March 7, 2007
Top 50 Prospects of 2007: 31-40
Below you'll find the second installment of my fifth annual ranking of the top 50 prospects in baseball, which is not to be confused with the team-specific "Top 40 Twins Prospects of 2007" series that I completed last month. I began publishing my prospect rankings back in 2003 at the Baseball Primer site that has since become Baseball Think Factory, and the 2004, 2005, and 2006 versions can all be found at The Hardball Times.
These rankings reflect my feeling about each player's long-term chances for (and degree of) success in the major leagues and are by no means authoritative, because I'm no more an expert on prospects than anyone else who follows them closely. You'll likely find that my rankings lean more heavily towards older, established prospects than many other rankings, and a further explanation of what I base the rankings on can be found in the introduction to last year's series.
40. James Loney | Los Angeles Dodgers | 1B | Age: 23 | Bats: Left
YEAR LV AB AVG OBP SLG HR XBH BB SO
2004 AA 395 .238 .314 .327 4 25 42 75
2005 AA 504 .284 .357 .419 11 44 59 87
2006 AAA 366 .380 .426 .546 8 43 32 34
MLB 102 .284 .342 .559 4 15 8 10
Scouting-based assessments have loved James Loney since the Dodgers made him a first-round pick in 2002, keeping the faith through a string of injuries and poor years. Loney finally came through with a big season, leading the minors by hitting .380 at Triple-A before slugging .559 in 48 games with the Dodgers. Despite Loney's power showing in Los Angeles, he projects more as a slick-fielding, high-average doubles hitter, although he may have to break into the lineup as an outfielder.
39. Scott Elbert | Los Angeles Dodgers | SP | Age: 22 | Throws: Left
YEAR LV G GS ERA IP H HR SO BB
2004 RK 12 12 5.26 49.2 47 5 45 30
2005 A- 25 24 2.66 115.0 83 8 128 57
2006 A+ 17 15 2.37 83.2 57 4 97 41
AA 11 11 3.61 62.1 40 11 76 44
Few pitching prospects have been more overpowering than Scott Elbert over the past two years, as he struck out 301 batters in 261 innings and held opponents to a sub-.200 batting average. What could keep him from becoming an ace-caliber starter is throwing strikes and keeping the ball in the ballpark, because over those same 261 frames he walked 141 batters and served up 23 homers. The control is likely to improve with experience, but Elbert's fly-ball tendencies mean the long-ball problems may not.
38. Jose Tabata | New York Yankees | RF | Age: 18 | Bats: Right
YEAR LV AB AVG OBP SLG HR XBH BB SO
2005 RK 156 .314 .382 .417 3 9 15 14
2006 A- 319 .298 .377 .420 5 28 30 66
Signed by the Yankees for a half-million dollars out of Venezuela in 2005, Jose Tabata doesn't turn 19 years old until August, making him the second-youngest player in these rankings. Tabata hit .314 in rookie-ball after signing and then batted .298/.377/.420 in 86 games at low Single-A before a thumb injury cut last season short. It's often silly to get overly excited about a teenager in the low minors, but both scouting- and numbers-based assessments agree that Tabata has the potential to be special.
37. Ian Stewart | Colorado Rockies | 3B | Age: 22 | Bats: Left
YEAR LV AB AVG OBP SLG HR XBH BB SO
2004 A- 505 .319 .398 .594 30 70 66 112
2005 A+ 435 .274 .353 .497 17 56 52 113
2006 AA 462 .268 .351 .452 10 58 50 103
The 10th overall pick in the 2003 draft who tore up the low minors early in his pro career, Ian Stewart's prospect stock has dropped in consecutive years and he could be looking at a move to the outfield with Garrett Atkins seemingly entrenched at third base in Colorado. With that said, at the end of the day a .268/.351/.452 hitting line from a 21-year-old at Double-A is still plenty good and Stewart's bat has enough potential to make him an impact player regardless of position.
36. Jarrod Saltalamacchia | Atlanta Braves | C | Age: 22 | Bats: Switch
YEAR LV AB AVG OBP SLG HR XBH BB SO
2004 A- 323 .272 .348 .437 10 31 34 83
2005 A+ 459 .314 .394 .519 19 55 57 99
2006 AA 313 .230 .353 .380 9 28 55 71
One of the breakout prospects of 2005 after hitting .314/.394/.519 at Single-A, Jarrod Saltalamacchia fell all the way to .230/.353/.380 at Double-A last year. However, trying to play through a wrist injury means his stock hasn't dipped as much as it seems, and he thrived after returning from the disabled list. I remain confident that Saltalamacchia will develop into an impact hitter, but so-so scouting reports on his defense and the presence of Brian McCann in Atlanta means it may not come as a catcher.
