March 8, 2007
Top 50 Prospects of 2007: 21-30
Below you'll find the third installment of my fifth annual ranking of the top 50 prospects in baseball, which is not to be confused with the team-specific "Top 40 Twins Prospects of 2007" series that I completed last month. I began publishing my prospect rankings back in 2003 at the Baseball Primer site that has since become Baseball Think Factory, and the 2004, 2005, and 2006 versions can all be found at The Hardball Times.
These rankings reflect my feeling about each player's long-term chances for (and degree of) success in the major leagues and are by no means authoritative, because I'm no more an expert on prospects than anyone else who follows them closely. You'll likely find that my rankings lean more heavily towards older, established prospects than many other rankings, and a further explanation of what I base the rankings on can be found in the introduction to last year's series.
30. Hunter Pence | Houston Astros | RF | Age: 24 | Bats: Right
YEAR LV AB AVG OBP SLG HR XBH BB SO
2004 RK 199 .296 .369 .518 8 27 23 30
2005 A- 302 .338 .413 .652 25 42 38 53
A+ 151 .305 .374 .490 6 15 18 37
2006 AA 523 .283 .357 .533 28 67 60 109
Hunter Pence dropped into the second round of the 2004 draft because of an unorthodox style at the plate, but he's since proven that his gaudy college numbers were no fluke. After tearing apart two levels of Single-A in 2005, Pence made the jump to Double-A last season and hit .283/.357/.533 in 136 games. Pence's overall value would rise if he's able to handle center-field duties, but most feel he's better suited for right field over the long haul. He should get a chance in Houston by midseason.
29. Chris Iannetta | Colorado Rockies | C | Age: 24 | Bats: Right
YEAR LV AB AVG OBP SLG HR XBH BB SO
2004 A- 121 .314 .454 .496 5 11 27 29
2005 A+ 261 .276 .381 .490 11 31 45 61
AA 60 .233 .329 .417 2 6 8 15
2006 AA 156 .321 .418 .622 11 23 24 26
AAA 151 .351 .447 .510 3 16 24 29
MLB 77 .260 .370 .390 2 6 13 17
Taken out of North Carolina in the fourth round of the 2004 draft, Chris Iannetta has a .303/.410/.517 hitting line in 220 minor-league games, including .336/.433/.567 between Double-A and Triple-A last year. That earned him a late-season promotion to Colorado, where he hit .260/.370/.390 in 21 games. Considered a solid defender behind the plate, Iannetta has the potential be an elite offensive player at the position and is the favorite to claim the Rockies' starting job this spring.
28. Daric Barton | Oakland A's | 1B | Age: 21 | Bats: Left
YEAR LV AB AVG OBP SLG HR XBH BB SO
2004 A- 313 .313 .445 .511 13 36 69 44
2005 A+ 292 .318 .438 .469 8 26 62 49
AA 212 .316 .410 .491 5 26 35 30
2006 AAA 147 .259 .389 .395 2 12 32 26
Originally taken by St. Louis in the first round of the 2003 draft, Daric Barton was sent to Oakland in the deal for Mark Mulder in the winter of 2004. He had a fantastic year split between high Single-A and Double-A in 2005, but slumped early at Triple-A last season before suffering a broken elbow that shut him down in May. Barton has yet to show much power, but controls the strike zone extremely well and boasts a .425 career on-base percentage, including a .389 OBP as a 20-year-old at Triple-A.
27. Justin Upton | Arizona Diamondbacks | CF | Age: 19 | Bats: Right
YEAR LV AB AVG OBP SLG HR XBH BB SO
2006 A- 438 .263 .343 .413 12 41 52 96
Selected with the No. 1 overall pick three years after his brother, B.J. Upton, was taken No. 2 overall in 2002, Justin Upton's pro debut was viewed by many as disappointing. However, while his numbers weren't eye-popping, Upton showed a broad base of skills for an 18-year-old with 41 extra-base hits, 52 walks, and 15 steals in 113 games at low Single-A. Considered raw but promising in center field after playing shortstop in high school, Upton looks capable of thriving in every phase of the game.
