June 19, 2013

Who are the best young hitters in Twins history?

best young hitters

Oswaldo Arcia has thrived as a 22-year-old rookie, Aaron Hicks has struggled as a 23-year-old rookie, and Twins fans are counting down the days until stud prospects Miguel Sano and Byron Buxton arrive in Minnesota. All of which got me thinking about the best young hitters in Twins history, so I looked up the most productive seasons for each age based on OPS. No teenage hitter has even gotten regular playing time for the Twins, so let's start with 20-year-olds ...


AGE 20              YEAR      PA      OPS
Butch Wynegar       1976     622     .719

Butch Wynegar is the only hitter in Twins history to see regular action at age 20 and he logged 622 plate appearances, started 133 games at catcher, threw out 35 percent of steal attempts, and made the All-Star team while hitting .260/.356/.363 with more walks (79) than strikeouts (63) in a pitcher-friendly era. Adjusting for the time it was a Joe Mauer-esque year, which is why he was such a phenom and why, despite a solid 13-year career, he was ultimately a disappointment.

Bert Blyleven actually has the second-most plate appearances by a 20-year-old in Twins history with 100, because he was an amazing young pitcher who debuted before the designated hitter. In fact, he also has the most plate appearances by a 19-year-old in Twins history with 58. Through age 20 he hit .135 in 158 trips to the plate ... and tossed 442 innings with a 2.95 ERA. Blyleven ended up with 514 career plate appearances and hit .131 with a 193-to-5 strikeout-to-walk ratio.

Among position players Luis Rivas has the second-most plate appearances by a 20-year-old in Twins history with 64. In the early days of this blog the Twins rushing Rivas to the majors and repeatedly handing him a starting job based almost solely on his age was a frequent source of frustration. He debuted at 20 and got the sixth-most plate appearances in team history through age 24--Wynegar got the most by a wide margin--but Rivas basically never improved.


AGE 21              YEAR      PA      OPS
Tom Brunansky       1982     545     .848
Rod Carew           1967     561     .750
Butch Wynegar       1977     617     .715
Zoilo Versalles     1961     542     .704
Luis Rivas          2001     619     .682
Cristian Guzman     1999     456     .543

Those are the only six 21-year-olds in Twins history to log at least 300 plate appearances. Tom Brunansky actually began that 1982 season at Triple-A in the Angels organization and was hitting just .205/.317/.330 in 25 games there when they traded him to the Twins in mid-May along with Mike Walters for Doug Corbett and Rob Wilfong. He was immediately handed a starting job and hit .272/.377/.471 with 20 homers, 30 doubles, and 71 walks in 127 games.

Rod Carew was also no slouch at 21, hitting .292/.341/.409 in one of the lowest-scoring eras in baseball history. Seriously, in 1967 the American League as a whole hit .236 with a .303 on-base percentage and .351 slugging percentage. If you adjust Carew's raw numbers to today's offensive environment he hit around .315/.360/.475, which is amazing from a 21-year-old second baseman and explains how he missed being the unanimous Rookie of the Year winner by one vote.

Wynegar cracks the list again and Rivas shows up too, along with shortstops Zoilo Versalles and Cristian Guzman. In six decades of Twins history only two regulars have been above-average hitters at 21, which is something to remember when Sano and Buxton show up. Mauer doesn't make the age-21 list because a knee injury cut short his rookie season, but he hit .308/.369/.570 in 122 plate appearances for what would be the top OPS by a wide margin.


AGE 22              YEAR      PA      OPS
Kent Hrbek          1982     591     .848
David Ortiz         1998     326     .817
Joe Mauer           2005     554     .783
Oswaldo Arcia       2013     133     .759
Tom Brunansky       1983     611     .753

I've included Arcia on the age-22 list despite his not having enough plate appearances to qualify yet because he's actually what got me thinking about this topic in the first place. Arcia has fared well enough in the early going that I wondered how his production compares to other 22-year-old Twins, discovering that he's in some pretty nice company with Kent Hrbek, David Ortiz, Mauer, and Brunansky.

