November 7, 2011

Offseason shopping on a budget: Shortstops

Tsuyoshi Nishioka flopped, Trevor Plouffe can't be trusted defensively, Alexi Casilla appears to be locked in at second base, and as has been the case for the past decade they don't have an obvious long-term solution in the minors, which means the Twins will be in the market for a shortstop. Jose Reyes and Jimmy Rollins are wishful thinking, so here are 15 realistic options the Twins could pursue via trade or free agency and my take on whether or not they should.

Rafael Furcal: Most likely Furcal will be out of the Twins' price range, but if the big spenders are fighting over Reyes and Rollins there's a chance his demands could drop enough to get on their radar. Furcal hasn't been able to stay healthy and is coming off his worst season at age 33, but the speedy switch-hitter is a year removed from batting .300/.366/.450 and remains capable defensively. He's a risk, but if healthy few other shortstop options can offer his upside.

Jed Lowrie: Injuries and prolonged slumps have been the story of Lowrie's career so far and despite showing flashes of a strong bat he's 27 years old with a modest .252/.334/.408 career mark. He's also yet to play even 90 games in a season and there are some doubts about if he can handle being an everyday shortstop defensively. If the Twins trust his glove and Boston isn't asking a ton in trade the switch-hitting former first rounder could be a worthwhile gamble.

Marco Scutaro: If the Red Sox would rather keep Lowrie that could make Scutaro available. At age 36 he's at risk for a steep decline, but Scutaro's defensive numbers remain decent, he hit .299/.358/.423 in 113 games this season, and he's under contract for just one more year at $6 million. As a high-contact right-handed hitter with quality on-base skills and some pop Scutaro would be a much better fit atop the lineup than most other shortstop options.

Clint Barmes: His numbers away from Coors Field were terrible while playing for Colorado and Barmes hit just .244/.312/.386 in 123 games after a deal to Houston, but for an elite defensive middle infielder that's enough offense to make him a valuable all-around player. At age 33 the risk of a sudden range decline exists, but the free agent can dramatically improve the defense and has enough pop to be a palatable regular as long he's batting in the bottom of the lineup.

Jamey Carroll: He's quietly put together a decade-long career as a plus defender with strong on-base skills despite being stuck in the minors until age 28. Carroll had the best season of his career in 2010 at age 36 and then followed it up with an equally strong campaign at 37, hitting .290/.359/.347 with nearly as many walks (47) as strikeouts (58) and 10 steals without being caught. His range has slipped with age, but Carroll can be a nice stop gap on a one-year deal.

Ramon Santiago: As the Tigers' utility man Santiago has averaged just 278 plate appearances during the past four years, but he's hit .266/.335/.374 and is a plus defender at shortstop and second base. His power is limited and despite switch-hitting he's much weaker versus righties, but faring better off lefties might actually be a positive on the Twins. He'd be misused atop the lineup, but the free agent's on-base skills are decent enough to not be a total disaster there.

Ian Desmond: Linked to the Twins in the Denard Span-Drew Storen talks, Desmond took a step backward as the Nationals' shortstop in his second season, losing 50 points of OPS and remaining erratic defensively. Through his first 329 games Desmond has batted .262/.304/.387 with a putrid 262/68 K/BB ratio, 61 errors, and an Ultimate Zone Rating of -13.7 runs, so the Twins would have to be convinced that there's a lot more room for improvement at age 26.

Brendan Ryan: Defensive metrics consistently peg Ryan as a truly elite shortstop and while far from an asset offensively his .256/.313/.339 career line is basically identical to Casilla's career .252/.310/.337 mark. At age 30 he should have another season or two of fantastic glove work left in the tank and with one season remaining until free agency the Mariners may not want to give him a raise to around $3 million via the arbitration process.

Nick Punto: Last offseason the Twins smartly declined Punto's option for $4 million, but made a mistake by not offering him $1 million to return. He ended up signing with the Cardinals for $750,000 and missed much of the season with injuries, but when healthy had a career-year at the plate and started regularly in the playoffs. As a $4 million everyday player he'd again be a source of frustration, but as a utility man making $1 million Punto would be plenty useful.

