March 12, 2007
Top 50 Prospects of 2007: 11-20
Below you'll find the fourth installment of my fifth annual ranking of the top 50 prospects in baseball, which is not to be confused with the team-specific "Top 40 Twins Prospects of 2007" series that I completed last month. I began publishing my prospect rankings back in 2003 at the Baseball Primer site that has since become Baseball Think Factory, and the 2004, 2005, and 2006 versions can all be found at The Hardball Times.
These rankings reflect my feeling about each player's long-term chances for (and degree of) success in the major leagues and are by no means authoritative, because I'm no more an expert on prospects than anyone else who follows them closely. You'll likely find that my rankings lean more heavily towards older, established prospects than many other rankings, and a further explanation of what I base the rankings on can be found in the introduction to last year's series.
20. Adam Jones | Seattle Mariners | CF | Age: 21 | Bats: Right
YEAR LV AB AVG OBP SLG HR XBH BB SO
2004 A- 510 .267 .314 .404 11 41 33 124
2005 A+ 271 .295 .374 .494 8 33 29 64
AA 228 .298 .365 .461 7 20 22 48
2006 AAA 380 .287 .345 .484 16 39 28 78
MLB 74 .216 .237 .311 1 5 2 22
The 37th overall pick in the 2003 draft, Adam Jones began his pro career as a shortstop before shifting to center field last season. Though still rough around the edges, he's reportedly made great strides and has the skills to be a Gold Glover. Jones also has the potential to be an impact bat, although his numbers thus far have been merely good thanks in large part to the Mariners pushing their prospects more aggressively than other organizations, including calling an unprepared Jones up at the age of 20.
19. Troy Tulowitzki | Colorado Rockies | SS | Age: 22 | Bats: Right
YEAR LV AB AVG OBP SLG HR XBH BB SO
2005 A+ 94 .266 .343 .457 4 10 9 18
2006 AA 423 .291 .370 .473 13 49 46 71
MLB 96 .240 .318 .292 1 3 10 25
After three years as Long Beach State's starting shortstop, the Rockies grabbed Troy Tulowitzki with the No. 7 pick in the 2005 draft and moved him quickly through the system. Tulowitzki began his first full season at Double-A, hitting .291/.370/.473 in 104 games before getting the call up to Colorado in August. He struggled in 25 games there and is battling Clint Barmes for the starting job this spring, but is without question the Rockies' long-term answer at shortstop. He should be solid, but unspectacular.
18. Luke Hochevar | Kansas City Royals | SP | Age: 23 | Throws: Right
YEAR LV G GS ERA IP H HR SO BB
2006 A- 4 4 1.17 15.1 8 2 16 2
After going 15-3 with a 2.26 ERA in his final season at Tennessee, Luke Hochevar fell to the Dodgers with the 40th pick in the 2005 draft because his signability was in question. He failed to reach an agreement and re-entered the draft last June after playing in an independent league, going No. 1 overall to the Royals. The whole thing cost Hochevar some development time, but he gained about $2 million, blew away Single-A hitters after signing, and should be in the majors by midseason anyway.
17. Brandon Wood | Los Angeles Angels | 3B | Age: 22 | Bats: Right
YEAR LV AB AVG OBP SLG HR XBH BB SO
2004 A- 478 .251 .322 .404 11 46 46 117
2005 A+ 536 .321 .383 .672 43 98 48 128
2006 AA 453 .276 .355 .552 25 71 54 149
The recent move from shortstop to third base lessens Brandon Wood's long-term stock, but offense remains his primary asset. After busting out with a record-breaking season at high Single-A in 2005, Wood followed it up by hitting .276/.355/.552 in 118 games at Double-A last year. His huge strikeout totals are a major concern and may keep him from posting good batting averages, but slugging third basemen with mediocre on-base percentages still have plenty of value.
16. Andrew Miller | Detroit Tigers | SP | Age: 22 | Throws: Left
YEAR LV G GS ERA IP H HR SO BB
2006 A+ 3 0 0.00 5.0 2 0 9 1
MLB 8 0 6.10 10.1 8 0 6 10
Considered by many to be the top player in last June's draft coming out of North Carolina, Andrew Miller dropped to the Tigers with the No. 6 pick due to his bonus demands. He eventually received over $5 million in guaranteed money and was called up in August as part of the deal. A 6-foot-6 left-hander with a mid-90s fastball, Miller struggled to find the plate out of the Tigers' bullpen, but his long-term home is at the top of the rotation. He'll begin this year in the minors, but should see Detroit by August.