In all a total of 12 different Twins have gotten at least 300 plate appearances at age 22 and Hrbek leads the way by hitting .301/.363/.485 with 23 homers in 140 games as a rookie in 1981. The worst OPS in the group of 22-year-olds belongs to Wynegar, who fell to .229/.307/.308 in his third season after being an All-Star at 20 and 21. Rivas, Guzman, Versalles, Carew, and Carlos Gomez also posted a sub-.700 OPS at 22.


AGE 23              YEAR      PA      OPS
Joe Mauer           2006     608     .936
Justin Morneau      2004     312     .875
Kent Hrbek          1983     582     .855
Rod Carew           1969     504     .853
Cristian Guzman     2001     527     .811

Four of the truly elite hitters in Twins history ... and Guzman. He'd been terrible in his first two seasons with the Twins, but in 2001 he hit .308/.346/.507 with seven homers, 22 doubles, and an incredible 13 triples in the first half to make the All-Star team. And then just as everyone was getting excited about a switch-hitting 23-year-old shortstop emerging as a star Guzman hurt his shoulder, missed much of the second half, and resumed being a terrible hitter.

Mauer hit .347/.429/.507 in 140 games at age 23, becoming the first catcher in AL history to win a batting title. He likely should have finished either first or second in the MVP voting, but instead placed sixth while teammate Justin Morneau won the award based largely on racking up RBIs with Mauer on base in front of him. Two years earlier Morneau posted the second-best OPS by a 23-year-old in Twins history, hitting .271/.340/.536 in 74 games after a midseason call-up.

Carew, like Mauer, won his first batting title at age 23, hitting .332/.386/.467 in 1969 to boost his OPS by 200 points compared to 1968, which happened to be one of the lowest-scoring seasons in baseball history and the final season before MLB lowered the pitching mound. In all 28 different Twins have gotten at least 300 plate appearances at age 23 and 13 failed to crack a .700 OPS, including Torii Hunter and Roy Smalley.

Hicks hasn't reached 300 plate appearances yet, but his current .575 OPS at age 23 would rank third-worst ahead of only David McCarty (.542) and Danny Thompson (.482). Greg Gagne (.596) and Rich Becker (.599) also aren't very far ahead of Hicks and two guys who preceded him in center field, Gomez and Ben Revere, posted an OPS under .625 at 23. Next season Arcia will try to become the sixth Twins hitter to crack an .800 OPS at 23.


AGE 24              YEAR      PA      OPS
Kent Hrbek          1984     635     .906
Delmon Young        2010     613     .826
Denard Span         2008     411     .819
David Ortiz         2000     478     .810
Joe Mauer           2007     471     .808

Hrbek has the best OPS for 22-year-olds, the third-best OPS for 23-year-olds, and the best OPS for 24-year-olds. In his age-24 season listed above he hit .311/.383/.522 with 27 homers in 149 games, finishing runner-up in the MVP voting behind Tigers reliever Willie Hernandez despite not even making the All-Star team. Hrbek never finished in the top 15 in MVP voting before or after that season, although he had plenty of other productive years.

Delmon Young appeared to have a breakout season in 2010, hitting .298/.333/.493 with 21 homers and 46 doubles in 153 games at age 24 to convince a lot of people he was finally living up to the hype he received as a prospect. He finished 10th in the MVP balloting because some voters overlooked his terrible defense and focused on his high RBI total, but in three seasons since then he's hit just .263/.297/.404.

Ortiz has the second-best OPS for 22-year-olds and the fourth-best OPS for 24-year-olds, so while no one could have predicted that he'd become one of the elite hitters in baseball after leaving the Twins there was certainly plenty of promise shown at a young age. In all Ortiz hit .266/.348/.461 in 455 games for the Twins through age 25. In team history only Mauer, Hrbek, Morneau, and Rich Rollins had more plate appearances and a higher OPS than Ortiz through age 25.

By age 24 plenty of hitters are regulars in the majors and a total of 38 different Twins hitters got at least 300 plate appearances as 24-year-olds. Kirby Puckett ranks 34th out of 38 with a .655 OPS, hitting .296/.320/.336 with zero homers in 128 games as a rookie. Carew would hold the top spot among 24-year-olds with a .930 OPS in 1970, but a knee injury ended his season after 51 games with a .366 batting average.


