November 23, 2011

“Gleeman and The Geek” #16: Nathan and Doumit

This week's episode of "Gleeman and The Geek" was recorded at Wild Boar in Hopkins and my beer of choice was Summit Winter Ale. Topics included Joe Nathan's departure, Ryan Doumit's arrival, karaoke choices, Glen Perkins' role, Matt Capps' possible return, other closer options, the impact of MLB's new collective bargaining agreement, Richard Lewis, beer snobbery, and what not to say while cutting hair.

Gleeman and The Geek: Episode 16

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  1. Hey Aaron, if you and the Bonnes’ man ever get into it about closers again on one of the podcasts. I think I have a great analogy for you, that is if you play Fantasy football 😉 – it is That a “closer” role should be valued similarly to a kicker in fantasy football and you should never “pay” to bring one in. (espeially too early, kickers always go in the last draft round)

    I’m with you completely on the closer situation I’d much rather have them bring in somebody solid in the middle innings or even the 8th inning, Michael Wuertz, Todd Coffey the Hawk.. or a small trade and then see who can close between whoever that guy is and Perkins and maybe a suprise candidate from within like a Gutierrez.

    Great #14- 16 podcast(s) btw.

    Comment by steve hoffman (SHS) — November 23, 2011 @ 4:40 am

  2. Just read that the Twins are looking to acquire an experienced closer because Terry Ryan does not feel Perkins has the experience to handle the 9th innings. So, you know, here we go again.

    Comment by Ted — November 23, 2011 @ 12:32 pm

  3. Aaron and anyone else. Want to run something by you…

    Let’s say under the new CBA, I have the #1 pick. But it’s not a good year to have the #1 pick (no Strasburg or Harper to be had). I have a pretty big bonus pool because I have the #1 pick. Could I draft some kid who I know has a college football scholarship waiting for him, offer him $2M instead of the normal $7-8M or so, let him reject it, then be able to spend all that bonus pool money going over slot on guys I draft later on? And would I then get the #2 overall pick next year since my #1 overall pick didn’t sign? And if I got the #2 pick next year to go along with my other picks, would my bonus pool increase to compensate for having potentially two top-10 picks? Seems like a good way to game the system, but I’m guessing I’m missing something.

    Comment by hansob — November 23, 2011 @ 2:26 pm

  4. Ted, I saw that also. Made me cry a little….not that I want Perkins as the closer, because then he’ll pitch in many meaningless situations, but because of the attitude in general toward “loving veterans with experience”…..

    Comment by mike wants wins — November 23, 2011 @ 2:36 pm

  5. quick note. Can barely hear Bonnes at times.

    Comment by hansob — November 23, 2011 @ 3:21 pm

  6. Hansoub – yes, that’s what people are already talking about doing. Esp. if you draft a college guy in the first year and low-ball him. He’s got less leverage in the first place, so he might even TAKE it, letting you spread the savings around on overslot.

    Aaron – Everybody keeps saying the bordlerline strike studies aren’t adjusted per umpire. I am almost POSITIVE one of the earlier studies in the last year or so did normalize per umpire, so it would be weird if this latest study didn’t. But maybe it didn’t, since people keep critiquing it on those lines.

    Re: Doumit. He has a terrible hitch in his release that limits his ability to use what is, in fact, a strong arm. And he’s brutal, otherwise. As a $3 million one-way DH (his bat is below average from the right side) it’s a great acquisition. They should still shop around for a better upgrade at backup catcher. He’s gotten hurt in RF before, BTW. And he was abominable in a stint at 1B in interleague in 2010.

    Comment by toby — November 23, 2011 @ 4:18 pm

  7. Still listening: I’ve watched pretty much every Pirates game for two seasons and a healthy chunk of the ’09 season as well. Doumit was absolutely disproportionately rested v. LHP, but by no means strictly platooned. This was pretty openly acknowledged (i.e. “Doumit’s gonna rest today; they’ve got a left-hander out there and BACKUP CATCHER X needs to play regularly to stay fresh”). My sense is that his true talent v. LHP is easily below league average (once you roll in the power numbers). And FW little IW I have regularly called for Cuddyer to be benched v. RHP. Gardenhire has never understood how many wins can be gained by platooning.

    Comment by toby — November 23, 2011 @ 4:27 pm

  8. Just checked: both the Letson study on BTBS and the Marchi studies normalized by Umpire strike rates. Fast found a .86 correlation between his study and Marchi’s. I don’t get why everybody loves the Fast study and the Letson/Marchi studies elicited comparatively little response across the interweb.

    Comment by toby — November 23, 2011 @ 4:33 pm

  9. Ryan Doumit hit .315 (not .350) in 54 AB vs. LHP in 2011. Career vs. LHP: 500 AB .262 .329 .388 .717
    Career vs. RHP: 1467AB .275 .336 .461 .797

    Gardenhire likely does not give him his days off against LHP, though he should. But, it should not matter.

    Comment by David — November 28, 2011 @ 12:03 pm

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