March 27, 2014

Top 40 Twins Prospects of 2014: 10, 9, 8, 7, 6

Also in this series: 11-15, 16-20, 21-25, 26-30, 31-35, 36-40.

10. Ryan Eades | Starter | DOB: 12/91 | Throws: Right | Draft: 2013-2

YEAR     LV      G     GS      ERA        IP       H     HR      SO     BB
2013     RK+    10      0     4.60      15.2      13      0      13     12

As a college starter with three seasons of major conference experience LSU right-hander Ryan Eades was a prototypical Twins target in the second round of June's draft and he's the eighth college pitcher they've selected with a top-50 pick since 2005. Eades missed his senior season of high school following shoulder surgery, but was injury free at LSU and led the team in starts last season.

However, fading down the stretch in 2012 and 2013 put his durability in some question and Eades struggled in his pro debut with 12 walks in 16 innings at rookie-ball. Even after a late-season fade Eades finished with a 2.81 ERA for one of the country's best college teams, but a .269 opponents' batting average and 77 strikeouts in 96 innings were underwhelming. And that modest strikeout rate is actually an improvement over 2012, when Eades struck out just 63 in 94 innings.

Combined during his final two years Eades averaged 6.6 strikeouts per nine innings, which paled in comparison to LSU's aces Kevin Gausman and Aaron Nola. Eades obviously isn't on the same level as Gausman and Nola or he wouldn't have been available at No. 43, but the point is that his raw stuff has yet to turn into strikeouts. With that said, it's good raw stuff. Baseball America rated him 37th in the draft class, noting that Eades "looks the part of a frontline starter."

9. Trevor May | Starter | DOB: 9/89 | Throws: Right | Trade: Phillies

YEAR     LV      G     GS      ERA        IP       H     HR      SO     BB
2011     A+     27     27     3.63     151.1     121      8     208     67
2012     AA     28     28     4.87     149.2     139     22     151     78
2013     AA     27     27     4.51     151.2     149     14     159     67

Acquired from the Phillies last winter in the Ben Revere trade, Trevor May repeated Double-A as a 23-year-old and showed little improvement across the board. He posted a 4.51 ERA compared to the Eastern League average of 4.01, cut his walk rate only marginally to a still-awful 4.0 per nine innings, and induced fewer ground balls than his first go-around to signal that a dip in home runs allowed may not be as encouraging as it first appears.

The good news is that the 6-foot-5 right-hander still throws very hard and still misses plenty of bats, striking out 9.4 per nine innings after whiffing 9.1 per nine innings in 2012. Those strikeout rates are good rather than great and can't compare to May's eye-popping strikeout totals in the low minors, but clearly the former fourth-round pick still has some upside. However, he's no longer considered a high-end prospect after cracking Baseball America's top-100 list for 2012.

At the time of the trade there were rumblings about May being destined for relief work long term and the lack of progress he's made, particularly with his control, have raised the volume on those concerns. He likely needs to show considerable progress at Triple-A this year or risk being shifted to the bullpen, although certainly May could eventually still make a big impact as a late-inning reliever with a mid-90s fastball.

8. Jorge Polanco | Second Base | DOB: 7/93 | Bats: Switch | Sign: Dominican

YEAR     LV      PA      AVG      OBP      SLG     HR    XBH     BB     SO
2011     RK-    193     .250     .319     .349      1     12     15     24
2012     RK+    204     .318     .388     .514      5     22     20     26
2013     A-     523     .308     .362     .452      5     47     42     59

Signed out of the Dominican Republic for $775,000 as a 16-year-old the same year the Twins added Miguel Sano and Max Kepler as big-dollar international prospects, Jorge Polanco has likely outgrown shortstop and become a good defensive second baseman with a potentially very strong bat for the position. Polanco showed a ton of improvement at rookie-ball in 2012 and then transitioned to full-season competition last year by thriving at low Single-A as a 19-year-old.

Polanco hit .308 with just 59 strikeouts in 523 plate appearances, drew a decent number of walks, and smacked 47 extra-base hits, all while being one of only nine teenagers in the entire Midwest League to play at least 100 games. As a switch-hitter he fared equally well versus righties and lefties while posting an OPS above .765 in all five months of the season and managers voted him the best defensive second baseman in the league.

He'll likely play most and perhaps all of this season as a 20-year-old at high Single-A. To put that in some context, consider that no one under 21 logged 500 plate appearances in the Florida State League last season and only three logged more than 400. Simply holding his own in the FSL would be an accomplishment and if Polanco produces in 2014 like he did in 2013 he'll be near the top of this list next spring.