AGE 25              YEAR      PA      OPS
Harmon Killebrew    1961     656    1.012
Justin Morneau      2006     661     .934
Tony Oliva          1964     719     .916
Bobby Kielty        2002     348     .890
Joe Mauer           2008     633     .864

Harmon Killebrew couldn't crack any of these lists before age 25 because the team didn't move to Minnesota until then. In his first Twins season Killebrew hit .288/.405/.606 with 46 homers and 107 walks. Five decades later he's still the only Twins hitter to top a .950 OPS by age 25. Tony Oliva also cracks these lists for the first time at 25 because it was his rookie season. He led the AL in batting average, runs, doubles, and total bases, winning Rookie of the Year.

Morneau's aforementioned MVP-winning 2006 season came at age 25, as he hit .321/.375/.556 with 34 homers and 37 doubles in 159 games. Morneau has the second-best OPS for 23-year-olds and 25-year-olds, but hit just .239/.304/.437 in between as a 24-year-old. Mauer cracks the top five in OPS for ages 22, 23, 24, and 25. And he likely would've had the top OPS for 21-year-olds too if not for the knee injury.

Bobby Kielty is the odd man out on the age-25 list, which reminds me that I've never been more wrong about a player. He was a switch-hitting outfielder with power and plate discipline, and as you can see Kielty put up big numbers at an early age. When the Twins traded Kielty to the Blue Jays for Shannon Stewart in 2006 he was a 26-year-old .269/.375/.444 hitter. I thought they'd made a terrible mistake. And then Kielty hit .246/.333/.389 after the trade, flaming out at 30.


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June 17, 2013

Gleeman and The Geek #98: Mr. Sunshine and The Grump

Topics for this week's "Gleeman and The Geek" episode included our night in a Target Field suite, praying for Samuel Deduno, Oswaldo Arcia showing he belongs again, Clete Thomas subbing for Aaron Hicks, the Byron Buxton experience, Trevor Plouffe coming off the disabled list hot, grumpy Bonnes and sunny Gleeman, starting a team from scratch, releasing Anthony Slama, mailbag questions from listeners, and being chased by the cops.

Gleeman and The Geek: Episode 98

In addition to the direct download link above you can also subscribe to the podcast via iTunes.


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June 14, 2013

Link-O-Rama

• My favorite The Onion headline in a while: "250 Million Americans Still Need Guests On Their Podcasts This Week."

• "Minnetonka Man" is back in the news!

• Last weekend's party bus outing to St. Cloud for a Northwoods League game was a big success. Platinum Transportation Services provided 20 adults with the perfect venue to act like idiots, the St. Cloud Rox welcomed us in style, and the only major incident was John Bonnes dancing.

Parker Hageman recapped the #StearnsCountyPartyBus on "The Sportive" podcast, offering up an extremely flattering portrayal of my role.

• It's tough to blame Glen Perkins for being upset that he couldn't go on the party bus.

• Indians closer Chris Perez and his wife got arrested for having marijuana delivered to their house in their dog's name.

• Anyone interested in regional linguistic differences like "pop" versus "soda" will love these heat maps representing the entire country.

This week's "Gleeman and The Geek" episode featured lots of talk about Miguel Sano's move up to Double-A, the Twins' draft picks, and the debauchery in St. Cloud.

• In addition to being one half of my favorite podcast Dave Shumka also makes amusing video compilations of David Letterman's running inside joke with drummers:

Seriously though, "Stop Podcasting Yourself" is something you should be listening to.

• I think we should all go to the Twins' open tryout at the Metrodome next week.

Eddie Guardado, whom the Twins are inducting into their Hall of Fame this weekend, ranked 26th on my countdown of the best Twins of all time.

• I wore JNCO jeans throughout junior high school despite having zero skateboarding ability, so this BuzzFeed list was a painful way to relive being a poser with terrible fashion sense.

Jerry Seinfeld's web series "Comedians In Cars Getting Coffee" is back for a second season and the first episode provides the latest evidence that Sarah Silverman is the best.

• "Man shot inside Pizza Luce in downtown Minneapolis" isn't a surprising headline if you read my recap of last year's SABR convention and remember my late-night adventures there.

