June 25, 2012

“Gleeman and The Geek” #47: Full Nelson

This week's episode of Gleeman and The Geek was minus The Geek, as Nick Nelson and Joe Nelson filled in for a vacationing John Bonnes as my guest co-hosts and topics included Matt Capps' injury and fill-in closers, Trevor Plouffe's case for the All-Star game, what to do with Francisco Liriano, buyers vs. sellers, Brian Duensing's move back to the rotation, more Josh Willingham heroics, Byron Buxton's debut, and why Bonnes shouldn't bother coming back.

Gleeman and The Geek: Episode 47

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  1. Re: Draft budget and the Twins using their savings on a later pick… I could be wrong but I remember reading these details:

    Draft bonus pool is the sum of the “slot” values of all picks in the first 10 rounds. It also applies only to the first 10 rounds of the draft. Rounds 11+ have a maximum bonus of $100k each, which doesn’t count toward the spending cap. So a team could theoretically just sign every 11+ rounder for $100k regardless of their budget status for the first 10 rounds.

    Comment by JS — June 25, 2012 @ 10:37 am

  2. Down the stretch, I hope Liriano pitches well enough to make palatable the one year, $12.5M qualifying offer necessary to secure a pick when he signs elsewhere.

    Comment by Jeff S — June 25, 2012 @ 2:50 pm

  3. Aaron–
    I disagree with you about Liriano. I’m kind of surprised that you are so disparaging of the idea of extending him, and that you’d view 3/24 good but 3/30 bad. Here is something I just posted on TwinkieTown…see if I convince you:

    Liriano’s market value
    On Fangraphs, Liriano has put up 15.1 WAR in basically 6 seasons. That’s about 2.5 WAR per season. Assume, then, that he is a 2.5 WAR player. If you assume the standard .5 WAR decline per season, you’d pay him for 2.5, 2, and 1.5 WAR, or 6WAR. At $5mm/ WAR, that’s 3/30.

    Of course, if you peg him at 2WAR, given his recent struggles, pay him 2, 1.5, and 1, for 4.5 WAR, or 3/22.5, or maybe 3/24.

    If you are like me, you see Liriano putting up well more than 6 WAR total in the next 3 years…even given his usual frustrating stretches of inconsistency, just like he has done over the past six years, and you view an extension as an opportunity to get a good deal.

    If you feel 3/24 is worth it, it seems silly to not go 3/30….basically quibbling over the price of 1 win across three years. As others have said, who else are the Twins going to find a pitcher with 6-win potential (and track record…two years ago)?

    Comment by AM. — June 26, 2012 @ 7:40 pm

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