February 21, 2013

Top 40 Twins Prospects of 2013: 20, 19, 18, 17, 16

Also in this series: 1-5, 6-10, 11-15, 21-25, 26-30, 31-35, 36-40.

20. Chris Herrmann | Catcher | DOB: 10/87 | Bats: Left | Draft: 2009-6

YEAR     LV      PA      AVG      OBP      SLG     HR    XBH     BB     SO
2010     A+     408     .219     .310     .301      2     22     41     74
2011     A+     106     .310     .404     .425      1      7     15      6
         AA     406     .258     .380     .392      7     26     64     68
2012     AA     558     .276     .350     .392     10     36     58     89

Chris Herrmann arrived in the majors ahead of schedule because the Twins briefly needed some emergency catching help in September, getting the call-up after repeating Double-A. His numbers for New Britain were nearly identical to 2011, as Herrmann showed his usual good plate discipline and strike zone control with minimal power. His production was nothing special, particularly for a 24-year-old in his second go-around at the level, but he's an intriguing player.

Herrmann was an outfielder at the University of Miami before moving to catcher at high Single-A in 2010 and last season he played 83 games at catcher compared to 43 games between left field and designated hitter. His defense behind the plate gets mixed reviews, but Herrmann threw out 44 percent of steal attempts last year and 38 percent in 2011. As an outfielder his bat is below par, but as a catcher/outfielder he'd have a whole lot more use.

Another issue for Herrmann is that he's a left-handed hitter hoping to become the third catcher behind a left-handed hitter in Joe Mauer and a switch-hitter who swings better from the left side in Ryan Doumit. That makes him less than an ideal fit, although his ability to play elsewhere is handy and it's not as if Drew Butera's offensive ineptitude coming from the right side helps anyway. Herrmann is likely Triple-A bound this year, but he's shooting for Butera's job.

19. Levi Michael | Second Base | DOB: 2/91 | Bats: Switch | Draft: 2011-1

YEAR     LV      PA      AVG      OBP      SLG     HR    XBH     BB     SO
2012     A+     512     .246     .339     .311      2     20     56     82

Levi Michael was supposed to be one of the more MLB-ready position players available in the 2011 draft after three years in the University of North Carolina lineup and the Twins jumped him directly to high Single-A for his pro debut, but the 30th overall pick struggled. His good patience and strike zone control from college were evident, but Michael hit just .246 with two homers, failed to show even gap power, and attempted only six steals in 117 games.

He was much better in the second half than the first half, but even that amounted to a modest .272 batting average with zero homers and a .328 slugging percentage in 63 post-break games. Also worrisome is that Michael played more second base (65 games) than shortstop (53 games) for Fort Myers, which jibes with the pre-draft questions about his ability to be a quality shortstop in the majors.

It's too early to write off Michael as a bust, but it's unfortunate that the Twins finally went away from their usual draft strategy to take a college middle infielder in the first round for the first time since 1994 only to see him stumble out of the gates. He's still just 22 years old and has the solid plate discipline as a good foundation, but if he's not going to stick at shortstop Michael really needs to show that he's capable of doing more than drawing walks.

18. Hudson Boyd | Starter | DOB: 10/92 | Throws: Right | Draft: 2011-1

YEAR     LV      G     GS      ERA        IP       H     HR      SO     BB
2012     RK+    13     13     2.95      58.0      63      7      36     23

Touted as a big, hard-throwing right-hander with potentially dominant raw stuff when the Twins made him their supplemental first-round pick in the 2011 draft, Hudson Boyd was anything but dominant in his pro debut. He posted a nice-looking 2.95 ERA in 58 innings for rookie-level Elizabethton, but allowed 5.12 total runs per nine innings and Boyd was forced to rely on the shoddy defense behind him because he managed just 5.6 strikeouts per nine innings.

He also struggled with his control, walking 3.6 per nine innings, and allowed opponents to hit .270 with seven homers in 263 plate appearances in a league where batters collectively hit .254 with a .382 slugging percentage. In fairness to Boyd plenty of high school pitchers struggle in their first taste of the minors and the Twins had him skip the lower level of rookie-ball to face Appalachian League hitters at age 19.

