March 5, 2007
Top 50 Prospects of 2007: 41-50
These rankings reflect my feeling about each player's long-term chances for (and degree of) success in the major leagues and are by no means authoritative, because I'm no more an expert on prospects than anyone else who follows them closely. You'll likely find that my rankings lean more heavily towards older, established prospects than many other rankings, and a further explanation of what I base the rankings on can be found in the introduction to last year's series.
50. Kurt Suzuki | Oakland A's | C | Age: 23 | Bats: Right
YEAR LV AB AVG OBP SLG HR XBH BB SO
2004 A- 175 .297 .394 .440 3 16 18 26
2005 A+ 441 .277 .378 .440 12 43 63 61
2006 AA 376 .285 .392 .415 7 34 58 50
A second-round pick out of Cal-State Fullerton in 2004, Kurt Suzuki has steadily moved through the A's system and could be ready to replace pending free agent Jason Kendall in 2008. Suzuki lacks power, but has a ton of plate discipline and does an excellent job controlling the strike zone, posting a 137-to-139 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 259 career games. One of baseball's most underrated prospects, he also gunned down nearly half of the stolen-base attempts against him at Double-A last year.
49. Alberto Callaspo | Arizona Diamondbacks | 2B | Age: 24 | Bats: Switch
YEAR LV AB AVG OBP SLG HR XBH BB SO
2004 AA 550 .284 .338 .376 6 37 47 25
2005 AA 350 .297 .346 .406 10 18 28 17
AAA 212 .316 .345 .448 1 24 10 13
2006 AAA 490 .337 .404 .478 7 43 56 27
MLB 42 .238 .298 .310 0 2 4 6
Dealt away last winter because of the Angels' abundance of middle-infield prospects, Alberto Callaspo hit .337 in 114 games at Triple-A and moved up to Arizona in August. A versatile defender who'll likely end up at second base, Callaspo has more power potential than a typical slap hitter and controls the strike zone as well as anyone in baseball. He struck out just 33 times in 601 total plate appearances last year and has made contact in over 95 percent of his career trips to the plate while hitting .314.
48. Josh Fields | Chicago White Sox | 3B | Age: 24 | Bats: Right
YEAR LV AB AVG OBP SLG HR XBH BB SO
2004 A+ 256 .285 .333 .445 7 23 18 74
2005 AA 477 .252 .341 .409 16 43 55 142
2006 AAA 462 .305 .379 .515 19 55 54 136
A disappointment in his first two seasons after being a first-round pick out of Oklahoma State in 2004, Josh Fields broke out at Triple-A last year by hitting .335 with 13 homers through June. He slumped after that, hitting just .265 with six homers from July 1 on, and continued to strike out a ton. That makes it unlikely that he'll hit .300 consistently, but Fields has enough power potential to make up for it. Fields will end up at third base if the White Sox part with Joe Crede and likely move to left field if they don't.
47. Travis Buck | Oakland A's | LF | Age: 23 | Bats: Left
YEAR LV AB AVG OBP SLG HR XBH BB SO
2005 A- 123 .341 .427 .472 1 14 19 19
2006 A+ 126 .349 .400 .603 3 23 14 18
AA 212 .302 .376 .472 4 27 22 39
A 2005 first-round pick after batting .362 in three years at Arizona State, Travis Buck has continued to post huge batting averages in the minors, hitting .328 in 125 games. Not a home-run threat at ASU, Buck has gone deep just 10 times in 497 pro at-bats, but did smack an impressive 53 doubles. Because he's unable to cover center field defensively, Buck's lack of big-time power keeps him from being a truly elite prospect, but he projects as a very solid player who's close to being ready.
46. Miguel Montero | Arizona Diamondbacks | C | Age: 23 | Bats: Left
YEAR LV AB AVG OBP SLG HR XBH BB SO
2004 A- 403 .263 .330 .409 11 35 36 74
2005 A+ 355 .349 .403 .625 24 49 26 52
AA 108 .250 .311 .352 2 5 7 26
2006 AA 289 .270 .362 .436 10 28 39 44
AAA 134 .321 .396 .515 7 12 14 21
A career .291/.360/.468 hitter in 499 minor-league games since being signed out of Venezuela in 2001, Miguel Montero is ready to take over as Arizona's catcher with Johnny Estrada traded to Milwaukee. His track record is inconsistent, but Montero has shown the ability to post big batting averages while making good contact, has plenty of power, and is considered a solid defender behind the plate. Given a chance to a platoon with Chris Snyder, he could be a darkhorse Rookie of the Year candidate.
