November 12, 2013

Concussion forces Joe Mauer to switch from catcher to first base

joe mauer first base

Since the moment Joe Mauer suffered a concussion from a foul tip to the mask on August 19 there was a very real possibility that his days behind the plate were numbered. He attempted to return to the Twins' lineup down the stretch only to experience dizziness, sensitivity to light, irritability, and other post-concussion symptoms and missed the final 40 games. And now Mauer and the Twins have decided a permanent position switch is necessary.

It's a damn shame, because Mauer has been the best catcher in baseball for the past decade, hitting .323/.405/.468 in 1,178 games while making six All-Star teams and winning three batting titles, three Gold Glove awards, five Silver Slugger awards, and one MVP. Among all the catchers in MLB history through age 30 he ranks sixth in Wins Above Replacement, behind only Johnny Bench, Gary Carter, Ivan Rodriguez, Joe Torre, and Ted Simmons.

This year Mauer batted .324/.404/.476 with 46 extra-base hits and 61 walks in 113 games before the concussion, basically duplicating his career numbers while leading all MLB catchers in batting average, on-base percentage, and OPS. He also threw out a league-leading 43 percent of stolen base attempts. Here's how Mauer's career numbers look among all active catchers with at least 1,000 plate appearances:

JOE MAUER         .323     JOE MAUER         .405     Buster Posey      .486
Buster Posey      .308     Buster Posey      .377     Brian McCann      .473
Yadier Molina     .284     Carlos Santana    .367     JOE MAUER         .468
A.J. Pierzynski   .283     John Jaso         .364     Carlos Santana    .446
Jonathan Lucroy   .279     Ryan Hanigan      .359     David Ross        .441

Mauer has the best batting average by 15 points over Buster Posey and at least 39 points over everyone else. Mauer has the best on-base percentage by 28 points over Posey and at least 38 points over everyone else. And he ranks third in slugging percentage behind Posey and Brian McCann. However, if you take his 2012-2013 numbers and make the same comparison to first basemen (and designated hitters) Mauer slides down the rankings a bit:

JOE MAUER         .321     Joey Votto        .450     David Ortiz       .582
Joey Votto        .317     JOE MAUER         .410     Chris Davis       .571
David Ortiz       .312     David Ortiz       .403     Edwin Encarnacion .546
Allen Craig       .311     Prince Fielder    .387     Paul Goldschmidt  .523
Billy Butler      .301     Paul Goldschmidt  .382     Joey Votto        .520
                                                      JOE MAUER         .460

If you compare Mauer to first basemen he dips behind Joey Votto as the king of OBP and falls all the way to 20th in slugging percentage. However, his overall production (as measured by adjusted OPS+) would've ranked sixth among all first basemen in 2012-2013 behind Votto, David Ortiz, Edwin Encarnacion, Chris Davis, and Paul Goldschmidt. Mauer will clearly be a top-ten first baseman and could easily move into the top five without the physical demands of catching.

With that said, it will be very hard for Mauer to provide more all-around value at first base than he did at catcher because he's shifting from one end of the defensive spectrum to the other. As a catcher Mauer was arguably the best at his position and no worse than the top three, producing 20-25 percent more offense than an average player. As a first baseman he'll likely have zero claim to being the best at his position and produce 10-15 percent more offense than an average player.

Unfortunately a brain injury makes any debate about all-around value sort of silly. Mauer is 30 years old with five years remaining on his contract and the Twins need him healthy and in the lineup. Moving to first base certainly won't make him immune to injuries, but it will make him less likely to get hurt and specifically less likely to rejoin the incredibly long list of catchers to spend time on the disabled list for a concussion in recent years. Catching is a rough, rough gig.

Under normal circumstances it might make sense to say that Mauer should stay at catcher unless or until the injury reoccurs, at which point a position switch could be made for good. However, with a brain injury that could mean it's too late, both to save Mauer's value as a baseball player and to avoid significant long-term health problems off the field. This isn't an elbow or a knee we're talking about and too often that distinction seems to be overlooked.