35. Kevin Kouzmanoff | San Diego Padres | 3B | Age: 25 | Bats: Right
YEAR LV AB AVG OBP SLG HR XBH BB SO
2004 A- 473 .330 .394 .526 16 56 44 75
2005 A+ 254 .339 .401 .591 12 36 24 51
2006 AA 244 .389 .449 .660 15 35 23 34
AAA 102 .353 .409 .647 7 16 10 12
MLB 56 .214 .279 .411 3 5 5 12
Injuries and a lack of raw physical tools have set back Kevin Kouzmanoff's timetable, which is why he's still eligible for these rankings as a 25-year-old despite tearing the cover off the ball everywhere he's gone. A career .332/.395/.556 hitter in 349 minor-league games, including .379/.437/.656 between Double-A and Triple-A last year, Kouzmanoff now has a clear path to the Padres' starting job at third base after being shipped from Cleveland to San Diego for Josh Barfield this offseason.
34. Philip Humber | New York Mets | SP | Age: 24 | Throws: Right
YEAR LV G GS ERA IP H HR SO BB
2005 A+ 14 14 4.99 70.1 74 6 65 18
2006 A+ 7 7 2.37 38.0 24 4 36 9
AA 6 6 2.88 34.1 25 4 36 10
Rice's rotation provided three of the first eight picks in the 2004 draft, but Philip Humber, Wade Townsend, and No. 42 prospect Jeff Niemann have each been sidetracked by arm injuries since. In Humber's case it was Tommy John surgery midway through his first pro season, but he returned without missing a beat last year, posting a 2.83 ERA in 76.1 innings while holding opponents to a .199 batting average between Single-A and Double-A, with a late-season promotion to New York thrown in.
33. Jacoby Ellsbury | Boston Red Sox | CF | Age: 23 | Bats: Left
YEAR LV AB AVG OBP SLG HR XBH BB SO
2005 A- 139 .317 .418 .432 1 9 24 20
2006 A+ 244 .299 .379 .418 4 16 25 28
AA 198 .308 .387 .434 3 16 24 25
Jacoby Ellsbury hit .365 in three seasons at Oregon State before the Red Sox selected him with the 23rd overall pick in the 2005 draft and has since batted .306 as a pro. He hasn't shown much power, but boasts an outstanding 73-to-73 strikeout-to-walk and .391 on-base percentage, which sets him up to do damage with his exceptional speed. Along with 60 steals in 146 minor-league games, Ellsbury is considered a very good defensive center fielder and profiles as a similar player to Johnny Damon.
32. Jay Bruce | Cincinnati Reds | RF | Age: 20 | Bats: Left
YEAR LV AB AVG OBP SLG HR XBH BB SO
2005 RK 70 .257 .358 .457 4 6 11 22
2006 A- 444 .291 .355 .516 16 63 44 106
Taken out of a Texas high school with the 12th overall pick in the 2005 draft, Jay Bruce has produced a .283/.351/.506 hitting line in 171 pro games, including .291/.355/.516 with a Midwest League-leading 63 extra-base hits on the way to winning the MVP at low Single-A last season. Bruce could stand to improve his plate discipline and strike-zone judgment, but that's the case for most 20-year-olds and he projects as a middle-of-the-order bat who could move through the Reds' system quickly.
31. Carlos Gonzalez | Arizona Diamondbacks | RF | Age: 21 | Bats: Left
YEAR LV AB AVG OBP SLG HR XBH BB SO
2004 RK 300 .273 .327 .427 9 26 22 70
A- 51 .275 .288 .412 1 5 1 13
2005 A- 515 .307 .371 .489 18 52 48 86
2006 A+ 403 .300 .356 .563 21 60 30 104
AA 61 .213 .294 .410 2 8 7 12
Signed out of Venezuela in 2002, Carlos Gonzalez followed up winning MVP honors at low Single-A in 2005 by hitting .300/.356/.563 with 21 homers and 60 total extra-base hits in 104 games at high Single-A last season. Even in a very friendly environment for hitting, those numbers are impressive from a 20-year-old. I'd like to see Gonzalez cut down on his strikeouts while increasing his walks before I hop onto the bandwagon fully, but neither are at alarmingly low levels and he still has plenty of time.