45. Elijah Dukes | Tampa Bay Devil Rays | RF | Age: 23 | Bats: Switch
YEAR LV AB AVG OBP SLG HR XBH BB SO
2004 A- 163 .288 .368 .423 2 16 18 47
A+ 211 .332 .416 .540 8 26 26 50
2005 AA 446 .287 .355 .478 18 44 45 83
2006 AAA 283 .293 .401 .488 10 20 44 47
A top-20 talent who has a long history of problems with almost everyone he comes into contact with, Elijah Dukes had the best season of his career in 2006. Unfortunately, he was limited to just 80 games at Triple-A because of multiple suspensions, including a 30-game sentence to end the year. Dukes has made impressive strides with his power development while becoming a patient hitter who controls the strike zone, but learning to control himself has proven elusive.
44. Dustin Pedroia | Boston Red Sox | 2B | Age: 23 | Bats: Right
YEAR LV AB AVG OBP SLG HR XBH BB SO
2004 A- 50 .400 .474 .560 1 6 6 3
A+ 107 .336 .417 .523 2 13 13 4
2005 AA 256 .324 .409 .508 8 29 34 26
AAA 204 .255 .356 .382 5 15 24 17
2006 AAA 423 .305 .384 .426 5 38 48 27
MLB 89 .191 .258 .303 2 6 7 7
High on-base percentages and a lack of respect from scouting-based assessments have made Dustin Pedroia a stat-head favorite. In this case at least I fall somewhere in the middle, viewing him as an MLB-ready second baseman who should be solidly above average offensively and defensively without having much potential for stardom. A second-round pick out of Arizona State in 2004, Pedroia's control of the strike zone rivals Callaspo's and he should enter the season as Boston's starter.
43. Colby Rasmus | St. Louis Cardinals | CF | Age: 20 | Bats: Left
YEAR LV AB AVG OBP SLG HR XBH BB SO
2005 RK 216 .296 .362 .514 7 28 21 73
2006 A- 303 .310 .373 .512 11 36 29 55
A+ 193 .254 .351 .404 5 14 27 35
Drafted 28th overall out of an Alabama high school in 2005, Colby Rasmus has hit .291/.364/.483 with 23 homers, 78 total extra-base hits, 77 walks, and 41 steals in 193 pro games. His blend of plate discipline, power, and speed is very impressive for a 20-year-old and Rasmus is considered a good defensive center fielder who might stick at the position long term, but his strikeouts are of some concern and he ended last season on a relatively sour note following a promotion to high Single-A.
42. Jeff Niemann | Tampa Bay Devil Rays | SP | Age: 24 | Throws: Right
YEAR LV G GS ERA IP H HR SO BB
2005 A+ 5 5 3.98 20.1 12 3 28 10
AA 6 3 4.35 10.1 7 0 14 5
2006 AA 14 14 2.68 77.1 56 6 84 29
Considered by some to be the top player in the 2004 draft, Jeff Niemann dropped to Tampa Bay fourth overall because of concerns following elbow surgery. As a pro Niemann has shown that he's indeed an elite talent, striking out 10.5 batters per nine innings while holding opponents to a .194 batting average, but has also thrown just 108 career innings because of an assortment of maladies. A 6-foot-9 flamethrower, Niemann has legitimate No. 1 starter potential if he can simply stay healthy.
41. Ryan Braun | Milwaukee Brewers | 3B | Age: 23 | Bats: Right
YEAR LV AB AVG OBP SLG HR XBH BB SO
2005 A- 152 .355 .396 .645 8 26 9 34
2006 A+ 226 .274 .346 .438 7 21 23 54
AA 231 .303 .367 .589 15 35 21 46
The fifth overall pick in the 2005 draft after hitting .388/.471/.726 during his final season at the University of Miami, Ryan Braun has hit .308/.367/.549 with 32 homers and 30 steals in 165 pro games, and could be on the verge of securing a job with the Brewers. However, reviews of his defense at third base are mixed at best, suggesting a possible move down the defensive spectrum, and the strikeouts will make maintaining a high batting average difficult. He looks sort of like a souped-up version of Fields.