26. Joey Votto | Cincinnati Reds | 1B | Age: 23 | Bats: Left
YEAR LV AB AVG OBP SLG HR XBH BB SO
2004 A- 391 .302 .419 .486 14 42 79 110
A+ 84 .298 .385 .560 5 12 11 21
2005 A+ 464 .256 .330 .425 17 42 52 122
2006 AA 508 .319 .408 .547 22 70 78 109
In an extremely weak year for first-base prospects--particularly of the power-hitting variety--Joey Votto narrowly stands out from the rest of the pack after hitting .319/.408/.547 with 70 extra-base hits in 136 games at Double-A last season to win the Southern League MVP. Votto struggled at high Single-A in 2005, but the former 2002 second-round pick has an otherwise solid track record and should have a clear path to a starting job in Cincinnati by 2008.
25. Adam Lind | Toronto Blue Jays | LF | Age: 23 | Bats: Left
YEAR LV AB AVG OBP SLG HR XBH BB SO
2004 A- 266 .312 .371 .477 7 30 24 36
2005 A+ 495 .313 .375 .487 12 58 49 77
2006 AA 348 .310 .357 .543 19 43 25 87
AAA 109 .394 .496 .596 5 12 23 18
MLB 60 .367 .415 .600 2 10 5 12
An eighth-round pick by the Twins out of high school, Adam Lind opted for college, hit .372 in two years at South Alabama, and was the Blue Jays' third-round pick in 2004. Lind batted .312, .313, and .310 in his first three pro stops, showing increased power from his college days, and then hit .394 in 34 games at Triple-A. That earned him a September promotion to Toronto, where Lind hit .367 in 60 at-bats. Frank Thomas' arrival blocks him for now, but Lind's bat will find its way into the lineup very soon.
24. Cameron Maybin | Detroit Tigers | CF | Age: 20 | Bats: Right
YEAR LV AB AVG OBP SLG HR XBH BB SO
2006 A- 385 .304 .387 .457 9 35 50 116
Selected 10th overall in the 2005 draft out of a North Carolina high school, Cameron Maybin made his pro debut last season and hit .304/.387/.457 in 101 games at low Single-A. Maybin's 116 strikeouts are a concern, but he showed a strong bat and good plate discipline for a teenager while swiping 27 bases and drawing rave reviews defensively in center field. Curtis Granderson's presence in Detroit means the Tigers don't have to rush Maybin, but he could move quickly through the minors anyway.
23. Fernando Martinez | New York Mets | CF | Age: 18 | Bats: Left
YEAR LV AB AVG OBP SLG HR XBH BB SO
2006 A- 192 .333 .389 .505 5 21 15 36
A+ 119 .193 .254 .387 5 11 6 24
Signed out of the Dominican Republic for a $1.4 million bonus as a 16-year-old in 2005, Fernando Martinez is the youngest player in these rankings and has one of the highest ceilings. Beginning last season as a 17-year-old at low Single-A, Martinez hit .333 with good power before batting just .193 (albeit with good power) following a promotion to high Single-A. At this stage those numbers take a backseat to tools, youth, and projectability, which are what Martinez's status is largely based on.
22. Nick Adenhart | Los Angeles Angels | SP | Age: 20 | Throws: Right
YEAR LV G GS ERA IP H HR SO BB
2005 RK 13 12 3.68 44.0 39 0 52 24
2006 A- 16 16 1.95 106.0 84 2 99 26
A+ 9 9 3.78 52.1 51 1 46 16
Considered an elite talent who dropped to the 14th round in 2004 following Tommy John surgery, Nick Adenhart has quickly regained that status with a 2.72 ERA and 204-to-66 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 208.1 pro innings. He overpowered hitters at low Single-A and continued to pitch well after a promotion to high Single-A last season, all before his 20th birthday. An overlooked aspect of Adenhart's prospect stock is that he's an extreme ground-ball pitcher who's served up a grand total of three career homers.
21. Felix Pie | Chicago Cubs | CF | Age: 22 | Bats: Left
YEAR LV AB AVG OBP SLG HR XBH BB SO
2004 A+ 415 .301 .364 .448 8 35 39 113
2005 AA 240 .304 .349 .554 11 33 16 53
2006 AAA 559 .283 .341 .451 15 56 46 126
Signed out of the Dominican Republic in 2001, Felix Pie has seemingly been a top prospect forever. Last season saw him reach Triple-A for the first time and Pie hit .283/.341/.451 as a 21-year-old. Pie is a career .294 hitter with an impressive power-speed combination and is considered a quality defender in center field, but has work to do on plate discipline and strike-zone judgment before he can put all the tools to good use. The Cubs have talked of calling Pie up for the past two years and may finally give in.
