at second base and re-signing Corey Koskie to play third base before he left for Toronto, signing a cheap free agent like Joe Randa, or plugging the hole at third with guys like Terry Tiffee and Eric Munson. Cuddyer's bat would be a major asset at second base and his defense there would be better than his defense at third base, in my opinion. Koskie and Randa are no longer options obviously, but Cuddyer still has an outside shot at seeing significant playing time at second base (in other words, a boy can dream).
Jason Bartlett is a promising prospect who appears to be the future at shortstop for the Twins. As has been the case with a lot of guys who have appeared to be the future at a given position for Minnesota in the last decade or so, the team's management has decided he needs additional seasoning in the minors. Bartlett hit .331/.415/.472 in 67 games at Triple-A last year after hitting .296/.380/.425 in 139 games at Double-A in 2003, so he has certainly conquered the high minor leagues. However, he looked awful in a very brief stint with the Twins last season and the team seems to have concerns about his defense.
Imagine being a promising young shortstop prospect who has heard concerns from the organization about your defense, only to see them go out and sign Castro, the ultimate good-glove/no-hit shortstop, to a two-year deal during the offseason. It's like a young girl getting engaged to a guy with wedding plans in a year or so, the fiance complaining about her cooking, and then going out and hiring a less attractive, older female housekeeper who can do nothing but cook. Bartlett and the cooking-impaired girl probably know they shouldn't be that threatened, but there's still that woman cooking dinner in the kitchen.
Personally, I would give Bartlett a chance at shortstop to see what he can do right now. He's 24 years old, he has proven he can succeed in the high minors for two straight years, he is relatively highly thought of as a prospect, and he plays a position the team is very weak at currently. Of course, there's a decent chance I'm crazy, but it's also worth remembering that I didn't give Castro a million bucks a year for the next two seasons. Oh, and really, in the grand scheme of things, who cares if she can cook?
Today at The Hardball Times:
- Top 50 Prospects: Year in Review (11-20) (by Aaron Gleeman)
