November 14, 2012

Free agent pitching options: Middle-of-the-rotation starters

Twins starting pitchers combined for a 5.00 ERA during the past two seasons to rank dead last in the league and they head into the offseason with only Scott Diamond locked into a rotation spot. Terry Ryan has said he'd prefer to address the rotation via trades, which is no surprise for a team that's basically never pursued free agent pitching beyond bargain-bin shopping, but if they do decide to dive into the free agent pitching pool the water is reasonably deep.

In an effort to figure out the Twins' options I've separated the free agent pitching class into three categories: Top-of-the-rotation starters, middle-of-the-rotation starters, and back-of-the-rotation starters. Below are the middle-of-the-rotation starters, which I view as a No. 3 or No. 4 starter on a contending team and, for example, what Diamond seems likely to be long term if things go well and what new Cubs signee Scott Baker was before elbow surgery.

Shaun Marcum - RHP - 124 innings - 3.70 ERA - 4.21 xFIP - 109/41 K/BB

Marcum never threw hard, but has topped out in the high-80s since returning from Tommy John surgery in 2010. Despite that he has a 3.62 ERA and above-average strikeout rate in 520 innings during that time, thanks largely to a great changeup. After staying mostly healthy in back-to-back seasons Marcum again had elbow issues in 2012, but he pitched well in September. He's a prototypical Twins pitcher and the injuries could drop Marcum into their price range.

Brandon McCarthy - RHP - 111 innings - 3.24 ERA - 4.23 xFIP - 73/24 K/BB

A former top prospect repeatedly derailed by injuries, McCarthy finally got healthy and thrived for the A's before a second straight strong year was ruined by a line drive to the head on September 5 that led to brain surgery. Obviously his health is a serious question mark and McCarthy isn't as good as his numbers looked in pitcher-friendly Oakland, but he's a solid 28-year-old starter who fits the Twins' strike-throwing mold and is someone to root for on and off the field.

Joe Blanton - RHP - 191 innings - 4.71 ERA - 3.39 xFIP - 166/34 K/BB

Blanton missed most of 2011 with an elbow injury and on the surface his return was ugly with a 4.71 ERA and 29 homers in 191 innings, but his secondary numbers were far better. Not only were his 7.8 strikeouts per nine innings a career-high, Blanton had the NL's second-best strikeout-to-walk ratio and his 3.39 xFIP ranked 16th in MLB. At age 31 he's not really a breakout candidate, but Blanton is a strike-thrower with more upside than his ERA suggests.

Kyle Lohse - RHP - 211 innings - 2.86 ERA - 3.96 xFIP - 143/38 K/BB ratio

Lohse was his usual mediocre self for the first five years after the Twins traded him in 2006, posting a 4.66 ERA in 665 innings, but during the past two seasons he had a 3.11 ERA in 399 innings for the Cardinals while starting seven playoff games. At age 34 and with significantly less impressive secondary numbers Lohse is a good bet to be among the offseason's most overpaid free agents, but even if he were available cheaply a Twins reunion would never happen.

Francisco Liriano - LHP - 157 innings - 5.34 ERA - 4.14 xFIP - 167/87 K/BB

Speaking of unlikely reunions, Liriano is a free agent after the Twins traded him to Chicago for a pair of non-prospects in July. He was the same occasionally dominant but mostly frustrating guy in Chicago, tossing 57 innings with a 5.40 ERA and rates of 9.2 strikeouts and 5.1 walks per nine innings. For the Twins he had a 5.31 ERA, 9.8 strikeouts, and 5.0 walks. At age 29 and with all those strikeouts Liriano has more upside than most on this list, but ... who knows.

Brett Myers - RHP - 65 innings - 3.31 ERA - 3.92 xFIP - 41/15 K/BB

In both 2008 and this year Myers was shifted from the rotation to the bullpen and made a closer, with strong results, but he's also been a quality starter for most of his career. He has 247 starts with a 4.27 ERA and 7.2 strikeouts per nine innings, including a 3.79 ERA and 340/123 K/BB ratio in 440 innings between 2010 and 2011. As a fly-ball pitcher he struggles to limit homers, but Target Field would help that if the Twins are willing to bring in a not-so-wonderful person.

