July 23, 2006
Notes From Cleveland
Some notes I typed up while watching the Twins take two out of three from the Indians ...
Neshek's willingness to attack major-league hitters and pound the strike zone is impressive, and missing a ton of bats while doing so is what makes him a potential stud. Neshek threw 69 of his first 101 big-league pitches for strikes and walked just two of the 24 batters he faced. Best of all, he racked up nine strikeouts, all swinging.
Neshek doesn't have mid-90s velocity on his fastball, but he's far from a soft-tosser. The combination of a fastball at 89-92 miles per hour and a ridiculous delivery allows him to blow hitters away just like throwing 95 MPH would. Neshek doesn't paint the corners or rely on favorable strike-three calls, he simply challenges hitters to actually hit strikes and watches as they fail.
Gardenhire campaigned for Terry Ryan to call Neshek up and immediately trusted him in tight spots. Instead of sending Francisco Liriano out for the sixth inning with 95 pitches yesterday, Gardenhire turned to Neshek for a multi-inning appearance, showing confidence in him (and Dennys Reyes) to bridge the gap between Liriano and the near-automatic win that begins when Juan Rincon enters the game in the eighth inning.
SP Johan Santana 3.00 .222
SP Fran Liriano 1.93 .196
SP Brad Radke 4.83 .318
CL Joe Nathan 1.54 .181
SU Juan Rincon 2.03 .229
LH Dennys Reyes 1.38 .211
RH Pat Neshek 0.00 .059
That's scary, especially considering Brad Radke has a 2.54 ERA over his last 10 starts. Crain has also pitched well over the past two months, but he'd barely be needed for more than mop-up duties if Neshek avoids a blowup. That's a staff built for the playoffs, with two aces, a third starter who's much better than any other options, a dominant setup-closer combination, and middle men to match up against lefties and righties.
As discussed in this space last week, Justin Morneau should be hitting cleanup. Batting Mauer and Morneau back-to-back would leave the Twins susceptible to a left-handed reliever coming in, but both Mauer and Morneau are doing well against southpaws this year. As things stand now, they're just as susceptible to Mauer being pitched around to have a righty face Cuddyer, and Cuddyer has been far less successful against righties.
Cuddyer has generally come through in key spots, including a Jhonny Peralta-aided infield single after Mauer's intentional walk yesterday. However, he'd have those same opportunities batting fifth, and moving Morneau up one spot would actually leave the bat in Mauer's hands a little more often. At the end of the season, when various fans and members of the media lightly criticize Mauer for driving in fewer than 100 runs, just remember yesterday's game.
It remains to be seen if the adjustments are permanent (or if they actually work), but at the very least it shows that someone (likely either Cuddyer or hitting coach Joe Vavra) is paying attention. Cuddyer was hitting everyone well early this season and has continued to bash lefties, but recently he's struggled against righties. That it was recognized, through stats or observation, is encouraging.
AB AVG OBP SLG 2B HR RBI BB SO
Before 181 .182 .209 .215 6 0 15 5 30
After 29 .448 .500 .862 3 3 10 2 2
I'm not one to place much value in what happens over the course of 29 at-bats, but those are some of the most amazing stats I've seen all year. Even ignoring the actual numbers, White has clearly taken more healthy, bad-intentioned swings at pitches over the plate during the past two weeks than he did in his first 190 plate appearances combined.
I have no idea how long "Good Rondell" will stick around or if "Bad Rondell" still lurks somewhere, but for now at least it's obvious that this isn't a case of a few grounders finding holes or some bloopers avoiding gloves. White is hitting balls hard, and they're finding gaps and flying over fences. If Torii Hunter comes back and Jason Kubel's knee lets up, there won't be an easy out in the entire lineup.
YEAR AVG YEAR OBP
JOE MAUER 2006 .381 Mickey Cochrane 1933 .459
Mike Piazza 1997 .362 JOE MAUER 2006 .457
Mickey Cochrane 1930 .357 Mickey Cochrane 1935 .452
Spud Davis 1933 .349 Mike Piazza 1997 .431
Mickey Cochrane 1931 .349 Wally Schang 1921 .428
Ernie Lombardi 1938 .342 Mickey Cochrane 1934 .428
Gabby Hartnett 1930 .339 Dick Dietz 1970 .426
Mickey Cochrane 1927 .338 Mickey Cochrane 1930 .424
Mike Piazza 1996 .336 Mickey Cochrane 1931 .423
Deacon McGuire 1895 .336 Mike Piazza 1996 .422
I first looked at how Mauer's season was stacking up against the all-time great years from catchers back in early June, at which point he was in the middle of a historic run that included getting on base 52 times in 20 games. It's six weeks later and his batting average has fallen just seven points, while his on-base percentage has actually gone up (thanks in part to those intentional walks).
Mauer remains safely ahead of Mike Piazza's 1997 season for the highest batting average ever by a catcher, and he's one good game away from overtaking Mickey Cochrane's 1933 season for the top on-base percentage. Assuming Mauer gets a similar amount of playing time for the remainder of the year, he'll have to hit right around .330 to stay ahead of Piazza. As of right now, he's a career .326 hitter.
YEAR OPS YEAR RC
Mike Piazza 1997 1.070 Mike Piazza 1997 149
Gabby Hartnett 1930 1.034 Bill Dickey 1937 132
Mike Piazza 2000 1.012 Gabby Hartnett 1930 128
Roy Campanella 1953 1.006 Roy Campanella 1953 127
Chris Hoiles 1993 1.001 JOE MAUER 2006 124
Rudy York 1938 .995 Mike Piazza 1996 123
JOE MAUER 2006 .991 Yogi Berra 1950 123
Bill Dickey 1937 .987 Mike Piazza 1998 122
Mike Piazza 1996 .985 Johnny Bench 1970 120
Roy Campanella 1951 .983 Mickey Cochrane 1932 118
Mauer is on track for a modest 12 homers, yet ranks seventh all-time among catchers with a .991 OPS and is on pace for 42 doubles that would tie him for second all time behind only Ivan Rodriguez's 47 two-baggers in 1996. In terms of overall offensive production (as shown above in the form of Runs Created), only Piazza's 1997 season is significantly ahead of Mauer's pace.
With that said, we'll have a much better grasp of the Twins' playoff chances by the time the Rangers come to town Monday. Here's what the Wild Card standings look like before Radke takes the mound against Javier Vazquez tonight:
W L WIN% GB
Chicago 59 38 .608 ---
New York 56 40 .583 2.5
Minnesota 56 41 .577 3.0
Toronto 55 43 .561 4.5
Between last season and the Tony Batista era, I almost forgot how much fun this is.