Still, for a 55th overall pick who was supposed to be all about overpowering hitters it wasn't a promising debut and did nothing to quiet pre-draft questions about whether Boyd will eventually wind up in the bullpen. It's worth noting that Boyd is several years younger than the various hard-throwing college relievers the Twins drafted in June and are now trying to convert into starters, so there's no rush to find out yet.

17. Niko Goodrum | Shortstop | DOB: 2/92 | Bats: Switch | Draft: 2010-2

YEAR     LV      PA      AVG      OBP      SLG     HR    XBH     BB     SO
2010     RK-    128     .161     .219     .195      0      4      9     34
2011     RK+    230     .275     .352     .382      2     15     21     56
2012     RK+    269     .242     .349     .419      4     24     38     56

Niko Goodrum had a brutal debut in 2010, but the second-round pick bounced back with a nice 2011 at rookie-level Elizabethton and then built on that further while repeating the level last year. His batting average fell from .275 to .242, but Goodrum upped his power by 65 percent, drew 54 percent more walks, and cut his strikeouts by 14 percent. His overall production as a pro isn't pretty, but the individual skills are more promising.

Goodrum was drafted for his physical tools and considered very raw coming out of a Georgia high school, so the fact that he's walked 68 times in 627 plate appearances is a pleasant surprise. He's managed just six homers through 153 games, but Goodrum has shown decent pop with 26 doubles and 11 triples. As his 6-foot-3 frame fills out he should convert some of those gappers into homers, although that same maturation may keep him from sticking at shortstop.

There are mixed opinions on where Goodrum's long-term home will be defensively, but it's worth noting that along with the improved power, walk rate, and strikeout rate as a hitter last season he also committed significantly fewer errors at shortstop. Whatever the case, as a switch-hitter and up-the-middle defender with good speed and a nice foundation on which to build offensively he's an intriguing 21-year-old.

16. J.T. Chargois | Reliever | DOB: 12/90 | Throws: Right | Draft: 2012-2

YEAR     LV      G     GS      ERA        IP       H     HR      SO     BB
2012     RK+    12      0     1.69      16.0      10      0      22      5

With the second of two compensatory draft picks for losing Michael Cuddyer to free agency the Twins selected Rice reliever J.T. Chargois, who prior to the draft Baseball America rated 77th and ESPN.com rated 64th. As a junior the right-handed Chargois threw 38 innings with a 2.15 ERA and 38-to-12 strikeout-to-walk ratio, teaming with Twins fifth-round pick Tyler Duffey to form an exceptional bullpen duo.

Chargois also played first base for Rice and hit .323 with a .411 on-base percentage, but he failed to homer in 51 games and there was never any doubt that his future was on the mound. ESPN's scouting report noted his mid-90s fastball, sharp-breaking slider, and high-effort delivery "that virtually demands he get to the majors as quickly as possible" and makes him "someone to sign and send right out to Double-A."

And yet because the Twins are incredibly conservative when it comes to pushing prospects they sent Chargois to rookie-ball for his pro debut at age 21. He predictably dominated Appalachian League hitters with a 1.69 ERA and 22-to-5 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 16 innings. Hopefully the Twins actually test Chargois with some decent competition this year, because while he's far from a sure thing letting him destroy inexperienced hitters seems like a waste of time.


This week's blog content is sponsored by Rotoworld's annual "Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide," which is available in both magazine and online versions. Please support them for supporting AG.com.

March 19, 2012

Top 40 Twins Prospects of 2012: 15, 14, 13, 12, 11

Also in this series: 1-5, 6-10, 16-20, 21-25, 26-30, 31-35, 36-40.

15. Madison Boer | Reliever | DOB: 12/89 | Throws: Right | Draft: 2011-2

YEAR     LV      G     GS      ERA        IP       H     HR      SO     BB
2011     RK+    15      0     2.60      17.1      13      1      31      2
         A-      8      0     6.75       8.0      12      0      12      1

During the previous 11 drafts the Twins used a first-round pick or supplemental first-round pick on a college pitcher 10 times and took at least one college pitcher within the first 75 picks each year but 2001, 2006, and 2007. Last year Madison Boer was their first college pitcher at No. 87 overall after the 6-foot-4 right-hander from Eden Prairie had a 2.27 ERA, .234 opponents' batting average, and 74-to-35 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 99 innings as a junior at Oregon.

