March 11, 2013

Top 40 Twins Prospects of 2013: System Overview

Also in this series: 1-5, 6-10, 11-15, 16-20, 21-25, 26-30, 31-35, 36-40.

My annual series ranking and profiling the Twins' top prospects concluded last week, so here's the complete list of 40 players along with links to each individual write-up and an overview of the farm system as a whole:

 1. Miguel Sano, 3B                21. Michael Tonkin, RP
 2. Byron Buxton, CF               22. Amaurys Minier, SS
 3. Oswaldo Arcia, RF              23. Zack Jones, RP
 4. Aaron Hicks, CF                24. Daniel Santana, SS
 5. Alex Meyer, SP                 25. Nate Roberts, LF
 6. Kyle Gibson, SP                26. Adam Walker, RF
 7. Eddie Rosario, 2B              27. Corey Williams, RP
 8. Trevor May, SP                 28. Tyler Duffey, RP
 9. J.O. Berrios, SP               29. B.J. Hermsen, SP
10. Joe Benson, CF                 30. Kennys Vargas, 1B
11. Max Kepler, CF                 31. Madison Boer, SP
12. Luke Bard, RP                  32. Tyler Robertson, RP
13. Travis Harrison, 3B            33. Adrian Salcedo, SP
14. Mason Melotakis, RP            34. Jason Wheeler, SP
15. Jorge Polanco, SS              35. Pedro Hernandez, SP
16. J.T. Chargois, RP              36. Alex Wimmers, SP
17. Niko Goodrum, SS               37. Josmil Pinto, C
18. Hudson Boyd, SP                38. Deolis Guerra, RP
19. Levi Michael, 2B               39. Eduardo Escobar, SS
20. Chris Herrmann, C              40. Ryan Pressly, RP

In one year the Twins' farm system improved from mediocre to elite, adding high-end prospects via the draft (Byron Buxton, J.O. Berrios) and trades (Alex Meyer, Trevor May) while top-10 holdovers (Miguel Sano, Oswaldo Arcia, Aaron Hicks, Eddie Rosario) further improved their stock. To refill the talent pool it took losing 99 games and two prominent free agents in 2011 and trading away two good center fielders this offseason, but the water is plenty deep now.

In fact, this is the best collection of prospects the Twins have had in the decade I've been writing about them. And they've had plenty of top-drawer prospects during that time, from Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, Jason Kubel, and Michael Cuddyer among hitters to Francisco Liriano and Matt Garza among pitchers. However, the depth of this current group is unmatched with a pair of consensus top-25 prospects and as many as seven names regularly appearing in top-100 lists.

No other team boasts a clearly superior prospect duo than Sano and Buxton, in whom the Twins invested a combined $9.15 million and their first top-10 draft pick since selecting Mauer first overall in 2001. They're both still teenagers, which means they're several years from potentially even entering the Twins' plans and far from sure things to develop into superstars, but in terms of raw upside there aren't a dozen better prospects in baseball.

Sano and Buxton would each be the No. 1 prospect for most of the other 29 teams, both Arcia and Hicks would hold the top spot in quite a few organizations, and Meyer, Rosario, and Kyle Gibson would probably garner top billing in a few farm systems. There's also improved depth behind those front-line guys thanks to the Twins having six of the top-100 picks in June's draft and high-upside teenagers Max Kepler and Jorge Polanco taking big steps forward in the low minors.

All of which is the good news. The bad news is that while the overall talent level has skyrocketed in the past 12 months only a handful of the Twins' top 20 prospects are close to MLB-ready. Hicks and Gibson figure to play substantial roles this season and Arcia, May, and Joe Benson could as well, but none of Sano, Buxton, Meyer, Rosario, Berrios, Kepler, Polanco, Luke Bard, Travis Harrison, Mason Melotakis, and J.T. Chargois have played above Single-A yet.

Help is definitely on the way and some of it will begin arriving this season and next season, but the full scope of the farm system's dramatic improvement probably won't begin showing itself in Minnesota until 2015 or 2016. And there are plenty of stumbling blocks for those many low-minors prospects to avoid between now and then, although it's also worth noting that in three months the Twins will be adding the No. 4 overall pick in the draft to their prospect stockpile.

Liam Hendriks, Brian Dozier, Chris Parmelee, and Scott Diamond all graduated from last year's top-40 list by exhausting their prospect status with regular action in the majors, but only Diamond can be considered an established major leaguer at this point. Hendriks just turned 24 and would rank in the 8-12 range if he retained prospect status, so he (and to lesser extents Parmelee and Dozier) shouldn't be forgotten as part of the Twins' collection of young talent.

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  1. Nice article, Aaron. For the first time in a few years, I am genuinely optimistic about the Twins. Heck, even Reusse at the StarTrib has gotten off his normally pessimistic throne. While I never cared much for the job that Bill Smith did as GM, more than a few of his international signings and draft-day picks are now looking good.

    Finally, what’s the word on Colabello? Does he have a future in MLB, after knocking around independent ball for several years? I hear he can play some defense and hits well.

    Comment by jfs — March 10, 2013 @ 3:50 pm

  2. “No other team has a stronger prospect duo than Sano and Buxton”.

    Cardinals with Tavares and MIller?

    Comment by Chris Kash — March 10, 2013 @ 7:51 pm

  3. Yeah, what about Colabello!

    Comment by Eric — March 10, 2013 @ 10:22 pm

  4. With Meyer’s college experience and age, I don’t think we should discount 2014, or even a September callup this year, for that matter. The Twins haven’t been shy of moving college pitchers quickly through the system. A 2014 rotation of Diamond, Worley, Gibson, Meyer and one of Hendricks, De Vries and May could be pretty good. At least more fun to watch then I expect Pelfrey, Correa and Blackburn to be.

    Comment by SoCalTwinsfan — March 10, 2013 @ 11:21 pm

  5. Chris got it spot on–that was my first thought. And they’re MLB ready.

    Wish they’d just trade Willingham though. It seems silly to only partially tear down. He’s signed to such a reasonable deal that they could probably get a pretty decent return.

    Comment by Ben — March 11, 2013 @ 1:55 pm

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