7. Josmil Pinto | Catcher | DOB: 3/89 | Bats: Right | Sign: Venezuela

YEAR     LV      PA      AVG      OBP      SLG     HR    XBH     BB     SO
2011     A+     236     .262     .305     .389      5     17     12     36
2012     A+     393     .295     .361     .473     12     36     39     63
         AA      52     .298     .365     .553      2      7      4     10
2013     AA     453     .308     .411     .482     14     38     64     71
        AAA      75     .314     .333     .486      1     10      2     12
        MLB      83     .342     .398     .566      4      9      6     22

Well, we know Josmil Pinto can hit. Last season he followed up a strong 2012 between high Single-A and Double-A by hitting .308/.411/.482 with nearly as many walks as strikeouts in 107 games at Double-A, batting .314 with 10 extra-base hits in a 19-game Triple-A stint, and making his Twins debut by hitting .342/.398/.566 in 21 games as a September call-up. Add it all up and Pinto batted .314 with 19 homers, 37 doubles, and 72 walks in 147 games as a 24-year-old.

And yet there are questions about how he fits into the long-term plans because his defense behind the plate has always received mixed reviews and the Twins thought so little of his ability to catch in the majors this season that they signed Kurt Suzuki to be the starter despite his not cracking a .700 OPS since 2009. As a poor but passable catcher Pinto has enough bat to be an impact player, but as a designated hitter his bat would be nothing special unless he adds more power.

Last season MLB catchers hit .245/.310/.388 for a .688 OPS that was the second-worst from any position behind only shortstop. By comparison DHs posted a .725 OPS that was either ahead or within 10 points of every position except first base and right field. Beyond that, on the Twins his long-term path would be relatively clear at catcher, whereas there are always plenty of DH options and specifically Miguel Sano or Oswaldo Arcia may wind up as preferred choices there.

6. Eddie Rosario | Second Base | DOB: 9/91 | Bats: Left | Draft: 2010-4

YEAR     LV      PA      AVG      OBP      SLG     HR    XBH     BB     SO
2011     RK+    298     .337     .397     .670     21     39     27     60
2012     A-     429     .296     .345     .490     12     48     31     69
2013     A+     231     .329     .377     .527      6     24     17     29
         AA     313     .284     .330     .412      4     26     21     67

Eddie Rosario had a very nice 2013, beginning the year by crushing high Single-A pitching and finishing it by holding his own at Double-A as a 21-year-old, but then he began 2014 by receiving a 50-game suspension for a "drug of abuse." Under the terms of the minor league drug agreement that means he previously tested positive without getting a suspension and then continued to use the drug, which is perhaps more troubling behavior than the drug use itself.

On the field Rosario did what he's done since the Twins made him their fourth-round draft pick out of Puerto Rico in 2010, hitting for a high batting average with gap power and poor plate discipline. He also spent the entire season at second base after beginning the transition from outfielder to infielder in 2012, but there are questions about his ability to be a serviceable defender there in the majors and his offensive skill set would look somewhat marginal for a corner outfielder.

Rosario is a career .307 hitter, including at least .290 in all four seasons, but he's totaled just 22 homers in 217 games above rookie-ball while walking just 69 times compared to 165 strikeouts. That includes a 67/21 K/BB ratio in 70 games at Double-A, although in fairness he was one of only nine 21-and-under hitters in the Eastern League. Still, it doesn't look like he'll produce a ton of homers or walks, which is a profile that typically doesn't equal a big impact in an outfield corner.

June 11, 2013

Twins follow Kohl Stewart pick by loading up on pitchers and catchers

ryan eades lsu draft

By choosing high school pitcher Kohl Stewart with the fourth overall pick the Twins took a huge risk and veered away from their typical draft strategy, but they went back to normal in the second round. As a college starter with three seasons of major conference experience LSU right-hander Ryan Eades was a prototypical Twins target with the 43rd pick and in fact he's the eighth college pitcher selected by the Twins with a top-50 pick since 2005.

Eades missed his senior season of high school following shoulder surgery, but was injury free for three years at LSU and led the team in starts this season. However, fading down the stretch in both 2012 and 2013 puts his durability in some question and caused ESPN to rate Eades as the draft's No. 59 prospect despite noting that he "looked like a mid-first-rounder for the first seven weeks of the season."