15. Evan Longoria | Tampa Bay Devil Rays | 3B | Age: 21 | Bats: Right
YEAR LV AB AVG OBP SLG HR XBH BB SO
2006 A- 33 .424 .487 .879 4 6 5 5
A+ 110 .327 .402 .618 8 16 13 19
AA 105 .267 .266 .486 6 11 1 20
Considered one of the few top-notch hitters in last June's draft after batting .353/.468/.602 at Long Beach State, Evan Longoria went third overall and blitzed through the minors, hitting .315/.360/.597 in 62 games between low Single-A, high Single-A, and Double-A. Drawing just one walk while striking out 20 times at Double-A is concerning, but Longoria had a strong strikeout-to-walk ratio in college and at both levels of Single-A. He looks likely to reach Tampa Bay by midseason, probably at third base.
14. Reid Brignac | Tampa Bay Devil Rays | SS | Age: 21 | Bats: Left
YEAR LV AB AVG OBP SLG HR XBH BB SO
2004 RK 97 .361 .413 .474 1 7 9 10
2005 A- 512 .264 .319 .416 15 46 40 131
2006 A+ 411 .326 .382 .557 21 50 35 82
AA 110 .300 .355 .473 3 11 7 31
A second-round pick in 2004, Reid Brignac hit .361 in rookie-ball, struggled at low Single-A in 2005, and broke out with a huge season between Single-A and Double-A last year. He won the California League MVP before hitting .300 after a late-season promotion, combining to bat .321/.376/.539 with 24 homers in 128 games as a 20-year-old. There's some question about whether he can remain at shortstop long term, but Brignac's glove has reportedly improved and his bat fits anywhere.
13. Mike Pelfrey | New York Mets | SP | Age: 23 | Throws: Right
YEAR LV G GS ERA IP H HR SO BB
2006 A+ 4 4 1.64 22.0 17 1 26 2
AA 12 12 2.71 66.1 60 2 77 26
AAA 2 2 2.25 8.0 4 1 6 5
MLB 4 4 5.48 21.1 25 1 13 12
Mike Pelfrey finished his amazing three-year run at Wichita State by going 12-3 with a 1.93 ERA in 2005, but high bonus demands allowed the Mets to snatch him up with No. 9 pick. Pelfrey has since shown why he was widely considered the top pitching talent available, making his big-league debut midway through his first pro season. He struggled with the Mets, but posted a 2.43 ERA and 109-to-33 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 96 minor-league innings, and should be in New York for good by midseason.
12. Andrew McCutchen | Pittsburgh Pirates | CF | Age: 20 | Bats: Right
YEAR LV AB AVG OBP SLG HR XBH BB SO
2005 RK 158 .297 .411 .430 2 14 29 24
RK 52 .346 .443 .442 0 4 8 6
2006 A- 453 .291 .356 .446 14 38 42 91
AA 78 .308 .379 .474 3 7 8 20
Justin Upton, Fernando Martinez, and Cameron Maybin get far more attention among 20-and-under center-field prospects, but Andrew McCutchen is one step ahead of them while offering a similar set of impressive all-around skills. Not only has McCutchen done well in the low minors--hitting .297 with 16 homers, 56 total extra-base hits, 39 steals, and 79 walks in 172 games between rookie-ball and low Single-A--he also hit .308/.379/.474 in 20 games at Double-A as a 19-year-old.
11. Billy Butler | Kansas City Royals | LF | Age: 21 | Bats: Right
YEAR LV AB AVG OBP SLG HR XBH BB SO
2004 RK 260 .373 .488 .596 10 35 57 63
2005 A+ 379 .348 .419 .636 25 57 42 80
AA 112 .313 .353 .527 5 14 7 18
2006 AA 477 .331 .388 .499 15 49 41 67
Based on hitting alone Billy Butler is one of the elite prospects in baseball, but his complete lack of defensive value drops him in these rankings. Originally a third baseman when the Royals made him the 14th overall pick in the 2004 draft, Butler is currently a left fielder and will likely end up at designated hitter. A .344 hitter in 314 pro games who turns 21 years old next month, Butler combines huge power potential with good strike-zone control and has a chance to become an all-around offensive monster.
