March 19, 2012

Top 40 Twins Prospects of 2012: 15, 14, 13, 12, 11

Also in this series: 1-5, 6-10, 16-20, 21-25, 26-30, 31-35, 36-40.

15. Madison Boer | Reliever | DOB: 12/89 | Throws: Right | Draft: 2011-2

YEAR     LV      G     GS      ERA        IP       H     HR      SO     BB
2011     RK+    15      0     2.60      17.1      13      1      31      2
         A-      8      0     6.75       8.0      12      0      12      1

During the previous 11 drafts the Twins used a first-round pick or supplemental first-round pick on a college pitcher 10 times and took at least one college pitcher within the first 75 picks each year but 2001, 2006, and 2007. Last year Madison Boer was their first college pitcher at No. 87 overall after the 6-foot-4 right-hander from Eden Prairie had a 2.27 ERA, .234 opponents' batting average, and 74-to-35 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 99 innings as a junior at Oregon.

Baseball America's pre-draft scouting report noted that Boer worked in the low-90s as a starter, but also spent time in the bullpen and was clocked as high as 96 miles per hour as a reliever. After signing for $405,000 he debuted at rookie-level Elizabethon and was quickly promoted to low Single-A Beloit, working exclusively as a reliever while combining to throw 25 innings with a 3.91 ERA and absurd 43-to-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio.

Experienced college pitchers dominating low-level competition is par for the course in the Twins' farm system, so Boer's performance this year will be much more telling. For now the Twins plan to give him an opportunity as a starter, where Boer projects as a potential mid-rotation option, but his early success and increased velocity as a reliever suggest his fastball-slider combo might find a more impactful long-term home in the bullpen.

14. Hudson Boyd | Starter | DOB: 10/92 | Throws: Right | Draft: 2011-1

Selected out of a Florida high school with the No. 55 overall pick in last year's draft that the Twins received as compensation for losing Jesse Crain as a free agent and signed away from the University of Florida for a $1 million bonus just before the deadline, Hudson Boyd was the first high school pitcher taken by the Twins with a first-round pick or supplemental first-round pick since Kyle Waldrop in 2004.

Boyd was part of the Twins' ongoing but thus far very inconsistent effort to add "power arms" to the organization, as Baseball America's pre-draft scouting report compared him to Jonathan Broxton and Bartolo Colon for mid-90s heat as much as a 6-foot-3, 235-pound frame. He signed too late to debut last season and figures to begin his professional career as a rookie-ball starter.

Without even throwing a professional pitch yet Boyd immediately becomes one of the highest-upside pitchers in the Twins' entire organization and his path to the big leagues could speed up considerably if he's eventually shifted to the bullpen. Whatever the case, he's certainly an against-type pick by the Twins and a prospect who could be much higher on this same list next year.

13. Travis Harrison | Third Base | DOB: 10/92 | Bats: Right | Draft: 2011-1

Last year the Twins used the supplemental first-round pick they received as compensation for losing Orlando Hudson as a free agent to select high school slugger Travis Harrison, a third baseman who became the first high school position player they've taken in the first round for his bat more than his tools since Chris Parmelee in 2006. Baseball America's pre-draft scouting report noted that Harrison "easily rates as the best high school bat" in California.

He was already 6-foot-2 and 215 pounds at age 18, so while Harrison was a third baseman in high school he could wind up shifting across the diamond or to an outfield corner. Jonathan Mayo said during MLB Network's draft coverage that Harrison has impressive power potential, but there are questions about his approach at the plate. Baseball America's take was similar, noting his "above-average power potential" but also his difficulty "adjusting to breaking balls."

For an organization largely devoid of power-hitting prospects after years of focusing on speed and athleticism in the draft a right-handed-hitting corner infielder with plenty of pop in his bat was certainly a welcome addition. Twins scouting director Deron Johnson called Harrison "the best bat left on the board" with the 50th pick and they signed him away from USC for a $1.05 million bonus shortly before the August 15 deadline, meaning he'll debut this season.