Even after a late-season fade Eades finished with an 8-1 record and 2.81 ERA in 16 starts for one of the best teams in the country, but a .269 opponents' batting average and just 77 strikeouts in 96 innings are underwhelming. And that modest strikeout rate is actually an improvement over last season, when Eades managed just 63 strikeouts in 94 innings while allowing opponents to hit .296. Combined during his final two years Eades averaged 6.6 strikeouts per nine innings.

Eades' bat-missing ability paled in comparison to LSU's aces. Last year it was Kevin Gausman, who was drafted fourth overall by the Orioles, and averaged 9.8 strikeouts per nine innings. This year it was Aaron Nola, who projects as a potential top-10 pick in 2014, and got 9.2 strikeouts per nine innings. Eades obviously isn't on the same level as Gausman and Nola or he wouldn't have been available at No. 43, but the point is that his raw stuff has yet to turn into strikeouts.

With that said, it's good raw stuff. Baseball America rated him 37th in the class, noting that Eades "looks the part of a frontline starter" with "an athletic 6-foot-3, 198-pound frame" and fastball that reaches the mid-90s. According to BA he's "honed his breaking ball into a power curveball" and also works with a two-seam fastball and a changeup, the latter of which may prove to be the key to Eades developing into a successful big-league starter.

In the third round the Twins selected University of Mississippi catcher Stuart Turner, who has a reputation for being a good defender with an iffy bat despite hitting .374/.444/.518 in 62 games this season. Turner played just one season against top-flight competition, transferring to Ole Miss from a junior college, and Baseball America notes that "scouts don't like his swing and question his ability to sting the ball consistently."

There are no such questions behind the plate, as BA calls Turner the best defensive catcher in the class who "combines strength at 6-foot-2, 220 pounds with flexibility, agile feet, and excellent arm strength." ESPN offers similar praise, calling Turner the draft's "best catch-and-throw guy" with "outstanding hands and a plus arm." All of which suggests that he'd project as a backup if the scouts are right to doubt his bat and a good all-around starter if the numbers prove them wrong.

In the fourth round the Twins took another high school pitcher in California left-hander Stephen Gonsalves, who actually rated three spots higher than Turner on BA's list. Their scouting report says he "entered the spring as a potential first-round pick, but his stock has fallen as scouts have been disappointed with his inconsistent velocity and command." When he's going well Gonsalves throws in the low-90s and at 6-foot-5 "is intriguing because of his body and projection."

And he's tiny compared to fifth-round pick Aaron Slegers, a 6-foot-10 right-hander who starred for Indiana after barely pitching before this season due to injuries. Slegers walked just 15 batters in 16 starts and had a 2.16 ERA, but also managed just 54 strikeouts in 97 innings. BA notes that he's capable of reaching the mid-90s, but "got tired as he dealt with a regular workload for the first time" and lacks a consistently effective breaking ball.

In the eighth round the Twins took Slegers' teammate, third baseman Dustin DeMuth, who led Indiana with a .389 batting average but didn't draw many walks or hit for much power. According to BA scouts aren't sure if he'll stick at third base defensively and despite being 6-foot-3 his swing isn't really conducive to power development, but "he makes consistent contact ... with plus speed and arm strength."

Florida high school catcher Brian Navarreto was the sixth-round pick and the Twins took another catcher, New Mexico senior Mitchell Garver, in the ninth round. Based on skills alone Navarreto may have gone 2-3 rounds higher, but his involvement in an ugly on-field brawl likely dropped his stock. Garver had good numbers in a hitter-friendly environment and he's a typical "senior sign" who's already agreed to a below-slot deal that saves the Twins money to use on other picks.

In all the Twins had 10 of the first 300 picks in the draft and used all but one of them on pitchers or catchers, with DeMuth the only exception. Loading up on pitching certainly isn't surprising, but taking catchers in the third, sixth, and ninth rounds stands out as an unexpected strategy. Overall they went for long-term upside in Stewart and Gonsalves, did their standard thing with a bunch of college right-handers, and stocked up on backstops.

It'll be hard for the 2013 draft to look like a good one for the Twins unless Stewart pans out, but in general their approach seems fairly sound and based on pre-draft rankings from BA, ESPN, and MLB.com they didn't really step too far out on a limb with any selections. Last year it was tough not to love the Twins' draft haul because of Buxton at No. 2 and a bunch of extra early picks as compensation for losing free agents, but this year's group has a lot to like too.

For much more on the Twins' draft picks, check out this week's "Gleeman and The Geek" episode.


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