September 21, 2002


A lot is being made of Alfonso Soriano possibly joining Alex Rodriguez, Jose Canseco and Barry Bonds in the 40-40 club (he has 41 SBs and 39 HRs right now) but my Uncle just pointed out to me that Vladimir Guerrero has a pretty good shot at joining the club this year as well.

Vlad is currently sitting at 39 SBs and 37 HRs.

He also had 37 steals and 34 homers last year.

But, unlike Soriano, Guerrero's base stealing isn't really much good to the Expos.

He has been caught 18 times to go along with those 39 steals, which is a SB% of only 68%.

Soriano on the other hand is stealing at a 78% clip.

The break even point for stealing bases (where it doesn't help or hurt a team) is somewhere around 72-75% (I think) so Guerrero is actually hurting his team slightly.

It is still pretty cool though, at least until the club gets really big or someone goes 50-50 or 60-60.

Coincidentally (or maybe not so coincidentally) Guerrero and Soriano are both from the Dominican Republic.

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