• This is probably the most important news story in the history of the internet.

• There's never been a better advertisement for Checkerboard Pizza's chicken wings, but even washing your hands afterward is pretty amazing.

Three of the greats: Norm MacDonald, Gilbert Gottfried, and Gilbert Gottfried's laugh.

• Stuff learned re-watching "The Sopranos" a decade later: Buster Bluth was Junior Soprano's chemotherapy nurse, Meadow Soprano was a big Jonny Lang fan, and Omar Little may not have been the best host.

• "Mr. Show" and "Breaking Bad" fans will enjoy Bob Odenkirk's chat with Paul F. Tompkins:

"Let's start the horseshit!"

• After experiencing his first draft as the Astros' pro scouting director former Baseball Prospectus writer Kevin Goldstein talked to Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller about life behind the scenes.

Jon Hamm's second cousin was drafted by the Nationals in the 14th round.

• My favorite part of Esquire's interview with Christina Hendricks: "They asked me what a man should drink and I said Scotch."

• As a Hebrew school expellee I loved hearing Seth Rogan and Marc Maron commiserate about how they both made Hebrew school teachers cry as kids.

• On a related note, Maron was a guest on Joan Rivers' in-bed talk show and her first words to him were: "All right, you're Jewish."

• Dodgers fans are buying a whole bunch of Yasiel Puig stuff.

• Twitter has a great sense of humor.

• New podcast discovery: "Lady To Lady" with Tess Barker, Barbara Gray, and Brandie Posey, which I discovered via the Alison Agosti episode because she's always a great guest.

• Some of this week's weird and random search engine queries that brought people here:

- "Miguel Sano huge"
- "Roy Smalley plastic surgery"
- "How long before cake turns to pounds?"
- "Carson Cistulli's wife"
- "Where is Bill Smith now?"
- "Is Ryan Braun a jerk?"
- "Larry David with beard"
- "Is Drew Butera still playing?"
- "Twins in House of Cards"
- "Joe Mauer pulled balls"

• Finally, this week's AG.com-approved music video is "Downtown Train" by Tom Waits:


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June 12, 2013

Twins Notes: Sano, Buxton, Hicks, Arcia, Rosario, and Richardson

miguel sano fort myers

• Last year the Twins kept Miguel Sano at low Single-A for the entire season despite his having the second-highest OPS in the Midwest League. He moved up to high Single-A to begin this year and was even better, so this time around the Twins decided that a promotion was in order after two months of Florida State League destruction. Sano fittingly homered twice in his final game for Fort Myers, including a monstrous blast in his last at-bat.

Overall he hit .330/.424/.655 with 16 homers in 56 games, leading the FSL in homers, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage despite being the league's youngest hitter. It just doesn't get much better for a 20-year-old stud prospect and in fact no FSL hitter of any age has topped his OPS since 27-year-old Morgan Burkhart in 1999. Sano even stole nine bases at an 82 percent clip and reviews of his defense at third base have been a little more positive than last year.

And now he moves up to Double-A, where the average pitcher is five years older than Sano and both the off-speed pitches and command are much sharper than Single-A. It's a huge test for a truly elite hitting prospect, so even holding his own there at age 20 would be more evidence that Sano is very special and thriving there would put him on the verge of the majors. Aaron Hicks and Oswaldo Arcia arrived in Minnesota having played a combined nine games at Triple-A.

• Presumably the Twins considered promoting Byron Buxton in tandem with Sano to give Fort Myers a new stud prospect after losing the FSL's best hitter. For now at least Buxton remains at low Single-A, where he's batting .350/.444/.578 with 29 extra-base hits, 26 steals, and nearly as many walks (39) as strikeouts (44) in 58 games as a 19-year-old. Toss in standout defense in center field and Buxton's performance has been every bit as impressive as Sano's.

FOX Sports North broadcast Monday afternoon's Cedar Rapids game and Buxton put on a show, going 3-for-4 with a bases-loaded double off the left-center field wall, a legged-out triple on a ball that didn't even get to the right-center field wall, and a spectacular sprawling catch. No doubt the Twins wanted to avoid promoting Buxton until after FSN's special broadcast, but the kid is leading the Midwest League in batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage.

