September 21, 2011

“Gleeman and The Geek” #6: Marching Toward 100 Losses

This week's episode of "Gleeman and The Geek" was recorded at the Mainstreet Bar and Grill in Hopkins and my beer of choice was Fat Tire, but a dieting John Bonnes continued to shame himself by drinking club soda.

Topics included this weekend's TwinsCentric get-together, the Twins' involvement in statistical analysis, playing out the string with Double-A and Triple-A prospects, Chris Parmelee's future, the 2012 payroll situation, the danger of long-term contracts, Joe Mauer going down the Ted Williams path, targeting arbitration-eligible upgrades, avoiding the next Juan Castro, betting on Danny Valencia, putting a bow on the Jim Thome trade, and the Ben Revere excitement.

Gleeman and The Geek: Episode 6

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11 Comments »

  1. I’m listening to you now. Fangraphs says Revere is worth $1.2 million dollars more than Mauer this season.

    Comment by Craig H — September 21, 2011 @ 9:37 am

  2. Also on Fangraphs right now is an interview with John Gordon.

    Comment by mike wants wins — September 21, 2011 @ 9:39 am

  3. Interesting back and forth on Revere. It seems you’re focused on his slugging and by extension his OPS (which are both low). How do all of his stolen bases fit into the analysis? For example, if he had just 33 singles versus 33 singles + 33 stolen bases (ie 33 “doubles”) what would those doubles do to his slugging?
    I realize he still needs a better OBP, but a “highlight” you guys were looking for could be his stolen bases this year, which don’t seem to get much credit in the “statistical analysis”.
    Still not saying he’s “great”, but I would say “decent”, which Gleeman won’t even give him.

    Comment by Liner — September 21, 2011 @ 11:45 am

  4. http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=15093

    Wow, great piece. Really interesting.

    Comment by mike wants wins — September 21, 2011 @ 11:46 am

  5. Stolen bases aren’t the same as doubles. A single is not generally going to drive in a runner from first, and sometimes not from second. A double might.

    Liner, by what definition is he decent? Go look at his offensive stats on Fangraphs and compare them to other OFers. They are pretty bad. If your one ability is to steal bases, you need to get on base a lot more than Revere does. If by decent you mean well below the median, then sure, he’s decent.

    Comment by mike wants wins — September 21, 2011 @ 11:48 am

  6. Yeah, I know not the “same” as doubles, but I’m just trying to understand where steals get any credit in the statistical analysis (maybe they don’t and maybe they shouldn’t — I’m just trying to understand).
    I do get the poor offense argument and I realize he’s not driving runners in… I just think a guy on second or third (after stealing) would score more often and that would have some value, but I don’t see where that’s accounted for. Plus, maybe it’s not enough of a factor to make any kind of difference.

    Comment by Liner — September 21, 2011 @ 1:44 pm

  7. WAR on fangraphs takes into account baserunning. There is a section on it. How it is calculated is explained there. Revere is 10th among OFers with at least 400 at bats in terms of baserunning. He’s 5th in fielding. He’s the 2nd WORST hitting OFer with at least 400 ABs.

    Comment by mike wants wins — September 21, 2011 @ 2:35 pm

  8. 2nd worst? Who could possibly be worse? Does Drew Butera qualify as an outfielder?

    Comment by Matt #3 — September 21, 2011 @ 3:06 pm

  9. I’m sorry, but Ben Revere has been dreadful. Thome went all the way home from second on a hard single up middle last week. AJ went 2nd to 3rd and a semi deep fly. Alexi Ramirez went 1st to 2nd on a routine fly! Come on about his fielding already. It is an atrocity. He can make a dozen circus catches and that still won’t counterbalance his unbelievably flaccid arm. Yuk. It’s embarrassing!

    Not only that, as Aaron pointed out, he is having a historically (prehaps even histerically) awful season offensively. He can barely gets on base and the defense has him played (about 30 feet in) such that it will be very hard for him to have a batting average over .260. What is shocking to me is that he isn’t selective at the plate and he doesn’t drag bunt at all. I’d almost rather go with some FA filler like Ryan Ludwick and Coco Crisp just to block some of these AAAA guys from being up next year. Let Revere and some of these other guys turn around that disaster in Rochester first then we’ll see about callups. Revere simply isn’t ready and really shouldn’t be on the 25 man roster next year.

    But because he smiles, has fun and ‘flies all over the diamond’ he is the effusively praised by the Twins Media Machine and his sad sack manager. What a bizzare season this has been. Someone get me a tissue. I think I am going to cry.

    Comment by ewen21 — September 21, 2011 @ 6:55 pm

  10. Great debate on Revere guys. For the most part I think AG right, Revere has been horrible. But at the same time, I think being a bright spot doesn’t really have to be all about stats. Heck, I think Gomez was a bright spot, because he added excitement to the game. Heck again, Revere’s flip while rounding second was a bright spot for the team.

    Especially with how this season has gone.

    Comment by emoeby — September 22, 2011 @ 1:27 pm

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