Roy Oswalt - RHP - 59 innings - 5.80 ERA - 3.27 xFIP - 59/11 K/BB

Oswalt talked about retiring because of back problems, sat out the first two months before signing with the Rangers, and then got knocked around for a 5.80 ERA while being demoted to the bullpen. At age 35 he may simply be nearing the end of the line, but a 59-to-11 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 59 innings suggests Oswalt wasn't nearly as bad as his ERA. His velocity was the same as 2011, when he pitched well for the Phillies, and his track record is tough to beat.

Carlos Villanueva - RHP - 125 innings - 4.16 ERA - 4.09 xFIP - 122/46 K/BB

Villanueva had a lot of success as a starter in the minors, but has spent most of his big-league career as a long reliever and has been mediocre when called on to make spot starts. He started 16 times for Toronto in 2012, struggling to keep the ball in the ballpark while posting a 4.50 ERA, but also had an 86-to-25 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 92 innings. If given a chance to build up his arm strength as a full-time starter at age 29 he could provide nice value.

Erik Bedard - LHP - 126 innings - 5.01 ERA - 4.05 xFIP - 118/56 K/BB

He's basically never stayed healthy, has a reputation for being a pain in the ass, and posted a 5.01 ERA for the Pirates this year, but Bedard's superior secondary stats included 118 strikeouts in 126 innings. And during the previous five years his worst ERA was 3.76 and his worst strikeout rate was 7.8 per nine innings. I'd never invest big money or multiple years in Bedard, especially at age 34, but for the hope of 25 starts on a one-year deal he's got some bat-missing upside.

  • Mike

    None of these guys looks very good unless you compare them with what we have now. Sad sad state of pitching we are in.

  • BR

    McCarthy’s young and has yet to pitch his best season, I think. He’d be a decent upside signing, and a colorful Twitter addition. Snag him soon before guys like Sanchez sign.

    Villanueva also looks like a sneaky upside buy, albeit one you don’t overpay in years or $ for.

  • Brian

    My money is on Blanton being a Twin in 2013, and I think I’d be ok with that if he’s not alone.

  • Bradley

    As crazy as it sounds I don’t think Kyle Loshe belongs on this list. He’s going to get paid during free agency.

  • Cory

    Why not Scott Feldman? I’d love if they took a chance on him.

  • Jeff O

    Besides the guys that are obviously not going to happen, (Lohse, Oswalt, Liriano), I’d be happy with any of these guys. Hopefully two of them. McCarthy would be my favorite option.

  • frightwig

    Your notes on McCarthy indicate that he had put his arm troubles behind him, before a line drive off his head ruined his season. But, actually, he’d been pitching through arm injury for much of the season, and was sidelined for a couple weeks in late May, and again from late June into the second week of August. Even if McCarthy’s season hadn’t been cut short by the accident, he still would have finished with 22-23 starts and <140 innings.

    The year before, when he was supposedly "healthy," he also missed 6 weeks from mid-May through June, and finished with 170.1 IP in 25 starts–only the second time he made more than 20 starts in a season.

    McCarthy's a good pitcher, yes, but it's wrong to say that he ever "finally got healthy" except for that flukey line drive this past September. Make no mistake, the team that signs him will be getting a pitcher with high upside but has had chronic arm problems every year since 2007.

  • http://Aarongleeman.com Rick N

    I’d take a 1 year flyer on Bedard. Maybe they’d catch lightning in a bottle like they did a couple years ago with Pavano winning 17. McCarthy would be ideal. But the Twins will never pay what he is going to get. In fact I don’t see the Twins ponying up for any of the above starters except maybe Bedard who should come cheap. I like Corey’s suggestion on Feldman. Target Field would help his numbers too.

  • Chippy

    Funny how Oswalt always comes up in these discussions. Isn’t it kind of obvious that there is no way he’ll ever come to the Twins?
    AG’s list is of “potential” pitchers, so Oswald DOES belong on this list.
    However, in other places where I read Oswald chatter. . . It just isn’t realistic.

  • ML

    It’s doubtful that the Twins will sign any of these pitchers.

  • Drew

    Diamond, Gibson, Marcum, McCarthy, Hendriks.

    Even if we get two of the better options here our rotation still stinks.