Eddie Rosario and Angel Morales are joining Sano in getting the promotion from Fort Myers to New Britain. Rosario ranked No. 7 on my annual Twins prospect list coming into the season and has improved his stock since then, batting .329/.377/.527 with 24 extra-base hits in 52 games at high Single-A as a 21-year-old and reportedly getting more comfortable defensively in his ongoing transition from center fielder to second baseman.

Morales once ranked among the Twins' top prospects, but injuries and poor performances have sent the 2007 third-round pick's stock plummeting in recent years. He turned things around in a big way at Fort Myers, batting .297/.364/.525 with 28 extra-base hits and 20 walks in 55 games as the everyday center fielder, but it's worth noting that Morales is 23 years old and had already played there for part of 2011 and all of 2012.

• Hicks' hamstring injury puts on hold the rookie's slow climb to respectability following a brutal 2-for-48 start to his career. Hicks has hit .225/.275/.423 in 42 games since then, which is at least more in line with standard rookie struggles. Oddly enough when Hicks couldn't buy a hit he drew walks in bunches, but he's walked just 10 times versus 36 strikeouts in those 42 games. His less patient approach resulted in plenty of pop, with six homers and a .198 Isolated Power.

To replace Hicks on the roster the Twins recalled Arcia from Triple-A just two weeks after sending him back there in part due to a lack of consistent playing time. Arcia clearly has no business in center field, the corner outfield logjam hasn't lessened any in the meantime, and he hit just .218 in 15 games at Triple-A between call-ups, so it's not exactly an ideal situation. Also far from ideal: Clete Thomas will presumably be the everyday center fielder with Hicks out.

• Thomas was playing well in Rochester, but he's a .250/.326/.423 hitter in 400 career Triple-A games and at 29 years old is the epitome of a replacement-level outfielder. Darin Mastroianni's ankle injury left the Twins short on center field depth and that's what replacement-level talent is there for, but if they were turning to a Triple-A journeyman as a stop gap Antoan Richardson would have been a more interesting call-up.

Richardson is the same age as Thomas and has only a brief cup of coffee with the Braves in 2011, but he's hit .314 with a .451 on-base percentage between Double-A and Triple-A this season and has a .404 OBP for his career. Thomas has much more power and perhaps the Twins don't trust Richardson's defense, but the switch-hitter has topped a .400 OBP in three straight seasons while averaging 40 steals per 150 games. Why not give him a shot in the unproductive leadoff spot?

• For the second time in two weeks the Twins lost a former top prospect in order to clear 40-man roster space. Joe Benson was claimed off waivers by the Rangers and now Tyler Robertson was claimed off waivers by the Nationals. At this point Benson and Robertson are long shots to become valuable big leaguers, but they at least have some upside remaining and the same can't be said of 40-man roster holdovers like Drew Butera and Cole De Vries.

When discussing the Twins' haul in last week's draft it's worth noting that Benson and Robertson were their second- and third-round picks in 2006. They both developed well enough to emerge as good prospects, with Benson even cracking Baseball America's top 100 in back-to-back seasons, only to be lost for nothing. Neither loss is hugely troubling in a vacuum, but considering how much the Twins preach patience with prospects it's frustrating to lose talent when it could be avoided.

Alex Meyer, the 6-foot-9 right-hander who was acquired from the Nationals for Denard Span and ranks as the Twins' best pitching prospect, is on the Double-A disabled list with shoulder soreness. Hopefully it proves to be a minor injury, because Meyer was off to a very good start with a 3.69 ERA and 73-to-27 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 61 innings while holding opponents to a .226 batting average and just three homers.

• It took seven seasons, but Carlos Gomez is finally living up to his potential by becoming one of the best all-around players in baseball. Unfortunately it's coming far too late to help the Twins and Gomez's recent comments about how he's changed as a hitter sound a lot like David Ortiz's old comments when he started thriving with the Red Sox:

Before, Carlos Gomez tried to put the ball in play, hit the ball on the ground, because that's what people wanted. That takes my ability out. That's not me. I'm a free swinger. I like to swing hard, whether I have one or two strikes. When I step to the plate, I try to hit a home run.