Baseball America's pre-draft scouting report noted that Boer worked in the low-90s as a starter, but also spent time in the bullpen and was clocked as high as 96 miles per hour as a reliever. After signing for $405,000 he debuted at rookie-level Elizabethon and was quickly promoted to low Single-A Beloit, working exclusively as a reliever while combining to throw 25 innings with a 3.91 ERA and absurd 43-to-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio.

Experienced college pitchers dominating low-level competition is par for the course in the Twins' farm system, so Boer's performance this year will be much more telling. For now the Twins plan to give him an opportunity as a starter, where Boer projects as a potential mid-rotation option, but his early success and increased velocity as a reliever suggest his fastball-slider combo might find a more impactful long-term home in the bullpen.

14. Hudson Boyd | Starter | DOB: 10/92 | Throws: Right | Draft: 2011-1

Selected out of a Florida high school with the No. 55 overall pick in last year's draft that the Twins received as compensation for losing Jesse Crain as a free agent and signed away from the University of Florida for a $1 million bonus just before the deadline, Hudson Boyd was the first high school pitcher taken by the Twins with a first-round pick or supplemental first-round pick since Kyle Waldrop in 2004.

Boyd was part of the Twins' ongoing but thus far very inconsistent effort to add "power arms" to the organization, as Baseball America's pre-draft scouting report compared him to Jonathan Broxton and Bartolo Colon for mid-90s heat as much as a 6-foot-3, 235-pound frame. He signed too late to debut last season and figures to begin his professional career as a rookie-ball starter.

Without even throwing a professional pitch yet Boyd immediately becomes one of the highest-upside pitchers in the Twins' entire organization and his path to the big leagues could speed up considerably if he's eventually shifted to the bullpen. Whatever the case, he's certainly an against-type pick by the Twins and a prospect who could be much higher on this same list next year.

13. Travis Harrison | Third Base | DOB: 10/92 | Bats: Right | Draft: 2011-1

Last year the Twins used the supplemental first-round pick they received as compensation for losing Orlando Hudson as a free agent to select high school slugger Travis Harrison, a third baseman who became the first high school position player they've taken in the first round for his bat more than his tools since Chris Parmelee in 2006. Baseball America's pre-draft scouting report noted that Harrison "easily rates as the best high school bat" in California.

He was already 6-foot-2 and 215 pounds at age 18, so while Harrison was a third baseman in high school he could wind up shifting across the diamond or to an outfield corner. Jonathan Mayo said during MLB Network's draft coverage that Harrison has impressive power potential, but there are questions about his approach at the plate. Baseball America's take was similar, noting his "above-average power potential" but also his difficulty "adjusting to breaking balls."

For an organization largely devoid of power-hitting prospects after years of focusing on speed and athleticism in the draft a right-handed-hitting corner infielder with plenty of pop in his bat was certainly a welcome addition. Twins scouting director Deron Johnson called Harrison "the best bat left on the board" with the 50th pick and they signed him away from USC for a $1.05 million bonus shortly before the August 15 deadline, meaning he'll debut this season.

12. Chris Parmelee | First Base | DOB: 2/88 | Bats: Left | Draft: 2006-1

YEAR     LV      PA      AVG      OBP      SLG     HR    XBH     BB     SO
2009     A+     501     .258     .359     .441     16     44     65    109
2010     A+      93     .338     .430     .463      2      5     13     11
         AA     463     .275     .341     .389      6     33     43     70
2011     AA     610     .287     .366     .436     13     48     68     94
         MLB     88     .355     .443     .592      4     10     12     13

Chris Parmelee was the 20th overall pick in the 2006 draft and through his first four seasons was a rare Twins prospect with power and plate discipline. He also struck out a ton and batted just .250, so two years ago the Twins overhauled his approach at the plate to sacrifice homers and walks for contact and singles. He went from hitting .250 with a .200 Isolated Power and 26 percent strikeouts to hitting .285 with a .135 Isolated Power and 15 percent strikeouts.