Reid Brignac: Trading with the Rays should make every Twins fan nervous, but if Tampa Bay is sick of waiting for Brignac's bat to develop he may be worth acquiring at a big discount. Once a top prospect, he's now a 25-year-old career .231/.272/.325 hitter in 240 games. His stats in the minors aren't a whole lot better, but do suggest he can be something resembling a decent hitter and Brignac's glove rates well enough to support a sub par bat for the minimum salary.

Yuniesky Betancourt: An early reputation for a nice glove has given way to consistently awful defensive numbers and Betancourt has always been one of MLB's premier out-makers, with a .292 on-base percentage that ranks third-worst among all active players with at least 3,500 plate appearances. This season he got on base at a .271 clip, laughably drawing a grand total of 13 non-intentional walks in 152 games. Betancourt is a mess the Twins will hopefully avoid.

Alex Gonzalez: Gonzalez is one of the two hitters with 3,500 plate appearances and a worse career on-base percentage than Betancourt, with the major difference being that his defense has been good enough to live with the extreme out-making most years. At age 34 that may no longer be true and despite smacking 15 homers Gonzalez was brutal at the plate this season, hitting .241/.270/.372 with 126 strikeouts versus just 22 walks in 149 games.

Ronny Cedeno: His two great Triple-A half-seasons now look like obvious flukes, but Cedeno is still a quality defensive shortstop with just enough offense to be a passable stop-gap starter. Since being traded to Pittsburgh in mid-2009 he's hit .254/.297/.367 in 1,126 trips to the plate, which looks very ugly despite being just slightly below the MLB average of .263/.317/.380 for shortstops in 2011.

Jack Wilson: Once upon a time Wilson was a Gold Glove-caliber shortstop with a sub par bat who occasionally had a nice year offensively, but at age 33 his defense has fallen off and he's hit just .256/.292/.335 during the past four seasons. Wilson is a free agent after earning $34 million over the past six seasons, but if he's available for a one-year, $1 million deal and the Twins whiff on the various superior options he'd be a palatable last resort.

Orlando Cabrera: He already lacked range as a 34-year-old for the Twins down the stretch in 2009, so a 37-year-old Cabrera could be a disaster at shortstop and he's hit .251/.286/.332 in 253 games since leaving Minnesota. Cabrera, much like fellow over-the-hill free agents Miguel Tejada and Edgar Renteria, has a very recognizable name, tons of shortstop experience, and absolutely no business starting there for a big-league team in 2012.

July 27, 2011

Twins Notes: Span, Mijares, Cuddyer, Nathan, Aguilera, and Gibson

Amanda Comak of the Washington Times writes that Denard Span "is high on the Nationals' list of targets" and Ken Rosenthal of FOXSports.com reports that the two sides "have talked." Whether that means the Twins actually engaged in negotiations is unclear, but the Nationals are looking for a long-term solution in center field and Rosenthal speculates that shortstop Ian Desmond and one of Washington's relievers could interest the Twins.

Rosenthal specifically mentions Tyler Clippard, who's been one of the most dominant relievers in baseball since moving to the bullpen full time in 2009, posting a 2.59 ERA and 251 strikeouts in 209 innings while holding opponents to a .184 batting average. However, he also says the Nationals are "reluctant" to trade the 26-year-old Clippard and "unwilling" to move 23-year-old closer Drew Storen, in which case the Twins shouldn't even be engaging in talks for Span.

As a 25-year-old shortstop Desmond fills a Twins need in theory, but aside from hitting .355 for two months at Triple-A in 2009 he simply hasn't been any good. Desmond hit .259/.326/.388 in 638 total games as a minor leaguer and has hit .254/.296/.377 in 269 games for the Nationals. He's also committed 54 errors with an Ultimate Zone Rating of -7.5 in 259 games at shortstop. Clippard is very intriguing, but Desmond as the centerpiece of a Span trade would be awful.

Of course, with Span still on the disabled list nearly two months after a concussion and taking back-to-back days off while rehabbing at Triple-A it's probably a moot point anyway.

• On a related note, can you imagine the look of pure joy on Nationals general manager Mike Rizzo's face when his phone rings and "Bill Smith" appears on the caller ID? Actually, after the Wilson Ramos-for-Matt Capps swap last year Rizzo is probably the one calling Smith.