I may hit a ball to right field, but I'm not trying to. I’m letting my instincts and my ability do the job. I'm looking for my pitch, a pitch I can hit out of the ballpark. If they throw me a different pitch, I can make the change and hit the ball the other way. If I try to hit the ball the other way, I get in trouble, because I slow down my swing. That’s not me.

Obviously the Brewers deserve credit for Gomez's development, but he joins Ortiz and some other less prominent players in suggesting that the Twins stifled power potential by forcing hitters to fit their preferred mold.

Scott Diamond allowed double-digit hits Sunday for the sixth time in 45 starts and opponents are now batting .293 off him for his career. That ranks as the fifth-highest batting average against in Twins history among all pitchers with 250 or more innings:

Travis Miller      .304
Nick Blackburn     .303
Carlos Silva       .303
Bob Tewksbury      .294
Scott Diamond      .293

If you can't strike anyone out you're going to give up a ton of hits and the above list is basically a mediocre middle reliever and four of the biggest pitch-to-contact starters you'll ever find.

• In the American League there are 66 pitchers with at least 50 innings and only three of them have a strikeout rate below 4.5 per nine innings: Diamond, Kevin Correia, Mike Pelfrey.

• Last year the Twins drafted Connecticut second baseman L.J. Mazzilli in the ninth round and he ended up being their highest pick not to sign, returning to school for his senior season. Mazzilli hit .354/.408/.515 with 29 steals in 63 games and was drafted by the Mets in the fourth round, so Lee Mazzilli's son probably earned himself an extra $250,000.

• Current third base coach and former hitting coach Joe Vavra's son, Valparaiso infielder Tanner Vavra, was drafted by the Twins in the 30th round. Nepotism aside Vavra has an incredible story, overcoming being blinded in his right eye by two serious childhood injuries to hit .332 as a junior and .330 as a senior. He's very much a legitimate late-round pick.

• General managers usually get the credit or blame for draft picks, but Terry Ryan talked to Parker Hageman of Twins Daily about why that's misleading.

• Since taking over for Matt Capps last season Glen "Proven Closer" Perkins has converted 30-of-34 save chances with a 2.31 ERA and 77-to-10 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 66 innings.

Delmon Young in 225 games since leaving the Twins: .263/.296/.424 with 171 strikeouts, 33 walks, and 31 double plays. Toss in defense and he's been worth -1.5 Wins Above Replacement.

Francisco Liriano has a 1.75 ERA and 47 strikeouts in 36 innings for the Pirates.

• For a lot more about Sano's promotion and the Twins' draft, check out this week's "Gleeman and The Geek" episode.


This week's blog content is sponsored by Ticket King, a local ticket broker that doesn't charge check-out fees, offers in-store pickup, and specializes in Twins tickets. Please support them for supporting AG.com.

June 11, 2013

Twins follow Kohl Stewart pick by loading up on pitchers and catchers

ryan eades lsu draft

By choosing high school pitcher Kohl Stewart with the fourth overall pick the Twins took a huge risk and veered away from their typical draft strategy, but they went back to normal in the second round. As a college starter with three seasons of major conference experience LSU right-hander Ryan Eades was a prototypical Twins target with the 43rd pick and in fact he's the eighth college pitcher selected by the Twins with a top-50 pick since 2005.

Eades missed his senior season of high school following shoulder surgery, but was injury free for three years at LSU and led the team in starts this season. However, fading down the stretch in both 2012 and 2013 puts his durability in some question and caused ESPN to rate Eades as the draft's No. 59 prospect despite noting that he "looked like a mid-first-rounder for the first seven weeks of the season."

Even after a late-season fade Eades finished with an 8-1 record and 2.81 ERA in 16 starts for one of the best teams in the country, but a .269 opponents' batting average and just 77 strikeouts in 96 innings are underwhelming. And that modest strikeout rate is actually an improvement over last season, when Eades managed just 63 strikeouts in 94 innings while allowing opponents to hit .296. Combined during his final two years Eades averaged 6.6 strikeouts per nine innings.