That change is dramatic and no doubt raised his stock within the organization, but Parmelee's overall production remained mediocre and a first baseman slugging just .416 with 19 homers in 253 games at Double-A isn't encouraging. However, when pressed into action by the Twins' numerous injuries and promoted from Double-A to the big leagues in September he hit .355 with four homers, six doubles, and nearly as many walks (12) as strikeouts (13) in 21 games.

Parmelee looked great in September, showing power and patience and just about everything else you'd want to see from a 23-year-old, but 21 impressive games in the majors don't wipe away 653 underwhelming games in the minors and there are plenty of questions about him being more than an adequate regular. Parmelee has yet to play at Triple-A, so he'll likely begin this season in Rochester while the Twins find out if Justin Morneau can stay in the lineup.

11. Adrian Salcedo | Starter | DOB: 4/91 | Throws: Right | Sign: Dominican

YEAR     LV      G     GS      ERA        IP       H     HR      SO     BB
2009     RK-    11     10     1.46      61.2      60      1      58      3
2010     RK+    16      8     3.27      66.0      55      3      65     10
         A+      6      6     6.26      27.1      42      3      16      8
2011     A-     29     20     2.93     135.0     131      4      92     27

Adrian Salcedo has been pounding the strike zone since the Twins signed him out of the Dominican Republic as a 16-year-old in 2007, walking just 56 batters in 355 innings despite generally being young for the level of competition. That alone is enough to make him a solid prospect, particularly since his raw stuff features a low-90s fastball, but Salcedo's upside is in question because his strikeouts have vanished.

He had 8.7 strikeouts per nine innings in rookie-ball, but has managed just 5.9 strikeouts per nine innings at Single-A. That includes 92 strikeouts in 135 innings at low Single-A last season, which is the only thing that keeps his 2.93 ERA for Beloit as a 20-year-old from being extremely impressive. Salcedo didn't miss many bats, but he issued just 1.8 walks per nine innings and served up only four homers in 562 plate appearances.

Salcedo is 6-foot-4 and skinny, throws relatively hard already, and gets praise for his solid off-speed stuff, so there's reason to be optimistic about him adding a couple more miles per hour while upping his strikeout rate. If that happens he has No. 2 starter potential, but barring that he looks like a future mid-rotation starter who fits the Twins' preferred pitching mold perfectly.

August 19, 2011

Twins Notes: 600, concussions, missed flights, debuts, and naming later

Jim Thome ruined the Twins' plans to have him reach 600 career home runs at Target Field by being too damn good, hitting his 599th and 600th homers Monday night in Detroit and then delivering No. 601 against the Tigers two nights later. Thome has been deserving of the Hall of Fame for years already, but hopefully becoming the eighth member of the 600-homer club will ensure his place in Cooperstown. With the way he's hitting, though, that can probably wait.

Thome hasn't been able to duplicate his ridiculous 2010 numbers, but he's having one of the greatest seasons in baseball history by a 40-year-old. In fact, last season his .283/.412/.627 line added up to the fourth-highest adjusted OPS+ of all time by a 39-year-old and this season his .259/.365/.513 line would be tied for the fourth-highest adjusted OPS+ from a 40-year-old. Here are the age-39 and age-40 leaderboards for adjusted OPS+:

AGE 39           YEAR     PA    OPS+        AGE 40           YEAR     PA    OPS+
Barry Bonds      2004    617    263         Willie Mays      1971    537    158
Ted Williams     1958    517    179         Carlton Fisk     1988    298    155
Hank Aaron       1973    465    177         Edgar Martinez   2003    603    141
JIM THOME        2010    279    161         JIM THOME        2011    226    139
Babe Ruth        1934    471    161         Dave Winfield    1992    670    137

If you're curious, here's the adjusted OPS+ leaderboard among 41-year-olds:

AGE 41           YEAR     PA    OPS+
Ted Williams     1960    390    190
Barry Bonds      2006    493    156
Brian Downing    1992    391    138
Stan Musial      1962    505    137
Carlton Fisk     1989    419    136

I'd love to see Thome take a run at that list in 2012 for the Twins and even in a part-time role he'd move past Sammy Sosa for seventh place on the homer list. My favorite stat: Babe Ruth and Barry Bonds are the only hitters with more homers and more walks than Thome.