In the short term this may not even have a particularly big impact on the Twins, in part because their in-house options at first base (Chris Parmelee, Chris Colabello) aren't exactly can't-miss prospects and in part because Josmil Pinto's emergence gives them a 25-year-old potential replacement at catcher with upside. He'll need to show that his defense is passable enough to play regularly behind the plate, but the Twins were going to find a spot for Pinto's bat somewhere.

In the long term switching Mauer from catcher to first base removes a spot in the lineup for the Twins to stash a big bat with a poor glove--which is always part of the dynamic that tends to make good-hitting catchers underrated in general--but that may not become a full-fledged logjam for a couple more seasons and by that point Mauer would have been old enough that moving away from catcher may have been needed regardless of injuries.

Mauer moving to third base could have represented a potential middle ground positionally, but with Miguel Sano nearly MLB-ready and the Twins seemingly convinced he'll stick at third base for at least a little while it wasn't really much of an option. It's disappointing to see Mauer forced to move away from a position he dominated for a decade, especially when his performance hadn't declined at all, but brain injuries aren't something you can really negotiate around.

If he can stay healthier and up his production even a little bit by getting out from behind the plate and Pinto can turn himself into a reasonably capable defender in addition to being an asset with the bat the Mauer position switch might not even be a huge negative. Those are some pretty large ifs, of course, but I'll take my chances on them rather than holding my breath every time Mauer took a foul tip off the mask or stood tall for a plate collision. It's sad, but it's the right move.

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  1. Stinkin brain injuries. I’m wondering if Mauer doesn’t bulk up a little bit with the position switch? He doesn’t need to remain as flexible as he did, and the extra weight wouldn’t affect his knees in the way that crouching behind the plate for 130 games otherwise would have. Another 10-15 pounds of muscle in the off season could turn him into a bruiser…
    But then again, it’s Joe. We’ve been waiting for the power for years. I’m just thinking that the fact that he’ll be able to play closer to 162 games now instead of needing off days (not that he took off as many as people seem to think) should be a boost to his value as well.
    Regardless, it’ll be a downgrade of Mauer’s value. He’s been worth every bit of his contract so far. I’d be interested to see where his numbers from last season would make him worth as a 1B.

    Comment by D-Luxxx — November 12, 2013 @ 7:50 am

  2. Aaron, I totally agree with you that a position change for Joe had to be done. However, you are selling him short when you compare him to designated hitters. Designated hitters add no defensive value and some of them would be a huge defensive downgrade. I believe that Joe will be an excellent first basemen and he should be compared to other players who will play the position. When you remove Ortiz, Butler etc. Joe compares much better.

    Comment by David Epema — November 12, 2013 @ 8:16 am

  3. I’m bummed about this, although it’s likely the right thing to do.
    What’s this do to his HoF potential? IMO, he’s got the numbers already as a catcher, he just needed a few more years of solid stat padding. Now, moving to first? He’ll need slightly better stats (than he would have needed as a catcher), for a longer period of time, imo.

    Comment by BR — November 12, 2013 @ 11:21 am

  4. You do not really think Mauer–Pinto is an upgrade over Mauer—Mourneau?? If that is really what they do, another step back(especially defensively).

    Comment by Mark Zwolenski — November 12, 2013 @ 12:31 pm

  5. I’m glad you included the Twins dearth of good-hitting, no glove players to potentially stash at 1st in your analysis. I think that often gets overlooked in the pure “value” debate. If the team doesn’t have an acquirable replacement, then moving the best hitter around the diamond really doesn’t matter in a practical sense. You can argue that theoretically they *could have* gone after some free agent or another, but then you also have to do cost analysis (because the guys who represent a clear upgrade over Josmil Pinto in the lineup are often not all that easily acquirable).

    My preference would have been to have begun the process of moving him to 3rd 4 or 5 years ago, but an immediate full time shift is not a good option, especially while recovering from a brain injury. I think for where they are now, planning for Mauer to play out his contract at 1st, and devoting the rest of his training toward his health and perhaps increasing power some, is the best practical move.

    Comment by Paul Koopman — November 12, 2013 @ 1:41 pm

  6. Can we renegotiate his salary now as a first baseman? That $20 mm+ may have been ok as a top flight catcher when he signed the contract, but now…

    Comment by John — November 12, 2013 @ 4:49 pm

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