Eades' bat-missing ability paled in comparison to LSU's aces. Last year it was Kevin Gausman, who was drafted fourth overall by the Orioles, and averaged 9.8 strikeouts per nine innings. This year it was Aaron Nola, who projects as a potential top-10 pick in 2014, and got 9.2 strikeouts per nine innings. Eades obviously isn't on the same level as Gausman and Nola or he wouldn't have been available at No. 43, but the point is that his raw stuff has yet to turn into strikeouts.

With that said, it's good raw stuff. Baseball America rated him 37th in the class, noting that Eades "looks the part of a frontline starter" with "an athletic 6-foot-3, 198-pound frame" and fastball that reaches the mid-90s. According to BA he's "honed his breaking ball into a power curveball" and also works with a two-seam fastball and a changeup, the latter of which may prove to be the key to Eades developing into a successful big-league starter.

In the third round the Twins selected University of Mississippi catcher Stuart Turner, who has a reputation for being a good defender with an iffy bat despite hitting .374/.444/.518 in 62 games this season. Turner played just one season against top-flight competition, transferring to Ole Miss from a junior college, and Baseball America notes that "scouts don't like his swing and question his ability to sting the ball consistently."

There are no such questions behind the plate, as BA calls Turner the best defensive catcher in the class who "combines strength at 6-foot-2, 220 pounds with flexibility, agile feet, and excellent arm strength." ESPN offers similar praise, calling Turner the draft's "best catch-and-throw guy" with "outstanding hands and a plus arm." All of which suggests that he'd project as a backup if the scouts are right to doubt his bat and a good all-around starter if the numbers prove them wrong.

In the fourth round the Twins took another high school pitcher in California left-hander Stephen Gonsalves, who actually rated three spots higher than Turner on BA's list. Their scouting report says he "entered the spring as a potential first-round pick, but his stock has fallen as scouts have been disappointed with his inconsistent velocity and command." When he's going well Gonsalves throws in the low-90s and at 6-foot-5 "is intriguing because of his body and projection."

And he's tiny compared to fifth-round pick Aaron Slegers, a 6-foot-10 right-hander who starred for Indiana after barely pitching before this season due to injuries. Slegers walked just 15 batters in 16 starts and had a 2.16 ERA, but also managed just 54 strikeouts in 97 innings. BA notes that he's capable of reaching the mid-90s, but "got tired as he dealt with a regular workload for the first time" and lacks a consistently effective breaking ball.

In the eighth round the Twins took Slegers' teammate, third baseman Dustin DeMuth, who led Indiana with a .389 batting average but didn't draw many walks or hit for much power. According to BA scouts aren't sure if he'll stick at third base defensively and despite being 6-foot-3 his swing isn't really conducive to power development, but "he makes consistent contact ... with plus speed and arm strength."

Florida high school catcher Brian Navarreto was the sixth-round pick and the Twins took another catcher, New Mexico senior Mitchell Garver, in the ninth round. Based on skills alone Navarreto may have gone 2-3 rounds higher, but his involvement in an ugly on-field brawl likely dropped his stock. Garver had good numbers in a hitter-friendly environment and he's a typical "senior sign" who's already agreed to a below-slot deal that saves the Twins money to use on other picks.

In all the Twins had 10 of the first 300 picks in the draft and used all but one of them on pitchers or catchers, with DeMuth the only exception. Loading up on pitching certainly isn't surprising, but taking catchers in the third, sixth, and ninth rounds stands out as an unexpected strategy. Overall they went for long-term upside in Stewart and Gonsalves, did their standard thing with a bunch of college right-handers, and stocked up on backstops.

It'll be hard for the 2013 draft to look like a good one for the Twins unless Stewart pans out, but in general their approach seems fairly sound and based on pre-draft rankings from BA, ESPN, and MLB.com they didn't really step too far out on a limb with any selections. Last year it was tough not to love the Twins' draft haul because of Buxton at No. 2 and a bunch of extra early picks as compensation for losing free agents, but this year's group has a lot to like too.

For much more on the Twins' draft picks, check out this week's "Gleeman and The Geek" episode.


This week's blog content is sponsored by Ticket King, a local ticket broker that doesn't charge check-out fees, offers in-store pickup, and specializes in Twins tickets. Please support them for supporting AG.com.

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