• Two weeks ago Denard Span came off the disabled list despite admitting that he wasn't fully recovered from a June 3 concussion, saying that he felt it was time to simply play through the symptoms after spending two months on the sidelines. He struggled on a rehab assignment at Triple-A and that continued with the Twins, as Span went 2-for-35 (.057) with three times as many strikeouts as walks before being shut down again with migraines and dizziness.

According to trainer Rick McWane "this is something very similar" to his 2009 bout with vertigo and "the concussion stirred up a previous existing condition." Various medications failed and left Span with side effects, making it likely that he'll miss the remainder of the season. Worse, much like Justin Morneau coming into this season, Span may enter 2012 as a major question mark. Unfortunately for Span and Morneau being tough won't help you get over a brain injury.

Luke Hughes was recalled from Rochester to take Span's roster spot and the short-handed Twins would've started him last night versus left-hander CC Sabathia and the Yankees, except Hughes missed his flight to Minneapolis because he was at the wrong gate. Seriously. Michael Cuddyer and Matt Tolbert were on the active roster but injured and Jason Kubel wasn't with the team due to a personal matter, which forced Ron Gardenhire to get creative.

Gardenhire had exactly nine healthy players at his disposal, including a 40-year-old designated hitter and a pair of catchers, so he wrote out a lineup that included Joe Mauer in the outfield for the first time since high school. Mauer will surely never get the same type of endless praise that the local media gives Cuddyer for his willingness to play other positions, but he's looked good at first base since returning from the disabled list and was decent in right field too.

• It turns out the "later" in player to be named later was around 48 hours, as the Tigers sent 23-year-old right-hander Lester Oliveros to the Twins to complete the Delmon Young trade. At the time of the deal a source told me the PTBNL would be "nobody special" and Oliveros fits the description, but he's not without promise. His fastball averaged 94.5 miles per hour in nine games for the Tigers and he's got 93 strikeouts in 72 innings between Double-A and Triple-A.

Oliveros' mid-90s velocity and outstanding strikeout rate also comes with poor control, as he's walked 43 batters in those 72 frames. Tons of strikeouts, tons of walks, and a big-time fastball make Oliveros appear similar to a younger version of Jim Hoey, which is intended as a positive thing despite the actual Hoey flopping with the Twins earlier this year. Oliveros may eventually do the same, but he also has a chance to be a quality reliever as soon as next season.

• It went down to the wire, but the Twins got first-round pick Levi Michael and supplemental first-round picks Hudson Boyd and Travis Harrison signed before Monday's deadline. Michael received $1.175 million, which is right about the MLB-recommend "slot" bonus for a 30th pick, but Boyd and Harrison each signed for around $1 million when the slot amounts for their picks were $700,000 and $650,000. As always, it's good to see the Twins spending on the draft.

Kevin Mulvey, who the Twins acquired from the Mets as part of the Johan Santana deal and then traded to the Diamondbacks for Jon Rauch in mid-2009, was designated for assignment by Arizona. He's allowed 24 runs in 27 innings as a major leaguer and the 26-year-old former second-round pick has posted increasingly poor results at Triple-A, including a 6.98 ERA and 44-to-37 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 80 innings there this year.

• Gardenhire was asked about the 2012 middle infield during a recent interview on 1500-ESPN and specifically mentioned Brian Dozier, a 2008 eighth-round pick who began this season as a 24-year-old at high Single-A and is now playing at Double-A. Dozier is having a very nice year, hitting .317/.397/.465 with nearly as many walks (46) as strikeouts (55) in 108 games, but has just four homers and batted just .275/.350/.349 between two levels of Single-A last season.

• No decision has been made yet on Kyle Gibson's possible Tommy John surgery, as the 2009 first-round pick has decided to get a second opinion next week from the doctor who performed Joe Nathan's elbow surgery in March of 2010.

Ben Revere has made too many outs atop the lineup, but at least some are exciting outs.

• Last night's game against the Yankees wasn't much fun, but this MLB.com headline made me laugh: "Long balls trip up Duensing." In related news, I'm a 28-year-old child.

• Thanks to everyone who listened to the first episode of my "Gleeman and The Geek" podcast with John Bonnes. We weren't sure what to expect, but the download count and the feedback have been extremely encouraging and our plan is to record one new episode a week. You can now subscribe to the podcast on iTunes or download it via the website, so please help spread the word. And if anyone with some design skills has an idea for a good logo, let me know.

