March 20, 2007
Top 50 Prospects of 2007: 1-10
Below you'll find the final installment of my fifth annual ranking of the top 50 prospects in baseball, which is not to be confused with the team-specific "Top 40 Twins Prospects of 2007" series that I completed last month. I began publishing my prospect rankings back in 2003 at the Baseball Primer site that has since become Baseball Think Factory, and the 2004, 2005, and 2006 versions can all be found at The Hardball Times.
These rankings reflect my feeling about each player's long-term chances for (and degree of) success in the major leagues and are by no means authoritative, because I'm no more an expert on prospects than anyone else who follows them closely. You'll likely find that my rankings lean more heavily towards older, established prospects than many other rankings, and a further explanation of what I base the rankings on can be found in the introduction to last year's series.
10. Tim Lincecum | San Francisco Giants | SP | Age: 23 | Throws: Right
YEAR LV G GS ERA IP H HR SO BB
2006 A- 2 2 0.00 4.0 1 0 10 1
A+ 6 6 1.95 27.2 13 3 48 12
A diminutive right-hander with a unique delivery, Tim Lincecum fell to the Giants with the No. 10 pick in last June's draft despite leading college baseball in strikeouts. He destroyed the low minors after signing, combining to whiff 58 batters in 31 innings while holding opponents to a .127 batting average, and his mid-90s fastball caused a stir this spring. He has skeptics, but others make a compelling case for Lincecum's delivery as an asset and there's no denying his potential for overpowering hitters.
9. Yovani Gallardo | Milwaukee Brewers | SP | Age: 21 | Throws: Right
YEAR LV G GS ERA IP H HR SO BB
2004 RK 6 6 0.47 19.1 14 0 23 4
2005 A- 26 18 2.74 121.1 100 5 110 51
2006 A+ 13 13 2.09 77.2 54 4 103 23
AA 13 13 1.63 77.1 50 2 85 28
A second-round pick out of a Texas high school in 2004, Yovani Gallardo pitched very well in the low minors during his first two pro seasons and then put together an amazing year between Single-A and Double-A as a 20-year-old in 2006. Making 13 starts at each level, Gallardo led the minor leagues with 188 strikeouts, posted a 1.86 ERA in 156 innings, held opponents to a .192 batting average, and used his ground-ball tendencies to serve up just six homers.
8. Matt Garza | Minnesota Twins | SP | Age: 23 | Throws: Right
YEAR LV G GS ERA IP H HR SO BB
2005 RK 4 4 3.66 19.2 14 3 25 6
A- 10 10 3.54 56.0 53 5 64 15
2006 A+ 8 8 1.42 44.1 27 3 53 11
AA 10 10 2.51 57.1 40 2 68 14
AAA 5 5 1.85 34.0 20 1 33 7
MLB 10 9 5.76 50.0 62 6 38 23
A 2005 first-round pick out of Fresno State who emerged as an elite prospect last year, much was made of Matt Garza's struggles with the Twins. However, Garza seemed fatigued at the end of what was his first full season and posted a solid 4.75 ERA over 47.1 innings after an ugly debut. Before that he had a 1.99 ERA and 154-to-32 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 135.2 innings blitzing through three levels, holding opponents to a .179 batting average. A No. 3 starter now and a potential ace down the road.
7. Adam Miller | Cleveland Indians | SP | Age: 22 | Throws: Right
YEAR LV G GS ERA IP H HR SO BB
2004 A- 19 19 3.36 91.0 79 7 106 28
A+ 8 8 2.08 43.1 29 1 46 12
2005 A- 3 3 5.06 10.2 17 0 6 4
A+ 12 12 4.83 59.2 76 5 45 17
2006 AA 26 24 2.75 153.2 129 9 157 43
The 31st overall pick in the 2003 draft, Adam Miller put together a strong 2004 season before an elbow injury limited him to 70.1 mediocre innings in 2005. He came back strong in 2006 as a 21-year-old at Double-A, posting a 2.75 ERA and 157-to-43 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 153.2 innings. Armed with a fastball-slider combination that produces tons of ground balls, Miller held opponents to a .226 batting average and nine homers. After impressing the Indians this spring, his time at Triple-A could be brief.