12. Chris Parmelee | First Base | DOB: 2/88 | Bats: Left | Draft: 2006-1

YEAR     LV      PA      AVG      OBP      SLG     HR    XBH     BB     SO
2009     A+     501     .258     .359     .441     16     44     65    109
2010     A+      93     .338     .430     .463      2      5     13     11
         AA     463     .275     .341     .389      6     33     43     70
2011     AA     610     .287     .366     .436     13     48     68     94
         MLB     88     .355     .443     .592      4     10     12     13

Chris Parmelee was the 20th overall pick in the 2006 draft and through his first four seasons was a rare Twins prospect with power and plate discipline. He also struck out a ton and batted just .250, so two years ago the Twins overhauled his approach at the plate to sacrifice homers and walks for contact and singles. He went from hitting .250 with a .200 Isolated Power and 26 percent strikeouts to hitting .285 with a .135 Isolated Power and 15 percent strikeouts.

That change is dramatic and no doubt raised his stock within the organization, but Parmelee's overall production remained mediocre and a first baseman slugging just .416 with 19 homers in 253 games at Double-A isn't encouraging. However, when pressed into action by the Twins' numerous injuries and promoted from Double-A to the big leagues in September he hit .355 with four homers, six doubles, and nearly as many walks (12) as strikeouts (13) in 21 games.

Parmelee looked great in September, showing power and patience and just about everything else you'd want to see from a 23-year-old, but 21 impressive games in the majors don't wipe away 653 underwhelming games in the minors and there are plenty of questions about him being more than an adequate regular. Parmelee has yet to play at Triple-A, so he'll likely begin this season in Rochester while the Twins find out if Justin Morneau can stay in the lineup.

11. Adrian Salcedo | Starter | DOB: 4/91 | Throws: Right | Sign: Dominican

YEAR     LV      G     GS      ERA        IP       H     HR      SO     BB
2009     RK-    11     10     1.46      61.2      60      1      58      3
2010     RK+    16      8     3.27      66.0      55      3      65     10
         A+      6      6     6.26      27.1      42      3      16      8
2011     A-     29     20     2.93     135.0     131      4      92     27

Adrian Salcedo has been pounding the strike zone since the Twins signed him out of the Dominican Republic as a 16-year-old in 2007, walking just 56 batters in 355 innings despite generally being young for the level of competition. That alone is enough to make him a solid prospect, particularly since his raw stuff features a low-90s fastball, but Salcedo's upside is in question because his strikeouts have vanished.

He had 8.7 strikeouts per nine innings in rookie-ball, but has managed just 5.9 strikeouts per nine innings at Single-A. That includes 92 strikeouts in 135 innings at low Single-A last season, which is the only thing that keeps his 2.93 ERA for Beloit as a 20-year-old from being extremely impressive. Salcedo didn't miss many bats, but he issued just 1.8 walks per nine innings and served up only four homers in 562 plate appearances.

Salcedo is 6-foot-4 and skinny, throws relatively hard already, and gets praise for his solid off-speed stuff, so there's reason to be optimistic about him adding a couple more miles per hour while upping his strikeout rate. If that happens he has No. 2 starter potential, but barring that he looks like a future mid-rotation starter who fits the Twins' preferred pitching mold perfectly.

  • TMW

    Yikes. For 11-15, that is a lot of development and health variance to worry about before their big league debuts, aside from Parmalee.

  • wrong em

    I’m curious: you tend to rely heavily on stats for most of these ratings; how do you arrive at a ranking for the guys who haven’t played professionally yet?

  • AM.

    So, that leaves:

    10-Hendriks
    9-Michael
    8-
    7-
    6-Gibson
    5-Benson
    4-
    3-Arcia
    2-Rosario

  • AM.

    So, that leaves:

    10-Summers?
    9-Dozier
    8-Michael
    7-Hendriks
    6-Gibson
    5-Benson
    4-Hicks
    3-Arcia
    2-Rosario
    1-Sano

  • AM.

    Ah, Summers is #23…who is missing?

  • AM.

    Ahhhh….Wimmers….assuming Aaron doesn’t want to slide Nishi back into the top 10 again.

    Interested to see how high you put Gibson, Aaron…or Michael Levi, for that matter!

  • ML

    Nishi has got to be in the top 40 (right?) so his absence so far has me wondering.

    Considering last year’s 11-15, I take these all with a grain of salt.

  • Jeff

    Nishi isn’t a prospect. And if he were, I’m not sure he’d be in the top 40.

  • ML

    Good point, Jeff.