This week's content is sponsored by the Minnesota law firm Snyder Gislason Frasier LLC, so please help support AG.com by considering them for your legal needs.

June 7, 2011

UNC shortstop Levi Michael leads Twins’ against-type first-round picks

Hoping the Twins take a college middle infielder while expecting them to pick toolsy high school outfielders and strike-throwing college pitchers has become a pre-draft tradition in this space, so imagine my shock last night when they selected North Carolina shortstop Levi Michael with the 30th overall pick and then went further against the grain in the supplemental round with high school slugger Travis Harrison at No. 50 and high school pitcher Hudson Boyd at No. 55.

Not only is Michael the first college middle infielder selected by the Twins in the first round or supplemental first round since LSU second baseman Todd Walker way back in 1994, they last used a first-round pick on a college hitter of any position for Clemson catcher Matthew LeCroy in 1997. Michael alone represents a radical shift in draft strategy for the Twins and Boyd is also the first high school pitcher they've taken in the first round since Kyle Waldrop in 2004.

As a three-year college starter who figures to move through the system quickly Michael fills an obvious need for the Twins, as they've long struggled to develop middle infielders and are very short on MLB-ready help up the middle right now. Drafting for need is normally a mistake, but in this case he's also considered a clear first-round talent who many mock drafts had coming off the board in the 20-25 range. ESPN pegged him as "the top college shortstop in the class."

Baseball America ranked Michael as the 22nd-best player in the draft, noting that "he's been a reliable defender at all three [infield] spots and scouts are warming up to the idea that he could stay at shortstop at the pro level." He's had a disappointing junior year at the plate after a monster sophomore campaign, but that was partly due to an ankle injury and Michael still hit .297 with a .444 on-base percentage and more walks (47) than strikeouts (41) in 60 games.

Overall in three years as a full-time player at North Carolina the switch-hitting Michael batted .310/.440/.520 with 27 homers, 81 total extra-base hits, and a 123-to-117 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 191 games, stealing 40 bases in 47 attempts and adding to his on-base percentage by leaning into 45 pitches. Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus and ESPN noted that Michael has "solid tools across the board" with "great instincts and no real weaknesses in his game."

There are some questions about his power potential and range, but the Twins did very well to address an obvious area of short- and long-term need with a consensus first-round talent who should move quickly. As a switch-hitting college middle infielder with a strong track record and standout plate discipline Michael is exactly the type of player I've been hoping the Twins would target seemingly every June for the past decade. On paper at least, it's an ideal pick.

Harrison and Boyd are much different picks than Michael, as they're both years from potentially entering the Twins' plans and represent bigger risks along with sizable upsides. Harrison isn't quite as against type for the Twins as Michael or Boyd, but he's the first high school position player they've taken in the first round for his bat more than his tools since Chris Parmelee in 2006. According to Baseball America he "easily rates as the best high school bat" in California.

He's already 6-foot-2 and 215 pounds at 18, so while Harrison played third base in high school he may end up shifting across the diamond or to left field. Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com reported during the draft coverage on MLB Network that Harrison has impressive power potential, but there are questions about his approach at the plate. Baseball America's take is similar, noting his "above-average power potential" but also his difficulty "adjusting to breaking balls."

For an organization largely devoid of power-hitting prospects after years of focusing on speed and athleticism in the draft a right-handed-hitting corner infielder with plenty of pop in his bat is certainly a welcome addition and while 50th overall is slightly higher than most projections Harrison is generally ranked as a top-100 player. Twins scouting director Deron Johnson called Harrison "the best bat left on the board" and they'll have to sign him away from USC.

Michael addresses the lack of middle infield depth, Harrison brings some much-needed power, and Boyd is the latest move in the Twins' ongoing effort to add high-velocity arms to a system largely populated by finesse guys. Baseball America compared him to Jonathan Broxton and Bartolo Colon for mid-90s heat as much as a 6-foot-3, 235-pound frame and Jason Churchill of ESPN says Boyd may wind up as a late-inning reliever if his off-speed stuff doesn't develop.

This week's content is sponsored by the Minnesota law firm Snyder Gislason Frasier LLC, so please help support AG.com by considering them for your legal needs.