According to ESPN.com's Buster Olney the Twins have "been looking to trade" Jose Mijares, so Monday's five-run appearance probably didn't do much for his value. Criticism of Mijares has never matched his 3.09 career ERA, but this year's performance clearly deserves to be ripped. He has a 5.47 ERA and 21 walks in 26 innings compared to 32 walks in 105 innings coming into the season. I can't imagine the Twins getting much for him, though, so I'd probably hold on.

• Local and national reporters continue to insist Michael Cuddyer won't be traded despite his being linked to just about every contending team looking for a right-handed hitter. There are also doubts about whether the Twins will look to sell anyone, although my guess is that Kevin Slowey will be moved whether they're in sell mode or buy mode going into Sunday's deadline and my hope is that they're shopping (in vain, perhaps) Capps and Delmon Young either way.

• No word yet on how many teams are interested in Cuddyer as a pitcher after Monday night's scoreless inning versus the Rangers, but he averaged 87.3 miles per hour with his fastball. By comparison, Carl Pavano has averaged 89.1 mph with his fastball this year. In addition to his mid-80s heat Cuddyer also threw an assortment of off-speed pitches, producing the following strike zone chart:

It wasn't pretty, but Cuddyer mopped up with a scoreless eighth inning after Nick Blackburn, Chuck James, Phil Dumatrait, Alex Burnett, and Mijares combined to allow 20 runs on 25 hits in the first seven frames. He's the first Twins position player to pitch since John Moses in 1990.

• Last night Joe Nathan tied Rick Aguilera for the Twins record with his 254th save and once again looked very good in the process, striking out two left-handed hitters to preserve a 9-8 win with a scoreless inning. Since coming off the disabled list in late June he's now thrown 12 innings with a 1.46 ERA and 10-to-0 strikeout-to-walk ratio while holding opponents to a .159 batting average. And his overall ERA is finally under 5.00 for the first time since April 12.

• Prior to coming off the bench to deliver the game-winning double last night, Joe Mauer was 6-for-35 (.171) as a pinch-hitter in his career.

Kyle Gibson probably would've needed to dominate the International League for the Twins to have called him up already, but instead the 2009 first-round pick had a nice first two months at Triple-A and has struggled of late. Gibson was 0-4 with a 5.17 ERA in June and then took 17 days off before coughing up 13 runs in two July starts, including a career-high five walks last time out. And now Rochester will skip his next turn in the rotation because of elbow soreness.

Gibson's ugly win-loss record and mediocre ERA overstate how much he's struggled overall this season, as a 91-to-27 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 95 innings is plenty impressive and he's done a decent job keeping the ball in the ballpark. However, there's no getting around the fact that his recent performance and health are worrisome. Through the end of May he had a 3.60 ERA and 59 strikeouts in 55 innings, but in 40 innings since he has a 6.47 ERA and 32 strikeouts.

Between the Twins' rotation depth and tendency to move prospects along slowly thoughts of Gibson being in Minnesota by June were perhaps misguided to begin with, but expecting him to be knocking on the door to the majors by now was certainly reasonable. Instead he's taken a step backward and has looked a lot more like a future mid-rotation starter than the potential second-tier ace Twins fans were dreaming on following his strong pro debut.

Jim Callis of Baseball America reports that Twins signed Vanderbilt southpaw Corey Williams for $575,000, which is double the MLB-recommend "slot" bonus for a third-round pick. Always good to see the Twins spending in the draft and August 15 is the deadline to sign other picks.

Justin Morneau's lengthy list of health issues now includes migraine headaches, which could threaten his goal of returning from neck surgery in mid-August.

Tyler Mason of FOXSportsNorth.com did an enjoyable "where are they now?" piece on Marty Cordova, although he neglected to mention the former Rookie of the Year's frequent cameos in UFC president Dana White's travel videos.

• Last and least, just a reminder/plug: I'll obviously have analysis here of any moves the Twins make, but in the meantime you can read my thoughts on all the rumors and trades throughout baseball each day at Hardball Talk on NBCSports.com. It's good stuff, I promise.

This week's content is sponsored by the Minnesota baseball apparel maker DiamondCentric, whose "Thome Is My Homey" t-shirt I wear proudly.