6. Andy LaRoche | Los Angeles Dodgers | 3B | Age: 23 | Bats: Right
YEAR LV AB AVG OBP SLG HR XBH BB SO
2004 A- 244 .283 .375 .525 13 33 29 30
A+ 219 .237 .295 .434 10 23 17 42
2005 A+ 249 .333 .380 .651 21 36 19 38
AA 227 .273 .367 .445 9 21 32 54
2006 AA 230 .309 .419 .483 9 22 41 32
AAA 202 .322 .400 .550 10 25 25 32
Son of former two-time All-Star pitcher Dave LaRoche and brother of current Pirates first baseman Adam LaRoche, Andy LaRoche first made a name for himself by hitting .305 with 30 homers between Single-A and Double-A in 2005. He followed that up by hitting .315 with 19 homers between Double-A and Triple-A while playing through a torn labrum, posting a fantastic 64-to-66 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 117 games. Considered a solid defensive third baseman, LaRoche's all-around game is without flaw.
5. Homer Bailey | Cincinnati Reds | SP | Age: 21 | Throws: Right
YEAR LV G GS ERA IP H HR SO BB
2004 RK 6 3 4.38 12.1 14 0 9 3
2005 A- 28 21 4.43 103.2 89 5 125 62
2006 A+ 13 13 3.31 70.2 49 6 79 22
AA 13 13 1.59 68.0 50 1 77 28
The seventh overall pick in the 2004 draft out of a Texas high school, Homer Bailey began last season dominating hitters at high Single-A and then stepped it up a notch beyond that following a midseason promotion to Double-A. A 20-year-old facing much older competition, Bailey went 7-1 with a 1.59 ERA and 77-to-28 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 68 innings. There was talk of Bailey possibly joining the Reds in September and again this spring, but he'll begin the year in the minors to gain a little more polish.
4. Delmon Young | Tampa Bay Devil Rays | RF | Age: 21 | Bats: Right
YEAR LV AB AVG OBP SLG HR XBH BB SO
2004 A- 513 .320 .386 .536 25 56 53 120
2005 AA 330 .336 .386 .582 20 37 25 66
AAA 228 .285 .303 .447 6 22 4 33
2006 AAA 342 .316 .341 .474 8 34 15 65
MLB 126 .317 .336 .476 3 13 1 24
The No. 1 pick in the 2003 draft, Delmon Young hit .326 with 45 homers and 78 walks in his first 215 games while reaching Double-A as a 19-year-old, but has since seen his power and plate discipline decline. Young continued to hit well after a promotion to Triple-A in mid-2005, batting .306 over a 168-game stretch that includes a month in the majors, but managed just 17 homers and 20 walks during that span. He's still bound for stardom, but might be a different type of hitter than he initially appeared.
3. Chris Young | Arizona Diamondbacks | CF | Age: 23 | Bats: Right
YEAR LV AB AVG OBP SLG HR XBH BB SO
2004 A- 465 .262 .365 .505 24 60 66 145
2005 AA 466 .277 .377 .545 26 70 70 129
2006 AAA 402 .276 .363 .532 21 57 52 71
MLB 70 .243 .308 .386 2 6 6 12
The most underrated elite prospect in baseball, Chris Young is an outstanding defensive center fielder with big-time power, speed, and plate discipline. With 275 strikeouts between 2004 and 2005 his main weakness had been making consistent contact, but Young made huge strides in that department last season, striking out a total of 83 times in 472 at-bats between Triple-A and Arizona. The clear favorite for NL Rookie of the Year, Young is capable of a 20-20 season right out of the gates.
2. Philip Hughes | New York Yankees | SP | Age: 21 | Throws: Right
YEAR LV G GS ERA IP H HR SO BB
2005 A- 12 12 1.97 68.2 46 1 72 16
A+ 5 4 3.06 17.2 8 0 21 4
2006 A+ 5 5 1.80 30.0 19 0 30 2
AA 21 21 2.25 116.0 73 5 138 32
Taken in the first round of the 2004 draft out of a California high school, Philip Hughes has emerged as the consensus top pitching prospect in baseball thanks to electric stuff and impeccable numbers. After thoroughly dominating the low minors to begin his pro career, Hughes made the leap to Double-A as a 20-year-old, posting a 2.25 ERA, .179 opponent's batting average, and 138-to-32 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 116 innings. An extreme ground-ball pitcher, Hughes is a near-perfect pitching prospect.
1. Alex Gordon | Kansas City Royals | 3B | Age: 23 | Bats: Left
YEAR LV AB AVG OBP SLG HR XBH BB SO
2006 AA 486 .325 .427 .588 29 69 72 113
After winning the Golden Spikes Award during his final season at Nebraska, Alex Gordon went No. 2 overall in the 2005 draft behind Justin Upton. He jumped all the way to Double-A for his pro debut and filled the stat sheet by hitting .325 with 29 homers, 69 total extra-base hits, 72 walks, and 22 steals in 130 games. With Mark Teahen moving to right field, Gordon is expected to begin the season as the Royals' starting third baseman and is an obvious frontrunner for AL Rookie of the Year.
